SPORTS WAGERS
TENNESSEE +111 over Florida
Backing Florida today looks like the sucker play of the day and it’s for that reason among others that we’re going to side with Tennessee. These two met back in Florida on January 25 and the Gators walloped the Vols by 26, while holding them to a season low 41 points. Billy Donavan’s team haven’t lost since Dec. 2. This is also the second consecutive unbeaten January for Florida. High school All-American Chris Walker joins a front line that can really protect the rim. Patric Young can guard in the post and on ball screens, Will Yeguete can guard big or small while Dorian Finney-Smith is an excellent defensive rebounder. Florida has five guys averaging double figures, and Michael Frazier is the best threat from downtown. From Jan. 25 until their win over Alabama, Florida allowed the fewest points per game (46.5) in the nation. The Gators played four games during that stretch, forcing three of the four opponents into season lows in both points and field goal percentage. Florida is 6-2 against the BPI Top 50, and has allowed less than 50 points per game over its last five contests. Yeah, they look good but they look too good spotting less than a bucket against the 15-8 Volunteers and that’s a red flag.
Tennessee is just 6-4 in the conference and they don’t have a signature road win all season. They are a bubble team right now and need at least two more quality wins to even be considered for an at-large bid. However, the Vols three games against three ranked opponents were all on the road. Against Wichita State they lost by just nine and at Kentucky, the Vols held their own for a half but couldn’t finish, eventually losing by eight. At home, however, the Vols have some really impressive wins that include a flawless 25-point win over #17 Virginia, a 16-point win over Ole Miss and a 15-point win over Xavier. The Vols are beasts on the boards, they turn the ball over less than the Gators and they’re also averaging more points. That blowout loss to Florida was just one of those games that happen from time to time. The oddsmakers have given the Vols a huge mulligan for that performance but this line strongly suggests the oddsmakers expect a complete turnaround here. Even with Florida's offseason talent infusion, we’re not convinced that Florida has enough low-post muscle outside of foul-prone center Patric Young to control the paint against Tennessee's wide-bodied bigs, Jarnell Stokes and Jeronne Maymon. The Vols have been nice under-the-radar money makers and are worthy of support as an underdog again here.
Mississippi +4 over ALABAMA
We have absolutely no interest in spotting points with a Crimson Tide squad that is still looking for its first noteworthy victory of the season. It has beaten up on bottom feeders but has failed repeatedly when taking any step up in class. The Crimson Tide has also been finding ways to lose close games. They've dropped six of their past seven overall and they’re not confident right now. It’s usually not a good idea to trust a team that is losing every time out when the games mean more now than they did earlier in the year. Alabama ranks 291st in the country in assists per game and 265th in rebounds per game.
Ole Miss has been whacked in its last two road games in Tennessee and Kentucky by 16 points both games. Those are the Rebels only two losses over their past eight games. During that stretch they have victories at Vanderbilt and South Carolina and certainly are not taking a step up in class when facing this reeling program. The Rebels are much deeper than the Crimson Tide and they figure to win the all-important battle of the boards here. Ole Miss averages 77 points per game and that ranks them 48th in the country. There's a bit of a class difference here, making this a very tough matchup for the Crimson Tide and their inability to finish off opponents makes them a good fade, even at home.
Pass NBA
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Florida/ Tennessee Under 129.5: When these teams met earlier in the year there was just 108 points scored in that game and I don't see a whole lot to make me think this game will make in into the 120's here. The Gators did allow 69 points to Alabama in their last game, but that is not normal for this team as they have allowed just 57.9 ppg on the year and they had allowed just 51.3 ppg in their 7 games prior to the Alabama game. You can bet that they will come out with more focus at the defensive end of the floor in this one. The Gators are not a strong offense team, especially on the road, where they have averaged just 69.3 ppg and they will be facing a Tennessee team that has allowed just 63.3 ppg at home. The Vols average 77.7 ppg, but they won't come close to that vs this angry Gator defense. I expect more than the 108 points that were scored in the first meeting, but I don't expect more than 120.
Wyoming/ San Diego State Under 118: Wyoming has a knack for dragging teams into their style of play and this one should be no different. Actually the Aztecs should oblige, since they don't play uptempo basketball anyway. The Cowboys just took on an uptempo UNLV team and nearly won the game with the slow down score, bust still just 94 total points were scored in that game. This game features two very strong defensive teams as the Aztecs check in allowing just 56.6 ppg (3rd in nation) on just 37.1% shooting (3rd in nation), while the Cowboys have allowed just 60.4 ppg (15th) on 40.4% shooting (54th). Here is a good indication of how slow the Cowboys play, they are 14th in the nation in FG% (48.8%), but just 303rd in scoring at 65.3 ppg. The Aztecs are average on offense, scoring just 73.4 ppg on 44.3% shooting, which is 184th in the nation, plus they are ranked just 298th at the charity stripe, hitting just 65.7% of their free throws. This should be an ugly offensive display vs two accomplished defenses in what should be an extremely slow paced game. Look for around 110 points in this one.
2 UNIT PLAY
Texas/ Oklahoma State Over 145.5: Texas would love an uptempo game and Oklahoma State can play that way as well. I know the Cowboys will miss Marcus Smart, but he has been a distraction to the team at times thus year, so you have to feel that Markel Brown & company will look to have a big game on offense, now that they can play a bit more freely. The Cowboys have averaged 77 ppg on the road this year and they come in really struggling on defense, allowing 80.4 ppg in their last 5 games. The Longhorns aver 76 ppg overall and 77 ppg at home, so I really expect them to take advantage of that struggling Oklahoma State defense, that is weakened even more with the loss of Smart. Texas has played good defense this year this in an uptempo game like this vs an angry Oklahoma State team I expect them to struggle at that end of the floor. I can see this one hitting at least 150 points.
Chris Jordan
My free play for Tuesday night is on the Sacramento Kings, plus the point in Cleveland against the Cavaliers.
While the Cavaliers are looking for their third straight win tonight, when they host Sacramento, I think they're in store for a rude awakening. Lest we forget this is the game Kings team that blew the Cavs out just last month and comes in riding win streaks of 4-0 overall in this series, and 6-0 in Cleveland.
The Kings, who have covered six of their last seven after failing to do so their previous time out, have lost nine of 11 overall and six straight on the road. I am well aware. But this is the right time - and team - to snap a skid like that and pick up a little momentum.
Yes, the Kings have won just six road games this season, and though they looked rather bleak in Boston and Washington D.C., this is a step down in class, against the Cavaliers.
Plus, the underdog is on a 6-1 ATS win streak in the series, while the road team has covered seven of the last eight meetings.
Take the road team here.
1♦ SACRAMENTO
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Miami Heat to get back in the win column at the expense of the Phoenix Suns.
Miami is off a surprising loss at Utah, but the Heat does sport a 7 game winning streak over the Suns, and they are 6-1 against the spread in those 7 wins.
Phoenix is improved this year under first year coach Jeff Hornacek, and they did snap their mini-2 game losing streak with the win their last time out, but facing a Miami Heat team that was held to just 89 points at Utah, one would tend to think that the Suns may be playing the Heat on the wrong night.
Going to look for the series domination to continue to night for Miami. Take the visiting Heat to get a bounce-back win and cover in this spot.
2♦ MIAMI
Craig Davis
Today's free play of the day is on the Portland TrailBlazers to cool off the hot OKC Thunder up in the great northwest.
Portland has already beaten OKC twice this year and nearly had the 3-0 lead in the series, but blew a 95-88 lead in the 4th quarter because they failed to make a field goal over the final 7+ minutes of the game (not counting a gimme layup with 7 seconds remaining).
So, despite the fact I predicted the Thunder to win the championship this year, I just don't think they match up well with Portland... especially without Westbrook.
Westy might not be the best defender, but he's the only player on their roster than can stay with Damian Lillard and be physical with him. No, I'm not saying he can stop him, but he can cause him some frustration.
Even though Serge Ibaka has been playing better as the season goes on, he's going to need to play perfect defense to stop LaMarcus Aldridge... and that's still no small task.
It should be a great game to watch, but in the end Portland (at home) will be too strong for OKC.
4♦ PORTLAND
Scott Delaney
My free play is from the NBA tonight, as I love the Under in the Sacramento/Cleveland game, thinking these two will play rather pedestrian.
Four of the past five meetings have stayed low, and even though Sacramento has scored 124 points in each of the last two meetings, When these two meet in Cleveland, the under has cashed in three of the last four meetings.
Sacramento is in after two straight road games, as part of a four-game road trip that ends in New York tomorrow night. In both games, the Kings have scored an average of just 86.5 points per game. Now they take on a Cleveland team that will be out for revenge for a blowout loss in Sacremeno last month.
I don't think I like the odds of a laying points with a bad Cleveland team, but this number of 204 seems kind of high when two bad teams get together.
Checking the betting numbers, the Kings have stayed low in six straight road games, five of six when playing on one day's rest, eight of their last nine against losing teams and seven of eight overall. With the Cavaliers, they're in on under runs of 4-0 after an ATS cover, 5-0 after a straight-up win, 9-1 at home and 5-2 against the West.
1♦ Kings/Cavaliers Under
Brad Wilton
Revenge time for the Longhorns who lost at Stillwater, 87-74 back on January 8th, as Oklahoma State ran their series winning streak to 4 in a row over Texas.
The dynamics of tonight's showdown have changed dramatically, as Cowboys guard Marcus Smart will be sidelined due to suspension, and Travis Ford's team will also be on the road which has proven difficult for the Pokes.
Oklahoma State has covered only once in their last 9 lined road games, and they also happen to be riding a season-high 4 game losing streak.
Texas is back home after being upended at Kansas State their last time out, as the Horns saw their 7 game winning streak halted in Manhattan.
At home, the Longhorns have won 12 of their 14 games straight up, and that home court advantage will be key to them ending the 4 game series slide.
The favorite in this series is 8-2-2 against the spread the last dozen series meetings.
Go with Texas to keep Oklahoma State in the loss column.
2♦ TEXAS
Gabriel Dupon
My free play for today is on the Washington Wizards, in Memphis, against the Grizzlies, as the road team is most certainly the right side of this game.
Why the Washington Wizards can cover this number - John Wall is going into the All-Star break looking like a true stud, and is on the verge of having a breakout season that puts him on superstar status. He's already helped lead the Wizards over .500 once this season, and will be out to guide his troops to a 26-25 mark against an unsuspecting opponent.
Why the Memphis Grizzlies isn't even a threat in this game - The Grizzlies have lost three of their last four games, and though it's obvious they're looking to get a bounce back win at home, they're not necessarily that great of a scoring team. And though the Grizzlies only allow their opponents to score roughly 95 points per game, Wall scored a career-high 47 points against the Grizzlies last season.
In conclusion, why Washington is my SMART FREE PLAY in this game - I have to go back to Wall, because he truly does spark this team. The Wizards - in my honest opinion - go as he goes. Washington's scoring margin is a ridiculous +15.1 points every 100 possessions with Wall on the hardwood.
And the inside-outside game is a true threat now that Washington has depth in the paint. In fact, all five Washington starters average double figures in scoring, and that's going to cause huge problems for a Grizzlies team that won't have enough defensive intensity to keep up with this new-look Wizards team.
4♦ WASHINGTON
Harry Bondi
CLEMSON (+4.5) over Notre Dame
Tonight, we just can't see how the Irish are favored by this much over anyone right now. Not only is Notre Dame 2-8 ATS in its last ten games, but it is a dismal 1-10 ATS as a favorite, 2-11 ATS at home and 6-10 ATS against teams with a winning record. The Irish are also a bad rebounding team and that doesn't bode well against a stifling Clemson defense that leads the league in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage, so don't expect Notre Dame to get many second looks at the basket. Take the generous points.