Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Stanford vs. NC StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: NC StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Stanford has won three straight games to improve to 7-3 on the season but now comes one of the bigger tests of the season. The Cardinal failed to get the job done against heavyweights Missouri and Minnesota in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas and this game tonight is their first true road game of the season. They will have a tough time keeping up offensively as they are shooting just 39.8 percent from the floor including 26 percent from long range, both of which are dead last in the Pac 12. Stanford has shot better than 40 percent just four times this year and has topped 50 percent only once. Conversely, NC State is shooting 52.7 percent from the floor including 39.1 percent from behind the arc while defensively it is strong as well, holding opponents to just 39.7 percent shooting. The Wolfpack are also on a three-game winning streak following a loss at Michigan and the last two wins have upped their record to a perfect 4-0 at home. The key here for NC State will be limiting Stanford's second chance opportunities as they are good on the glass and missed shots can lead to a slew of offensive rebounds. The good news is that the Wolfpack are +9.0 in rebounding margin over their last five games. This is a revenge game for NC State which lost at Stanford last year and it was a tough one as the Wolfpack had a double-digit lead in the second half and never trailed in the game until there were less than four minutes remaining. Payback will be sweet tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Bobcats vs. Lakers
Play: Under
This game fits a Nice totals system that has cashed 16 of 19 times. We want to play the under for rested home favorites of 10 or more like the Lakers that scored 110 or more points as a road favorite in their last game, vs an opponent like Charlotte that scored 90 or more points at home in a game where the point spread was +3 to -3. Charlotte has played under in 14 of 19 on Tuesday nights, 12 of 16 as a road dog of 9.5 to 12, 9 of 12 off a favored loss and 5 of 7 vs teams who score 99 or more points. The Lakers shut them down pretty god last year here in Los Angeles and Charlotte scored in the seventies. The Lakers have played under in 5 of 6 Tuesday and the last 2 here between these two have stayed under. Look for this to go under the 208 point total.
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UC Irvine +1.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hickey is back for the LSU Tigers but he was as well the last game at Boise when LSU got blown out of the building. I know that Irvine's overall record is not so spiffy, but they are a perfect 3-0 here on this court and they have been a tough team to beat here for a very long time. They have played a much larger schedule than most and have faired well verses some Big Boys like UCLA and Nevada. This can best be described as a No Respect line and mine is Irvine -3.8. I am playing 1% only and mostly because the Anteaters can be challenged offensively sometimes. They certainly play very good D and especially on this court.
Dave PriceFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana Pacers +2½FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game is all about revenge for the Pacers, who were kicked by 14 at Milwaukee in the season's first meeting. Prior to that, Indiana had won 5 straight in the series. The Pacers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games while the Bucks are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 home games. Also, the road team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Pacers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee. Take the Pacers.
Jeff AlexanderFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Celtics +1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bulls are a soft 1-9 ATS as a home favorite this season. They have already lost at home to Boston this season and will have a tough time avenging that loss consider the Celtics are the fresher team. Chicago played in Memphis yesterday while the Celtics have had 2 full days of rest. Bet Boston.
Steve JanusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Hawks -6½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta enters tonight's game off an embarrassing 93-115 home loss to the Warriors on Saturday. The Hawks haven't lost back-to-back games since the beginning of November and should have no trouble getting back on track against a Wizards squad that has won a total of three games all season.
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Washington has been outscored by an average of 7.5 ppg this season and a solid 9 ppg against division opponents. Considering how the Hawks will be extremely motivated off that loss to Golden State, I simply can't see the Wizards keeping this game close.
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Atlanta is 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games when listed as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs a team with a losing home record.
Jack Jones
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Washington Wizards +7
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The Washington Wizards are showing solid value as a 7-point home underdog to the Atlanta Hawks tonight. The betting public has not wanted to touch the 3-18 Wizards, and as a result their spreads have been inflated here of late.
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Washington has been covering at an alarming rate over the last few weeks. It is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall with its only non-cover coming at Miami last time out. This team is battling some injuries, but it has proven that it is a very deep team.
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There is a very good chance that Atlanta is overlooking Washington heading into this one. The Hawks know that they have a game looming against the Oklahoma City Thunder tomorrow night. That's a game they'll be much more interested in considering the Thunder own the league's best record and they have won 11 straight.
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The Wizards have lost their first two meetings of the season with the Hawks, both of which came on the road. They fell 100-101 as a 9.5-point underdog on November 21st, and 95-104 as a 9-point dog on December 7th. Atlanta may also be disinterested after beating the Wizards twice already this year.
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This play falls into a system that is 50-21 (70.4%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home teams (WASHINGTON) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points. Bet Washington Tuesday.
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Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat
Pick: Minnesota TimberwolvesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I blew a play on Minnesota last night when the Timberwolves lost 102-93 at Orlando but have the gut feeling they will make amends tonight with an outright win over a Miami Heat team is eligible to get ambushed. Minnesota is at full strength for just the second game of the season and I expect them to bring their “A” game tonight, as most NBA teams do when they are meeting a top-flight opponent. I know Minnesota is better than it showed last night and am going to let my intuition lead the way tonight.
Andrew Lange
Stanford at NC State
Play: NC State
I think Stanford is in for a difficult time tonight at NC State. The Cardinal will be playing their first road game of the season clear across the country against a quality foe eager for a marquee win. I typically don't make much of revenge angles but it is important to note that last year NC State traveled to Palo Alto had a comfortable lead and then allowed Stanford to close the game on a 17-1 run – much of that run occurred without CJ Leslie who was sitting due to cramps. Offensively, Stanford has really struggled to shoot the basketball despite not having played a true road game. In losses to Belmont, Minnesota and Missouri, the Cardinal shot only 42% from the floor and an even more alarming 14-of-64, 21.8% from three. Stanford also wasn't a great road team last year. Their six PAC-12 losses were by margins of 11, 13, 13, 10, 11 and 1 (at Utah). But while a lot lines up for NC State, there are some concerns with the Wolfpack, most notably sloppy play. This team has the capabilities to beat anyone in the country on their home floor but they tend to disappear for extended stretches during games. I think some of that will be shored up with this being their first marquee home game of the season but supporters should be prepared for a few ups and downs. Ultimately though, I see enough in NC State's favor to lay the moderate price as they have more than enough ability to win this game by double-digits.
Joe Gavazzi
NC State -7 ½
For Stanford's fifth year HC Dawkin's, his Cards figure to challenge for the upper echelon in the PAC12. But I am not sure that is making that bold a statement. They've already lost at home to Belmont, as well as on neutrals to Missouri by 8 and Minnesota. Now they must travel cross country to Raleigh, where they will hear their first BOO at the RVC Center. Wolfpack may have underachieved their pre-season ratings, but they still figure to be the premiere challenger to Duke the as best of the rest in a diluted ACC. They have built a bit of momentum at home with a pair of victories by 22 and 17 points. In games between quality opponents, single digit home favorites when priced as the better team, are 76-40 ATS following consecutive double digit victories.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Chicago/ Boston Under 181: last night I played the Over in the Chicago/Memphis game and boy was I wrong as the teams combined for just 151 ppg in that game. The Chicago offense is very weak right now (86.45 ppg L5 games), while their defense has been exceptional all year, allowing just 90.4 ppg overall, including 88.2 ppg at home and 86 ppg in their last 5 overall. Boston has played 2 high powered offenses (Spurs and Rockets) and 1 pretty good offense (Dallas) in their last 3 games and have allowed 100 ppg (Regulation) in those games, but this is a team that had been playing very good defense, allowing 87.6 ppg (Regulation) in their 6 games prior to the previous 3. The Boston offense has not been that strong of late, averaging just 91.7 ppg (Regulation) in their last 9 games and I do not see them cracking this tough Chicago defense for 90+ here. Chicago has really been slowing tempo and their home games have averaged 178.3 ppg, while their last 5 overall have put up just 172.4 ppg. I expect more of the same in this one. They just don't have enough offense to speed games up, but they have more than enough defense to keep games low scoring. Neither team will reach 90 in this one.
Charlotte/ Lakers Under 206: The Lakers are starting to play better defense as they have allowed just 97 ppg in their last 2 games, compared to allowing 111.8 ppg in their previous 4. Tonight they should be able to have another solid defensive performance vs a Charlotte squad that has averaged just 92.2 ppg on the road this year. The Bobcats defense has been bad this year and they do allow 109.9 ppg on the road, but they have been slightly better this year as 10+ point dogs, allowing just 104.3 ppg in those games. The Lakers on offense are very good, but they score just 101.5 ppg at home and when installed as a big fav (10+) they have put up 104.1 ppg. Really don't expect more than 207 from the Lakers here, while the Bobcats should be held in the low 90's at best. Look for right around 200 in this one.