WUNDERDOG
Carolina at Toronto
Pick: Carolina +155
The Carolina Hurricanes have been faltering badly of late, as they have but a single win to show for their last nine games. The good news is that it did come on this road trip, as they handled Edmonton 5-3. We also have a dormant offense is coming to life as they have scored 13 goals in their last three games, and own a win this season vs. this Toronto team in the only other time they have met. The Maple Leafs aren't exactly creating confidence when posted as a big favorite, as they have had their own problems recently, especially the 19 goals allowed over their last five games. Toronto is just 1-4 in those five games, dropping four straight in the role of a favorite. The Hurricanes have played very well here as they are 5-1 in their last six trips across the border to Toronto. Play on Carolina here.
Dave Price
1 Unit Dartmouth +10
It has been best to fade away when IUPU-Ft. Wayne is laying points at home. The Mastodons are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Fade the Mastodons.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Oregon State -18½
4 starters return from last year's Oregon State team, which crushed Illinois-Chicago by 20 points. Expect the Beavers to blow out the Flames again as they enter this contest extremely motivated following a bad upset loss to Idaho. The Beavers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Lay the points as Oregon State doesn't spare the Flames in this highly motivated spot.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit UC Santa Barbara -9½
Motivated by back-to-back overtime losses to quality San Diego State and UNLV squads, and chomping at the bit to get back on the court following a nearly two week layoff, expect the Gauchos to gouge the inferior Toreros this evening. San Diego lost by 12 at home to San Diego State and will have trouble keeping this one below that number against an experienced and talented UC Santa Barbara club. Consider that SD is only 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games versus excellent teams that shoot the ball at 45% or better and hold their foes to 42% shooting or worse. The Toreros have lost to these teams by an average of 19.3 points. San Diego has actually been one of the worst investments in recent years as it is just 13-38-1 ATS in its last 52 games overall. It is 10-29-1 ATS in its last 40 games as an underdog, 6-20 ATS in its last 26 home games and 4-22 ATS in its last 26 non-conference games. We'll take the Gauchos tonight.
Jack Jones
Wisconsin-Milwaukee +10½
Wisconsin-Milwaukee is a quality team this season at 8-2. Playing at home Tuesday, I believe they will give rival Wisconsin a run for their money. What's most impressive about their 8-2 mark is the fact that they've played five true road games. Their only two losses came at Michigan State and at Northern Iowa, two very good opponents.
Milwaukee is 5-0 at home this season, outscoring their opponents 67.6 to 52.8, or by an average of 14.8 points/game. Wisconsin is 8-2 as well, but they have only played one true road game all season. The Badgers have been blessed with a very favorable schedule in the early going despite playing a few quality opponents.
Wisconsin's 9.4 made 3's per game rank among the top 10 in the country. The Badgers, though, could be tested from long distance against a Panthers team holding opponents to just 25.0 percent from 3-point range. This is a Milwaukee team that gets after it defensively, limiting foes to 58.6 points and 38.9 percent shooting on the season. They also have five players scoring 9.3 or more points for a balanced attack offensively.
Milwaukee is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. Milwaukee is 32-14 ATS in their last 46 following a loss by 15 points or more. The Panthers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5. Bet Wisconsin-Milwaukee Tuesday.
Red Dog Sports
Drexel -3½ (1st half)
Drexel hasn't played well this year. They lost to Norfolk State on a neutral court. They have only had Chris Fouch available for 3 games and one game he was 0-9 from the field. In the last game vs. Princeton he was able to produce 23 points off the bench. Last year, at home, Drexel led Niagara by 44-15 at the half. Bruiser Flint's squad led by 29 points at the break last year vs. this team. They should be excited to be playing up in Niagara. Let's look at the Niagara Purple Aces. Here are their home halftime scores:
down 38-28 to Buffalo
down 44-22 to Iona
down 47-41 to Fairfield (yes, the Stags put up 47 in the first half!)
down 51-41 to Central Ct. (down 10 in a non-lined game)
This will be Drexel's chance to jump ahead early. The Dragons get 14 ppg from Massenat, 11.5 from Lee and 9 from Givens. Fouch and Abil should provide points too. Niagara does have Juan'ya Green, a 20 ppg scorer who is from Phiily, who should be motivated to play Drexel. He could get hot and keep the home team in it.
In some other games, Niagara was behind 45-22 to Missouri at the half and down 43-19 to Mercer at the break.
Here is Drexel's chance to jump ahead early vs. a bad defensive squad. It does concern me that this game is at Niagara but the scores listed above show that the road team is capable of getting an early lead at the break. GL!
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Minnesota Gophers to cover at home against Central Michigan.
The Gophers have adjusted to being without Trevor Mbakwe. Rodney Williams and Ralph Sampson III have led the way for the Gophers. Williams has been averaging seven points and Sampson has averaged nine points a game.
The big difference for the Gophers has been their change to a defensive-minded team. In their last four games, they have limited their opponents to under 60 points. At home, the Gophers allow an average of 53 points a game.
Central Michigan come into the game on a two-game losing streak, losing to Tennessee State 66-57. The Chippewas were held to 39 percent shooting from the field.
This is the third straight road game for the Chippewas as their could be a fatigue factor.
Minnesota’s defense will be the key here. Central Michigan will have trouble scoring and the rout will be on for the Gophers. Minnesota was 18-point favorites against St. Peter’s on Saturday and covered the spread.
Lay the points.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Matt Rivers
Your Tuesday free play winner is the Miss State Bulldogs to avenge last season's loss to the Florida Atlantic Owls.
Last season the Owls took advantage of a depleted Bulldogs team that was minus two of their starters, as both Dee Bost and Renardo Sidney did not play in a 61-59 road setback.
Both will be playing tonight at home as the 9-1 Bulldogs look to notch their 10th win of the season in front of the home faithful. Expect Miss State to treat their fans to a romp, as the Bulldogs have won their last eight games, including a 106-point performance versus Troy State over the weekend in a game in which all five of Rick Stansbury's starters scored in double-digits.
Florida Atlantic is just 4-5 on the season, and seven of those nine games have been played away from home. Another road game tonight for the Owls, and this one shapes up to be a pretty ugly end result for the Owls.
Take Miss State minus the points.
4♦ MISS STATE
Derek Mancini
For tonight's Free Play, I'm looking at the Golden Gophers to wipe the floor with the Chippewas. One look at the number and its plain to see that the guys in Vegas are suggesting that outcome as well. What's interesting about this number is not that it's double digits, that was expected. But rather, just how big the number is. I'm seeing a lot more even action that was to be expected because the public is looking for value. Big mistake.
So why lay this much with Minnesota? Two reasons. First, the Chippewas are incredibly inefficient on offense, shooting just 40% on the season. A lot of that has to do with their inability to effecitvely attack the basket, but overall they lack any scoring punch after top scorer Trey Ziegler. Moreover, with Sampson finally getting his act together against St Peter's, the Gophers frontline should be able to take advantage of a young and smallish Chippewas frontcourt.
Second, the Gophers own a tremendous advantage on defense, allowing just 53 ppg on 37% shooting at Williams Arena this season. Compare that to Central Michigan's road weary defense, which surrenders almost 70 ppg on the season, and all of a sudden you start to see a tremendous disparity between these two teams.
Finally, I know bettors still have mixed feeling about this Minnesota team without Mbakwe, and I don't blame you. However, every game that goes by without him the Gophers learn and different players step up (Sampson vs. St. Peter's for example). The oddsmakers are obviously factoring in his absence into this match up, so don't let your feelings about his injury cloud your judgement. Lay the points with Minnesota over Central Michigan Tuesday
2♦ MINNESOTA
Cajun Sports
Cal Santa Barbara vs. San Diego
Play: Under 136½
UCSB has gone Over in their four lined affairs this season and San Diego has been a .500 team when it comes to the total. A check of our situational database reveals two systems that are active for this game and they have records of 66-39 Under and 111-82 Under. San Diego is 13-2 Under in home games versus teams scoring 77 or more points per game. San Diego is 14-4 Under when the total is 130 to 139.5 the last 2 seasons. San Diego is 13-3 Under after playing a game as a home underdog the last 3 seasons. UCSB is 16-6 Under in road games after two or more consecutive games that went Over the posted total. UCSB is 49-30 Under after one or more consecutive losses. UCSB is 10-2 Under in road games after a combined score of 155 or more points. UCSB is 9-1 Under in road games after allowing 80 or more points. UCSB is 7-0 Under after allowing 85 or more points in their last game. Our TPR Index projects a final score of 129 for this contest. With solid situational and technical support for the Under we will play this one to fall well below the posted total.