Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, February 1,2011

James Patrick Sports

Avalanche vs. Blues

In Tuesday NHL action the Big Man has a complimentary selection on St. Louis Blues as the Home team is (4-1) in the last (5) series meetings with the Blues (4-1) in their last (5) Tuesday games.

Marc Lawrence

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

Yes, we've told you that the Lakers were burning money at home this season faster than Lawrence Taylor at a strip joint or Charles Barkley at a craps table. However, L.A. enters tonight's affair off back-to-back straight up home losses with a 5-0 SU and ATS mark in this series with same-season revenge. The Rockets topped the Lakers, 109-99, in Houston in early December as 6-point underdogs but don’t find themselves in a good spot for a repeat performance. They’re coming off a pair of Texas revengers (Dallas, San Antonio) and are just 7-17 ATS away after battling Tim Duncan and company. Rick Adelman’s men are also eyeing a couple of same-season revengers with Utah and Memphis and are just 8-16 ATS before all that Jazz. It’s been a ‘long, long time’ since these Rocket men beat the Lakers twice in a row in the same season (2007) and it won’t happen tonight. By the book, Los Angeles gets the win and the money. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Lakers.

Tom Freese

San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs

Portland is 25-22 straight up this year. The Trailblazers are 2-6 ATS their last 8 home games and they are 3-7 ATS their last 10 games overall. The Blazers are 1-4 ATS following a double digit loss at home. Portland is 1-5 ATS when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. San Antonio is 40-7 Straight Up this year. The Spurs are 19-7 ATS their 26 games following a double digit win. The Spurs are 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 games overall. San Antonio is 6-1 ATS their last 7 Conference games. The Spurs are 9-4 ATS their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Terron Chapman

Spurs vs. Trail Blazers
Play: Under 191.5

After suffering consecutive losses at home, the Portland Trail Blazers will look to regain some sort of home court advantage Tuesday evening when they play host to the league-leading San Antonio Spurs. Portland had a five-game win streak snapped with an embarrassing 96-81 home loss to the Sacramento Kings Jan. 24 before falling to the Boston Celtics, 88-78, Thursday night.

The Spurs on the other hand continue to roll after Saturday’s, 108-95 win over the Houston Rockets. It was their third win in a row and pushed their record to a league best 40-7. San Antonio’s visit to the Rose Garden will be the first game of their 2011 Rodeo road trip in which they’ll will visit nine different cities over the course of 17 days and travel 8,965 miles.

The Trail Blazers had a five-game run over the Spurs snapped in San Antonio on Dec.12, falling 95-78 in the first meeting of the series this year. San Antonio hit 9-of-17 3-pointers (52.9 percent) and made 15 more free throws than Portland (22-7). However, Portland held San Antonio to 23.7 percent shooting from 3-point range during last year’s matchups (3-0) and we expect a similar defensive effort Tuesday.

The Blazers have had success against the Spurs recently because they are able to control the tempo, particularly at home. In fact, Portland has not allowed San Antonio to reach 100 points since Dec. 2, 2007, a streak of nine games. San Antonio is fifth in the league in scoring (104.4 pts/gm), although they seem to be slowing down recently, averaging 101.2 pts/gm over the last five games.

Despite back-to-back losses, the Rose Garden is still a tough place to play as the Spurs can attest--having lost their last four in Portland. The Blazers will be determined to avoid a third straight loss at home, and should be eager to exact some revenge against the Spurs in the process. For them to do so, they’ll need to step it up defensively. Look for a low-scoring, tightly contested affair that should fall short of scoring expectations. Play UNDER the total for 1 unit.

Charlie Scott

Purdue vs. Wisconsin
Play: Over 122.5

Wisconsin Head Coach Bo Ryan said his team could learn from the Penn st loss on Saturday and emphasized that they must shoot better on offense. Wisconsin is a much better scoring Team @ Home and their shooting should improve with some Home Cooking. In 4 Big 10 Home games Wisconsin is 3-1 OVER 122. While Purdue hasn't had a game score lower than 122 since DEC 18 vs Indiana st. Bet OVER & Bet Early as this Total is a bad # and will rise !

Scott Spreitzer

Penn State @ Illinois
PICK: Penn State +8

The Nittany Lions are 12-8, 9-6-1 ATS and 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings with Illinois. Five of the last seven meetings were decided by two points or less, including a 57-55 win for the Nittany Lions on Jan. 11 even though they shot just 34.6 percent from the field. Penn State has won four of its past six games whith the only losses being on the road against Ohio State and Purdue, who are arguably the two best teams in the Big 10 Conference. Guard Talor Battle leads the team with 20.4 points per game and forward Jeff Brooks averages 13.9 points, 7.5 rebounds and has a 57.7 field goal percentage. Illinois is 14-7, 10-11 ATS and has lost four of its last five games (1-4 ATS). The Fighting Illini are coming off an ugly loss at Indiana on Saturday when they shot just 32.2 percent and made only 5 of 20 three-point attempts. Guard Demetri McCamey is the leading scorer with 15.1 points per game and averages 6.9 assists. But truth be told, he's been a disappointment in step-up situations. Penn State has covered the spread their last six games in a row and look for that trend to continue on Tuesday. I'm taking the points with Penn State.

Jim Feist

Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Take: Los Angeles Lakers -8½

The Lakers have been getting hammered for not playing any defense of late, but the Rockets haven't been playing it all season, allowing 105 ppg -- 24th in the league. And Houston allows .469% shooting, ranked 23rd, with a lack of big men. The Lakers are off that embarrassing national TV loss to the Celtics allowing 60% shooting, so look for a bounce back effort under the glass against a small, soft team. The Rockets are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Western Conference and 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Play the LA Lakers.

EZWINNERS

Boston College Eagles +2

Boston College has had a lot of success recently against the Tar Heels as they have won three straight over North Carolina and I look for the Eagle to defend their home court in this game. Boston College has dropped two straight and three of four, all on the road, but is 3-0 at home in the ACC. North Carolina is back in the Top 25 for the first time in more than two months, but it could be a short stay if they drop this game tonight like I think they will. The Tar Heels have won three straight and eight out of their last nine games, but I like the veteran Boston College team to take care of this young UNC team that does not have a Senior in the starting lineup. The Tar Heels are just 9-22 against the spread in their last thirty one Atlantic Coast Conference games. Take the points.

ROCKETMAN

Kansas vs. Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech +13½

Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS at home vs Kansas since 1997. Jayhawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Jayhawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Tuesday games. Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Texas Tech. Kansas is 0-3 SU at Texas Tech under coach Self. Last time Kansas played at Texas Tech they were 10 point road favorite and lost outright by 19 points. Texas Tech has won 3 games in a row against decent teams in Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Nebraska. We'll recommend a small play on Texas Tech tonight!

BEN BURNS

Boston Bruins @ Carolina Hurricanes
PICK: Carolina Hurricanes

These teams played a "home and home" series against each other a couple of weeks ago. The Bruins "crushed" the Canes in the opening game, a 7-0 victory at Boston, on 1/17.

The Canes played much better when the teams faced each other the following day. In fact, they held a 45-28 edge in shots on goal. However, they still came up short, falling 4-3. Those results should ensure a highly motivated effort here.

Captain Eric Staal said this of the last meeting here at Raleigh: "We didn't get the results that we wanted, but our compete level was there and we … couldn’t find a way to get the puck to the back of the net."

Note that Carolina went 6-1-1 at home in January; the lone regulation loss was the one vs. the Bruins.

While Boston is admittedly a solid team, the Canes are a profitable 31-25 (+13.4) the past few years, when facing a team with a winning record, during the second half of the season.

During that stretch, they've also gone a respectable 44-34 (+2.9) when playing a home game, with an O/U line of 5.5. With the home fans still "buzzing" from the All Star festivities, consider backing revenge-minded Carolina.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Houston Rockets at LA Lakers

The Lakers have failed to score 100 points in back to back losses to Sacramento and Boston, but we expect that to change tonight at home vs. Houston. LA is an impressive 12-1 Over playing at home off BB home losses + the Rockets are allowing an average of more than 108 PPG on the road this season.

Play on: Over

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Boston College +3

Off back-to-back road losses to two of the ACC's elite (FSU, Duke), Boston College will be out for blood when it steps back on its home court tonight against a young UNC squad that has been inconsistent away from home. Boston College has played the Tar Heels as tough as anyone in recent years. In fact, the Eagles are 2-0 SU and ATS the last 2 seasons against UNC. Strictly from a point spread standpoint, the Eagles are on 3-0 and 6-2 ATS runs versus the Tar Heels. You can tell a lot about what odds makers expect to happen based on the total. In this case, the total favors the Eagles. Consider that UNC is 0-6 ATS on the road when the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons. The Tar Heels are losing these games by an average score of 74.7 to 63.3. The Tar Heels are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less while the Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that the Tar Heels are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 vs. the ACC. UNC is constantly overvalued by odds makers because of the betting attention it receives. We'll look to take advantage tonight.

Matt Fargo

Marshall vs. Houston U
Play: Houston U +2.5

I don’t understand this line. Marshall is coming off a home blowout of an overrated Memphis team to improve to just 2-4 in the conference and now the Thundering Herd are road favorites for the first time this season? They have had their share of big wins, including a neutral court win against rival West Virginia a couple weeks ago but Marshall is still just 3-5 on the road this season with the three wins coming against Ohio, Savannah St. and St. Bonaventure. The Herd are 0-3 on the road in C-USA. Houston is not having a great season either but it still possesses a winning record overall and its 9-2 record at home cannot be discounted. The Cougars have lost three straight games and while losses certainly are not good, they were within the reach of a win in all three games. They lost by five points at home to UTEP despite outshooting the Miners, they lost in overtime at Rice and then lost at East Carolina despite outshooting the Pirates there as well. This is a great opportunity for a bounceback. The big culprit in these last three losses for the Cougars has been the free throw line. They have not been outshot badly as it has been 68.9 percent to 64 percent but it was the opportunity. The opposition went to the line 87 times compared to 50 times for Houston and that resulted in 28 more makes from the stripe. Hardly any team can overcome that, especially when it has come over a three-game stretch. Marshall is shooting just 63.1 percent from the free throw line over its last five games. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog while Marshall is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite. The Thundering Herd have struggles against similar opposition as they are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 road games against above .500 teams with a winning percentage of .600 or less. The home team has had the edge with a 4-1 ATS record over the last five meetings in this series. 3* Houston Cougars

Cajun Sports

Penn State vs. Illinois
Play: Penn State +8

Penn State travels to Champaign to face Illinois on Tuesday night at Assembly Hall for a conference showdown. The Nittany Lions have proven they can hang with the big boys on the Big Ten trail evidenced by close losses t #1 ranked Ohio State 69 to 66 and at Purdue 63 to 62 in mid January. Illinois has dropped four of its last five games against the spread. Penn State is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings in Champaign and 12-3-2 ATS their last seventeen meetings overall. Penn State is 6-0 ATS their last six Big 10 contests. Penn State is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Illinois has struggled holding leads and tonight’s game should be another one that goes right down to the wire. Take the points with the Nittany Lions on Tuesday night.