Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 16

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Arizona State at Marquette
The Sun Devils head to Marquette tonight to face a Golden Eagles team that is coming off a 49-38 loss to Wisconsin and is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Arizona State is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+3)

Game 513-514: Drexel at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drexel 52.843; Buffalo 64.186
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-9 1/2)

Game 515-516: College of Charleston at Charlotte (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 48.920; Charlotte 61.073
Dunkel Line: Charlotte by 12
Vegas Line: Charlotte by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-8 1/2)

Game 517-518: Middle Tennessee State at Oklahoma State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 55.487; Oklahoma State 71.852
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 14
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-14)

Game 519-520: Arizona State at Marquette (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 64.600; Marquette 64.655
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Marquette by 3
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+3)

Game 521-522: Alabama at Wichita State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 63.509; Wichita State 73.580
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 10
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 13
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (+13)

Game 523-524: Oakland at Arizona (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 51.003; Arizona 80.649
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 29 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 25
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-25)

Game 525-526: North Carolina at NC-Greensboro (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 73.026; NC-Greensboro 48.200
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 25
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 20
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-20)

Game 527-528: Belmont at VCU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 55.835; VCU 72.450
Dunkel Line: VCU by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: VCU by 14
Dunkel Pick: VCU (-14)

Game 529-530: Dartmouth at Mercer (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 49.239; Mercer 51.021
Dunkel Line: Mercer by 2
Vegas Line: Mercer by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dartmouth (+4 1/2)

Game 531-532: East Tennessee State at Eastern Kentucky (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Tennessee State 50.646; Eastern Kentucky 58.584
Dunkel Line: Eastern Kentucky by 8
Vegas Line: Eastern Kentucky by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (-5 1/2)

Game 533-534: Oral Roberts at Oklahoma (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oral Roberts 56.806; Oklahoma 76.702
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 20
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 535-536: Akron at North Dakota State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 57.062; North Dakota State 56.262
Dunkel Line: Akron by 1
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Akron (+2)

Game 537-538: Tennessee State at Southern Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 42.167; Southern Illinois 54.129
Dunkel Line: Southern Illinois by 12
Vegas Line: Southern Illinois by 15
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (+15)

Game 539-540: Western Carolina at Vanderbilt (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 48.889; Vanderbilt 65.882
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 17
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-11 1/2)

Game 541-542: Northern Arizona at St. Mary's (CA) (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 49.664; St. Mary's (CA) 66.473
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 17
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (CA) (-13 1/2)

DAVE COKIN

NEW YORK RANGERS AT CALGARY FLAMES
PLAY: NEW YORK RANGERS -110

Metrics are big part of the equation for many baseball handicappers. That’s not so much the case in other sports, although the metric community is growing across the board. That’s clearly the case in the NHL, as there are now a wealth of stats available to get a truer read on teams that the old school base statistics can offer.

The Calgary Flames spent the first portion of the season causing metrics believers to just shake their heads on a regular basis. All the data said the Flames were getting lucky, but they just kept on winning. However, the regression to the norm is now taking place, and in a pretty big way.

The Flames have hit the skids of late, and they will enter tonight’s home game against the Rangers on a five game losing streak. The good breaks have ground to a halt, the goaltending has slumped and a team that was supposed to be pretty mediocre is now playing that way.

The Rangers are currently just barely in the Eastern Conference playoffs as far as the current standings are concerned, but they’re coming into tonight’s battle in decent form. The Broadway Blues will be looking to win for the fourth straight game, so they’re trending in the opposite direction of the Flames.

In breaking down some of the key categories, this is pretty much a sweep for the road team. The Rangers have the better overall data, they win the home/road showdown on the stat sheet, and they’re also owners of the better special teams, both 5×4 and 4×5. With the Flames now mired in their first slump of the season, I will look for the Rangers to cash a winning ticket at what is a very reasonable price tonight.

Cajun Sports

Dallas Mavericks vs. New York Knicks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -7

Play AGAINST NBA 4 to 9 point home underdogs coming off a su loss in which they covered the spread, 102-59-3 ats. Play ON Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday night. We won easily with the Boston Celtics on Monday night as they were the play on team over the 76ers winning 105 to 87 cashing another easy winner for this same system.

Rob Vinciletti

Dallas Mavericks vs. New York Knicks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -7

Dallas comes in here off a home loss on Saturday and are in a solid spot to rebound as they are 24-3 to the spread on the road off a dog loss. The Knicks are off a tough overtime loss to the Raptors on Sunday and have the case sense of security of thinking they can play with Dallas after losing a close game Down in Dallas last month. The Mavericks are the better team and will get the win and cover against a New York squad that struggles with winning teams.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Rocketman S

Arizona State @ Marquette
Play: Marquette -2

The Arizona State Sun Devils travel to Marquette to take on the Golden Eagles on Tuesday night. Arizona State is 6-3 SU overall this year while Marquette comes in with a 4-4 SU record on the season. Arizona State is 1-5 ATS against Big East opponents since 1997. Arizona State is 0-3 SU last 3 years as a road underdog of 3 points or less or a pick. Marquette is 106-63 ATS since 1997 and 3-0 ATS this year when playing good defensive teams allowing 64 points per game or less. Marquette is 30-6 SU at home the past 3 years. Arizona State is 0-3 SU on the road this year. We'll recommend a small play on Marquette tonight!

Rocky Atkinson's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets
Pick: Brooklyn Nets

Dwayne Wade might be the engine that drives this year's edition of the Miami Heat, but center Chris Bosh has been the heart and soul of this team as he's having a great season. Problem is, Bosh is doubtful for today's game at Brooklyn with a calf injury. Bosh is averaging 21.5 ppg, 8.17 rebounds and has 19 blocks. Wade played through an illness last week and if Bosh doesn't play, then a lot will fall to the guard's shoulders here tonight. The Heat are just 11-13 on the season while Brooklyn is 10-12, both not living up to expectations. Biggest problem for the Heat has been on defense where they have a 111.7 efficiency rating (league avg is 107.3). They are also well below the league pace average of 92.6 with a 88.1 rating (pace is possessions per 48 minutes). Brooklyn has been much better on defense, coming in below the league average, though they have struggled to just a 104.4 offensive average. The Heat have covered just twice in their last eight games. Brooklyn is bringing a two game win streak both S/U and ATS into tonight's contest. Brooklyn has also covered six of the last nine in this series. If Bosh doesn't play it's going to be a long night for the Heat.

Will Rogers

Lightning vs. Flyers
Play: Over 5½

A revitalized Philadelphia Flyers team is coming into this clash as winners of back-to-back games, scoring a total of nine goals. The Tampa Bay Lightning have dropped four of their last five and their usually so efficient offense has been nowhere to be seen. They've not had any problem scoring on Philly over recent meetings though, claiming five straight scoring four goals or more in each game. I think we'll see a high scoring tilt at Wells Fargo Center tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. The Flyers Power Play - Only the Penguins and the Capitals have a better conversion rate on the power play than the Flyers 24%. They've been particularly prolific as of late, finding the net in seven consecutive games while going 7-for-20 on the man advantage.

2. Road Woes - The Lightning have conceded 22 goals over their last six outside of Tampa, winning only one of those games.

3. X-Factor - Jakub Voracek is tied with Evegni Malkin for second place in the NHL with his 37 points. He has four points over his last three games, and he's likely to add to that total tonight.

Will Rogers's Featured Package

Matt Fargo

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: Memphis Grizzlies -2½

Golden St. is on an unprecedented run as it has won 16 consecutive games and its 21-2 start is tied for the third best 23-game start in NBA history. It looked as though its 15-game winning streak would be snapped last time out as the Warriors were down late against New Orleans but they came back to force overtime which they eventually won. The epic start includes a 13-1 record on the road with the last 10 games resulting in victories but tonight presents the biggest challenge over this stretch. Memphis has won four straight games including two straight overtime wins in its last two games and while that normally would be a red flag, the fact that the Grizzlies have had two days off negates any sort of fatigue factor. Memphis is 11-1 at home which is the best home record in the NBA and the only loss came against San Antonio where it was outscored 42-15 from long range. Going back further, the home edge for the Grizzlies has been solid as they are 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 home games against teams with a winning road record. The Warriors winning streak comes to an end tonight.

Matt Fargo's Featured Package

Bryan Power

Columbus vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit

Sometimes you have to be willing to lay a high asking price and such is the case here as the Red Wings host a Columbus team that has inexplicably won six games in a row. Prior to winning the six straight, not only did the Blue Jackets reside at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division, but the entire league as well w/ just 14 pts. Meanwhile, Detroit has lost three straight. Yet, despite the respective streaks, they are still heavily favored tonight. I look for a reversal of recent fortunes on both sides.

In spite of the losing streak, the Red Wings continue to lead the Atlantic Division w/ 41 points. Previously, they'd won 7 of 8 before running into a hot Toronto team twice and getting upset by Florida in between. Two of the losses came in shootouts, so I'm not overly concerned. This team's overall possession numbers remain strong w/ them allowing the 4th fewest # of shots on goal per game and they're also second on the penalty kill. They're also 8th on the power play.

Columbus' overall possession numbers, by comparison, are pretty bad. They rank 27th and 28th, respectively, in Corsi and Fenwick percentage. They allow the fourth most shots on a per game basis in the entire league. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has been the star for December w/ a 6-0-0 record and 1.91 goals against average. But he's facing an average of more than 35 shots per contest. So I don't know how long it can last. The Red Wings beat the Blue Jackets, 5-0, earlier in the year in Columbus.

Ben Burns

NY Rangers vs. Calgary
Pick: Calgary

I believe the Flames will be more "hungry" than their guests here.

While the Rangers are riding a 3-game winning streak, the Flames have dropped five straight.

The Flames should be happy to get back to Calgary.

They average 2.7 goals per game on the road but 3.1 here at home. They've also won seven of their last nine here.

The Rangers stumbled (3-1 loss at Montreal on 10/25) the only previous time this season that they'd won three straight.

Going back over the years, we find them at a dismal 69-85 (-41) after winning their previous three games.

The home team won both meetings in this series last season, the Flames improving to 3-1 as a host of the Rangers, since 2008.

While the Rangers may be hotter at the moment, the Flames still have the better overall record. Getting them as a slight underdog provides some value. Consider Calgary.

Ben Burns's Featured Package

Jesse Schule

Columbus vs. Detroit
Pick: Columbus +1.5

Columbus is on a roll, coming into Detroit as winners of six straight. There is no margin for error though, as this is a team still sitting six points back of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Red Wings had won seven of eight before dropping their last three games.

Detroit sits in third place in the East, just three points back of the first place Penguins. It's not going to be easy to break out of a slump against one of the league's elite netminders, as Sergei Bobrovsky looks to be in the hunt for another Vezina Trophy. He's undefeated in his six starts in December so far, boasting a phenomenal .943 save percentage in those games.

The Wings have a history of struggling against the Jackets, as Columbus has won six of the last eight head to head meetings. During that span they have taken 2-of-3 in Detroit, and the lone loss came in a game decided by just one goal.

I like the Jackets to keep things close in the Motor City tonight.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Steve Janus

New York Knicks +7½

While the Knicks are just 1-11 over their last 12 games, they have covered the spread in each of their last 2 and 5 of 7 overall. In their last three home games they have lost by 5-points to to the Raptors, 4-points to the Trail Blazers and 3-points to the Cavaliers. Adding to this is the fact that New York hasn't lost at home by more than 7-points since a 15-point loss to Washington back in the 4th game of the season on Nov. 4. I think this line has been inflated, due to the perception that Dallas is going to bounce back off that ugly home loss to the Warriors. However, the Mavericks could be without one of their key players here in Chandler Parsons, who is a game-time decision with a back injury.

Key Trends - Dallas is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ in their last game. New York is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games versus a team with a winning percent above 60% and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record.

Brad Diamond

Dallas Mavericks vs. New York Knicks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -7½

I should talk (Sixers) but, the Knicks look horrible. Interesting both Philadelphia and New York have a legendary basketball history, still both are suffering currently from that horrible disease “lack of talent.” Dallas is 17-8 SU, while New York is a pathetic 5-21 on the season. The Mavericks are 57-25 ATS on the road, while hitting a wonderful 47-17 ATS off a SU loss. Remember, the Knicks are just 3-10 SU at home and 0-4 ATS on Tuesday’s. Since Dallas is a strong bounce back unit off a SU loss, my bankroll is on the Mavericks who illustrate a super offensive arsenal and are much healthier than New York.

Chase Diamond

Dartmouth vs. Mercer
Play: Dartmouth +5

This game has the 3-5 Dartmouth at the 5-4 Mercer. Dartmouth is off a bad loss and will be motivated to get back on track today. Dartmouth has a team with a lot of minutes under there belts and Vegas is really giving us a great deal on a desperate Dartmouth team here. 88% of the public is on Mercer here a recipe for disaster. Take Dartmouth plus the points.

Chase Diamond's Featured Package