Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, February 11

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Clemson at Notre Dame
The Irish look to snap a two-game losing streak tonight against a Clemson team that is coming off a 57-44 loss to Syracuse and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games after scoring less than 50 points in the previous game. Notre Dame is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Irish favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-4 1/2)

Game 515-516: Oklahoma State at Texas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 66.485; Texas 77.120
Dunkel Line: Texas by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 4
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-4)

Game 517-518: Clemson at Notre Dame (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 60.189; Notre Dame 66.609
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-4 1/2)

Game 519-520: Wake Forest at NC State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 58.628; NC State 66.616
Dunkel Line: NC State by 8; 145
Vegas Line: NC State by 5 1/2; 140
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-5 1/2); Over

Game 521-522: Florida at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 73.836; Tennessee 74.707
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 1; 119
Vegas Line: Florida by 2; 127
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+2); Under

Game 523-524: Marquette at Seton Hall (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marquette 65.794; Seton Hall 64.965
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 1; 127
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 2; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marquette (+2); Under

Game 525-526: Southern Illinois at Wichita State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 58.167; Wichita State 72.701
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 17
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (+17)

Game 527-528: Michigan at Ohio State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 74.951; Ohio State 70.440
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 4 1/2; 124
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 4; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+4); Under

Game 529-530: Mississippi at Alabama (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 60.171; Alabama 66.074
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 6; 144
Vegas Line: Alabama by 4; 139
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-4); Over

Game 531-532: Xavier at Butler (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 62.567; Butler 65.628
Dunkel Line: Butler by 3; 138
Vegas Line: Xavier by 1; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Butler (+1); Over

Game 533-534: Utah State at Colorado State (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 58.946; Colorado State 60.487
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 1 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 4 1/2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+4); Under

Game 535-536: San Diego State at Wyoming (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 68.052; Wyoming 61.972
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 6; 124
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 4; 118 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-4); Over

Freddy Wills

Oklahoma State vs. Texas
Play: Oklahoma State +4

The early onset is everyone pounding Texas after Oklahoma State's debacle with Marcus Smart who is one of the Cowboys better players. I'm going to fade the public this Oklahoma State team had lost 4 straight and honestly I think this is an opportunity for the players to come together and go get a big win. I think there is far too much value on Oklahoma State here when you consider the line has moved 16.5 points from when Oklahoma State hosted and defeated Texas in January. Oklahoma State is a team that's quickly becoming a team on the bubble and this win would go a long way towards their tournament hopes. I won't be shocked to see them in this game until the last second.

Freddy Wills's Featured Package

Rob Vinciletti

Xavier vs. Butler
Play: Xavier

Xavier already beat Butler once this season and has won the last 4 in the series. The Musketeers are 8-2 vs teams ranked between 50 and 150 in the RPI Scale. Butler is 0-5 vs all top 50 schools this season. Butler has also lost and failed to cover 6 of 8 off a conference loss and 4 of 5 when playing on Tuesday. Xavier is 6-1 after allowing less than 40% shooting from the field, 12-3 as a favorite and 7-0 after allowing 60 or less points. Look for Xavier to emerge with a win and cover here tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Utah vs. Los Angeles
Play: Over 201½

Utah is not much of a defensive team, 26th in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, allowing .463%. The offense is off a nice game, a 94-89 win over the Miami Heat. The young Jazz, who entered the game with the worst record in the Western Conference, relied on their two veterans Marvin Williams and Richard Jefferson down the stretch until rookie Trey Burke's big shot late. Utah is 4-1 over the total playing on two days rest and that offense gets to face a terrible LA defense, one ranked 29th in points allowed. After playing a slow paced game with Chicago, the Lakers will look forward to running and gunning on their home court, on a 10-4 run over the total. The over is 8-2 in the Lakers last 10 games following a loss and 22-8 over the total against the NBA Northwest division. And when these teams meet the over is 18-8 in the last 26 meetings in Los Angeles.

Don Best Consensus

San Diego St at Wyoming
Pick: Over

San Diego State is 21-1 and riding high. Wyoming is 11-2 at home and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in Laramie. The public loves SDSU tonight, but it seems a little too easy for our tastes. But most of us can agree that this will be a high scoring game with plenty of quick buckets scored in transition to help push this one over the total.

Ben Burns

Sacramento Kings vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -1

The Kings hammered the Cavaliers (124-80) when these teams met at Sacramento last month. This one sets up nicely for the Cavs to get some payback.

The Kings rarely win on the road. They're already 0-2 SU/ATS to start their current trip.

The Cavs aren't great at home but their 12-13 record here is a lot better than the Kings' 6-18 mark on the road.

The Cavs are off back-to-back wins, holding Memphis to just 83 points last time out. They can move back to .500 at home with a win here and I like their chances of doing so. Consider Cleveland.

Art Aronson

Sacramento Kings vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -1

The Cleveland Cavaliers (18-33) have quietly won two in a row since the firing of former GM Chris Grant and I expect we see the team come out on top again here against a poor road team in Sacramento. The Cavaliers come into this game with a few other strong motivations as well. Cleveland will look revenge a 44 point loss in Sacramento back in mid January. Secondly, with a strong win here, the Cavs will move to .500 on home court this season. Adding to the advantage here, a the Kings are just 6-18 SU on the road this season and has lost six in row going into this game. The Cavs most important player in Kyrie Irving has really started to play some good basketball, scoring 28 points in the win over Memphis and 23 in the win at Washington. With Irving this team goes and a healthy and producing player is what he is now. With a crappy east this season, the Cavs are still on the hunt for a playoff spot and will look to finish of this last stretch of games before the all-star break strong. Lay the short points with Cleveland.

Jesse Schule

Sacramento Kings vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -1

Cleveland will play it's final home game before the All Star break against Sacramento tonight. The Cavs can move to .500 at home with a win over the struggling Kings.

Sacramento lost at Washington on Sunday, and their road record is nothing short of pathetic, winning just 6-of-24 away from home. Rudy Gay didn't look very good in Washington, scoring just five points on 2-of-11 shooting while playing 32 minutes. He missed the previous game in Boston, and may still be feeling the effects of an illness.

The Cavs earned a hard fought win over Memphis at home on Sunday, and Kyrie Irving led the way with 28 points on 9-of-17 shooting. He comes into tonight's game feeling the hot hand, averaging 22 points per game over his last five.

The Kings have lost six road games in a row, and they were held to just 35.4% from the floor in Washington on Sunday.

We get great value with the Cavs at home here, not having to lay any points.

Justin Bay

Southern Illinois vs. Wichita State
Play: Wichita State -17

Southern Illinois
- Average 66 PPG on the road
- Allow 70 PPG on the road
- SOS on the road: 99.93

Wichita State
- Average 72 PPG @ home
- Allow 57 PPG @ home
- SOS @ home: 100

Marc Lawrence

Sacramento vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland

Double clothespin alert... one will not be enough! We completely understand that in the eyes of many, the Cavaliers hit rock-bottom with last Wednesday night’s loss to a D-League Lakers team at home one that thanks to foul-outs and injuries were down to just four players. In addition, All-Star Kyrie Irving has officially become a malcontent and team chemistry appears shot. But hear us out. Cleveland suffered a 124-80 loss at Sacramento a month ago and if there’s one thing that cannot be denied in today’s NBA, it’s the overwhelming pride of these players. That and the fact that Cleveland immediately fired GM Chris Grant, and with it a new sense of togetherness is forming in the locker room these days. The Cavs are 18-3 SU and 16-5 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more points with revenge versus sub .375 Western Conference foes. Meanwhile, Sacramento is just 1-7 ATS in this series when Cleveland is playing with revenge from a loss of 8 or more points, and 2-10 ATS on the road versus a foe with revenge from a loss of 33 or more points. So with sub .365 home teams playing with revenge from a loss of 40 or more points on a 13-6 ATS winning skein, we think this is the spot to take a deep breath, apply the industrial strength clothespins (2 of them) and get ready to send it in. Go Cavs! We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Bryan Power

Miami vs. Phoenix
Pick: Miami

Road favorites have never been my thing, but I'll make an exception here w/ the Heat, who are off a loss. Off their previous three SU losses, Miami has come back to win by at least seven points every time, twice by a 15-point margin. Speaking of 15-point margins of victory, that's what the Heat beat the Suns by in November...

Prior to the surprise loss to the Jazz on Sunday, the Heat had won 6 of 7 and shot nearly 53 percent from the field. LeBron James, unsurprisingly led the way, scoring 30+ points in three of his last four games and shot his normal 52% or better 9 of 10 games. However, James nor his teammates came even close to those numbers Sunday. The 84 pts scored were their lowest in a game since December 10th and James finished w/ only 13 points, his second lowest total since coming over from Cleveland. Collectively, the team shot only 43.3 percent.

Phoenix is 6-2 SU/ATS its last eight games after beating Golden State by 13 Sunday. I was surprised to see them come through there as previously they'd dropped B2B games to Chicago and Houston by a combined 23 points. This will be the Suns' final game before the All-Star Break. I just think that the four points aren't enough here.

Chase Diamond

Sacramento Kings vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -124

This game features the 17-34 Kings at the 18-33 Cavs. The Cavs are a much better home team as they are 12-13 at home and have won 2 games straight. The Kings are a awful road team as they are 6-18 on the road straight up and have lost 2 games straight. The Public is all over road Kings team at a 61% rate and here too we are seeing vast sharp movement towards a Cavs play. Take the Cavs to win for a free Premium play winner.

Chase Diamond's Featured Package

EZWINNERS

Oklahoma State +4

I think that this game will see a lot of money on Texas as this line seems very low for the 19th ranked Longhorns against a reeling Cowboys team that will be without Marcus Smart due to suspensin, but my gut feeling tells me that Oklahoma State is the play. Texas had reeled off seven straight wins before their blowout loss at Kansas State on Saturday and I don't expect them to bounce back with a blowout win in this game. The loss of Marcus Smart is big for OSU, but in sports we've seen it time and time again where a star is out and the rest of the team steps up for at least one game. Markel Brown I believe will be the player that will step up with Smart out. Brown is the teams second leading scorer at 16.6 points per game and had a season high 27 points going 8 of 13 from the field against Texas in the first meeting. The Longhorns may also be without their leading scorer in this game as they wait for MRI results on Jonathan Holmes' knee injury that occured in the Kansas State game on Saturday. Take the points.

Alex Smart

Dallas Mavericks vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Dallas Mavericks -3

The Mavericks enter this tilt against their host Charlotte Bobcats having won 4 straight games, and are currently opperating at a high level. Meanwhile the Bobcats despite of being alot more competitive than the were last season, still make alot of mistakes, especially it seems. vs experienced teams like Dallas. That was evident in their last trip to hardwood, against a injury riddled San Antonio squad that beat them by a 104-100 count.

The bottom line: Dallas is currently playing with a purpose, with their sights set on a playoff run, and are locked in to their task, while the Bobcats despite of being more confident in their play, still lack the fortitude and the mind set to be a consistent team. While , that goal may eventually come to fruition for the Bobbies, tonight I believe that their learning curve will be tested in a big way.

It must be noted that Dallas has won 18 of the L/19 meetings in this series, and have been a strong road team on the ATS front , as their betting backers have cashed 38 of their L/51 (75% conversion rate) when they are in the visitors role.

Alex Smart's Featured Package