Sean Murphy
Tampa Bay vs. Columbus
Pick: Columbus
Give me the Blue Jackets coming off a complete no-show in Boston on Saturday.
The Lightning are fresh off a 2-1 homestand, but let's face it, things have been mostly downhill since losing Steven Stamkos to injury back on November 11th. Tampa enters this game having dropped four in a row on the road.
Columbus has gotten off to a disappointing start to the season, but with that being said, the Blue Jackets have shown signs of turning the corner lately. They've managed to split their last eight games, despite being listed as the underdog in six of those contests. Their power play is finally clicking, having scored five goals over their last four games, and while their penalty kill continues to struggle, they aren't likely to face a stiff test in that department here, as the Lightning have converted on only one of their last 17 opportunities with the man advantage.
The home team is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in this series, but they haven't matched up since January of 2012. Even though they've gone through some tough times early this season, the Jackets are still a better team now than they were the last time they faced the Lightning. Tampa is simply trying to tread water while Stamkos recovers from injury. It has done a nice job of that so far, but I look for it to get tripped up here.
Steve Janus
Denver Nuggets -4½
The Nets have been one of the biggest disappointments so far this season and I think this is a good spot to fade Brooklyn off a misleading 97-88 road win over Memphis. The Grizzlies were without both Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, which are arguably their two most important players. Denver on the other hand is a team on a mission right now. The Nuggets have won six straight, including three impressive road wins over the Mavericks, Timberwolves and Raptors.
While I could see Denver wearing down towards the end of their 6-game road trip, I look for them come out strong tonight. This will be just the second game in four nights for the Nuggets.
Another huge key here is not only do I like fading the Nets off that big win, but this is also a huge look ahead spot for Brooklyn with a home game against the Knicks on deck this Thursday on TNT.
SPORTS WAGERS
Carolina +152 over WASHINGTON
OT included. The Hurricanes are not playing well. They’ve lost six of eight games and they also have some key injuries, specifically to defenseman Tim Gleason and ex-Cap, Alexander Semin. However, a close looks shows the ‘Canes playing some tough competition over their last 10 that include the Devils twice, Boston twice, Detroit, St. Louis, Anaheim and Colorado. Carolina won back-to-back games over Anaheim and Colorado and they also won back-to-back against Ottawa and New Jersey before losing its last two. The ‘Canes are close to getting to the consistent level they should be at. They are not getting great goaltending from Cam Ward and he’s a part of the reason why they’re struggling. What we know for sure is that the ‘Canes are every bit as good as the Capitals and probably better.
Washington has no appeal spotting a price like this one. There are so many things not to like about this team and we’ll start with time of possession in the opposition’s end. In that regard, the Capitals rank fourth worst in the league behind Buffalo, Florida and Toronto. The Caps lost four in a row before defeating the Canadiens and Islanders in their last two. However, they were badly outshot in both those games and thus, could easily be on a six-game losing streak. In fact, the Caps have only outshot one opponent over their past eight games. That was against the Maple Leafs. A recent view of past games reveals the Caps have been outshot 41-33 by Ottawa, 40-18 by Pittsburgh, 47-20 by St. Louis, 37-33 by Detroit and twice by Montreal by a combined 68-53. It would be unreasonable to expect the Capitals to sustain any consistency when they are spending most of the game in their own end. As a significant favorite, the Capitals are a huge risk and an instant fade based on those findings. Big overlay here.
San Jose -½ +102 over TORONTO
Regulation only. Following Saturday’s loss to the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs coach Randy Carlyle made a comment that was quite telling for a team that has been a statistical anomaly this season. It was a comment that confirmed the argument of advanced stat proponents, who preach a strong correlation between shots attempted and wins. For the first month of the season the Leafs won games despite consistently being outshot. When looking at the traditional shots-against stat, we see that Toronto allows 35.9 shots per game, worst in the league.
“Teams don’t score very much on the rush anymore in the NHL,” Carlyle said. “A lot more goals are created with offensive zone time, cycling, more deflections from the point and second and third opportunities from shots and rebounds”. This is called “offensive zone funneling” now. In even strength situations, the Maple Leafs own the worst shots on net percentage in the league. You can win that way with superior goaltending and players like Phil Kessel, who can change the game with one well-timed goal that only he can score. It’s just not the typical path to success and Toronto can’t keep winning by hanging their goaltenders out to dry. James Reimer’s save % is at .931 and Jonathan Bernier’s is at .929. They’ve been outstanding but both have career save percentages of .917, which suggests we’ll see some correction as the season goes on. The Maple Leafs did what they had to in capitalizing on a friendly early-season schedule but now it gets tough. Five of Toronto’s next seven games are against the West, which has cleaned up on Eastern Conference opposition so far this season. In the next three weeks the Maple Leafs will see the last four Stanley Cup winners. It’ll make great drama for the HBO cameras, which are getting ready to roll for this season's edition of "24/7," but doesn’t help the cause of a team trying to straighten out its game.
San Jose has won five in a row and eight of nine. They have scored 20 goals over their last five games and 13 over their last three against Anaheim, St. Louis and Los Angeles. This is the Sharkies second trip to Toronto since 2010 we mention that because every team gets jacked up to play in Toronto. Now we get to lay a half puck and take back some small juice with a team that spends more time in the offensive zone than any team in the league against a team that spends more time in their own end than any team in the league. The ice will seem tilted in this game and it won’t be in the Maple Leafs favor. The fade continues.
SPORTS WAGERS
GEORGIA TECH -1½ over Illinois
The Illini are 7-0 and they’re taking back some points here. That may seem appealing but when we look at the Illini we see plenty of problems. First, the Illini are undersized and that’s a big problem when facing a team with more weapons than they have. This is a weak rebounding Illini team that ranks 250th in the country in that department and that’s after playing a bunch of marshmallows. Illinois’ toughest opponent to date was UNLV and they won that game by a deuce. They also just beat Fort Wayne at home by a deuce and scored just 57 points. The Illini’s other victories came against Alcorn State, Jacksonville State, Valparaiso, Bradley and Chicago State. This is a team that relies heavily on two players and after that, the production drops off to alarmingly low levels. A lack of scoring, a lack of depth and a lack of rebounding does not equal to success against quality clubs on the road and that’s the situation the Illini face here.
The Yellow Jackets are 4-0 at home and included in that slate is a 9-point victory over Georgia. They’ve also played Dayton, Mississippi State and St. John’s. Indeed Tech has some issues too, most notably a lack of scorers but Tennessee transfer, Trae Golden is fitting in very nicely in this offense with his aggressive style and ability to get to rack and draw fouls. Then there’s Marcus Georges-Hunt. The most encouraging aspect of Georges-Hunt's game is that he was the leading scorer for an underperforming ACC offense as a freshman, yet he showed an unmistakable ability to take care of the ball. Georges-Hunt is averaging 12 a game and he’s only going to get better. The Jackets are an outstanding defensive team with a huge man in the middle in Daniel Miller. Miller alters shots, he blocks shots and the Illini have not come close to facing a defense like the one they will see here. Tech pulls away in this one.
Pass NBA
Big Kat Sports
Anaheim Ducks -130
The Anaheim Ducks will look to improve their home record to 11-0-1 on the season when they take on the Los Angeles Kings tonight at the Honda Center in Anaheim. The Ducks come into the contest off a loss to the Sharks where they came back from a 3-1 deficit in the third period, earning a point before losing in a shootout while the Kings come into the game playing in the second of a back to back after a 3-2 over the Blues last night. LA jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the second period but gave up 2 late goals and goalie Ben Scrivens had to make a few key saves in the final seconds to keep the game from going to overtime. In addition to their great start on home ice this season, the Ducks have been excellent in the spot they are in here tonight. They are 9-2 in their last 11 games against teams from the Western Conference and have posted a 9-3 record in their last 12 games when playing with 2 days of rest. The Kings, on the other hand, despite sitting just two points behind the Ducks in the Pacific Division have actually struggled in the situation they find themselves in here this evening as they are just 5-16 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Pair that with the fact that home team has won 4 straight in the head to head series between these two teams and we'll lat the small price with the Ducks to get another home win.
Hollywood Sports
North Texas at BYU
Pick: North Texas
BYU (6-2) will go as far as their outstanding freshman class will take them. The Cougars bring in four-star center Eric Mika who already has rebounding and finishing skills along with three-star power forward Luke Worthington. But BYU suffered a measure disappointment for the 2013-14 campaign when four-star point guard Nick Emery decided to begin his two-year LDS mission now. It may take this group some time for these new comers to click with guards Tyler Haws and Matt Carlino. The Cougars are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games on their home court. Additionally, BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against non-conference opponents. North Texas (5-3) was a disappointing 12-20 last season -- but this is a team that was decimated by injuries after beginning the 2012-13 campaign with high expectations under first-year head coach Tony Benford. Point guard Chris Jones and shooting guard Brandon Walton both broke a foot early in the season -- but both are back now to join leading scorer Jordan Williams who is a 6'6 junior. Furthermore, a Benford brings in a host of promising transfers in T.J. Taylor (a one-time Marquette commit), Vertrail Vaughns (a three-year player from George Mason), Maurice Aniefiok (from Ole Miss) and Kelvin Gaines (a 6'10 transfer from Cincinnati). The Mean Green has covered the point spread expectations in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. As a double-digit underdog, look for them to keep this game closer than expected. Take the points with North Texas.
John Ryan
Denver at Brooklyn
Prediction: Under
The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 200 points will be scored in this game. Two weaker NBA defenses are going to play tonight in this matchup. yet, I believe that fact is more than discounted by this inflated line. Denver has been strong getting 47 points per game in the paint good for 5th best and will be matched up against the Nets paint defense that ranks 8th allowing 39.3 PPG. Denver has a very deep bench that ranks second best scoring 45.2 PPG. This allows HC Shaw to be very patient and not have to force player combinations to score points. Further, the Nets are injured and playing short-handed now for weeks, so using a power paint game to wear the Nets down will be the preferred game strategy for the Nuggets to continue their winning ways. Lopez has a huge matchup advantage in the paint against the Nuggets. Lopez, averaging a team-leading 20.0 points, has scored a combined 50 on 60.6 percent shooting in the last two home meetings against Denver. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-39 'under' record for 65% winners since 2007. Play 'under' with road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) and is a solid team winning 60 to 75% or more of their games on the season with the current game taking place in the first half of the season. Take the 'under'.
Joe Gavazzi
Michigan +7½
If there are any issues when playing for the Duke Blue Devils, it is that the high profile created by veteran HC K results in a fishbowl environment that exposes the warts as well as the beauty. This year, the ink is flowing toward prize recruit Parker whose “do it all” persona shines on the offensive end. With transfer Rodney Hood, they are a dynamic addition to the Blue Devil lineup. Missing is a rim protector to patrol the paint and lend a much needed hand to the rebounding and defense of Duke. Those deficiencies have been clearly exposed in losses to Kansas and Arizona, the two quality teams they have faced. Returning to the friendly confines of Cameron Indoor, where they are 60-43 ATS vs. non con foes, will be a help. Michigan is making a smooth transition from the departure of Burke, Hardaway. Addition of Frosh PG Walton and the all-around play of Levert are nice compliments to returnees Robinson, McGary and Stauskas (questionable tonight, ankle). HC Belein outstanding in this role at 64-39 ATS, if his teams allowed 55 or fewer points in his previous outing.
Dave Price
Sacramento Kings +7
The Kings may be 2-4 over their last six games, but they have been playing well. They played the Clippers to a one-point game on the road and took them to overtime at home during this span. And, they played Golden State to a two-point game last time out. While these losses were tough to swallow, Sacramento will be lacking no motivation as it tries to end a six-game losing streak to the Thunder. Oklahoma City has won seven in a row but hasn't played away from home since November 16. Plus, it takes on the Trail Blazers in Portland tomorrow night so this is a definite look-ahead spot. The Thunder are a poor 2-5 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400 while the Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus a squad with a better than .600 win percentage. The Thunder are also a soft 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on one day of rest. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander
Miami Ohio +2
Not only will Miami Ohio be hungry to notch its first win of the season, but it will also be motivated to avenge last season's one-point loss to IUPU Fort Wayne. Playing home teams in the first five games of the season that closed last season with 13 losses or more in their last 15 games has resulted in a 153-101 ATS record since 1997. Teams fitting this scenario have won by 5.0 points on average.
Jack Jones
Texas Tech +18
This is a huge letdown spot for the Arizona Wildcats. They just won the NIT Season Tip-Off title with a win over then-No. 6 Duke by a final of 72-66 on Friday. The Wildcats have now moved up to the No. 2 team in the country, and they are starting to feel good about themselves.
"We're an all-around team. Really you could see it in the box score," Tournament MVP Nick Johnson said. "We're a good team and we can play with anybody."
While Arizona is on the national radar, Texas Tech certainly is not. However, head coach Tubby Smith has done a solid job with this team, leading the Red Raiders to a 6-2 start with their only losses coming on the road against very good Alabama and Pittsburgh teams.
Smith returned four starters and six of the top seven scorers from last season. Jay Crockett (14.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg), Jordan Tolbert (13.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Robert Turner (11.4 ppg) have led the way in the early going for the Red Raiders.
Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (ARIZONA) - after having covered four or five of their last six against the spread, undefeated on the season are 30-10 (75%) ATS over the past five seasons. The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Bet Texas Tech Tuesday.
MTi Sports
Thunder / Kings Over 203.5
The Kings are off a 115-13 home loss to the Warriors as a 4.5-point home dog. Overall, they shot well from the field, but Isaiah Thomas was a poor 5-of-16. This is spot in which the Kings have NEVER stayed under. Sacramento is 14-0 OU in Thomas' career at home off a loss as a three-plus point dog in which he shot worse than 33% from the field.
As a team, the Kings are 12-0 OU at home after a game in which they had more turnovers than assists as a dog.
More specifically, Sacramento is 7-0 OU (15.50 ppg) at home after a home game in which Jason Thompson had more turnovers than assists.
The Thunder is off a 113-103 win over the T-Wolves in which they shot 56.3% from the field and trailed by five points going into the fourth quarter. These two facts are OVER indicators, as the Thunder are 10-0 OU (5.90 ppg) with at most one day of rest off a win as a favorite in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter and the league as a whole is 10-0 OU (15.20 ppg) recently on the road after a game in which they shot at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.
Nelly
Orlando Magic + over Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 5-5 at home on the season as the up-tempo 76ers were a great surprise team early in the season with several notable wins. Philadelphia is just 2-3 in the last five home games however with both wins coming in overtime. Overall the 76ers are just 2-10 in the last 12 games with both wins coming in overtime. The 76ers have allowed at least 105 points in six straight games and this should be a good matchup for an Orlando squad that was shut down with just 80 points last night in Washington. The Magic shot just 39 percent while making only three 3-point shots for one of their worst offensive performances of the season. Orlando is just 1-2 without Jameer Nelson and Nikola Vucevic is likely out for this game as both have ankle injuries. The Magic won by 11 when these teams met just last week with Nelson missing most of that game and there are many statistical edges for Orlando in this matchup of six-win teams. Orlando has been dramatically more efficient on both sides of the ball yet the valuation is of these teams evenly with Philadelphia favored for jus the second time all season. Orlando has the depth to overcome the injuries and playing on back-to-back nights and the Magic has been a solid underdog performer this season.
Harry Bondi
BOISE STATE (-9.5) over Utah
Boise State and Utah both come in with impressive 6-0 records, but neither team has been tested. This is the first game for both teams against decent competition and the Broncos will prove that they are the much better team. Utah is a very young team with just five of 11 players back from last year and Boise is not a place you want inexperienced players taking the court for their first true road game. The Broncos are 30-6 on this floor the last three seasons and have had this game circled on their calendar since the start of the season because the Utes embarrassed them last year in Utah, 76-55, as six-point underdogs. Unlike Utah, the Broncos return all five starters and eight of the 11 who played last year at Utah. Revenge is sweet. Broncos run'em off the floor.
Wunderdog
Indiana at Syracuse
Pick: Syracuse -7
The Indiana Hoosiers have had to replace a lot of key parts from a year ago, but still have some talent. However, they still the true experience it will take to head to the Carrier Dome and face an unbeaten Syracuse team. Jim Boeheim seems to always have a great team. This year has been no exception, as the 'Cuse has three straight wins and covers against BCS conference teams. C.J. Fair is a bona fide All-American candidate, and is averaging 18 points per game, while Tyler Ennis has dished out 33 assists, and has 20 steals already. Indiana may have a better chance later in the year against this type of opponent in this type of venue, but for now they are just not there yet. Stick with the Orange in this one.