Rob Vinciletti
Creighton vs. Bradley
Play: Creighton -3.5
Creighton is has won all 10 games when favored this season and has won 21 of the last 24 vs losing teams, including all 5 games this year. When they allowed less than 40% from the field in their last game they have won 6 of 7 this season and have been solid when playing teams that score less than 65 points per game winning 14 of 18 times vs these teams. Tonight they take on a Bradley team that has lost 12 of 13 as a dog this year and are 0-3 with home with revenge. Even worse for Bradley is their 2-8 spread mark off 3 or more losses and 3-9 ats log vs winning teams. Look for Creighton to cover the small number here tonight.
LT Profits
New Mexico / Air Force Under 130
The Air Force Falcons usually do an excellent job of playing at their methodical pace at home, as the ‘under’ is 18-7-1 against the NCAA Basketball odds in their last 26 games at Colorado Springs, and we are looking for more of the same tonight as they host the New Mexico Lobos.
Few teams are as deliberate as the Falcons are on offense, as they rank 336th out of 345 Division I teams in tempo with 61.3 possessions per game. As a frame of reference, the national average is 67.3 possessions. After going ‘over’ in their Mountain West Conference opener vs. the Utah Utes, the last two Air Force home conference games have gone easily ‘under’, with those game producing just 116 points vs. the UNLV Rebels and 123 points vs. the Wyoming Cowboys.
As for the Lobos, while the ‘over’ is 11-8 in all their games in NCAA Basketball betting this season, they are also slightly below the national average at 67.0 possessions per game, so we can easily see New Mexico getting drawn into Air Force’s pace with this game in Colorado.
That is precisely what happened in both regular season meetings between these clubs last season, both of which went ‘under’ the NCAA Basketball betting odds. The meeting at New Mexico saw 115 points scored and the meetings here at Air Force produced 123 points, both figures safely below this posted total.
Look for yet another ‘under’ in this series in this NCAA Basketball matchup.
Sean Murphy
Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning
PICK: Philadelphia Flyers
I'm certainly not in the minority, but I like the way this spot sets up for the Flyers.
Tampa Bay has taken both meetings in this series this season, with both victories coming by a single goal, both in Philadelphia. That's quite an accomplishment when you consider the Flyers have only lost nine times in 25 home games this season.
Philadelphia has actually been even better on the road this season, going 17-8, including 6-1 over its last seven away from home.
The Lightning come out of the All-Star break riding a five-game winning streak, but keep in mind, three of those wins came by way of shootout, and they didn't exactly face the league's elite - beating the Blue Jackets, Thrashers (twice), Panthers, and Leafs.
Tampa Bay has given up just six goals during its current streak, but some regression should be in order. Note that in its two games previous, it had allowed 11 goals. On the season, the Lightning are giving up right around three goals per contest.
The Flyers have had plenty of success here in Tampa, winning each of their last three trips. We'll take advantage of the line value being offered, and back them as a slight underdog. Take Philadelphia.
Larry Ness
Baylor @ Oklahoma
PICK: Oklahoma
The Bears downed the Sooners 74-61 on Jan 11th but will face a different (and improved) Oklahoma team tonight. Baylor (14-6) has had a lot to live up to this year after coming within a loss to Duke in the Elite 8 from reaching the Final 4. Dunn (21.1-4.5) has put off court issues behind him and has had an excellent season while PG Walton (8.8-5.2 APG) has done a solid job replacing Tweety Carter. Up front, the 6-7 Acy (13.1-7.8) and the 6-10 Anthony Jones (8.4-5.5) have gotten a HUGE boost from 6-10 freshman Perry Jones (13.9-7.0), who many believe has played himself into a No. 1 draft pick this summer. However, the Bears just seem to be missing something. Moreover, this will be just the team’s fourth true road game this season. The Sooners fell on hard times last year and while they are just 11-9 overall so far this season, the Sooners are 10-1 here in Norman (lone loss to A&M). Oklahoma comes into this game off a third straight win, an 82-76 OT win at Iowa St this past Saturday. Sophomore guard Steven Pledger (12.6) scored a career-high 38 points in the win, shooting 12-of-20 from the floor, including 7-of-13 from the three-point line. He’s joined on the perimeter by a solid group, led by Davis (13.0-5.2), Clark (9.6-4.8) and PG Blair (6.9-4.4 APG). The 6-8 Fitzgerald (13.7-5.7) finds himself somewhat overmatched inside but as I mentioned earlier, the Sooners are once again making the Lloyd Noble Center a tough place to come and win for visiting teams. Baylor has a size advantage and is an excellent defensive team but I like Oklahoma’s "turnaround” and will be taking the home dog.
Jack Jones
Sacramento Kings +6.5
I'll take the Sacramento Kings Tuesday in a very tough spot for the Boston Celtics. The Celtics are playing the final contest of a 4-game road trip. They've spent the last couple days celebrating after getting revenge on the defending champion Lakers with a 109-96 victory on Sunday. Coming off such a huge victory, it will be tough for Boston to get up to play the Kings. Sacramento comes into this game on 2 days' rest so they'll also be the fresher team tonight. The Kings have really been playing well here of late, winning 3 of their last 4 overall.
They won at Portland 96-81, at the Lakers 100-95 and at home vs. New Orleans 102-96. Those are three teams who are currently in the playoffs in the stacked Western Conference. Sacramento is playing with more confidence right now than they have all season as the pieces are finally starting to fall into place. Boston is a putrid 4-17 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Sacramento is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Bet the Kings Tuesday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Oklahoma Sooners +5
Oklahoma has shown some life with 3 straight wins, and it will be out to avenge last month's loss to Baylor. The Bears have struggled away from home, dropping 4 of their last 5, and they have especially struggled at Oklahoma, where they have lost 12 of their last 13. The Bears have lost 5 of their last 6 ATS while the Sooners have covered 4 of their last 5. Take the points with Oklahoma.
Jordan Haimowitz
Purdue vs. Wisconsin
Play: Purdue +5
Haimo's Hot Notes:
Number 10 ranked Purdue faces Number 18 Wisconsin tonight. The Boilermakers are 18-4 while Wisconsin is 15-5. Now for some of the distinct advantages Purdue has:
They average more points per game.
Shoot better from the field.
Average more rebounds per game.
Most of all, a much deeper bench.
E'twaun Moore and Jajuan Johnson lead this team. Jon Leuer of Wisconsin must play a big game tonight for them to have a shot at covering this spread. Johnson will have him under wraps though. Play Purdue and take the points.
Info Plays
3* Baylor -4.5
Reasons why Baylor will cover:
1) The Bears beat the Sooners by 13 on their home floor, and should have no trouble winning by at least five on the road. Oklahoma is just 13-29 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more since 1997.
2) Baylor is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5, and are 15-6 ATS in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
3) Oklahoma is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, and only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Islanders +161 over ATLANTA
Isn’t this the time that the Thrashers roll over every season? Atlanta has two wins over its last nine games and over its last seven games they’ve scored two goals or less six times. Those are numbers that are not conducive to laying big lumber and while the Thrashers are surely capable of winning this one, they’re too big a risk at this price. The Islanders are not a bad hockey team. They have a whole slew of very capable forwards and while they, too, are in a funk, they’re still in every game. The Islanders are playing with no pressure whatsoever while the Thrashers are playing with plenty to make the playoffs. These two have played twice this year with the Thrashers winning both, however, one went into OT and the other was decided by a goal. Both games occurred when Atlanta was going good but that’s no longer the case. Beating the same team three times in succession is a tough assignment and the tag makes it even more appealing. Play: N.Y. Islanders +171 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +118 over TORONTO
You think the Panthers aren’t going to come out with a bit of a chip on their shoulders after being snubbed for the all-star game? Not a single rep from Florida was included and that can’t be sitting too well with them. You all might also remember the last time the Panthers were here when a horrible non-call by the ref occurred when Colton Orr wiped out the goaltender in a 1-1 game late in the third that resulted in a goal and a Leafs win. Florida now has at least two reasons to come up extremely jacked up and they likely will. The Leafs have just five wins in their last 22 games vs the Southeast and that’s where the Panthers reside. They also have just one win in their last seven games and two wins in their last eight home games. J.S. Giguere is not consistent enough to trust and neither are the Maple Leafs as the chalk. Plenty of pressure on the Leafs and they have not responded to it all season long. Play: Florida +118 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles –102 over MINNESOTA
The cream almost always begins to rise after the break, as teams are fully aware of the push they need to make to qualify for the playoffs and what a disaster for the Kings should they fail to do so. Incredibly enough this extremely talented intruder is sitting last in the Pacific and 11th in the conference. The good news is that they’re just a single point behind three teams and just five points out of fourth overall in the conference. Now is the time for the Kings to step it up. They’re just so much more talented than the Wild and losing to inferior teams is not an option anymore. We’re really going to see what the Kings are made of and it has to start here. Play: Los Angeles –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
TAMPA BAY +104 over Philadelphia
The Lightning’s OT record over the years has been a horrible one and therefore we’ll play this in regulation only. Simply put, the Flyers should not be favored in Tampa Bay. Sure the Flyers are a great team and can beat anyone on any given night. However, the Bolts, too, are great team and you can double that in their own barn, where they’ve lost just four times in regulation all season long. Incidentally, these two have played twice this season, both in Philadelphia, and the Lightning are 2-0. It also doesn’t hurt to know that Tampa Bay is hot with five straight wins and they have not allowed more than two goals against in any of those contests. So, this is all about going with the best of it. That being, taking back a tag with the best home team in the NHL. Wrong side favored. Play: Tampa Bay +104 (Risking 2 units).
Tony George
Wichita State -3.5
Short line for a better team here...pending with this blizzard in the midwest they even got there!! The Shockers have won their last 3 road games by 10,14 and 14. I like them here after beating ISU by 10 at home in OT alittle over a week agao. Road wins are tough to come by in conference action and the Shockers KNOW this is a beatable team on the road if they play well. ISU is a solid team at home, no doubt covering 12 out of their last 15t, but in my mind that means odds are they are due for an ATS loss too. the Shockers defense is playing well against a team who has just managed 39% from the floor in their last 5 games, and Wichita has managed 48% from the floor in the same timeframe.
The Shockers 1 game up on Mizzou State and 2 up on Northern Iowa....ISU a distance 4th in conferrence standings.... winning road games against weak sisters is a MUST in Mo Valley action to stay at the top, and WSU knows it. A close one by the Shockers by 6 to 8 point here. It will not be easy, they pull away late.
JR O'Donnell
Wisconsin / 513 Purdue Over 122.5
Jr O is firing away & moving all in tonight on the "OVER 122.5" as the #19 15-5 Wisky Badgers host the Jekyl & Hyde #11 18-4 Purdue Boilermakers @ the Kohl Center. The Kohl center is a terrible place to play for a visitor and they "The Badgers" are a sizzling 12-1 overall & 8-0 ats as a home favorite. We feel that just like last night's scenario Grizzlies/Magic NBA W, the public will look to play the Under as these Wisky Badgers love to clamp the D to opponents. Not So Fast!! The Boilermakers can & will score.... We have these High Flying Boilermakers banging up atleast 63 to 65 points. This kid "Badger Guard" Josh Gassner can really play, a complete scoring package as a true freshman. On the flip side. These 2 Purdue studs... J Johnson & E'Twaun Moore can hoop boys!! They got pasted by the Buckeyes on the road & they will be ready to erase that 87-64 loss. The O'ster is ALL OVER THE OVER 122.5 TONIGHT.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Wisconsin Badgers -5
Wisconsin owns one of the best home court advantages in the country. It is 11-0 this season at home, where it is winning by an average of 21.1 points. Even elite competition has struggled inside the Kohl Center. In fact, Wiscy is 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 2 seasons, defeating these foes by an average score of 72.2 to 55.8. Lay the points.
Red Dog Sports
Purdue vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -5
The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and Wisconsin has been tough at home. They have won home games in the Big Ten by 8, 16, 10 and 9 points. Look for Wisconsin to win 72-62 and cover the number.
Wunderdog Sports
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Play: Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs closed the first half of the season on a sour note, dropping their last three games. The Florida Panthers didn't find themselves closing out the first half any better as they dropped five of their last six, despite the fact that three of those were on home ice. So each of these squads open the second half struggling and desperate for a win. The Panthers are not exactly coming off elongated rest thriving, as they are 8-22 in their last 30 after three days off or more. They have also not done well as a dog of +110 to +150 where they are just 16-39 in their last 55. The home team here has taken the edge in this series at 4-1 in the last five, so I’m backing Toronto to get it done tonight.
Teddy Covers
Houston @ L.A. Lakers
PICK: Houston
Yes, the Lakers have lost two in a row at home, a rarity in the Phil Jackson/Kobe Bryant era. But this quote from Phil Jackson tells us very clearly that LA is far more concerned with getting healthy and ready for the playoffs than with beating teams like Houston by margin here in February.
“It’s probably more of a disappointment to me that we haven’t taken care of the teams that we should take care of. The inconsistency is what bothers me the most. … (But) we have two years of pretty good records in the playoffs, don’t we? That’s what makes me optimistic.” There’s no panic in LA right now, and no extra intensity for the Lakers following a pair of defeats. In fact, LA has a losing ATS mark off a loss this year, the only ‘elite’ level team that has been a money loser in that role.
Even before these two home losses, the Lakers weren’t playing the type of defense that allows them to cover near double digit pointspreads like this one. LA has allowed their opponents to shoot better than 50 percent from the floor in their last five games. They’ve lost four of seven in SU fashion, 3-6 ATS in their last nine. They’ve got another marquee TV matchup with San Antonio coming up on Thursday, coming off a marquee TV matchup with Boston on Sunday, leaving this game as a potential flat spot for a team that has played a lot of ‘flat’ basketball in recent weeks.
Houston has hung tough with the Lakers in both previous meetings this year. The Rockets beat the Lakers by ten when they met in December, and it took a Steve Blake three pointer in the final seconds for LA to escape with a two point win against the Rockets in their lone previous meeting at the Staples Center this year. Expect another competitive contest tonight. 2* Take Houston.