Black Widow
1* on New Orleans Hornets -9
We'll lay the points with the New Orleans Hornets tonight as they return home following a pair of heartbreaking road losses. The Hornets had won 10 straight before a 96-102 loss at Sacramento and a 102-104 loss at Phoenix. With the Washington Wizards coming to town, we like their chances of bouncing back in blowout fashion. Washington is 0-24 SU & 6-18 ATS on the road this season getting outscored by 13.6 points/game, and the Wizards will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Washington is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. The Hornets are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season. The Hornets are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points this season. New Orleans is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference. Take the Hornets and lay the points.
Ray Monohan
Kansas vs. Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech +13½
Tonight at 9pm in the United Spirit Arena in Lubbock Texas we get a nice Big 12 matchup between the KU Jayhawks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders. I'm on the home team tonight. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Texas Tech is hot, having beaten Nebraska, Iowa State and Oklahoma State in succession after looking like a candidate to go 0-16 in the Big 12 when conference play started. Now I'm by no means saying TT will win this one straight up, even though Bill Self is 0-3 in Lubbock, but I do expect them to keep this one close and will grab the generous amount of points here. Texas Tech has four consecutive games against Top 25 teams--No. 2 Kansas, No. 3 Texas, Texas A&M and Missouri--coming up. They will not be looking past KU. The Red Raiders want nothing more than to spoil the Jayhawks post-season and big 12 party plans, and could do so by registering their fourth home win over KU dating back to March 3, 2003.
Bobby Maxwell
Washington at NEW ORLEANS (-10)
For my comp selection, the Wizards haven’t won a road game all season, losers of 24 straight away from home. They fell on Monday night in Dallas, 102-92, and they’ll get pounded again tonight in New Orleans. This is one you lay the big points and don’t worry a bit as the Hornets will win this one by 16.
The Hornets are 19-5 at home this season and last time they were home they swept two games from the Spurs and Thunder.
In the only matchup between these two teams this season, New Orleans went to Washington and scored a 92-81 win on January 1, cashing as a one-point favorite. The Hornets have won four of the last five matchups and cashed in three of the last four.
Washington is on ATS slides of 7-20 on the road, 4-13 overall, 3-10 against the Western Conference and 18-37 when playing the second night of a back-to-back.
New Orleans is riding ATS streaks of 9-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-2 on Tuesdays and 37-16-2 against Southeast Division squads.
Washington has dropped seven of its last eight overall and five straight. New Orleans has dropped two straight, but both were on the road, including Sunday’s 104-102 loss at Phoenix. I’ll go ahead and lay the big points with the Hornets in this one. Play New Orleans.
2♦ NEW ORLEANS
Derek Mancini
Boston at SACRAMENTO (+6')
This is a tough spot for Boston, who's coming off a big win at the Lakers and faces the Mavericks Friday. Conveniently sitting in between those two marquee match ups is tonight's game with lowly Sacramento. This is a classic definition of a sandwich game, and one I expect the Celtics will have difficulty covering.
I'm not going to sit here and tell you the Kings can hang with the Celtics. But what I will say is they can keep this game relatively competitive given Boston takes the night off, which is precisely what I expect will happen. Need proof? What happened in between Portland and the Lakers? They faced a sub .500 Suns team this past Friday and laid an egg, that's what! Of course, it was with no rest (a factor with Boston), however I still believe the Celtics are just as capable of looking ahead to Dallas, as they did against the Suns with the Lakers on deck.
Finally, let's not overlook what the Kings have done in 3 of their L4 games, with wins at Portland, at the Lakers and vs. New Orleans - three very good teams. Again, I'm not saying anything about the Kings winning outright here, but they have been playing rock-solid basketball of late. Most importantly, they've been getting it done on the defensive end, where they've limited their L4 opponents to 96 points or fewer. Also, love the recent play of Cousins, who was fantastic against the Lakers and Hornets. Long story short, look for the Kings to take advantage of a disinterested Celtics team in this one. Sacramento plus the points over Boston Tuesday.
2♦ SACRAMENTO
Stephen Nover
San Antonio (-5') at PORTLAND
I am 6-1 on my last seven NBA free selections. Tonight's free selection I'm going with road chalk - San Antonio to cover against Portland.
San Antonio is just the eighth team in NBA history to reach 40 or more victories in 47 games.
The Spurs clearly are the best team in the league. Portland, by comparison, is struggling to hold on to the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
The Trail Blazers are racked with key injuries. Out is Brandon Roy and Marcus Camby. Nicolas Batum is questionable with a sore hip and Joel Pryzbilla is essentially playing on one leg. Don't forget, too, Greg Oden is out for the season.
Portland traditionally is tough at home. However, the Trail Blazers have dropped their last two at Rose Garden falling to Sacramento and Boston.
The key to stopping the Trail Blazers is bottling up LaMarcus Aldridge, who is the team's only consistent scoring threat with Roy out. Neither Wesley Matthews nor Andre Miller are imposing offensive threats.
Both the Kings and Celtics got Aldridge out of his comfort zone. The result was Aldridge missing 22 of 34 shots from the floor in those two losses with Portland scoring only 78 and 81 points.
The Spurs have won four championships in the Gregg Popovich era. This is the fastest they have reached 40 victories. It's also the best offensive team Popovich has had. Manu Ginobili has been hot and Tony Parker has hit 50 percent of his shots from the floor during the last eight games.
The Spurs rank fifth in scoring at 104.4 points a game. They've clamped down defensively, too, holding their past 12 foes to 94 points per game, which would rank sixth if pro-rated during the entire season.
Portland doesn't have the firepower to match San Antonio, nor the interior defense with Camby out. Portland hasn't broken the 100-point barrier in 12 of its last 17 games.
The Trail Blazers haven't played since last Thursday. San Antonio, though, last was in action on Saturday. No coach is more dangerous than Popovich with extra time to prepare.
This is the first of nine consecutive road games for the Spurs as they begin their annual rodeo road trip. They'll be motivated to start the three-week journey right. Talent-wise, the Spurs should have no trouble covering this spread.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO
Chris Jordan
Houston (+8') at L.A. LAKERS
I've been a big defender of the Lakers this season, through all of their rough patches and seemingly low points of the campaign.
But something tells me it's time to take the safety of the panic button.
The two-time defending NBA champs lost four the fourth time in seven games on Sunday, losing to the Celtics in the teams' first meeting since last June in the Finals.
And while the Lakers dropped to 1-5 against the league's top contenders - Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Miami and San Antonio - there should be more concern with how they've played against some of the NBA's poorer teams, such as Sacramento last Friday, and Indiana, Memphis and Milwaukee earlier in the season.
Tonight there won't be much rerieve, either, as the Rockets have already beaten L.A. this season, and gave them fits in the first meeting.
I also don't know how much of the Lakers' focus will be on this game, and how much of it will be on the Spurs, who come to Staples Center on Thursday.
I can't trust the Lakers laying more than a few, whether it's home or away, and let alone trust them to win a game against a respectable team.
Take the underdog here, as the Lakers continue to show their age and struggle with Houston for the third time this season.
2♦ HOUSTON
Craig Davis
Houston (+8') at LA LAKERS
Tonight's free play is on the Houston Rockets over the Los Angeles Lakers. No, I'm not saying the Rockets will get the win SU, but I am saying I believe they will stay within the nine points. Why? Because the Lakers aren't dominating teams like they did last year and the Rockets have been giving the Lakers fits in recent history.
So far this year the Rockets have beaten the Lakers SU by 10 and dropped an early-season heartbreaker by two in Los Angeles. In fact, the last time the Rockets were slugged in the gut by the Lakers was during the 2009 playoffs. A lot has changed since then, and even without Yao Ming in the lineup, Houston has found out how to be competitive in these games and I expect the same tonight.
The great thing about backing the Rockets is that they shoot the long ball so well (38%) and they really do a solid job at the free throw line (over 80% on the road).
Kobe Bryant will get his. Pau Gasol will get his. But since the Lakers aren't playing much defense these days, I don't see any reason why the Rockets can't stay within nine points. Take Houston as your free play of the day.
3♦ HOUSTON
Karl Garrett
Purdue (+4) at WISCONSIN
Free play winner on Purdue plus the points to cover once again at Wisconsin.
The Badgers have yet to lose at home at 11-0, but that streak could be in jeopardy tonight against a Purdue team that has won 5 of the last 6 series meetings.
It is a Boilermaker team that has also covered in 7 of the last 9 series meetings!
The last time the Boilers were on the conference road, they got smashed by Ohio State, so you can assume Purdue will want to make a strong showing in this conference road game.
The underdog in the series has been the play in 8 of the last 9 series meetings, and with Bo Ryan's team fresh off blowing Saturday's game at Penn State, I will look for the Badgers to struggle once again tonight against an opponent that has had their number.
Take Purdue plus the points.
2♦ PURDUE
Scott Delaney
Wichita State (-4) at INDIANA STATE
Indiana State is a scrappy team, I'll give it that much.
But tonight, you'll see why the Sycamores are 12-10 on the season, as the Shockers will make a statement with a dominating win.
These two just met 10 days ago, and they battled to triple overtime, where the Shockers prevailed, 93-83.
But make note that Wichita State was in off back-to-back home losses, and was reeling a bit. That win, however, helped the Shockers right their ship, while the loss sent ISU spiraling.
The Sycamores have lost three in a row now, and though this one is at home, they're going to have their handsfull against the 18-4 Shockers, who are tied for first place in the Missouri Valley Conference, at 9-2, with Missouri State.
If Mizzou St and Wichita were to close out the rest of their seasons undefeateed, the two would play for the regular-season conference title, and No. 1 seed in the post-season tournament, in their season finale.
Wichita State will be treating this as a must win, as it cannot afford any more conference losses. Lay the chalk.
3♦ WICHITA STATE
Chuck O'Brien
Kansas at TEXAS TECH (+13')
On Monday I gave you a free winner on Texas and Texas A&M staying Under the total. I'll stay in the Big 12 for tonight's comp play on Texas Tech as a big home underdog against Kansas.
It took about two months, but the Red Raiders have apparently found their groove, winning and cashing in three straight games after starting the Big 12 season with four consecutive double-digit losses (and non-covers). The key to Texas Tech’s resurgence has been its offense, which has produced 74, 72, 92 and 74 points in the last four games (after scoring 59, 52 and 60 in their first three conference contests).
That offense better show up tonight, because Texas Tech’s defense has been nonexistent in league play (79.9 ppg allowed) and Kansas has topped 80 points in four of its six Big 12 games. The good news for the Red Raiders is they can lean on history, as they’ve upset the Jayhawks each of the last three years in Lubbock, allowing just 65 and 64 points in the last two. That includes last year’s 84-65 rout as a 10-point home underdog, which is part of the home team’s eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) in this rivalry.
Kansas is coming off Saturday’s dominating 90-66 home win over Kansas State as a 10-point chalk, but that just means the Jayhawks are in a prime letdown spot here. Besides, prior to that, they had failed to cover in five of six games, including two tight road wins at Iowa State (84-79 as a 9½-point favorite) and at Colorado (82-78 as a 7½-point favorite).
Kansas has failed to cover in 13 of its last 18 games when favored by 13 points or more, including four straight as a road chalk of 13 or more. The Jayhawks are way too talented not to find a way to win in Lubbock for the first time since 2003, but it’s not going to be easy.
2♦ TEXAS TECH
Michael Cannon
North Carolina at BOSTON COLLEGE (+2')
Take Boston College as the small home dog over North Carolina for your free Tuesday winner.
The Tarheels have had a tough time in Chestnut Hill. They haven’t beat the Eagles there since March, 2008.
Boston College is a perfect 3-0 at home in conference play and I expect that momentum to continue tonight. Especially considering the Eagles are the listed underdogs.
Although the Tarheels have shown improvement over the last few weeks, I still don’t trust them on the road. Especially as a chalk.
Take the points with Boston College.
3♦ BOSTON COLLEGE
Joel Tyson
North Carolina (-2) at BOSTON COLLEGE
Free selection winner for Tuesday night is to go with North Carolina minus a few points at Boston College.
This is a double-revenge spot for Roy Williams' Tar Heels, as BC has won outright the last 2 times these conference rivals have met.
Boston College comes into this home game skidding a little, losing their last pair of games, and 3 of their last 4 overall.
North Carolina has been gaining momentum of late, recording 3 straight conference wins and covers, and the Tar Heels are on an overall 8-1 straight up roll their last 9 games.
With this game priced down near a pick, I say back North Carolina to stop the series losing streak at 2 games as the Tar Heels come up with their 4th straight win and cover in this conference clash.
5♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Jeff Benton
Now on to Tuesday’s college basketball freebie – which follows Monday’s free-play NBA winner on the Grizzlies – as we’ll grab the points with Vanderbilt at Florida.
How can I back a team that is 0-6-1 ATS since the SEC season started and is coming off an 11-point loss as a 13-point underdog? To an opponent that Florida destroyed at home 75-43 as a nine-point favorite? Easy answer: Because Vanderbilt is catching points tonight. Why does that matter? Because the Commodores stink as a favorite (2-6 ATS in their last eight when laying points). But as an underdog, Vandy has been money.
The Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a pup, and the only blemish was a 67-64 loss at Tennessee as a 1½-point underdog. Going back to last year, Vandy has cashed in eight of its last 10 as an underdog of 6½ points or less.
Florida’s pointspread trends mirror those of Vanderbilt. The Gators are 2-10 ATS as a favorite this season, but they’re 4-for-4 as an underdog (all outright upsets). In fact, take out one pick-em game (vs. Kansas State) and the underdog is 14-2 ATS in Florida’s 16 lined games this season!
Vanderbilt beat the Gators twice last season (95-87 at home; 64-60 on the road), and even though the Commodores give up more points per game than Florida (67.3 vs. 61.7), they’re actually the superior defensive squad when looking at shooting percentages (Vandy allows 39.6 percent shooting, including 29 percent from beyond the arc, while the Gators allow 41.3 percent shooting, including 32 percent from three-point range). And if this one comes down to free-throw shooting, forget about it – Vandy (74.7 percent) has the huge edge (65.2 percent).
5♦ VANDERBILT