Andrew Lange
Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh (at MSG)
Play: Cincinnati +3 1st Half
It is common knowledge that when Cincinnati plays a comparable foe, the Bearcats are going to struggle to put the ball in the basket. But over the last two games, things have gone from not-so-good to historically bad. Against New Mexico and Xavier, the Bearcats shot 23-of-73...from 2-point range! And going up against Pittsburgh is far from an ideal situation for a dramatic turnaround. But while I'm well aware that points will likely be at a premium, what I do expect to improve is Cinci's effort. Every quote you read following last Saturday's loss to rival Xavier wasn’t so much on the score but the lack of fight – which under Mick Cronin is rarely an issue.
“It’s inexcusable,” said Cronin, who’s now 3-5 vs. Xavier. “We’re not tough enough on the defensive end. We’re not tough enough to get the ball to the open man when teams are doing whatever they’re doing defensively to us. Really, anything that involves toughness right now is a real big problem for our team.”
Pittsburgh comes into tonight's game 10-0 but has yet to be challenged. They smoked a soft Stanford squad by 17 in Brooklyn and fended off scrappy Penn State at home by 9. Outside of those two games, the Panthers have been at home facing teams the can not only handle but also bully. We saw a similar output last year as Pitt raced out to a 12-1 start with a handful of blowout wins but struggled initially in Big East play (1-3 SU/ATS start). One of those games was against Cincinnati...at home, where the Panthers were laying -6 and lost outright by 9.
With both teams switching conferences, tonight's game doesn't have as much meaning but I still expect it to have a Big East "feel." Cronin will have his troops ready to play against a talented but very young Pitt squad. The ideal situation would be to get Cinci at home but with the neutral court setting, I'll step in and grab the underdog in the first half.
Joe Williams
Wichita State at Alabama
Play: Wichita St. -2
Wichita State faces a tough road test, but one they should ultimately pass. The Shockers are 7-0 ATS in their past seven road games, and 16-5-2 ATS in their past 23 games overall. They're also 20-7-1 ATS in their past 28 non-conference tilts. Alabama is 6-1 ATS in their past seven home games, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 home games against a team with a winning road record. However, they're 2-5 ATS in their past seven non-conference games.
Jeff Alexander
Elon +14½
Georgetown can't be trusted laying this many points against an experienced Elon team. Consider that the Hoyas are only 6-15 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18.0 points under coach John Thompson III. Additionally, playing against favorites of 10.0 points or more that are off a win of 6 points or less and are up against an opponent that's off a loss of 15 points or more has resulted in a 151-94 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Bet Elon.
Doug Upstone
Belmont vs. Denver
Play: Belmont +6
On Tuesday, Play Against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Denver, after one or more consecutive Over's, when they allow 67-74 points a game, against a weaker defensive team which surrenders 74-78 PPG. The thinking here is the road team, Belmont in this case, has been able to dictate tempo and the home team is 12-36 ATS since 2009 and is even worse the last three years at 3-16 ATS.
Jack Jones
New Orleans Pelicans +8
The New Orleans Pelicans are showing tremendous value as an 8-point road underdog against the Golden State Warriors Tuesday night. I'll take advantage and back them as tonight's free pick.
New Orleans has been playing very well over the past month. It has gone 8-5 over its last 13 games overall with only two of its losses coming by double-digits during this stretch. That includes a 101-102 home loss to Golden State on November 26, which will have the Pelicans out for revenge here.
The Warriors continue to get too much respect from the books despite remaining without Andre Iguodala, who has proven to be arguably their most important player. They have lost three of four coming into this one, and their defense has been horrible over the past month.
Golden State has allowed 101 or more points in 11 of its last 13 games overall. Iguodala is their best defender, so considering he has been out for the past 12 games, it's easy to see why the Warriors have struggled defensively during this stretch.
Monte Williams is 33-15 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog as the coach of New Orleans. The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall. The underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.
Dave Price
Golden State Warriors -8
Mark Jackson has called out his team, saying, "I am finding that the guys in the suit and tie want it more than the guys in uniform." Look for the Warriors to respond at home tonight against a New Orleans team that is 0-7 ATS this season versus teams that have a winning record. New Orleans will be out for revenge for a one-point home loss to the Warriors Nov. 26, but history suggests its level of motivation won't be enough against a Golden State team that is coming off an upset loss to division rival Phoenix. You want to fade any team that is out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent if that opponent checks in off an upset loss to a division foe. Doing so has produced a 54-25 ATS mark the last five seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have lost by 9.2 points on average. Lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
WAKE FOREST -5½ over St. Bonaventure
The Bonnies are 7-3 overall but they have played one of the weakest non-conference schedules of any team in the nation. It’s been cupcake after cupcake after cupcake for the Bonnies and that does not prepare you for road games at tough venues against quality opposition. The Bonnies have defeated South Dakota, Abilene, Canisius, Southern Illinois, Wagner, the Massachusetts Lowell River Hawks and Iona while losing to Sienna, Louisiana Tech and Buffalo. The Bonnies have played just two true road games and lost them both and this is without question, their toughest test to date. St. Bonaventure lost its top three scorers from a year ago and now a host of new guards have seen playing time. This is a weak shooting team with weak guard play that is having problems rebounding and defending. That is not the recipe for success on the road against an ACC team.
The Demon Deacons haven’t defeated anyone of note either. However, they’ve still played a tougher schedule than the Bonnies with victories over USC and Richmond, not to mention a 9-point loss to #2 Kentucky. That’s not to say this team in underrated because chances are they will finish at the bottom or near in the ACC standings. Wake’s coach Jeff Bzdelik has taken heat wherever he’s been and he’s in the hot seat once again this year because his coaching style is erratic. There's a collective pause around this program as Wake fans and potential recruits await what is clearly a make-or-break season. Bzdelik has spoken of changing the program's "culture," and last season, a large freshman class arrived. Typically, a roster with a high number of sophomores will improve its performance over the previous season, and that's more or less what Wake is hoping for. The good news is that Wake needs wins against weaker competition. They can’t take a night off and expect to win. The Deacs have been outstanding on the boards so far this year and they have also been outstanding at getting to the line with an average of 28 attempts per game. Wake is sure to play a fast paced, up tempo game and force this mistake prone visitor into committing turnovers and making a lot of bad decisions. We usually don’t recommend spotting points with poor clubs but the Bonnies are so weak in so many areas that we’ll confidently make an exception here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida +122 over TORONTO
OT included. The Maple Leafs are definitely playing better and these past few games will likely serve them well in the near future but after playing their hearts out last night and coming up short again, the Maple Leafs are not in a favorable position. Toronto will play its sixth game in nine nights here after playing Boston, Los Angeles, St. Louis, Chicago and Pittsburgh. That’s about as difficult a five-game stretch as any team in the league has had to endure this season and now the suddenly hot Panthers come in.
Florida has won five of its past six games with only loss over that span occurring against the Blackhawks. Against the Canadiens on Sunday, the Panthers allowed one goal on 18 shots on net. The Panthers have held six of their past nine opponents to 26 shots or fewer and four of those to 23 or fewer. They’ve also outshot five straight opponents and have allowed two goals or fewer in five of six. A young, rested and confident team that is gaining steam is a dangerous team and they now catch the Maple Leafs running on fumes.
San Jose/ST. LOUIS Over 5½
The Blues are as solid a team as you will find in the NHL and at the top of most of the league's meaningful statistical categories. St. Louis is built to withstand the rough terrain of the playoffs, and the only question that GM Doug Armstrong may seek to answer during the second half of the season is whether the goaltending of Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott is up to the challenge. So far they haven’t been, which is the only reason that 25 of the Blues 28 games so far have gone over the total. Both Halak and Elliott have poor save percentages that rank in the lower tier of this year’s group of goaltenders. That’s a huge problem against a Sharks team that is on the verge of exploding.
San Jose has dropped five of six and the only reason that has occurred is because they have ran into some super-hot goaltending while not getting adequate goaltending of their own. Against the Predators in their last game, the Sharks outshot Nashville 38-23 and lost 3-2. Against the Islanders last week, the Sharkies lost 3-2 despite outshooting New York 48-28. The game prior, San Jose outshot Minnesota 38-13 and lost 3-1. Against Pittsburgh, the Sharks lost 5-1 and outshot the Pens 45-30. The Sharks are creating an abundance of scoring chances every game and there is no way that they can keep being contained with that relentless attack that has created more scoring chances than any team in the NHL by a wide margin. The Sharks routinely fire away 40 shots or more a game and a large portion of those are of the quality variety. San Jose has already scored six times on the Blue Notes twice this season. Both these teams are strong offensively and weak in net, which prompts us to go over this total.
DALLAS -½ +156 over Colorado
Regulation only. We could play the Stars including OT in a pick-em game but will choose to take back the big price and play them in regulation only. We like this wager better because if the game goes into OT, it’s pretty much a 50/50 proposition and spotting any price tag in any 50/50 situation is a losing proposition over time. This angle of playing on the team that lost the previous night in a home and home series is a profitable one too.
Dallas went into Colorado last night and got drubbed, 6-2 while allowing 48 shots on net. That’s not the way a Lindy Ruff coached team plays and a response is in order. Ruff had lots to say after last night’s loss. "I’ve got to work with them," Ruff said. "They’ve got to play in the big situations against the big players and they’ve got to make those plays for us. It really falls on my shoulders to get them there." Ruff was referring to his defense coughing up the puck and instead of putting blame on anyone, he put it on himself. Players usually respond to the coach taking all the heat. This is not a soft Stars team. When they come in focused and ready, they are an extremely tough out. Dallas has defeated some of the elite teams in the league already that includes San Jose, Chicago, Los Angeles, Boston, Vancouver and Anaheim and they figure to bring that same intensity into this one.
LT Profits
New Orleans vs Golden State
Pick: New Orleans +8
The Golden State Warriors are in a bit of a slide and are just one game over .500 at 13-12 straight up while burning quite a few bettors’ tickets at 10-13-2 ATS. They looks like an overlay in this spot as the New Orleans Pelicans are one of the few teams in the NBA that can match up with the great Golden State backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, as the Pelican have their own dynamic duo of Eric Gordon and Jrue Holiday manning the guard positions. Yes, the Warriors lead the NBA in three-point shooting at 41.6 percent, but they do not expect to get much separation from beyond the arc in this contest with New Orleans ranking fourth in that department at 38.8 percent, with forward Ryan Anderson leading the way at 44.1 percent. The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
St. Bonaventure vs Wake Forest
Pick: Wake Forest -6
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 8-2 overall and 7-0 here at home, where they are winning their games by an average of 17.0 points. This is a team that does not give up many second chances, ranking ninth in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, and Robert Morris transfer Coron Williams has given the team a nice scoring boost by scoring double-digits in seven of 10 games. Wake does not have a bad loss either with the two defeats coming to Kansas and Tennessee. The St. Bonaventure Bonnies are 7-3, but you will be hard-pressed to find a quality win with the only triumph vs. a team currently in the Pomeroy Top 100 being over 99th ranked Iona. Meanwhile the Bonnies have bad losses to 241st ranked Siena and 188th ranked Buffalo. Wake Forest is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference games.
Andre Gomes
Cleveland Cavaliers +5
Portland will play tonight their third game of the road trip and they are 2-0 so far w/ blowout win @PHI, and a terrific comeback win @DET w/ after a strong 26-15 4th quarter score and Damian Lillard's clutch shot in the Overtime. All their 5 starters logged at least 40 minutes of action so a physical letdown could happen tonight @CLE.
I had the OVER in that game @DET and I was expecting DET's frontcourt to dominate the poor interior defense of the Blazers and indeed they did: POR ended the game w/ 68 points in the paint while 65% of their shots were near the basket.
One of the key factors for this improved play from the Cavaliers lately has been their frontcourt, led by Andrew Bynum. Note that CLE was averaging 33.8 points in the paint/game in the first 17 games of the season but in the L6 games = 44.3 ppg! I expect CLE frontline to have a nice offensive edge vs. the Blazers in this area.
Even though Lillard is playing better defense this season, he is still a subpar individual defensive player - the Blazers defense is ranked just #20 defending Pick n Rolls Ball Handler plays for some reason! The bad news for them is that Kyrie Irving is playing his best basketball of the season right now - he's been named the Eastern Conference of the week and in the L3 games he scored 37, 31 and 19 points w/ nice 19/6 A/TO ratio! I also expect Cleveland to have a nice offensive edge in Irving vs. Lillard and/or Mo Williams.
Obviously, the Blazers offense will have some key edges as well mainly w/ Aldridge shooting from the outside vs. slow footed CLE frontcourt. Cleveland is yet to be consistent in-game as Mike Brown is still looking for the best rotation but I think that the Cavaliers will be extremely competitive tonight and the Blazers should have been favored by just one ball possession, therefore I'm taking the Cavaliers tonight as my Single Dime Play!
Matt Fargo
Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers
Play: Philadelphia Flyers -120
This is an immediate revenge game for the Flyers as they lost to Washington on Sunday in a shootout and will be out to get it back in the second of this home-and-home set. Philadelphia has dropped four of its last five games but all of those losses were on the road and the lone victory in there was at home where it has won six straight going back to November 9th. That alone tells you what a tough schedule it has been as of the last 18 games, 12 have come on the road with eight of those highway games resulting in losses. It doesn't get much easier as after this, seven of the next nine games are also on the road so clearly, taking care of home ice here is a must. Washington is in second place in the Metropolitan Division but it is 10 points behind Pittsburgh so there is a lot of work to be done. The Capitals are just 6-5-3 on the road even though one of those wins was here, a 7-0 shutout on November 1st which only adds to the Flyers motivation. Philadelphia falls into a great situation as we play on home favorites against the moneyline coming off a loss by one goal to a division rival going up against an opponent after a home game where both teams scored three or more goals. This situation is 100-39 (71.9 percent) since 1996.
Wunderdog
Belmont at Denver
Pick: Denver -5.5
The Belmont Bruins have become a familiar name in CBB, as they had a pair of excellent teams that played in the NCAA Tournament the past two years. This team lost their top three players from a year ago, but their upset win vs. North Carolina keeps them in the spotlight. Denver has always been advantaged at home where they play at high altitude. They have used the altitude for their success, and with Belmont lacking depth it will again be a factor in this contest. Denver has translated the altitude and good play on their home court to go 9-1 ATS in their last 10 here vs. a winning team. The Bruins have managed just a 6-14 ATS mark following an ATS loss. Take Denver in this one.
Andre Gomes
Lakers / Grizzlies Under 193.5
I really didn't think the Lakers would have been competitive last night against the Hawks and that's why I took ATL-6 in the game. ATL spread offense w/ good shooters and their skilled big men were too much for a shorthanded Lakers team on the backcourt. The good news for today is that they will face a Grizzlies team that are far from being a good shooting team and will play without their best backcourt player Mike Conley. The Lakers interior defense isn't anything special but tonight's game plan will be an easy one: pack the paint! The Grizzlies have been struggling offensively and without both Gasol & Conley, their floor spacing will be ugly to watch.
On the other side, the Lakers offense is now struggling to hit their outside shots. Since Kobe returned = 33-113 3pts%, just 29%! They are playing with Bryan @ Point Guard and obviously he struggling badly to play at this position. MEM perimeter defense has been terrible as of late but w/ the Lakers struggling they will have a good spot for tonight and I expect this contest to be a ugly game to watch w/ low scoring outcome.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Memphis/ Florida Under 139: No way this game hits 140. The Memphis Tigers are a solid offensive club, they have not faced a defense like this yet. The Gators have really been tough at the defensive end of the floor as they have allowed just 60.9 ppg so far, which is 17th in the nation. Now the Gators have averaged a modest 71.8 ppg on the year on offense, but a closer look shows that they haven't score more than 67 points in their 3 games vs ranked foes, while averaging just 62.5 ppg in their 4 games vs teams from the power conferences. Part of that is the fact that the Gators are playing good defenses and part is because they really slow the game down in big games. The Gators 4 games vs teams from the power conferences have averaged just 125.4 ppg. Memphis allowed 101 points to Oklahoma state earlier in the year, but in their last 6 games they have allowed just 65.2 ppg. Memphis would like to run, but Florida won't and their defense should slow down Memphis enough to keep this one under the total. Also don't look for a ton of extra points from the charity stripe as both are poor FT shooting teams. Low 130's at best.
3 UNIT PLAY
MICHIGAN STATE -24.5 over North Florida: The Spartans have not really played like a top 5 team in their last 2 games, losing at home to Carolina and then following that up with just a 4 point win at Oakland. You can bet that Izzo isn't all that happy with their last two game sand will have his team ready to put a full game together in this one. North Florida has played a tough schedule in the early going and has been blown out in most of them. They have Faced Alabama, Ohio State and Indiana on the road this year and have lost each game by 21 points or more, while losing to the only ranked foe they have faced (Ohio State) by 35. Michigan State can do the same here as they look to pu a full 40 minutes together vs an over matched North Florida squad.
Joe Gavazzi
Pittsburgh -5
This is one group of pissed-off Panthers. Fifteen D1 teams remain undefeated in college hoops this season. Pitt is the only team from a major conference who is NOT ranked in either the AP or the ESPN Polls. Yet, this success hasn’t fooled the linemaker which is the reason for reducing the rating a bit on this game. In bolting to a 10-0 SU start, all Pitt wins have been by 9 or more points. In classic Pitt style, they are doing it with a +11 rebound margin and a 60/39 defense. What has changed about this Pitt team is an offense that is averaging 82/49 with less than 10 TOs per game and converting 75% from the stripe. Following a 7-0 SU (home start), the Bearcats went to New Mexico where they lost 63-54 to the Lobos, then followed that up with a 64-47 loss to Xavier. With new rule changes, this game may have little bearing to the Big East blood baths these two fought in recent times. But it is clear that Pitt is much further ahead at this point in the season and with plenty to prove to the pollsters, looks to make a point in this high-profile game. Pitt HC Dixon, now 23-12 ATS, following consecutive double digit home wins, while Cinci HC Cronin is 19-35 ATS vs. greater than .800 foes.