Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 3

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Michigan at Duke
The Wolverines travel to Duke tonight to face a Blue Devils team that is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games as a 6 1/2 to 9 point favorite at Cameron Indoor. Michigan is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Devils favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+7 1/2)

Game 517-518: Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 62.448; Eastern Michigan 59.084
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 6
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+6)

Game 519-520: Central Florida at Florida Atlantic (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 55.107; Florida Atlantic 54.552
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 1
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 6
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+6)

Game 521-522: Indiana at Syracuse (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 73.498; Syracuse 73.359
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+6 1/2)

Game 523-524: Illinois at Georgia Tech (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 68.103; Georgia Tech 61.503
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 1
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-1)

Game 525-526: Penn State at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 62.283; Pittsburgh 72.891
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (+14 1/2)

Game 527-528: Northern Iowa at WI-Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 59.844; WI-Milwaukee 55.000
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 5
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 1
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-1)

Game 529-530: North Texas at BYU (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 48.245; BYU 73.101
Dunkel Line: BYU by 25
Vegas Line: BYU by 18
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-18)

Game 531-532: Texas Tech at Arizona (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 54.531; Arizona 75.491
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 21
Vegas Line: Arizona by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-17 1/2)

Game 533-534: Colorado at Colorado State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 65.623; Colorado State 60.791
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 5
Vegas Line: Colorado by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-2 1/2)

Game 535-536: Michigan at Duke (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 73.781; Duke 74.956
Dunkel Line: Duke by 1
Vegas Line: Duke by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+7 1/2)

Game 537-538: Notre Dame at Iowa (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 62.439; Iowa 79.193
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 17
Vegas Line: Iowa by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-9 1/2)

Game 539-540: Florida State at Minnesota (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 64.801; Minnesota 71.500
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3)

Game 541-542: Utah at Boise State (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 62.291; Boise State 68.104
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 8
Vegas Line: Boise State by 10
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+10)

Game 543-544: Creighton at Long Beach State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 66.502; Long Beach State 56.977
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (+12 1/2)

Game 545-546: UC-Santa Barbara at UCLA (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Santa Barbara 59.417; UCLA 68.213
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 9
Vegas Line: UCLA by 12
Dunkel Pick: UC-Santa Barbara (+12)

Game 547-548: IPFW at Miami (OH) (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IPFW 55.054; Miami (OH) 50.310
Dunkel Line: IPFW by 5
Vegas Line: IPFW by 1
Dunkel Pick: IPFW (-1)

Game 549-550: Belmont at Middle Tennessee State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 62.522; Middle Tennessee State 65.408
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 3
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Belmont (+6)

Game 551-552: Southern Utah at CS-Northridge (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 38.867; CS-Northridge 46.221
Dunkel Line: CS-Northridge by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: CS-Northridge by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Utah (+12 1/2)

EZWINNERS

Eastern Michigan +6

This will be the first time UMass plays a game as a Top 25 ranked team since Nov. 18, 1998. The Minutemen are off to a great 6-0 start with some nice wins and a tournament championship, but I think this is a real flat spot for UMass. This is the first true road game for the Minutemen and after their early success against teams like Boston College, LSU and New Mexico I don't see them being excited to visit Eastern Michigan after and eight day layoff with a home game against BYU on deck. Eastern Michigan is not a team to take lightly. The Eagles are off to a 5-1 start with their only loss coming on the road against Kentucky. EMU has two solid scorers in Karrington Ward who averages a team leading 16.0 points per game and Ray Lee who scores 15.3 points per games. I expect this one to be close. Take the points.

Jim Feist

Orlando Magic AT Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers

Your free pick for Tuesday, December 3rd, 2013, comes in the NBA as Magic and the 76ers meet in Philadelphia. Orlando is a bad road team and in a terrible situational spot, the second of a back to back spot after playing at Washington yesterday. Orlando struggles on defense and the Magic is 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a losing record. Philadelphia is rested and at home, and when these teams meet the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Jimmy Boyd

Indiana +6½

Syracuse has played well this season, but Indiana has not been getting as much credit as they deserve from the oddsmakers. The Hoosiers have quietly posted a 6-1 record, and they are 5-1 against the spread. They have had no problem scoring baskets this season, averaging 86.4 points per game. When playing on the road their scoring average only takes a small dip down to 80 points per game while the Orange are averaging 74 points at home this year.

The 2-3 zone defense run by Syracuse will not be something new to the Hoosiers. These teams met last season, and while the Orange won that game, this year's Hoosiers team is built to defeat the zone. They are not a team that has to rely heavily on their inside game like last year, and they have been shooting 47 percent from the field in road games this season. Indiana's only loss this season came on the road in a neutral court battle with UConn. That loss was by a single point, so I am confident they can cover a 6.5 point line against Syracuse in this game.

Matt Fargo

Iowa -8½

One factor that I like to look at early in the season is teams playing their first road game after opening the season playing strictly at home and that is the case for Notre Dame tonight. The Fighting Irish are off to a 5-1 start with all six of those games taking place in South Bend. The one loss was a bad one at that as they lost to Indiana St. by 13 points. This is Notre Dame's first season in the ACC and it could be a very successful one as its guard loaded team matches up well with a lot of the conference opponents but it does not match up well here at all as Iowa should have a decisive edge down low with its big men. The Hawkeyes dropped their first game of the season last time out against Villanova in overtime down in Nassau. This is a team on the rise as they have the pieces in place to back to the NCAA Tournament as they have a solid and efficient offense, a tough defense and excellent rebounding ability. This line may seem big to some but in this case, it is not big enough.

Ray Monohan

Colorado -2

Buffs vs. Rams isn’t exactly the hottest rivalry but it is always interesting when school from the same state get together. In this series the home team usually wins but this year I think the Buffs are going to leave Fort Collins victorious. They are a short favourite on the road and they have a fantastic backcourt to lead the way. CSU has been a nice story of late but this is a totally different team from the one that was a factor in the MWC last season. Take advantage.

Rickie Robbins

Edmonton Oilers +114

The Oilers look to continue their strong play as they return home to Rexall Place to host the suddenly slumping Phoenix Coyotes.

The Coyotes got off to a red hot start this season as they were neck and neck with the cream of the crop of the Western Conference but have since faltered by winning just four of their last 10 contests and have since slipped into 4th place in the Pacific division. Phoenix generates most of its success with strong play between the pipes and a defensive game that contributes at both ends of the rink and while their offense gets a bit of a bad rap for not having a ton of firepower they certainly have some guys who can score. Phoenix has held a huge edge over the Oilers in recent memory and they’ll look to replicate that success with another strong outing at Rexall Place tonight. Mike Smith will get the call for the Coyotes while the Oil will counter with Devan Dubnyk.

Edmonton always seems to be in the discussion of the next break out team in the NHL as they were expected to follow similar paths to the Chicago Blackhawks and Pittsburgh Penguins but so far in the youth movement era for the Oilers they haven’t been able to muster up anything. For a team who was expected to make the playoffs in each of the past two seasons they have been a far cry from it and this season doesn’t appear to be any brighter.

However, the Oilers are playing very well at the moment and they starting to get some quality victories sparked by the signing of Ilya Bryzgalov. While the Russian netminder hasn’t been in a ton of action yet and is sidelined with a day to day injury it has been his presence that has seemingly elevated the game of Devan Dubnyk who was struggling until Bryzgalov was called up. The Oilers don’t typically play well against the Coyotes but with Phoenix not playing very well themselves at the moment and Edmonton coming off a nice win in Dallas I think it’ll be a motivator to do well and I think they get the win.

Art Aronson

Phoenix Coyotes -118

The visiting Phoenix Coyotes (15-7-4) look to bounce back after a 2-5 loss to the Chicago Blackhawks at home. Rob Klinkhammer and Martin Hanzel scored goals for Phoenix and Mike Smith made 31 saves in a losing cause. The Edmonton Oilers (9-17-2) come off a 3-2 SO win at the Dallas Stars. Ales Hemsky and Andrew Ference scored goals in the win. The Coyotes are 3-1 in games at Edmonton and 6-2 versus the Oilers in the last three seasons. Adding to the bad news for the Oilers is the fact that the team will have to start struggling Devan Dubynk in this game as starter Ilya Brzgalov was forced to leave last game with an injury and is not available for this game. The Oilers are just 3-8 at home this season so home ice is not really an advantage in this situation. Coyotes’ goalie Mike Smith is 6-0-1 with a 1.96 GAA in seven starts against the Oilers with Phoenix. I don’t usually recommend laying the juice on the road team in hockey that often but this looks like a no brainer. Take Phoenix.

JR O'Donnell

Northern Iowa -1

Northern Iowa - 1 get our call tonight on the road as these defensive minded and well coached Panthers will take out the boys from Wisky Mil on the road tonight at the U.S. Cellular enter..Huge stat in our favor tonight..... UNI has made 77.6 percent of its free throws through the first six games of the season.. We have hit a smooth 14-3 members run.... 2-0 last night Gators/Seattle Hawks and # 15 to the North Iowa Panthers - 1 on the road... Power Rated here @ N I - 4

Rob Vinciletti

Florida State +3½

The Seminoles have home loss revenge for a close loss to Minnesota last season. FSU is 4-1 straight up and to the spread as a road dog of 3 or less points and has covered in all 4 games vs winning teams. They are 5-1 to the spread coming off a non conference game. Minnesota is 1-7 ats as a short home favorite of 3.5 or less and has lost the last 2 vs winning teams in Arkansas and Syracuse. Florida.St has a solid edge on the boards and are a live dog here tonight. On Tuesday we have 2 solid NBA Plays up one is a 15-1 NBA Totals system that averages 216 points per game and the other is a double system side. Jump on both now as we cash out on Ruby Tuesday. For the free play take the points with Florida St. RV

Will Rogers

Orlando vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia

The Magic lost in Washington last night by a score of 98-80. They shot just 39% from the floor, and they were just 3-of-15 from beyond the arc. Orlando will play their second game of a back-to-back on the road in Philly tonight, against a 76ers team that has lost four straight and 8-of-9 overall.

Here are my keys to the game:

1: Previous History - The Magic have really struggled on the road this season, with just one win in seven games. Philadelphia has a .500 home record (5-5), and the Sixers have defeated the likes of Miami, Chicago, and Houston at the Wells Fargo Center.

2: Injuries - Jameer Nelson left last week's game against the Sixers with an ankle injury, and he's not expected to play tonight. Orlando has gone 0-2 in consecutive blowouts without Nelson in the lineup.

3: X-Factor - Orlando center Nikola Vucevic suffered an ankle injury against the Wizards, and if he's able to play tonight he likely won't be 100%.

Bryan Power

Detroit vs. Miami
Pick: Miami

Now to the Heat, who I feel should win this one convincingly after a close call the other night against Charlotte. Despite shooting 52% for the game, Miami beat the Bobcats by only one point and needed to rally back from a 12-point deficit at the end of the third quarter to do so. Over the final 8:20 of the game, the Heat scored an incredible 34 points, which if stretched out over a full 48 minutes would come to a 196-point pace. So, yeah, that's what the two-time defending NBA champs are capable of, just so you know. They are also 3-1 ATS this season off a SU win where they did not cover.

Meanwhile, I haven't been too impressed w/ the Pistons of late, as they will be dropping in this week's Power Rankings (out tomorrow). They are off an easy win over Philadelphia, but that was at home against one of the league's weaker teams. Miami, very quietly, has won 10 in a row. Taking this many points is unlikely to help the Pistons considering their 3-15 ATS record as double digit dogs the past 2+ seasons. Last year, they lost by 14 and 22 in their two visits to South Beach and that's the range where I expect the final margin to fall into tonight.

Brad Diamond Sports

Oklahoma City at Sacramento
Play: Sacramento

The Thunder finally leave Oklahoma after a six game home stand that edged up their solid 12-3 SU (8-7 ATS) mark in the Western Conference. They have won 7 straight games with a solid 5-2 ATS bank note. Although 9-0 at home, the Thunder show different on the road with a 3-3 SU mark. The SAC Kings (4-11) are the home underdog (+8 ) tonight, while going just 3-7 SU on their floor in 2013. They have lost 4 straight games, 2-2 ATS in Vegas. Their last win was on November 20th a 113-106 win at Phoenix as a 5.5 underdog. The Kings have been favored in only three games this season. Overall, the recent series between these two has been dominated by OKC with the Thunder winning six straight by an average margin of 12.4 points per game. This is their first meeting in the 2013-2014 campaign.

Against the spread the road team in the series has banked 5 straight. However, the lines makers have already compensated opening the number at -7.5 at this writing, we are at -8 overnightValue! Yes, OKC has all the floor edges, but we refer to their current 3-3 SU mark on the road thus far. With bigger games down the road feel EMOTIONAL ADVANTAGE inside rests with the frustrated Kings. At 4-12 ATS with just one day of rest OKC could have some problems here. And despite the Kings suffering SU in the series they have been competitive against teams with >.600 mark at 7/10 ATS.

DAVE COKIN

CREIGHTON VS LONG BEACH STATE
PLAY: CREIGHTON -12

I’m a big fan of taking good teams off uncharacteristically awful performances. Tonight, there’s a game that provides fits that philosophy to a tee as Creighton finishes off its California swing with a stop at Long Beach State.

The Bluejays were about as miserable as can be last time out. They evidently had a flat spot off the tough loss to San Diego State and ended up getting upset by George Washington. Losing to the Colonials was not the worst thing in the world. GW is not a bad team this season and they’re a little underrated right now. But the way the Bluejays lost was an entirely different story.

Creighton was simply terrible in this game. They were an atrocious 19/56 from the field, and only recorded nine assists for the entire game. Considering the efficiency this team usually displays, those stats are hard to fathom.

In spite of how poorly they played, Creighton actually got itself in position to win the game. They fought back from a double digit deficit to forge a 53-50 lead with a couple of minutes remaining. But Creighton then got outscored 10-0 at the finish line, and ended up absorbing a second straight loss.

I have to think this is all bad news for Long Beach State. The 49ers are really struggling. A quick look at the stat breakdown tells the ugly story. Long Beach cannot shoot the basketball. That includes foul shots, where the 49ers are an abysmal 56% for the season.

Creighton is not a great defensive team, but the strategy here seems clear. Don’t let Michael Caffey or Dan Jennings get good looks. Send them to the stripe if necessary, as both are horrid foul shooters. The Long Beach offense primarily goes through those two guys, so focusing on them should pay off.

As for the Bluejays offense, I’m not too worried. That George Washington game was an aberration, but one that likely works out in my favor here. I can’t envision Creighton being casual off two losses, especially with how poorly they played in the most recent one. Long Beach is the perfect antidote for what’s ailing the Bluejays. I expect this one to get lopsided and I’ll spot the points with Creighton.