Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday December, 18

Ben Burns

San Antonio vs. Denver
Pick: Denver

I successfully played against the Spurs last night, part of a 3-0 sweep with my premium basketball plays. (Unfortunately, my free play on the Pistons turned out to be a dud.)

As much as I respect Popovich and the Spurs, I feel that they may be in tough again tonight.

While the Nuggets had yesterday off, the Spurs played at Oklahoma City, a playoff rematch which had some "extra intensity."

It should be noted that the Spurs often actually perform quite well, when playing the second of back-to-back games. In fact, they're 28-16-2 ATS in that situation the past 2+ seasons.

However, the Spurs did lose (98-90 at Portland) the last time that they were playing the second of back to back games and I'm a firm believer that not all back-to-back situations are equal.

In this case, the Spurs will also be playing their eighth game in the past 12 days, which is quite grueling stretch. I'm aware that Duncan and Parker got some rest in the fourth quarter last night but when considering the fact that this game will be played in the high altitude of Denver, I still feel that fatigue could potentially prove to be a factor.

Of course, beating the Nuggets here is rarely easy, even when not in an unfavorable scheduling situation. Note that San Antonio has now dropped three straight on the road.

The Nuggets are off back to back wins and are 4-0 ATS their last four. In their last game here at Denver, they knocked off Memphis by five points. They followed that up with a dominating 25 point win at Sacramento.

For the season, the Nuggets, who have played fewer home games than any other team, have quietly gone an impressive 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS here, outscoring opposing teams by an average score of 103-94.

The Nuggets should have plenty of motivation, as the Spurs embarrassed them at San Antonio last month. Take a look at the home team.

Art Aronson

Minnesota vs. Miami
Pick:Minnesota

I have been hot with my basketball free picks of late, going 4-1 with my last five. Today I go back to the hardwood and I am going to play on Minnesota.

The T'Wolves are 7-4 ATS on the road and have covered the spread in eight of the last 11 games. The T'Wolves played last night and got beaten by the lowly Magic. Now they have to turn around and play the defending champs on their home court. I still think the Heat are being asked to cover a few too many points here and the value is with Minnesota.

Note: the game was in Orlando, which really isn't much travel time from Miami. The T'Wolves are a decent 5-4-1 ATS when playing on the back end of a back-to-back game. Despite their loss, Minnesota is still red hot, having won four of its last five games and covering the spread in three of those. I expect them to extremely angry and pissed off after last nights blown game to the Magic.

Another good sign for Minnesota was the play of Kevin Love. Love had 23 points and 15 rebounds as he continues to get back in the swing of things since returning from injury.

The Miami Heat are just 9-11 ATS this year and 3-6 when playing teams with a winning record. Granted, the Heat got revenge on the Wizards their last game out, the T'Wolves are just step up in class and should give the Heat run for their money.

Minnesota lost a 103-101 gut wrenched last year against the Heat. Miami was favoured in that game by 8.5 points.

Jesse Schule
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Minnesota vs. Miami
Pick: Miami
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The Heat will host the Timberwolves on Tuesday night, and Minnesota is coming off a loss in Orlando last night, snapping a four game winning streak. The Timberwolves started off well against the Magic, and they led by a dozen points at halftime. They ran out of gas in the second half though, and went on to lose by a score of 102-93.
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The Wolves are playing their third game in four nights, and the back end of a back to back, so the tank might be running on empty tonight. Ricky Rubio didn't make much of an impact in a limited role last night, missing all three of his shots in just his second game back. He is expected to miss tonight's game, still recovering from a torn ACL.
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The Heat have won four straight meetings with Minnesota, and three of those four games were decided by double digits. They have also won three of four at home, with the lone loss coming against the red hot Golden State Warriors. They bounced back from that loss by blowing out the Wizards on the weekend, winning by a score of 102-72.
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Kevin Love has played through injuries, still managing to put up impressive numbers, but he's shooting just 30% in his last in his last seven games.
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Minnesota is in a tough spot here in Miami tonight, and while they are getting quite a few points, I still think the Heat win by double digits.

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Richmond vs. Kansas
Pick: KansasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas sent a warning shot to Richmond and all other upcoming foes in its dominating win over capable Belmont on Saturday night. Jayhawks' size and athleticism overwhelmed the Bruins, who were forced to have long jump shots when their offensive sets could not provide open looks. Of course, KU's 7'0 C Jeff Withey (5.6 blocks per game leads the country) completely shuts down the defensive interior, and smallish Richmond will have to do its business from the perimeter or in transition to have a chance of denting KU's defense allowing only 35.4% FGs. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks have scored 84 points or more in three straight games while shooting 54.9% from the floor in the process.

Scott SpreitzerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Kentucky at Virginia Commonwealth
Prediction: Virginia Commonwealth
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Tough spot for Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers will face a Rams' squad that averages 74 ppg at home, while allowing just 57 ppg to their "guests". WKU will attempt to "keep up," which plays right into VCU's desired style. The Hilltoppers average over 68 ppg on the road, but they make just 42% of their FG attempts away from home, including just 24.7% from beyond the arc. In fact, they struggle so badly with their shooting that they even make just 59.3% of their FT's on the road. WKU hopes guards T.J. Price (ankle) and Jamal Crook (foot) are able to play. They are the top two scorers on the team and Price has missed the last two games. Both are questionable, but even if they do play, they're reportedly less than 100% healthy. Crook is far and away the top assist man on this team with 50. The next in line is Price with 22 assists. The worst part about WKU's road game is that they average just 11.5 assists per game and over 15 turnovers per game. Their propensity for turning the ball over could be magnified by a Rams' team that averages a whopping 13.6 steals per contest on their home floor. VCU is on a 13-4 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they're 9-3 ATS against teams playing better than .600 basketball. VCU won last year's meeting 68-45 in Bowling Green, Ky. I expect another wide-margin win in Richmond. I'm laying the points with VCU on Tuesday.

Red Dog SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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MIAMI FLORIDA vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA
PLAY; MIAMI FLORIDA
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This should be a good game. Central Florida is located outside of Orlando and has 60,000 students enrolled. They trail only Arizona State, who has 62,000. Miami has started to play well lately with Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji inside along with Durand Scott and Shane Larkin outside. They are well coached by Jim Larranaga, who was at George Mason.
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Michael Jordan's son was at CFU a few years ago but they are still a decent team and just won at ODU by 76-71. This is a key battle for Florida bragging rights and the Hurricanes play better defense and rebound better. I think we see Miami win by 8 and cover.

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Denver at Wyoming
Pick: Wyoming
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Wyoming wants to keep that perfect slate intact, and the Cowboys are not likely to overlook at team that defeated them last season. Denver is starting to shoot it better, but I can live with fading the Pioneers in this road spot. Wyoming minus the points.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hornets at Warriors
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Golden State comes home after a terrific road trip that has the players booming with confidence. Many teams are flat in that first game back after a trip, but Golden State faces a terrible New Orleans team that can't stop anyone, 19th in the NBA in points allowed and 26th in field goal shooting defense allowing 46% shooting. The over is 7-2 in the Hornets last 9 road games. Golden State is third in the NBA in rebounds and 11th in scoring (99.6 ppg). New Orleans is a mess with little depth and this is a terrible spot, the second of a back to back situation, playing at Portland last night, so look for the home team to run and run all night long. The over is 5-1 in the Warriors last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 6-2-2 over the total in the Warriors last 10 home games. Play the Hornets/Warriors Over the total!

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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CHICAGO -1½ over BostonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Despite playing in Memphis last night, this is a rather cheap price for the Bulls at home against the most beatable Celtics team in some time. Boston has dropped seven of their past eight road contests with only win over that span coming against Orlando in OT. The C’s only win in their past three also came in OT against Dallas by a bucket. The Celtics rank 30th in rebounding and 16th in points allowed, making them as ordinary as the rest of the .500 clubs in the league.
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Chicago has already lost at home to Boston once this year. That was way back in early November when the Bulls were struggling. That was then, this is now. Chicago has just three losses in its past 10. Two of those occurred against Memphis and the Clippers, who are a combined 34-12. The Bulls are the #1 defensive team in the NBA. They figure to dominate the boards in this contest, as they are also one of the top rebounding teams in the Association. Chicago is just 7-6 at home but this team is simply too good to be a .500 home team. Its ascension is inevitable and this is as good a place as any to start.
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Utah +5 over BROOKLYNFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Two double-digit losses in a row, the latter by 15 against Phoenix, have the Jazz unappealing at the moment but we find them in a favorable spot here. The Nets have had problems with dominant frontcourts all year and will face one of the best in the NBA here. Utah boasts four quality players up front in Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter. Prior to losing two straight, the Jazz had reeled off four wins in a row including wins over San Antonio and against the Lakers in L.A.
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Brooklyn is on a current 0-4 run against the number when favored. After a scorching start, the novelty of representing a new city and playing in a new building has lost some of its lustre with the Nets having just two wins in their past eight games. The kicker here is that they have a game in New York tomorrow against the Knicks and that one holds much more weight than this one, against an unfamiliar Western team they’ve played just once over the past calendar year.
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WASHINGTON +244 over AtlantaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This one sets up perfectly for the Wizards to earn just their fourth win of the season. Atlanta has won five straight in this series, including two already this year so it would come as no surprise to see the Hawks looking ahead to more important games. Atlanta lost to the Heat and Warriors last week, following their pattern of struggling against better teams. With games on deck against the Thunder, Sixers and Bulls beginning tomorrow at home against OKC, Atlanta’s focus is almost sure to be off for this one.
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Washington is 4-0 in its last four home games against the spread. They’re still missing a couple of key players but having Nene back in the lineup has made them more competitive. The Wiz has played a very tough schedule recently with games against Miami twice, the Lakers, Golden State and New York. Washington comes into this one with an edge in rebounding, free throw shooting and a bench that is heating up. They’re almost sure to be the hungrier club and with a take-back of close to 2½-1, we’ll gladly step in.
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Old Dominion +8½ over CHARLESTONFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Certainly not the marquee game on the board tonight but they all pay the same and we find a nice opportunity with the Monarchs of Old Dominion taking back some significant points. ODU has just one win in 10 games this season. That has them undervalued. The Cougars of Charleston have a very notable win among their five, which came against then #24 Baylor on November 24 as a 17½-point pooch. That win put them on the map for now but it was just one of those fluky things that happen from time to time, especially in college.
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The Cougars are rarely favored in this range. They’re SOS (strength of schedule) is 183rd in the nation while the team ranks 312th in points per game and 320th in assists. By contrast, Old Dominion’s SOS ranks 103. They are also in the top 60 in rebounds per game and rank higher than Charleston in just about every other key category while playing a more difficult schedule. The Monarchs are being offered this many points because of one fluke game by the host and the respective records of these two. Looking beyond that uncovers a pretty sweet take-back.

Timothy BlackFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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MICHIGAN STATE vs. BOWLING GREEN
PLAY: BOWLING GREEN
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This game will feature great defenses where points will be at a premium. Bowling Green is allowing under 52 ppg at home this year, and just 60 ppg in all contests. With such a low score, I don't see Michigan State getting a double digit lead. Bowling Green is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning % above .600. The Spartans, on the other hand, are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Wunderdog

Southern Miss at Georgia State
Pick: Southern Miss -3

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles have opened the season at 7-3, as they head out on the road vs. Georgia St. This is a solid defensive team that despite two overtime games has not yielded more than 68 points to any of their first 10 opponents. While the defense is doing their part, the top three scorers on the Golden Eagles are all shooting 51% or higher, so they are putting together numbers on both sides conducive to winning on the road. After opening with Duke and BYU, Georgia State has been just 5-3 to a below-average schedule, and despite being favored in their last five, they have failed to cover any of them. That has added to their dismal mark which now stands at 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. teams greater than .600. lay the points and go with Southern Miss.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver Nuggets -2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Spurs have lost three of four during a difficult stretch where they have played a lot of games in few nights. This will be their fifth game in seven days, and they won't have the legs to run with the run-and-gun Nuggets. Denver has won three of four with a nice win over Memphis during this stretch. It will be the fresher team as it had yesterday off. Plus, it should be the hungrier team as it looks to avenge an embarrassing 126-100 loss in San Antonio on Nov. 17. Revenge has been a terrific angle to play on the Nuggets, especially when they are on their home floor. Consider that they are on a 65-47 ATS run in home games when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. They have won by an average score of 107.1 to 99.8 in this situation. The Nuggets are 6-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming to the defending NBA champion Miami Heat. Their six home wins have come by an average of 11.5 points with all of them coming by at least three points. Take Denver.

John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Southern Miss at Georgia State
Prediction: Georgia StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that GS will lose this game by fewer than four points and may win the game straight up. I like splitting these dogs into combination bets. In the case of this dog play, I will be making an 8* amount using the line and a 2* amount using the money line. GS is a solid 24-9 ATS after 3 consecutive non-conference games since 1997; 11-3 ATS after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Georgia State is off a 10 point loss at Troy Saturday. GS is a very resilient team noting that head coach Hunter is a rock solid 11-2 against the money line (+10.7 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more in all games he has coached since 1997. Take Georgia State.

John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Denver NuggetsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Denver will win this game by five or more points. I had the Thunder as a 25* Titan winner as they cruised to a 13 point win over the Spurs Monday. Now, the Spurs have had to travel to Denver and play on back-to-back nights. In recent years, there has been increased debate on the whether the lines are inflated because of a traveling team playing on consecutive days. I think, the bottom line is that it depends on the matchups. Fatigue becomes a greater factor after the 50th game, but the Spurs are hardly a young team and I believe it does impact these types of teams far earlier than the 50th game. Sim shows a high probability that Denver will get between 53 and 57 rebounds, will attempt a fast-paced 84 or more shots, and will have between four and nine more rebounds. In past games, the Spurs are just 49-78 ATS in road games when they grab 4 to 9 fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1996. Meanwhile, Denver is a solid 41-26 ATS in up-tempo games where they attempt 84 or more shots over the last 3 seasons; 24-13 ATS when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 33-14 ATS when they grab 53 to 57 rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons; 143-97 ATS when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1996. Take the Denver Nuggets.