Karl Garrett
Sacramento at NEW ORLEANS -7
Monday night football comp play winner on the UNDER last night, now 4-1 the last 5 days with my comp plays.
NBA for Tuesday, and I am laying the points with the Hornets as they host a Sacramento team that has covered 8 straight in the series!
Time for that to change, as the Kings have dropped their last pair, and are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights tonight.
New Orleans meanwhile, has been off since Friday night's home win, but non- cover versus Minnesota. The Hornets home winning streak stands at 5 in a row, and the only non-cover in that span was Friday's non-cover against the Wolves, as the Hornets won by 9 points as the 9 1/2 point favorite.
While they have failed the last 8 in the series, the Hornets have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Going to lay it tonight, as the schedule most definitely favors the rested home team in this one.
3♦ NEW ORLEANS
Chris Jordan
Vanderbilt +4 at ILLINOIS
I don't like the make-up of the Illni one bit, and anyone who believes in a team whose defense has worsened since the season started needs to pay closer attention to college basketball this time of the year.
Said Illinois coach Bruce Weber about his team's defense: "It's something they have to start taking some pride in, understanding how important it is. We can score more points than last year ... but we've got to be solid (on defense)."
Anyone pay attention to how the Illini allowed Boise State to shoot nearly 56 percent from the field? And that was at Assembly Hall, where experience-laden Vanderbilt will take the court tonight.
I've been impressed by the Commodores since Day 1, as they've knocked off the likes of Arizona, Missouri and DePaul en route to a 6-1 start.
And how are they winning ball games? Offense. And what do you think a team averaging 76.1 points per game and that is in revenge will want to do? Vanderbilt returned three of its top players - Jefrey Taylor, A.J. Ogilvy and Jermaine Beal - and has a stud-freshman emerging as an impact player in John Jenkins.
And since the 'Dores are playing in sync, and the Illini are looking awfully pedestrian while their opponents drive the lane and have freshmen still learning the nuances of the struggling defense, I actually think this one could get out of hand early.
5♦ VANDERBILT
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
363 - 255 run 59 %
Free Play Tues Arizona St + 6 1/2
8)
Wunderdog
Iowa at Northern Iowa
Pick: Iowa +10
This will be an intensely played game as the Panthers’ annual clashes with Iowa State and Iowa usually are. I respect the Panthers’ talent and they certainly could win the MVC, but playing in a BCS Conference is never easy regardless of the talent because there is usually enough to stay in the game. Last year Iowa tore this team apart while the Panthers also lost to Iowa State. This year they slipped past Iowa State, but by just three points, and I don't see them taking a Hawkeyes team out by double-digits here. The Panthers are 0-4 ATS as a home favorite in this range and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 out-of-conference tilts. The dog has prevailed in this series in six of the last eight, so I'll go with Iowa in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
NY Islanders +1.64 over PHILADELPHIA
It sure is nice to see the Flyers buying into a new system under its new coach, Peter Laviolette. Since taking over two games ago the Flyers dropped the first one, 8-2 at home to the Caps and last night they managed 15 shots on net in a 3-1 loss to the Canadiens. Now the Flyers will play its third game in four nights against a rested and dangerous Islander team and they’ll play it as a -1.75 favorite. Are you kidding me? Win or lose, this one is a giant overlay and must be played for three reasons. One, the Flyers are a complete grease-fire right now; two, the tag and three, its goaltending remains as unreliable as any team in the league. Play: NY Islanders +1.64 (Risking 2 units).
OTTAWA -½ +1.05 over Montreal
Jaroslav Halak is the confirmed starter for the Habs and although he’s capable of a good game, he’s not been sharp this season and he’s not Carey Price. Despite winning last night the Canadiens mustered a lousy 13 shots on net. In fact, in five of its last eight games, Montreal has had 23 shots on net or less. The fact that Montreal is a .500 hockey club is remarkable because they might be the least talented club in the NHL and it might not be close. Anyway, when you keep getting outplayed it’ll eventually catch up to you and prior to winning two in a row the Habs went winless in four straight and lost five of six. This team is just not good enough to string together wins consistently and with no Carey Price in net, its chances of winning decrease dramatically. Halaks’ last strart was a 6-2 loss to the Sabres and his save percentage this year is an alarming .838. The Sens return home from a long west coast trip and that’s not the greatest scenario, however, even at their worst they should be this intruder and it’s worth noting that the team always gets extra juiced when Montreal is in town. Play: Ottawa -½ +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +12 over BOSTON
This is an extremely vulnerable spot for the Celtics. They’re on cruise control with a 16-4 record after sweeping a four-game trip through Miami, Charlotte, San Antonio and Oklahoma City. They returned home after Friday’s game and have not played since. They won all four games of its road trip and barely broke a sweat in three of them. Boston could be feeling a little complacent here and certainly there’s no urgency whatsoever. The C’s stock is high while the Bucks has hit a season low, thus creating an inflated line. Remember, Milwaukee shot out of the gate to an 8-3 record but has lost seven of eight and now sit a game under .500 at 9-10. There’s some urgency for them for sure and one has to trust they’ll be ready to play here. The Celtics are a team that ranks near the bottom of the league in every rebounding category including allowing second chance opportunities. At this level you can’t keep winning so easily when you get dominated on the glass and those shortcomings for the C’s has to catch up to them at some point. Play: Milwaukee +12 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
CHICAGO –7 +1.02 over New Jersey
The best thing about this game is that the Bulls are coming off a 32-point loss at home to the Raps. In fact, Chicago has dropped seven of eight and now sit four games under .500. This is no time to be taking anyone lightly and who better to take its frustrations out on than the New Jersey Nets. Of those seven recent losses by the Bulls, five of tem were by double-digits and one other was by nine. In other words, the Bulls have been manhandled and embarrassed by a slew of different opponents and no way do they not show up for this one after they hit rock bottom in its last game. Because of its recent slump the Bulls are undervalued here. Thing is they played some of the toughest teams in the NBA including three in succession against the Lakers, Nuggets and Blazers and all three were on the road. The Bulls will welcome this intruder and they won’t be in a sympathetic mood. Remember, against Toronto in its last game the Bulls were a 6-point favorite and now they’re a single point higher against this 1-19 dumpster-fire. Play: Chicago –7 +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Evansville +14 over WESTERN KENTUCKY
It’s amazing how public perception of a mid-major changes once they reach the tournament. Western Kentucky not only made the tournament last year, but they managed to upset Illinois in the first round before losing a very close game to Gonzaga in the second round. These results made Western Kentucky’s prestige rise significantly but also have made them a terrible bet thus far, as they show a 1-5 record against the spread and haven’t performed anywhere close to the level they were at last year. For them to lay 14 points when they can’t shoot from deep (29.5%) from the free throw line (64.8%) or defend anyone (50.3 FG% against) is ridiculous. Evansville isn’t a powerhouse by any stretch but played Butler close and at this point can be considered to be playing at the same level as Western Kentucky. The books will adjust the lines on the Hilltopper’s games but until they do so I’m going to fade a team that is a shell of last year’s team. Play: #531 Evansville +14 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
DENVER/Cal State Northridge over 144
What happens when a team playing at an extremely high pace meets a team that’s allergic to fast breaks? Usually, the team that runs baits the other into playing its style and that results in points. Even if Denver doesn’t run on every possession, you can feel comfortable they will get their points, as they shoot a prolific 57% on two-point field goals and an astounding 42.6% on three’s. Cal State Northridge isn’t as efficient as Denver, but they play at the eighth fastest pace in Division I and haven’t given up less than 68 points in any game this season. All the factors I look for are present when making over wagers and if this one happens to lose, you can take solace that both teams simply played out of character. Mix high tempo with remarkable efficiency and the results should be points on the scoreboard. Play: #536 DENVER/Cal State Northridge over 144 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
John Ryan
New Jersey Nets vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: New Jersey Nets +7
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on New Jersey as they take on the Chicago Bulls set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 73% probability that NJ will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 56-23 for 71% winners since 2004. Play on road dogs having lost 12 or more of their last 15 games facing an opponent after having lost 4 of their last 5 games. AiS shows an 85% probability that the Bulls will score between 87 and 92 points. Note that New Jersey is a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they allow 87 to 92 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Bulls are just 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) when they score 87 to 92 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Bulls also in a poor situation noting they are a terrible 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams with a shooting percentage defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons. Bulls have lost 7 of last 8 games are certainly one of the worst teams in the NBA currently. Take the Nets.
ALEX SMART
Pittsburgh @ Indiana
PICK: Indiana +9.5
The Panthers don't look like the same team that has made deep runs into the tournament in recent years, but HC Jamie Dixon has coached his team to a 7-1 record thanks to a stellar defense. U-Pitt ranks #8 in the land, allowing just 55.6 points per game, and that fantastic 'D' was on display when it held the Wildcats to just 23.5% from the field and seven total points in the first half on Friday. However, its offensive struggles were also very apparent, as Gs Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker scored 42 of the team's 47 points. They're the only two players on this team averaging double digits in scoring, and they'll probably need to carry the Panthers on the offensive end of the court for the majority of the season.
HC Tom Crean knows all about trying to rebuild a once proud program. The loss to Maryland was just another setback in a string of bad basketball betting results in recent memory for the Hoosiers. G Maurice Creek is doing the best that he can to keep Indiana afloat, but his 16.7 points per game and 50.6% shooting from the field just hasn’t been enough. Since beating Howard and South Carolina Upstate to start the season, the Hoosiers have allowed at least 69 points in all of their games, and currently sport a defense surrendering 71.7 points per game.
The Hoosiers have at least shown a bit of resiliency after getting their doors blown off at Assembly Hall, as they’re 5-1 ATS in their L/6 games following a double-digit loss. It makes no sense for a PITT team that’s struggled to do much offensively be this large a chalk on a neutral court. Well aware of their familiarity with the venue, and the fact that a key cog (Jermaine Dixon) might be returning to aid their cause offensively. Still look for the Hoosiers to save face and compete the whole way through.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on New Jersey Nets +7
The Nets have pretty much been an automatic fade this season at just 6-14 ATS, but the Bulls haven't been much better at just 5-12-1 ATS. Chicago is really struggling, having lost 7 of its last 8 games with 6 of those losses coming by 14 points or more. Yet, the public is all over Chicago blindly here because it is going up against the 1-19 Nets. However, the Bulls are just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 home games, 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite, and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Chicago is getting too much respect here. Look for New Jersey to take the Bulls right down to the wire and for us to collect in the process.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Sacramento Kings +9
Bottom Line: I know the Kings have struggled on the road this season, but they're not getting enough respect here. While Sac is just 1-7 on the road, it is 5-3 ATS. And while it is just 4-5 against New Orleans since the beginning of the 2007 season, it is 8-1 against the spread. The Kings are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and I'll grab them in the underdog role for 1 unit here.
Jack Jones
Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: Sacramento Kings +9
The Hornets do have Chris Paul back now, but this team is still just 8-11 on the season, scoring 99.3 ppg while allowing 103. The Kings might be 1-7 on the road this year, but they are only being outscored by 7.5 ppg in those contests. You get a below average team laying more points than their average defeat, and you'll see why this play has value.
Freddy Wills
Nuggets vs. Bobcats
Take Bobcats +3.5
I'm going with the Bobcats here as they are 21-10 in their last 31 ATS at home. This will be Denver's 3rd road game in 4 nights and although they are averaging 107.7 ppg in their last three road games it was against an average scoring defense ranked 19th overall (PHI, SA, MIN). Tonight they will go up against #1 ranked defense in the Charlotte Bobcats. Denver's game last night against the 76ers was not as bad as indicated. Although they won by 10 and covered the spread they were down by 2 going into the 4th and then out scored them 30-18 in the final period. The hustle and effort it took to do that is going to impact them here tonight against a team that loves to play defense. Even the 76ers out rebounded the Nuggets and the Bobcats should have the advantage on this one as well as they are +1.7 rebound margin at home and Denver is -2.2 rebound margin. Charlotte is also 22-7 in their last 29 following a straight up win. Also note that Charlotte already beat Cleveland and Atlanta at home as underdogs. Take the points here tonight with the public all over the Nuggets and the spread moving in reverse order.
Lenny Del Genio
Butler +2.5 vs Georgetown
Don't be fooled by Georgetown's 6-0 SU start. They have played no one of substance. In fact, their last four opponents were all non-lined teams with losing records. Their last game against a lined opponent was a 46-45 win over Temple as 10-point favorites. The Hoyas were a 16-15 SU team last year and have covered just 10 of their last 29 lined affairs. Butler has struggled against ranked opponents the last two seasons, but this is a phony ranked team. Undefeated neutral court favorites in the month of December are just 32-65 ATS since 1997. Take Butler.