Ari Atari
NY Rangers vs. Calgary Flames
Play: NY Rangers -110
New York is coming off an easy shut out win against the Oilers where they only surrendered 16 shots on goal. This is also the end of a Western Canada road trip that saw them absolutely demolish the surprising Vancouver Canucks 5-1.
Calgary is winless in their last 5 and has slipped out of a playoff spot. I don’t see this as any real surprise given that Calgary’s Corsi and Fenwick numbers are some of the worst in the league (FA60 is 41.3, bottom third and CA60 60.9, third worst). Johnny Gaudreau has been electrifying and Sean Monahan has found his scoring touch since November (16 points in his last 20 games). Giordano is the front runner for the Norris this year and leads the team in points. Although I am a big believer that the guys up front need to carry the load offensively, especially when facing this Swedish guy named Henrik Lundqvist.
The Rangers currently sport the best shooting percentage in the league and the third best PDO (9.84%, 100.9, respectively). Rick Nash is having one of the best seasons of his career and is capable of changing the complexion of a game every time he steps on the ice. The D-corps of the Rangers should be able to force Calgary into playing from the outside making life easy for Hank. Rangers stay hot on the road.
Brandon Shively
Belmont vs. VCU
Play: VCU -13½
I like VCU to win this game tonight by 16+ points as their pressure defense will be way too much for the inexperienced guards of Belmont to deal with. I say that because Craig Bradshaw (Belmont's leading scorer) at 21.3 ppg is out for this game with an injury. Bradshaw is shooting 52% from the floor (47% 3 PT), and is by far their best player. Also Taylor Barnette, a Virginia transfer, did not play last game because of an ankle injury and this guy is their leading 3 point shooter on the season as he almost shoots 7 three pointers a game.
I think that Belmont will go on several long scoring droughts in this game that will allow VCU to get the cover. Without Bradshaw or Barnette last game, Belmont only had one legitimate 3 point shooter (Spencer) on the court and they lost at home by 8 points to Wright State.
For VCU, this is a team that has beaten Belmont by 10 and 13 points the last two years. Without Bradshaw for Belmont and them not being as good this season anyways, a blowout win for the Rams is in store for tonight. Last season, Belmont lost 81-68. Of the 68 points scored (7 players), only 3 of them will be playing in tonight's game. So only 35% of the scoring from last year's game will be featured in tonight's game.
VCU is averaging 10 steals a game with their pressure defense. Where they have gotten burned on the season is with their perimeter defense, but I think they can fix that with the injuries to Belmont and their lack of multiple 3 point shooters. VCU also has a BIG advantage down low with Graham and Cox as they guys know how to crash the board and get rebounds. VCU has a team is grabbing 12 offensive boards a game while Belmont is only averaging 6 offensive rebounds and I will factor this into my decision as well.
While the trends might support Belmont in this game, I strongly feel like they are outclassed in this game and their lack of depth will be a big problem. Playing on the road and not having Bradshaw and his 21 ppg is huge. If Barnette does play, he is hobbling around on an injured ankle. VCU is due for a blowout win and the match-up tonight calls for a BIG WIN. Look for VCU to win this one by 16+ points.
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA -106 over Tampa Bay
OT included. The Lightning played last night in Pittsburgh and lost 4-2. They have one win over their past five games and that victory occurred against the Hurricanes. In the second period last night, Ben Bishop was injured and replaced by Evgeni Nabokov. When Bishop was injured last year and the Lightning was forced to use Anders Lindback for 23 games, they transformed from being a strong team to a very beatable one and we see the same metamorphosis likely happening again. Last year with Tampa, Lindback posted a GAA of 2.90 and save percentage of .891. Nabokov, an Islander castoff, has posted similar stats to that of Lindback only Nabokov’s is slightly worse. His goals-against average is 2.99 and his save percentage is .893. There’s a huge difference playing in front of a goaltender you have confidence in and playing in front of a goalie you have none in and that’s the dilemma the Lightning will have to endure. Furthermore, Tampa will play its fifth game in seven days, third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. On zero days rest, the Bolts are 2-4 this season.
Philadelphia is a team on the rise. They have allowed just six goals against over their last four games while winning three of them. After a five game road trip, Philly is 2-0 at home while outscoring the opposition 9-2. They have cut down enormously in shots on net allowed and they are one of the NHL’s best in creating chances. Aside from possessing one of the top lines in the league, suddenly Philadelphia is getting major production from its secondary scoring units. The Flyers are loaded with snipers and there is a completely different feel about them now than there was earlier in the year. You can see it in their body language that they’re relaxed and playing with a ton of confidence. In an extremely favorable situational spot and facing a dumpster fire backup goaltender, the Flyers have plenty appeal here.
TORONTO -105 over Anaheim
OT Included. Regular readers of this site know how much we’ve been fading the Maple Leafs over the years and it was warranted because their vast popularity has made them one of the most overvalued teams for years. Leafs Nation, and it stretches wide, have always believed the Maple Leafs to be better than they really were but we’re seeing plenty of positives these days and we’re happy to step in on them at a cheap price against the leagues' most overrated team. We’ll get back to the Ducks in the next paragraph. As for the Maple Leafs, all they’ve done is defeated the Red Wings twice and the Kings once over their past three games. Over their past five games, Toronto has allowed just eight goals against. The Leafs time of possession is much better recently and therefore time spent in their end is way down. Toronto is also among the league leaders in goals scored and it’s not just coming from the Bozak/Kessel/JVR line either. The Leafs have gotten very lucky in many games this year but that was not the case in their latest two victories against L.A. and Detroit, in which the Leafs deserved the points. They have also deserved the wins in at least four of their last six victories. Even when the Leafs get badly outplayed, which is much less frequent these days, their goaltending gives them an outstanding chance of winning.
The Ducks lead the NHL with 47 points. Their 21 wins match Chicago’s 21 for the most in the NHL but unlike Chicago, Anaheim’s 21 victories come with plenty of warning signs. The Ducks have allowed 83 goals against, which ranks them 10th out of 14 teams in the West. Prior to defeating Winnipeg (4-1) and Edmonton (2-1), the Ducks previous 10 victories in a row were all by one goal and 10 of their last 21 games went into OT. So, yeah, the Ducks are winning but they have what one would call extreme puck luck and so regression is inevitable once the bounces stop going their way. Unlike the ‘Hawks, Blues and other elite teams, Anaheim is not dominating play and in fact, they’ve been outshot in eight of their past nine games. Lastly, the Ducks are 8-9 against teams in the top-16 in the standings, suggesting they’ve beaten up on teams not going to the playoffs. Anaheim’s strength of schedule ranks 22nd out of 30 teams and it’s only a matter of time before that aforementioned regression sets in. The Ducks are high on our fade list and we’ll put that to the test here.
Scott Spreitzer
N. Dakota St -1.5
The Akron Zips have struggled to grab the money on the road, going 1-7 ATS the last eight times the hosts have had a winning home record. The Zips aren't at full strength, losing Demetrius Treadwell to suspension several weeks ago and will be playing just their second true road game of the season, losing their first roadie to Penn State on November 25. North Dakota State is a tough nut to crack on their home floor. The Bison are 2-0 this season at home and have now won 15 straight homers going back to last season. Lawrence Alexander leads three plays in double figures, averaging 17 ppg and Akron can be a little shaky in the backcourt. Also, with Treadwell suspended, the Zips are hamstrung on the offensive end of the floor. It's a tough spot for the MAC entry and we'll back the Bison of North Dakota State minus the short number.
Tony George
Oklahoma City -7
The Thunder with Durant back have increased their offensive production by 12 ppg since his return and are also playing some defense, especially their last 5 games. That no doubt explains the 6 game win streak and offensive production at 107 ppg their last 5. They play the Kings tonight, who just fired their coach out of nowhere and the Kings players no doubt have to be scratching their head at near .500 on the season and lose a head coach in December. One has to wonder how they respond to that, and against a good team I am taking a fade position in this scenario for a free play on Tuesday
The Thunder have dominated this series, winning 11 straight games, and their last loss to Sacramento was back in 2012. With the Kings allowing 101 ppg their last 5 games, how do they stop the express train of Durant and Westbrook here? I do not see how they can with Cousins still sidelined, as well as forward Casspi being out tonight, so I am willing to lay a big number on the road here with a team who is lighting up the scoreboard against one who are back on their heels. The Kings oddly enough are 8-3 SU on the road this year to date, but just 5-8 at home. OK City has a huge Thursday TNT game on deck with Golden State but with a day in between, and being well coached enough they should be focused in tonight and get a solid road win knowing this is a winnable game and they are 8 games out of the division lead.
Jeff Clement
Oral Roberts vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -17.5
Oral Roberts only scores 66.4 points per game which ranks 217th in the nation so Oklahoma will put the press on them to cause more turnovers. Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS last 5 non conference and 5-2 ATS last 7 home games.
Ray Monohan
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder -7
Seven points seems to be a lot for the Thunder to cover on the road, but the Kings have been falling apart with the absence of DeMarcus Cousins. Sacramento has lost three in a row and is 2-7 without their big man. Oklahoma City has been on fire since the return of scoring champ Kevin Durant. They have won six in a row, eight of the last nine, and four in a row ATS. Since the return of Durant, Oklahoma City is averaging 15 more points per game bringing their average to 110. The Kings will struggle to score and rebound without Cousins, look for Ibaka to have a big game on the glass and for Durant to score his usual 30 points. Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on 1 days rest. Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
Larry Ness
Minnesota at Chicago
Pick: Under
Chicago has won NINE of its last 10 games after a 2-1 win against Calgary on Sunday. After that victory in the United Center, the under is 9-3-1 in the Blackhawks' last 13 games on their home ice. They have allowed more than two goals by their opponent only TWICE this season at home. Chicago is still without its top goaltender Corey Crawford who is out with a foot injury but the Blackhawks may have found a revelation in Scott Darling. The rookie goaltender has been outstanding in relief with his 1.97 goals-against-average and .937 save percentage in his seven starts. Darling has only two starts at home this season but he has been spectacular in those outings that resulted in a 1.02 goals-against-average and a .966 save percentage.
Minnesota enters this rematch of the Western Conference Semifinals encounter with the Blackhawks last spring coming off a 4-3 win in a shootout at Arizona. The under is 9-3-2 in the Wild's last 14 games against teams with a winning record. The under is also 6-2-2 in their last 10 road games in large measure due to the strong play of Darcy Kuemper. The goaltender saves his best play when away from home as his 2.42 goals-against-average and .920 save percentage on the road are both better numbers than his 2.45 goals-against-average and .906 save percentage overall for the season. The under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams that includes their playoff showdown last season. Expect those trends to continue tonight and take the under.
Red Dog Sports
Buffalo Sabres vs. Winnipeg Jets
Play: Buffalo Sabres +196
Buffalo is 6-0 in their last home games. They are 10-3 in their last 13 overall. They last home loss was to Winnipeg 2-1. They did lose at Florida and Tampa Bay last week but are one of the hottest teams in the NHL led by goalie Jhonas Enroth. Winnipeg has been a surprise but is just 1-3 in their last 4 games. The Jets are 9-4-2-2 on the road but just 6-6-1-1 at home. Small value play on Buffalo at +196.
Dave Price
Memphis Grizzlies -2.5
This is a rough spot for Golden State, which is playing its third road game in four days and will be doing so without the services of Andrew Bogut. That's a big loss as no one else on the roster matches up with Marc Gasol as well. The Grizzlies have had two days to gear up for this one so I'm expecting them to be a little fresher and a little bit more prepared. You want to fade road teams on Tuesday's in games when the line is +3 to -3 if they are outscoring opponents by 6.0 ppg or more on the season. Doing so has produced a 21-6 ATS mark the last five seasons. Memphis is 41-26 ATS the last three seasons in games when the line is +3 to -3 and 32-17 ATS the last three season versus teams that outscore opponents by 6.0 ppg or more.
Jack Jones
New York Knicks +7.5
The New York Knicks are one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA right now due to their 5-21 start to the season. They are nowhere near as bad as their record would indicate, but they have simply fallen victim to some bad fortune in close games.
Indeed, a whopping 14 of the Knicks' 21 losses this season have come by 7 points or less. That is about as unlucky as it gets. In fact, they are 0-10 in their 10 games that have been decided by 5 points or less this season. If they win half of those games and they have a respectable record right now.
Because of their poor record, they have been undervalued here of late and have been cashing in at the ticket window, going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. They beat Boston 101-95 on the road on December 12th before falling in overtime at home to Toronto 90-95 on December 14th in their last two games. This team clearly has not quit and will continue to fight tonight.
Dallas is certainly one of the best teams in the Western Conference, but it is not playing that well coming in. It has lost three of its last five games overall with its only two wins coming against Milwaukee and New Orleans at home. The Mavericks are certainly getting too much respect as 7.5-point road favorites here.
Now, Chandler Parsons is banged up and could miss a second straight game. He was averaging 26.0 points on 64.4 percent shooting over a three-game stretch before sitting out a 98-105 home loss to the Warriors last time out. Parsons is questionable to return tonight with a back injury.
The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Dallas is 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes. New York is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Dallas. The Knicks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. They have actually played better against the best teams they have faced this year.
Jimmy Boyd
Warriors/Grizzlies Under 203
I think we are getting some big time value here with the total for tonight's ESPN showdown between the Western Conference's top two teams in Memphis and Golden State. This is a statement game for both teams and I expect max effort defensively from both sides.
The last time these two teams combined for more than 203 points was back in February of 2012. Each of the last 9 have finished below the mark set for tonight's contest, including 8 straight that have seen fewer than 200 points scored. Adding to this is the fact that over the last 3 seasons when these two teams meet up in Memphis, the average combined score in these games has been 188 points with an average total set of just 190.4 points.
These are two of the top defensive teams. The Warriors lead the league in defensive efficiency at 95.2 and Memphis is 7th at 100.2. While Golden State also leads the league in pace at 100.4, Memphis is one of the slower teams at 94.2. With this game being played in Memphis and the Grizzlies coming off a full 2 days rest, combined with this being the Warriors 3rd game in 4 nights, I look for Memphis to control the tempo and that should be more than enough to keep this below the mark of 203.
UNDER is 42-15 in Warriors last 57 after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, 40-19 in their last 59 after an ATS loss and 6-1 in their last 7 games vs the Western Conference. UNDER is also 35-19 in Memphis' last 54 after 3 or more consecutive wins and 3-1this season after 2 or more consecutive overs.
Jimmy Adams
Oral Roberts vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -16
Nice spot play here as Oral Roberts had to play a make-up game against Missouri State last night. Now they must travel to Oklahoma on no rest to take on the powerful Sooners. OU has a very explosive offense, but where they’ve really improved this year is on the defensive end. Their ball pressure is great and they’re really contesting shots, holding opponents to a low field goal percentage. The Sooners are pulling down 31.25 defensive rebounds per game, which ranks 2nd in the country.
Oral Roberts played a nice game last night against an inferior foe. They exerted a lot of energy so traveling to Oklahoma to play the next night is not exactly ideal. The Golden Eagles haven’t been particularly impressive on either side of the ball. They struggle to score, especially from 3 point range. Oral Roberts also is one of the worst teams in the NCAA at defensive rebounding. This will obviously lead to put backs when Oklahoma misses shots. Lay the chalk and take Oklahoma.
Sam Martin
Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies
All good things must come to an end, and we look for Golden State's 16-game winning streak to end tonight at Memphis. The fact that the Grizzlies are listed as the favorite is telling, and with a powerful 11-1 home record behind them along with an "un-Grizzlies-like" 107 ppg scoring average in this building, Memphis is just the type of team that can end the Warriors run.
While the offense gets the credit for both of these teams' success, it's their defense play that is the main cause for their inflated win/loss records. Golden State is holding foes to 41% shooting while Memphis is holding opponents to 44% shooting. If this game were played in Golden State, we would like the Warriors, but at home in a playoff-type of atmosphere, that home court advantage is enough to earn Memphis a win and cover tonight!
BIG AL
Edmonton vs. Arizona
Pick: Phoenix
The Coyotes made a little change in their name - from Phoenix to Arizona - and the result has been their worst season since their days as the Winnipeg Jets. Arizona's points percentage of .400 (10-16-4; 14 points) is the worst in the current franchise's history, but wins may be on the way. First of all, there are few teams who have played as tough a schedule as the Coyotes have in their last five (all losses). Arizona has had to face the Wild, Predators, Bruins, Kings, and Flames - all teams with winning records at the time they played them. It just so happens that the Coyotes last victory was against tonight's opponent six games ago in Edmonton and the Oilers are a team that hasn't seen a winning record in quite some time. Moreover, Arizona's won all three meetings this season vs. Edmonton.
So a visit from a team that has won just twice in 14 road games this season should be a welcome relief for a club that isn't as bad as its record would indicate. Even when the Oilers were a half-decent team, they were being dominated by Arizona (Phoenix) as the Coyotes are now 19-7 in the last 26 meetings and 9-3 in the last 12 meetings at home. Take the Coyotes.