Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 13

Matt Fargo

Illinois Chicago vs. Oregon State
Play: Illinois Chicago +17

Many will expect Oregon St. to bounce back here following a home loss to Idaho in the aftermath of the tragic death of football player Fred Thompson. While that certainly may happen, this line is completely out of control. These teams met last season a little less than a year ago in this very same venue and the Beavers were favored by seven points and now the line has jumped an additional 10 points. Oregon St. won that game by 20 points but this is clearly an overadjusted number that has value all over the visitors. The Beavers are not expected to compete in the Pac 12 this season despite possessing electrifying guard Jared Cunningham. This is a lower-tiered team with too many holes and a defense that is unable to stop anybody, similar to last season. Oregon St. did hold two teams to 46 points but it is still allowing 65.6 ppg on 45.6 percent shooting including 39.8 percent shooting from long range. The Beavers had covered four straight games prior to Friday and now they are favored by their biggest amount this year. Like Oregon St., Illinois-Chicago is not expected to do a while lot in its own conference either. The Flames are already off to a 0-2 start in the Horizon League but both of those losses came on the road and by a combined five points, the latter defeat coming in overtime. They have been very competitive for the most part and while the Beavers are laying their biggest number, the Flames are receiving their biggest number on the season. They have covered five of their last seven games as underdogs of 13 or more points. The difference in last season's meeting was the fact that Oregon St. committed only six turnovers while Illinois-Chicago got to the free throw line only eight times. Those two factors were big and they should even out this year. The Beavers have been bad when trying to recover from big losses as they are 4-20 ATS in their last 24 home games coming off a double-digit home loss so the situation of a bounceback is certainly not in play on Tuesday.

David Chan

San Jose Sharks @ Colorado Avalanche
PICK: San Jose Sharks

The 15-10-2 San Jose Sharks swim into Colorado to take on the 13-16-1 Avalanche.

The Sharks have struggled of late, but have a big opportunity to get back on track against a stumbling Avs team.

San Jose is coming off a tough 3-2 OT loss to Chicago on Sunday, which marked its second straight setback and sixth in eight games:

“We played against a very good team and did very well for two periods,” coach Todd McLellan said. “It was pretty evident that one team have played three games in four nights and the other was fresh.

“We ran out of gas a little bit in the third and we lost a number of key faceoffs in the third period that allowed them to start with the puck and play in our end.”

The Avs are coming off a 4-1 setback to Edmonton on Friday and have been outscored 13-3 over their last three losses:

“We got caught out of position too many times and they took advantage of it,” Milan Hejduk said after the loss. “We need to play with more pride. We didn’t execute. … We have to have a hard look in the mirror and bounce back.”

Easier said than done against the Sharks though, as San Jose has long-owned this series; the Avs have managed just two goals in three straight losses to the Sharks.

San Jose is in fact 4-0-1 in its last five trips to Colorado.

I'm going to lay the short price and expect this underachieving Sharks team to kick Colorado while it's down!

Nick Parsons

New Jersey Devils @ Florida Panthers
PICK: Florida Panthers

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:

The Devils are 15-13-0-1; they're coming off a hard-fought 5-4 win at Tampa Bay last night (I was on the Devils).

Martin Brodeur is scheduled between the pipes for the visitors; the veteran has allowed two goals in each of his last three starts.

On the other bench: The Panthers are 16-9-2-3; they're coming off back to back losses to end their road trip, including a 6-1 setback to the Rangers on Sunday.

Scott Clemmensen will be between the pipes for the home side; Clemmensen is 3-0-0 with a 2.36 GAA vs. New Jersey.

Bottom line: Since losing four in a row, the Panthers are 4-0-1 at the BankAtlantic Center; I think a little "home-cooking" is just what the doctor ordered for Florida, benefitting as well by catching a Devils team that played just 24 hours previous; consider laying the price!

Jim Feist

Cal Irvine vs Wyoming
Pick: Cal Irvine

Cal Irvine gets up to play good teams, as the Anteaters are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. After a rough start Irvine is getting it together, winning 2 in a row scoring 99 and 75 points, and the Anteaters are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Wyoming is on a 7-game win streak, slowing the pace down and playing defense. The visitors have more than enough offense to hang within this number. Play Cal Irvine.

Rocketman

Illinois Chicago @ Oregon State
Play: Oregon State -16.5

Illinois Chicago is 2-8 ATS last 3 years after allowing 60 points or less. Oregon State is 15-5 ATS last 3 years after a non-conference game. Illinois Chicago is 0-4 SU on the road this year while Oregon State is 4-1 SU at home this season. Oregon State is scoring 78.4 points per game at home this year while allowing 62.8 points per game at home this season. Flames are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Flames are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Beavers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Beavers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Beavers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Beavers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Beavers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games. We'll recommend a small play on Oregon State tonight!

JEFF BENTON

Your Tuesday freebie is to go with Minnesota at home over Central Michigan.

On Saturday I gave you a comp play winner on Minnesota as they crushed St. Peter's, and I think the Golden Gophers at home minus the double-digits tonight is another solid wager as they take on a 4-4 Chippewas team that comes to the Williams Arena fresh off back-to-back road losses at Temple and Tennessee State.

Minnesota has beefed up on their non-conference slate, as Tubby Smith's team stands at 10-1 straight up, and they have covered in two of their last three outings. For the season, the Gophers are 3-1 against the spread at home.

Third straight road game for the Chipps, versus the fifth straight home game for the Golden Gophers. It all adds up to a home court blowout win for Minny.

Lay the lumber as Minnesota chalks up another home win and cover tonight.

4♦ MINNESOTA

SPORTS WAGERS

Vancouver -½ -110 over COLUMBUS

After a decent run that saved Scott Arniel’s job for the time being, the Blue Jackets are back to their losing ways. They’ve lost three of their past four games and have not won in regulation time in seven straight. What’s more interesting is that the coach has decided to go with goaltender Steve Mason here. Mason has been on the bench for the past 12 games after posting a 3-12-1 record with a 3.63 goals-against average and meager .875 save percentage. Mason’s confidence has been shattered (and his play has been awful) for two years running so it’s rather curious as to why Arniel decided to go with him against the Canucks when the offensively challenged Kings are in town on Thursday. Vancouver has scored 24 times over its last five games and has scored at least four times in all of those. They’re the hottest team in the NHL, they’re an elite club and they should have little trouble disposing of these Jackets. Play: Vancouver -½ -107 (Risking 2.20 units to win 2).

N.Y. Islanders +230 over MONTREAL (3-way betting line)

What we have here is perhaps the league’s biggest underachiever’s against a Montreal team that is thin on talent everywhere but in goal. Montreal has three wins in its last nine games. One of those was in OT and the other two were decided by a goal. The Canadiens are not capable of blowing away teams and they’re very capable of losing to anyone. Carey Price is to Montreal what Peyton Manning is to the Colts. Meanwhile, the undervalued Islanders got off to an awful start and most of it was goaltender related. That problem has been addressed with Al Montoya (2.43 GAA, .910 save %) offering stability at the all-important position. The Islanders had won four of five and picked up points in all five games before losing to Chicago and Pittsburgh in their past two games. The Isles’ last five losses were against Chicago twice, Pittsburgh twice and Philadelphia, all elite teams and they take a huge step down in class here. Big overlay. Play: N.Y. Islanders +230 (Risking 2 units).

Ottawa +230 over BUFFALO (3-way betting line)

The Senators are in a bit of a funk but that coincided with a nasty schedule that saw them playing six games in 10 days. Ottawa has shown terrific resiliency all season long, bouncing back time and time again when they weren’t supposed to. This is a underrated and undervalued club that is worth backing at these prices because they’re not going away and should remain in the playoff picture throughout. The Sens love coming to the rink again and they come in here rested and should be raring to go after that rough stretch. The Sabres need fixing. They have two ugly wins in their past six games. In the first win of that pair they were outshout 34-14 in Nashville and in the second win they mustered 20 shots on net against Florida. Since Nov. 25th, Buffalo is averaging just 2.25 goals per game and they’re on a 2-28 rut on the power-play. The Sabres heads aren’t in this thing for some reason and that was never more evident than on Saturday night against the Rangers when they surrendered two shorthanded goals. Buffalo is a team in trouble and until they wortk it out, we’ll keep fading them. Play: Ottawa +230 (Risking 2 units).

San Jose -½ +117 over COLORADO

The Sharks conclude their brief three-game road trip here after losing the first two. Their stock is low with just two wins in their last eight games and that provides us with a take-back opportunity for them to win in regulation and one we’re happy to jump on. San Jose has as many quality players as just about anyone. Its two losses on this trip were to St. Louis and Chicago, the latter in OT. They played well enough to win twice but instead lost twice and they’ll dig down deep tonight to salvage something out of this trip and they couldn’t have handpicked a better team to take its frustrations out on. The Avalanche are not a physical or big team. They constantly lose the battles for pucks and against elite teams they’re simply outclassed. Colorado also returns home from the dreaded three-game trip to Western Canada in which they lost all three and were outscored 13-3. No excuses for the superior club here in a game that sets up nicely for them. Play: San Jose -½ +117 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles +147 over BOSTON

John Stevens takes over the coaching duties from Terry Murray and perhaps the uninspiring efforts from these Kings will take a turn for the better. This was supposed to be a year that L.A was to make some noise but a slow start has them off the radar at the moment. Two positive angles come into play here with the first one being the first game for a new coach. The second profitable angle is playing a team in the first game of a trip, as they usually play its best game in an effort to “set the tone”. The Bruins have been more beatable at TD Center (10-6) than they’ve been on the road (8-3). They’ll also play this one without Zdeno Chara. Chara plays about 33 minutes a game and his loss is akin to an NFL team losing its #1 QB. The B’s are always tough and this is certainly no cakewalk for the Kings. What it is, however, is an opportunity to right this ship and you can expect the Kings to play one of its best games of the season. Play: Los Angeles +147 (Risking 2 units).

TORONTO -½ -104 over Carolina

Most losing NHL teams have some hope and plenty to build on for the future. The Hurricanes have very little hope. The toll that losing takes on a team without hope has hit the ‘Canes hard. They’ve lost eight of nine with only win over that span occurring against Edmonton. Carolina continues to allow more quality scoring chances than any team in the NHL and it’s not close. The Hurricanes have two high-end talent players on the whole roster, Jeff Skinner and Eric Staal. Skinner leads the team in goals with 12 and the closest player to him has seven. That’s disturbing and to make matters worse, Skinner is on the rack and will miss this game. Also note that the ‘Canes will play their fourth straight on the road after playing in Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg. The Leafs are coming off back-to-back losses to New Jersey and Washington but don’t put too much emphasis on that. They were the better team against both of those clubs but came out on the short end. The Leafs have been beating up on weaker teams all season long, they’ve beaten plenty of quality clubs too and there’s nothing to suggest that won’t continue here. Play: Toronto -½ -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

DAVID BANKS

Wisconsin / Wisconsin Milwaukee Under

A Dairy State battle is lined up for Tuesday night when the Wisconsin Badgers (8-2, 6-1 ATS) make the short trip to Milwaukee to take on the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (8-2, 2-5 ATS) in their annual rivalry game; tip-off from US Cellular Arena is set to go live on ESPN3 at 8:00 ET.

Since dropping back to back games to both the North Carolina Tar Heels and Marquette Golden Eagles, head coach Bo Ryan's 15th ranked Wisconsin Badgers have posted a pair of impressive home win and covers against Wisconsin Green Bay and UNLV. In doing so, Wiscy improved its record to 6-1 SU & 3-1 ATS as a host after guard Ben Brust came off the bench and erupted for a game-high 25 points on 8-of-9 shooting from the field which included a perfect 7-of-7 effort from beyond the arc. Though the Badgers score an average of just 68.1 PPG (#175) and shoot 44.8 percent from the field (#128), they’ve lit it up from downtown scorching the nylon to the tune of a 40.2% shooting percentage (#31). Per usual, the defense has clamped down on the opposition allowing just 44.9 PPG (#1) and a field-goal percentage of just 33.5% (#3). The Badgers have ventured away from Madison only three times this season beating both Bradley and Brigham Young on neutral courts before falling at North Carolina 60-57 (+7) in their only true road game of the season.

Though Wisconsin-Milwaukee sports an identical 8-2 SU record like tonight’s opponent, the schedule it’s taken on has been less than daunting. In fact, of their 10 games played to date, only seven of them had lines posted and the Panthers went on to cover the closing number in only two of those contests. They enter tonight's battle off a bludgeoning at the hands of Northern Iowa whom they fell to by a 67-51 final count as 7.5 point McLeod Center underdogs. Though they limited the Panthers to just 37 percent shooting from the floor, they turned it over 15 times to Northern Iowa’s six, and allowed the hosts to convert nine of 19 shots from beyond the arc. That came as quite a shock for WI-MIL who has done a solid job defending the 3-ball allowing only a 25 percent conversion rate (#12) heading into tonight's game. With the Badgers offense living and dying by the three, it would be best for head coach Rob Jeter’s kids to rediscover its ability to limit the opposition from long range. The Panthers have won all five of their home games on the year (1-1 ATS).

Tonight's matchup marks the first time that Wisconsin Milwaukee has hosted a ranked nonleague opponent since 1997. The Badgers have dominated this series winning 27 of the 28 all-time meetings with the Panthers and enter having won 18 in a row. Wiscy has won each of the L/5 meetings by nearly 19 PPG with the ‘under’ cashing for total bettors in each of those contests. The Badgers have covered six of their last seven non-conference games, but the Panthers are 5-2 ATS following their last seven SU defeats as well as 7-3 ATS versus the L/10 +.500 opponents they’ve faced.

NHL Predictions

Hurricanes / Maple Leafs Over 5.5

A coaching change hasn’t done much good for the Hurricanes, who have lost 8 of their last 9 games. The Hurricanes are just 9-18-4 on the season, and just 4-9-2 on the road. Toronto has had struggled of their own recently, losing 4 of their last 5 games. Toronto is 15-11-3 on the season and 6-4-3 at home. On the season the Hurricanes are averaging 2.5 goals per game, but are giving up 3.42 goals against. In their last 5 games the Hurricanes are averaging a high 3.60 goals per game, but are giving up 4.40 goals against. The Maple Leafs are averaging 3 goals per game on the season, but are giving up 3.21 goals against per game (and 3.46 per game at home). Over their last 5 games the Leafs are giving up 3.80 goals against per game. Cam Ward is 9-13-3 for the Hurricanes with a high 3.37 GAA and .896 SV%. Leafs James Reimer is 4-2-2 with a 2.96 GAA and .896 SV%. Take note that the OVER is 4-1 in the Hurricanes last 5 games, and 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games. The OVER is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Maple Leafs games have gone OVER the posted total in 6 of their last 8 games overall, and the OVER is 7-2 in their last 9 home games. The OVER is also 8-3 in their last 11 games vs a team with a winning % below .400. These two teams played to a 3-2 score earlier this season in Carolina, but the OVER is 6-2-1 in their last 9 meetings in Toronto. Both teams have been allowing a lot of goals per game, and neither is really struggling scoring. I like the value on the OVER here.

Calgary Flames +135

Calgary has been playing good hockey as of late, winning 3 straight, 4 of their lat 5, and 6 of their last 8 games (with points in 7 of their last 8). Their recent stretch of good hockey has gotten them back into things in the West with their 14-13-2 record. They are 6-8 on the road this season. Nashville on the other hand have won 2 straight, but have won just 4 of their last 11 games. At home Nashville is just 5-5-3 on the year, and they are just 1-4 in their last 5 home games. These two teams have met twice this season, both times in Calgary. In the first meeting the Flames outplayed the Predators and outshot them 33-14 but lost 2-0. In the second meeting the Flames won 1-0. Take note that the Flames have won 5 of these two teams last 6 meetings, and has beaten the Preds in 6 straight meetings in Nashville. If you look at the two starting goalies Kiprusoff has been better than Rinne as of late. Rinne has allowed less than 3 goals against just twice in his last 9 starts. Kiprusoff has won 4 straight starts, and hasn’t lost in regulation in his last 6 starts (which includes a shutout against the Predators on November 29th). Calgary is playing better hockey recently and have had Nashville’s number – including meetings in Nashville. Take the Flames at a generous underdog price tonight.

Steve Janus

Wyoming -15½

My money is on Wyoming to cover a big spread at home over Cal Irvine. The Cowboys proved that they were as legit as their record with a 65-54 win at Colorado last Friday. They are now 9-1 on the season and come into tonight's game riding a 7-game winning streak.

The Cowboys went out and brought back head coach Larry Shyatt, who coached at Wyoming back during the 1997-98 season. That year he led Wyoming to a 19-9 record, and you don't have to look hard to see what he is doing to a team that finished just 10-21 in 2010. The success of Shyatt and the Cowboys over the first 10 games has created a huge buzz in Laramie, which has brought life back to Arena-Auditorium, which use to be one of the most intimidating places to play in college basketball.

Wyoming has opened up a perfect 8-0 straight up at home and are also a perfect 5-0 against the spread. They are winning by an average score of 71-49, which gives us some breathing room against Cal Irvine.

The way these two teams stack up, it all points to a huge blowout win tonight. Cal Irvine averages just 61.6 ppg on 35.4% shooting on the road, and will face a Wyoming defense that is holding opponents to just 50 ppg on 36% shooting. Look for the Cowboys to jump out to an early lead and coast to an easy win!

Wyoming is 14-3 ATS in home lined games over the last 2 seasons, 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 3 seasons, and a perfect 6-0 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less this season.

Ben Burns

Minnesota Wild @ Winnipeg
PICK: Winnipeg

The line has come down on the Jets; I feel that's providing us with fair value.

Admittedly, the Wild are on a very impressive run. Tonight, marks the final leg of a 5-game road trip though. Having already achieved far more than they could have ever hoped on this trip AND with a home showdown with the Blackhawks on deck tomorrow, I won't be surprised if the Wild have a bit of a letdown here.

Playing the second of back to back games, the Jets were beaten soundly at Detroit last time out. However, their previous four games all came here at Winnipeg and they were a perfect 4-0 in those games.

Back home and having had some time off to recuperate, I expect the Jets to bounce back with a much better effort. Note that the Jets are 5-2 after scoring one or fewer goals in their previous game.

Despite their recent run of road success, the Wild are still a dismal 23-42 (-11) the past few seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5.

On the other hand, the Jets are already a profitable 9-3 (+7.4) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. They're also 4-1 when playing with two day's rest in between games. They've had some recent success (when they were the Thrashers) as a host in this series, most recently a 5-1 "home" win last November. Consider Winnipeg.

Sean Murphy

Los Angeles Kings @ Boston Bruins
PICK: Boston Bruins

The Kings fired head coach Terry Murray on Monday, but I think it's going to take more than a coaching change to turn the tide in the City of Angels.

Keep in mind, this is coming from a guy that's been a big supporter of the Kings, not only this season, but during the 2010-11 campaign as well. I just don't see that same spark from this team right now, and Tuesday's matchup in Boston doesn't look like an ideal spot to begin the turnaround.

L.A. has scored just six goals during its current four-game losing streak. A lack of offensive punch is nothing new, as the Kings have been held to two goals or less in eight straight contests.

The reason we're still able to grab some value with the Bruins in this spot is because the Kings have won five consecutive meetings in this series. It's worth noting that four of those came by way of overtime or a shootout, so it's not as if the B's have been outclassed. In fact, Boston has outshot Los Angeles in each of their last three matchups.

An injury to Zdeno Chara has also been factored into the line. He's expected to miss a week due to a knee injury suffered on Saturday, but I don't believe his absence costs the B's in this particular spot.

The Bruins have the talent to 'flip the switch' at any given time, and we certainly saw that on Saturday night in Columbus. After getting off to a sluggish start and falling behind 2-0, the B's rallied, ultimately winning the game 5-3.

That victory snapped a mini two-game losing streak. After getting shutout in their last home game against the Panthers, you can bet that the Bruins will be eager to make amends in front of the home faithful on Tuesday.

Boston has made things tough on visitors this season, averaging over 3.1 goals per game on 35 shots per contest while allowing just under 2.2 gpg on 29.3 shots here at the Garden. The B's have won eight of their last 10 games on home ice.

The Kings will have a much better opportunity to snap out of their slump on Thursday night in Columbus. Tonight marks their first stop on a four-game eastern road swing, and I don't expect a favorable result.

Teddy Covers

Florida Atlantic @ Mississippi State
PICK: Mississippi State -14

Mississippi State finished 17-14 last year and didn’t play in the postseason, a very disappointing season from Rick Stansbury’s squad. The season had no shortage of ugly losses, but one that really stands out: a 61-59 home loss to the Florida Atlantic Owls as double digit home favorites. They played that game without a trio of key contributors, including point guard Dee Bost and their two big men Renardo Sidney and Arnett Moultrie. Sophomore guard Jalen Steele: “Revenge. That’s basically on my mind. Revenge. We’re going to go out focused and get this win.”

The Bulldogs are playing great basketball; winners of eight straight while going 6-1 ATS in their last seven ballgames. In their 106-68 win over Troy this past weekend, the Bulldogs had 30 assists on 40 made baskets, a clear sign of the positive chemistry and good offensive flow of this ballclub right now.

Florida Atlantic lacks a true center. Their biggest player is 6-8 forward Kore White; a very tough matchup for the Owls against the Sidney-Moultrie combination for the Bulldogs down low. The Owls were largely non-competitive in recent double digit road losses at South Florida and Kansas. They have a huge matchup against in-state rival Miami on deck for Saturday – the same Miami team that knocked them out of the NIT last year. Expect a blowout! Take Mississippi State

Andrew Lange

Central Michigan at Minnesota
Play: Central Michigan +17.5

This price is getting a little too rich for the type of game I expect in Minneapolis tonight. Since the injury to Trevor Mbakwe, Minnesota has slowed down its pace and produced four straight ugly wins in which the Gophers did a number on the opposition defensively. Last time out, they held bottom feeder St. Peter's to 47 points in a 22-point win. Impressive, but it is tough to consistently cover big pointspreads in such low scoring games. Central Michigan has showed more than I thought they would thus far. The Chippewas have scored a few so-so wins and have been blown out just once (78-49 vs. high powered New Mexico State). Last time out they blew a double-digit lead at Tennessee State so I expect a bounce-back effort tonight. They unquestionably will have a difficult time topping 60 points but with a total of 127.5, possessions are going to be limited and that favors the large underdog. I think CMU has enough to make this one halfway competitive and will take a shot catching +17.5.