Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 6

Cajun Sports

Texas Tech vs. TCU
Play: Texas Tech +6.5

Texas Tech faces off against in-state rival Texas Christian on Tuesday evening with tipoff set for 7:00PM EST. A quick glance at their recent history we see they have played once a year the last two seasons with the visiting team cashing the winning ticket each time. TCU traveled to Tech last season and came away with an 81 to 77 win as a 7.5-point road underdog. Back in 2009 Tech came here as a 2.5-point road favorite and got the victory 80 to 70 over the host Horned Frogs. TCU is 6-20 ATS at home their last twenty-six times to post. The Frogs have trouble with success at least ATS success as they are 6-18 ATS following a spread victory their last time out. TCU is 3-13 ATS at home versus teams shooting 45 percent or better from the field. The Frogs are 0-8 ATS at home facing teams who force fourteen or fewer turnovers per game. We look for Gillispie’s Red Raiders to keep this one close right down to the final buzzer so take the points here as the road team cashes another winning ticket.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Texas Tech 69 Texas Christian 70

Jim Feist

Washington at Marquette
Play: Washington 5.5

A neutral site game in the Big Apple. Washington is a decent team (4-2), with an OT loss to Nevada the last game and an uptempo offense averaging 81 ppg. They are fourth in the nation in rebounds, led by 7-foot junior center Aziz N'Diaye (8.7 rpg) and 6-6 sophomore Terrence Ross (16.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg). They are taking on an unbeaten Marquette team getting a lot of headlines, but surviving two of their last three games, a 2 point win over Norfolk and a close game with No. 7 Wisconsin, shooting just 38%. The run and gun visitors match up well in the low post and have plenty of offensive bunch.

Sean Murphy

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Montreal Canadiens
PICK: Montreal Canadiens

Ordinarily, I would have no interest in backing a struggling team returning home from a west coast road trip, but in this particular case, I'm willing to make an exception.

The Canadiens built a little bit of momentum with Saturday's 2-1 win over the Kings in Los Angeles. It was the type of character win that can turn a team's fortunes.

Now comes another winnable game for the Habs, at home against a Blue Jackets squad that is at the tail-end of a four-game Canadian road swing.

Columbus' struggles this season have been well-documented. They have a league-low 17 points, and have notched only two victories in 13 tries away from home.

Blue Jackets fans (those few that are left) were calling for goaltender Steve Mason's head earlier this season. He got hurt and missed some time, and in his absence, backup Curtis Sanford was outstanding.

Now Mason is back on the bench in a backup role, and Sanford has suddenly regressed. In starting all three games on this trip, Sanford has given up 11 goals.

If there's one thing the Habs haven't had to worry much about, it's been their goaltending. Carey Price is having a fine season, posting a 2.23 goals against average and a .919 save percentage.

The Canadiens have won only four home games all season, but it's only a matter of time before they turn that record around. Note that they're averaging right around 2.7 goals per game on nearly 33 shots per contest at the Bell Centre this season. By contrast, the Blue Jackets are averaging 2.15 goals per game on the road, while giving up a whopping 4.1.

These two teams have met in each of the last three seasons, with the home team going a perfect 3-0. The last time they hooked up here in Montreal, the Habs skated to a 5-3 victory. I won't be surprised if we see a similar result on Tuesday.

David Chan

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Islanders
PICK: New York Islanders

The 11-13-2 Tampa Bay Lightning storm into New York to take on the 8-11-5 Islanders.

Mathieu Garon gets the call in the second game of the back to back for the Lightning; he'll be opposed by Al Montoya between the pipes.

The Islanders are on a bit of a roll right now, having just completed a 3-0-1 road trip.

They'll be looking to duplicate that level of performance on home ice tonight, a place where they've lost three straight, and are just 5-6-2 overall, getting outscored 11-3 during the 3-game slide.

But New York has won seven of nine in this series, including a 5-1 blowout victory on October 13th.

The Lightning have been anything but electrifying lately, and are coming off a 4-2 loss to Ottawa last night.

The Bolts have just three goals in their last five games combined.

I'm laying the price on the hot home side!

Mike Davis

Tulane vs. Wofford
Play: Wofford +3

Wofford is a program that has had great success as of late. However, they lost 5 seniors from last year's NCAA tournament team including 4 starters. They didn't return much this season. However, they did return two senior guards in Brad Loesing and Kevin Giltner. Coach Young has really leaned on these two guards this year. Loesing and Giltner are both averaging over 38.5 minutes per game. Giltner leads the team in scoring at 16.0 ppg while Loesing is averaging 12.4 ppg and 5.6 apg. The Terriers have received good production from several newcomers including true freshman guard Karl Cochran (9.9 ppg 5.4 rpg) who averages over 27 minutes per game. This team started slow and had an embarrassing loss at Wisconsin by 36 points. However, they have played better basketball as of late. In their last two games, both at home, the Terriers lost by 3 to a good Davidson ball club and they defeated The Citadel by 19. Tulane isn't as good as Davidson and they aren't as bad as The Citadel.

These two teams have one thing in common, both of them have a lot of newcomers. Coach Conroy of Tulane only returns 4 players who played decent minutes last season. Among the four returnees are both guards, Kendall Timmons and Jordan Callahan. These guys have played well so far this season. The Green Wave of Tulane have started the season 9-0 including a win in their last game over Georgia Tech at home. Now, they head on the road to play Wofford. Where's the motivation? On top of that, this is just their 2nd true road game. They barely escaped on the road vs. a bad Navy team 57-55 on November 22nd.

You could make the argument that Wofford will be the best team Tulane has played this season (Ga. Tech is bad, very bad). Wofford is at home for their third game in a row and they are starting to play better basketball. I like the Terriers in this spot for a small play.

EZWINNERS

Northern Iowa Panthers -8.5

It might be too early to have a whole lot of significance, but the Northern Iowa Panthers currently have an RPI of #4 on the nation. UNI is off to a strong 7-1 start with their only loss coming on the road against St. Mary’s who is currently ranked #11 in the Mid Major Top 25 poll. The Panthers are a very deep team that has about nine different players that could hurt you on any given night and the Northern Illinois defense has been excellent as they are allowing just 59 points per game which is tied for 41st in the nation. The Iowa Hawkeyes are 5-3 on the season with their three losses coming against Clemson, Drake and the Campbell Fighting Camels (Big South Conference)! Iowa likes to sit back in a zone on defense most of the time and they allow their opponents to shoot 35.1% from three point land which is 228th in the nation out of 300 teams. That makes this a real bad match up against a UNI team that is shooting 38.3% from downtown which is 54th best in the nation. The home team has won six out of the last eight meetings between these two teams. The Panthers are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen games against the Big Ten and the Hawkeyes are just 4-12 against the spread in their last sixteen games against teams from the Missouri Valley Conference. Lay the points.

Matt Fargo

Hawaii vs. Pacific
Play: Pacific -1½

This is an early season revenge game for Pacific which lost at Hawaii earlier this season and it still stings. The Tigers locked the game up at 70 apiece but Hawaii completed a three-point play with just a few seconds left and went on to win by five points. It was a game that could have gone either way and now catching the Warriors at home gives Pacific a golden opportunity to carry its momentum from a Saturday home win over Utah St. and extract its revenge tonight.

Hawaii is 0-2 away from the island this season including a loss at Pepperdine Saturday. The Warriors have the advantage of a travel edge of a short trip but being away from home for the last five days is still tough to overcome. Hawaii is very average offensively and does not pose a lot of problems for the opposition as it has only one real outside threat in guard Zane Johnson who has more three pointers than the rest of the team combined (15 to 10). It is easy for defenses to just key on him.

Pacific is having trouble scoring this season as it is averaging just 56.5 ppg on 35.7 percent shooting and that is not a big surprise as the Tigers are a brand new team. They lost all five starters from last year but with six games under their belts, things are getting easier. While there are no stars, there is a lot of depth when it comes to rebuilding as Pacific has 12 players averaging double-digits in minutes and that can be a big advantage against a team that is not nearly as deep.

The Tigers have always had a solid home court edge as Pacific has lost just 20 times in the last 109 non-conference matchups in the Spanos Center (89-20), for a winning percentage of .816 since 1989. They are 3-0 this season and Pacific is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite of three points or fewer. This is a great situation for some payback and we have a short number to deal with an as outright win likely means a cover as well.

Joseph D'Amico

George Mason vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Play: Virginia Cavaliers -9

At 7-1, Virginia's "D" is stifling, holding opponents to a mere 47.9 PPG. They have already beat up on Drexel, Drake, and Michigan, covering all three contests. As a matter of fact, the Cavalier's are 4-1 ATS on the season. Mike Smith is the ACC's active leader in career points, rebounds, and DDs. The senior Forward is averaging 15.9 PPG, 10.0 RPG, and is shooting 56.8% from the field. Having Joe Harris doesn't hurt either. The Guard is posting 12.6 PPG. They face a George Mason squad that is 6-2 on the season but just 2-4 ATS. They lost outright to Florida International as a 12-point favorite and just came off of a 65-53 win over Towson. Trust me, the game was a lot closer than the score. Vertrail Vaughns missed 14 straight three-point attempts against Towson. What will the Patriots do against a real defense? If Michigan couldn't penetrate the Virginia "D", George Mason will have a truly long night. The Patriots are 0-4 ATS their L4 games played on the road, 2-6 ATS their L8 games played vs. the ACC, and 2-5 ATS their L7 overall. The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS their L4 games played as a favorite, 4-0 ATS their L4 non-Conference games, and 19-7 their L26 games played overall. Take Virginia.

Ben Burns

Hurricanes @ Flames
PICK: Under 5.5

The Flames are off a 5-1 loss to the Canucks. That marked their third consecutive game which finished above the total. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair here though.

We do have to "lay some extra juice," in order to play "under 5.5" However, I feel that price is still fair. In fact, given the offensive struggles of both these teams, the number could easily have been five.

For starters, the Flames have seen the 'under' go a lucrative 67-48 the last 100+ times that they were off three or more consecutive games which finished above the total. More recently, note that the Flames have seen the "under" go 3-1-1 in this season's "non-conference" games (24-14-3 L2+ yrs) and an even better 6-1-1 when coming off a divisional game.

The Canes are off a 3-2 loss last game. They've now scored three or fewer goals in nine of their last 10 games. Over that 10-game stretch, they're averaging only two goals. Not surprisingly, the "under" was 6-3-1 in those games.

For the season, the Canes are averaging 2.4 goals. That's actually more than the Flames, who are a managing only 2.3 per game, including a mere 2.1 here at Calgary.

With Carolina's last three visits here (1-0, 3-0 and 4-1) all falling below the total, consider the UNDER.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Northern Iowa -8½

Iowa has typically been solid at home, but it has had more than its fair share of road woes in recent years. This is Iowa's first true road game of the season, and it likely won't go well. The Hawkeyes have played just one game away from home this season, a neutral floor battle with Creighton in Des Moines, and they were blown out by 23 points. That was largely a pro-Hawkeye crowd, but the majority will be rooting for the Panthers in this one. Iowa last visited Northern Iowa in 2009 and was clobbered by 17 points. The Panthers shot just 27.3% from the field in a 51-39 loss in Iowa City last year, but I see this one going much differently. Northern Iowa is shooting 52.9% at home this season and Iowa has allowed 4 of its last 5 opponents to shoot 51.9% or better. The Hawkeyes are coming off a 21-point home win over Brown but are 1-8 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since the start of the 2009 season. Iowa has lost these games by an average of 16.0 points. The Hawkeyes are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points. The Hawkeyes are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 in this series, including 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Northern Iowa. We'll lay the points.

Jack Jones

Pacific -2½

This is a classic revenge spot for Pacific tonight, and I'll side with them at home as a mere 2.5-point favorite because of it. Hawaii beat Pacific 75-70 at home in their first meeting of the season on November 25th. I have no doubt that the Tigers will return the favor here Tuesday.

Hawaii is simply not a good team this year. The Warriors are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS through their first five contests. They have only played two road games, losing on a neutral court to Gonzaga 54-73 and falling at Pepperdine 67-73.

Pacific has played a tougher schedule in the early going, and they are 3-3 SU & 2-2 ATS thus far. The Tigers have been like night and day home/away. Pacific is 3-0 at home this season, outscoring their opponents 71.3 to 62.7 on average. That includes a 65-57 win over Utah State last time out, which is impressive considering the Aggies are a perennial NCAA Tournament team.

Hawaii is 34-58 ATS in their last 92 after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. Pacific is 51-31 ATS in their last 82 home games after playing a home game. Hawaii is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Warriors are simply overrated, and the Tigers should be a bigger favorite in this revenge spot. Bet Pacific Tuesday.

Steve Janus

TCU -6½

My money is on TCU to not only win the game, but cover the 6.5-point spread over instate rival Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs come in off a upset win at Evansville for their third straight win, It was the third time this season TCU won as an underdog, including an impressive 57-55 win over Virginia.

While TCU has been one of the more underrated teams this season, Texas Tech is as overrated as they come. The Red Raiders snapped a 3-game losing streak with a less than impressive effort against Texas A&M Community College, as they won by a final of just 61-54. Texas A&M CC was given such little credit in that game that there wasn't even a line posted. It's hard to imagine the Red Raiders are feeling confident about their game, which usually leads to a blowout loss when playing on the road.

For those of you thinking of backing the Red Raiders in this game, Texas Tech is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.

Patrick Webb

Marshall vs. Syracuse
Play: Syracuse -16

Syracuse is an easy cover in this game. No matter how they show up offensively they should dominate Marshall on the defensive end. Syracuse is allowing only 57.7 points per game at home this season and are holding opponents to 36.7% from the field and 30.3% from three. Marshall enters this game shooting only 43% from the field and 26.3% from three. Syracuse is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games as a 13+ point favorite. Marshall is 1-5 ATS despite a 5-1 record. Marshall hangs in games with solid defense and rebounding. Syracuse is out-rebounding foes by 11.3 boards per game and have too many options offensively in this game. Syracuse has an advantage statistically in every facet of this game, have put teams away early, and should run away with this game.

SPORTS WAGERS

Detroit +160 over ST. LOUIS (3-way betting line)

The St. Louis Blues were a .500 team when Ken Hitchcock took over and since then they’ve gone 8-3. An expected surge took place but the Blue Notes have now dropped two in a row and there are some other red flags too. For instance, the Blues have scored exactly two regulation goals in each of their last eight games and that’s not going to get it done for an extended period of time. They’ve been living a charmed life by scoring twice and winning games. Brian Elliott has been outstanding between the pipes with a .945 save % and a GAA of 1.53. Those numbers are unsustainable and so is winning games when you’re scoring two goals every night. The Red Wings come in playing as good as anyone. They’re healthy and they’ve won seven of eight games. In those seven wins, Detroit scored four goals or more in six of them and an output like that almost guarantees us a trip to the cashier’s window. At worst, the game is a complete toss-up making this one another strong value play. Play: St. Louis +160 (Risking 2 units).

Columbus +220 over MONTREAL (3-way betting line)

In a game that could easily go either way, the Blue Jackets, or any other team for that matter, taking back a tag like this to beat the Canadiens is too good to pass up. Montreal rarely outplays anyone. They win games usually because of Carey Price. With the best goaltender in the league, the Habs are a .500 team. Montreal also returns home from a three-game trip to the West Coast. They’re one of two teams to lose to the Ducks in the past month and they’ve now lost four of their last five games. The Jackets are nine games under .500 but they’re better than that. They’ve picked up points in five of their past eight games and they figure to be a little extra jacked up to play at the Bell Center in Montreal. This is one of those historic hockey cities that teams that don’t get to play here often bring a little extra. The last time Columbus was here was way back in ’09 and they’ve only played in Montreal twice in the past 10 years. Expect a strong effort from this intruder. Play: Columbus +220 (Risking 2 units).

WINNIPEG +200 over Boston (3-way betting line)

This is strictly a situational play, as the Bruins are not only playing their third game in four days but they’re also playing the tail end of back-to-backs after a game in Pittsburgh last night. That’s after back-to-back games against the Maple Leafs. That’s three intense games in four days and one has to figure the B’s to let up at some point. Boston has picked up points in 15 straight games and interestingly enough, the Jets were one of the only teams to almost beat them during this amazing run. That occurred on November 26 in Boston when the Jets built a 2-0 lead but could not finish it. However, they outshot the Bruins 4-2 and played one of their best games of the year. Winnipeg has won five of its last six home games and you know for sure that the joint will be rocking and fans will be hanging off the rafters. Aside from their highly anticipated opener, this one has to be considered one of the biggest tickets of the season. In any case, this one is all about playing the Jets in an extremely favorable spot because that’s the only reason one could bet against the Bruins right now. Play: Winnipeg +200 (Risking 2 units).

Carolina +190 over CALGARY (3-way betting line)

Great spot for the Hurricanes in that they hit the road for the first of four games after being at home for three straight. Clubs embarking on a road trip often play its best game in the first leg. Also note that the Canes are winless for their new coach and reports are that the practices over the past couple of days have been highly spirited. That’s always a good sign, especially for a team that’s lost six in a row. Calgary is Calgary. They’re not going to put together any prolonged winning streaks and they’re about as average as they come. The Flames have won three of their past five games but they’re also coming off games against its two biggest rivals, Edmonton and Vancouver, both on the road. What we know for sure is that the Flames are beatable. The Canes are going to win a game for Kirk Muller on this four-game trip, that you can count on and all things point to this being that game. Play: Carolina +190 (Risking 2 units).