Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday February, 14

NCAAB

UNLV at TCU
The Horned Frogs look to take advantage of a UNLV team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games as a road favorite. TCU is the pick (+8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Runnin' Rebels favored by only 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: TCU (+8 1/2)

Game 719-720: Virginia at Clemson (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 65.950; Clemson 65.122
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 1; 117
Vegas Line: Clemson by 1 1/2; 113 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+1 1/2); Over

Game 721-722: St. John's at Seton Hall (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 55.971; Seton Hall 66.960
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 11; 131
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 9; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick Seton Hall (-9); Under

Game 723-724: Texas A&M at Texas Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 60.982; Texas Tech 58.424
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 2 1/2; 120
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 4; 117
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+4); Over

Game 725-726: Georgia State at James Madison (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 57.917; James Madison 53.102
Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 5; 125
Vegas Line: Georgia State by 3; 128
Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (-3); Under

Game 727-728: Buffalo at Kent State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 59.109; Kent State 61.336
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 2; 133
Vegas Line: Kent State by 4 1/2; 140
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4 1/2); Under

Game 729-730: Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 49.062; Central Michigan 54.359
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 5 1/2; 116
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 3 1/2; 112
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-3 1/2); Over

Game 731-732: Loyola-Chicago at Butler (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 46.088; Butler 57.603
Dunkel Line: Butler by 11 1/2; 107
Vegas Line: Butler by 14 1/2; 112 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+14 1/2); Under

Game 733-734: William & Mary at Drexel (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 47.969; Drexel 66.623
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 18 1/2; 124
Vegas Line: Drexel by 16; 121
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-16); Over

Game 735-736: Delaware at Hofstra (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 53.804; Hofstra 58.551
Dunkel Line: Hofstra by 4 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Hofstra by 3; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hofstra (-3); Over

Game 737-738: NC-Wilmington at Old Dominion (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 47.798; Old Dominion 58.770
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 11; 123
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 13; 128
Dunkel Pick: NC-Wilmington (+13); Under

Game 739-740: Towson at Northeastern (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 40.843; Northeastern 52.758
Dunkel Line: Northeastern by 12; 108
Vegas Line: Northeastern by 14 1/2; 113 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Towson (+14 1/2); Under

Game 741-742: Illinois State at Indiana State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 56.252; Indiana State 62.837
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 6 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 3 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (-3 1/2); Over

Game 743-744: Florida at Alabama (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 71.049; Alabama 65.657
Dunkel Line: Florida by 5 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Florida by 3; 133
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-3); Under

Game 745-746: UNLV at TCU (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 67.050; TCU 60.488
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 6 1/2; 155
Vegas Line: UNLV by 8 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+8 1/2); Over

Game 747-748: Creighton at Southern Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 61.891; Southern Illinois 56.164
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 5 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Creighton by 7 1/2; 140
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (+7 1/2); Over

Game 749-750: Cleveland State at WI-Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 57.508; WI-Milwaukee 61.088
Dunkel Line: WI-Milwaukee by 3 1/2; 115
Vegas Line: WI-Milwaukee by 1; 119 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (-1); Under

Game 751-752: Illinois-Chicago at Valparaiso (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 47.439; Valparaiso 58.005
Dunkel Line: Valparaiso by 10 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Valparaiso by 13; 132
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (+13); Under

Game 753-754: Youngstown State at WI-Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 52.274; WI-Green Bay 58.461
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 6; 144
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 4 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-4 1/2); Over

Game 755-756: Texas at Oklahoma (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 69.383; Oklahoma 62.572
Dunkel Line: Texas by 7; 141
Vegas Line: Texas by 2 1/2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-2 1/2); Over

Game 757-758: VCU at George Mason (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 61.561; George Mason 62.259
Dunkel Line: George Mason by 1; 128
Vegas Line: VCU by 1; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (+1); Under

Game 759-760: Ohio State at Minnesota (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 75.387; Minnesota 66.107
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 9 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 7 1/2; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-7 1/2); Over

Game 761-762: Mississippi State at LSU (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 63.511; LSU 62.773
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 1; 133
Vegas Line: LSU by 1 1/2; 136
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+1 1/2); Under

Game 763-764: Manhattan at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 56.875; Siena 52.071
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 5; 135
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 3 1/2; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-3 1/2); Over

Game 765-766: Jacksonville State at Tennessee State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 50.272; Tennessee State 55.234
Dunkel Line: Tennessee State by 5; 122
Vegas Line: Tennessee State by 8 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville State (+8 1/2); Under

Game 767-768: Pacific at UC-Davis (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 52.457; UC-Davis 45.067
Dunkel Line: Pacific by 7 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: Pacific by 5 1/2; 130
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (-5 1/2); Under

Marc Lawrence

Youngstown State at Wis-Green Bay
Prediction: Wis-Green Bay

The Phoenix were handed their worst loss ever in conference history earlier this year at Youngstown, a 77-47 beating at the hands of the Penguins. The history between the Phoenix and Penguins (17-6 SU and 16-7 ATS, including 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS at home and 3-0 ATS with revenge) is clearly in the Cheeseheads favor. Toss in the fact that Green Bay is 5-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home off a previous home loss under second-year HC Brian Wardle ? and that Youngstown is entering off back-to-back same-season revengers with Butler and Valpo (0-7 SU after Crusaders) - and we have the makings of a cheeseburger in paradise in Green Bay tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Wisconsin Green Bay.

Scott Spreitzer

Creighton at Southern Illinois
Prediction: Creighton

Enough is enough, already. The Blue Jays, who just a couple of weeks ago were inching their way towards the top-10, now find themselves ranked 28th in the AP after losing 3 straight games. Creighton has simply gone cold, making just 68 of 166, 40.9% of their FGA, including a frigid 14 of 61, 22.9% from behind the arc. To show how well they were performing, the Jays are still #1 in CBB, making 50.4% of their shots on the season, including 42.6% (3rd) from area code 3. The Jays rocked the Salukis, 90-71 in Omaha in January. SIU doesn't shoot well and they don't defend well. SIU attempted to double Doug McDermott and deny him the basketball. That resulted in "holding" the Jays' star to 25 points with the team "canning" 55% of their shots. SIU should be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Jays to get back on track. They're 4-0 ATS off a rare double-digit home loss, and they're on a 6-0 ATS run in Carbondale. More of the same here. I'm laying the points with Creighton on Tuesday.

Vegas Experts

Cleveland State at WI-Milwaukee
Play: Cleveland State

After suffering back to back disappointing losses at home (as favorites), Cleveland State needs this one badly. They'll be taking on a Wisconsin Milwaukee team that just lost outright 70-46 to Wright State on Sunday. The Vikings remain just one-half game behind Horizon League leader Valparaiso, who plays 7-17 IL-Chicago tonight. When these teams met last month, it was all Cleveland State in an 83-57 win.

Rob Vinciletti

Cleveland State vs. Wisc Milwaukee
Play: Cleveland State +1

Cleveland St has won 17 of 19 vs teams who average 63 points per game or less and are 7-3 vs teams over .500 this season. After allowing 60 or less in their last game they are a solid 29-05 and have won all times as a dog this season. In games when the total is 199 or less they have won 9 of the last and take on a Wisconsin Milwaukee team that was blown out on the road on Sunday vs lowly Wright St. WMU has lost 8 of 11 vs winning teams this season and 6 of 8 vs teams ranked 50 to 150 in the rpi rankings. When the total is 119 or less they have dropped 3 of 4 and 16 of 23 vs teams who allow 64 points per game or less. Finally they have failed miserable for whatever reason in Tuesday night games going 1-8 to the spread. Look for Cleveland St emerge with a win and cover.

Matt Fargo

Cleveland State @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee
PICK: Wisconsin-Milwaukee -1

We would have liked to have seen Cleveland St. win on Saturday against Butler but this was going to be a play against either way. The Vikings have dropped two straight games, both of those coming at home, to fall to 10-4 in the conference. They are a half-game behind Valparaiso so this is certainly a must win game with only three games left in the Horizon after this but a must win game does not always mean a sure win. The Vikings are a solid 11-2 on the road but this is a tough road spot.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee is also riding a two-game losing streak but those two losses came on the road and now the Panthers are back home for what is their final conference home game of the season. While they are 8-7 in the conference and sitting in sixth place, they are just one game out of third place so these remaining games mean something for them as well. The Panthers are 10-3 at home this season including a 6-2 conference record and this marks their first home game is February.

Ben Burns

San Antonio @ Detroit
PICK: Detroit +8

I believe the home underdog is offering us fairly solid value here. Yes, the Spurs have really been rolling. They're laying a big number here though and they're facing a Detroit team which has quietly won four of its last five games and which is 5-1 ATS its last six.

Even with their recent hot streak and Saturday's blowout of New Jersey , the Spurs are still only 5-8 ATS against teams with a losing record.

It should also be noted that the Spurs, who play at Toronto tomorrow, haven't typically blown teams out this season, when playing the front end of back to back games.

Too often, bettors focus on how teams fare in the back end of back-to-back games and fail to pay attention to how they perform in the front end. Its important to know how teams tend to do in both situations though, this year arguably more than ever.

Check this out. This will be the eighth time in 2012 that the Spurs will be playing the front end of back-to-back games. They didn't win any of the previous seven of those games by more than eight points. In fact, they lost four of those seven outright. Two victories came by three and four points, neither of those resulted in a cover. The lone "big" win came by only eight points - and it was at home.

The Pistons beat Portland here and they lost by only three vs. the Heat here. Don't be surprised if they give their streaking guests all they can handle.

Stephen Nover

Washington @ Portland
PICK: Portland -15

There's only one way to go with Portland hosting Washington. And it's not backing the Wizards on the road.

The Wizards are 2-10 on the road with their two victories coming against Charlotte, the worst team in the league, and an upset of Detroit this past Sunday. Washington is 4-8 ATS in its away matchups.

This isn't surprising since the Wizards have been one of the worst road teams for the past couple of years failing to cover in 35 of their past 51 trips. They also have been a money-burner as a big 'dog, too, going 1-8 ATS the last nine times when taking 11 or more points.

Can the young, immature and disfunctional Wizards actually, though, put together two solid road efforts? The evidence doesn't point to this occurring, especially at this road venue.

In their last seven road losses, the Wizards were beaten by 17 points at Toronto, by six at Orlando, by 27 at Houston, by a combined 51 points in two losses to the 76ers, by 14 at Chicago and by 18 again at Orlando. That's an average road loss of 19 points.

Washington is 14-41 ATS following a victory. Only once all season have the Wizards even covered in back-to-back games.

The Wizards have struggled, like many teams, at Rose Garden. They last won in Portland in 2005. During their past four visits to Rose Garden, the Wizards have been outscored by 17.5 points per game averaging less than 80 points during this time frame.

Portland is physical, well-coached, rebounds well and has a top 10 defense and knocks down its free throws. The Wizards are completely outgunned in the front line trying to contain LaMarcus Aldridge and Gerald Wallace.

The Trail Blazers are rested and motivated. They were off to their best home start in 13 years with an 11-1 mark before suffering losses in their past two home contests - in overtime to Oklahoma City and to Houston. Prior to those games, Portland had won its last five home games by an average of 25.4 points.

This is a kill spot for Portland, which last played on Saturday. Look for the Trail Blazers to do the job in convincing fashion.

Jim Feist

Mississippi St vs LSU
Pick: LSU

An SEC rivalry battle between a pair of teams with winning overall records. Mississippi State is shooting for 20 wins, but the Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record and on a 1-4 ATS overall run. LSU has won 2 of 3 games including a big win over Alabama the last game, 67-58. The Tigers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings so grab the fired up home court in this one. Play LSU!

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Toronto Raptors +5½

The Knicks have won 5 in a row largely due to the solid play of overnight star Jeremy Lin, and they are being overvalued by odds makers as a result.

The chemistry achieved in the absence of Amar'e Stoudemire could be thrown off with the big fella returning to action tonight. Plus, the Knicks haven't exactly been a strong investment in the road chalk role. The Knicks are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games as a road favorite.

The Raptors have won just 2 of their last 6 games but are 5-1 ATS during this stretch. During this span, they have played Miami to a 6-point game on the road, beat Boston at home and played the Lakers to a 2-point game at home. Toronto also posted a 5-point win over the Knicks at Madison Square Garden when these teams met early last month.

The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and I expect this trend to continue with this line being inflated by Lin-sanity. Take the points.

Steve Janus

New York Knicks -5

Something special is going on in New York. Under the sensational play of Jeremy Lin the Knicks have went from a team that was flirting with not making the playoffs, to a serious contender in the Eastern Conference. While I think the public has jumped on the Lin bandwagon, I still think there is a lot of value with New York.

The Knicks get Amare Stoudemire back tonight and I think he is going to fit in extremely well with the new look Knicks. The only thing that scares me is when Carmelo Anthony returns to the lineup. At that point I would take caution until we get a good idea of how Melo is going to accept not being the star.

Sure 5-points is a lot for the Knicks to be laying at Toronto, but if New York plays like they have been this game won't even be close! I think this is one of those times when you ride out a teams hot streak. New York has won five straight and are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games. I think this line is inflated if you are talking about the Knicks team from a month ago, but not the one that will be taking the floor tonight!

Rocketman

Illinois Chicago @ Valparaiso
Play: Illinois Chicago +13

Kevin Van Wijk is the 2nd leading scorer for Valparaiso averaging 14.5 points per ame and is listed as doubtful tonight. Illinois Chicago is 6-1 ATS last 3 years as a road underdog of 12 1/2 to 15 points. Illinois Chicago is 7-2 ATS overall vs Valparaiso since 1997. Flames are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. Flames are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5. Flames are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Tuesday games. Flames are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Crusaders are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Crusaders are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5. Crusaders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Crusaders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Crusaders are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Flames are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Illinois Chicago tonight!

Nelly

Indiana + over Miami

Playing Milwaukee generally won’t drive a team like the Heat to deliver a great performance but Miami had already lost twice to the Bucks, making last night's game an important one. Miami pulled away in the second half for a solid win, aided by a great shooting night, collectively hitting nearly 52 percent from the field and 50 percent from 3-point range. Miami has topped 100 points in three straight games but this will be a big test against a very good Pacers team while having to play a third game in as many days in three different cities. Miami won last night but is just 3-6 ATS playing on back-to-back nights this year. Miami is just 3-3 S/U on the road against winning teams including going 1-3 against teams not named Atlanta. The Heat is a losing ATS team on the road overall this season and Indiana is well rested for a critical game, needing to break a 3-game skid. The Pacers have lost five in a row ATS but they have played a very tough schedule, facing winning teams in eight of the last ten games to cool off a bit from a hot early season start. Miami crushed Indiana just over a month ago in Miami, winning by 35 so there will be no shortage of motivation for the Pacers. That was another hot shooting game for the Miami, hitting over 52 percent while Indiana was ice cold with a sub-35 percent shooting night and 23 turnovers. The underdog is 22-8-1 in the last 31 meetings between these teams and while Miami is a tough team to fade, this is a very tough scheduling spot and an absolutely critical game for the Pacers to prove they belong in the Eastern Conference discussion.

SPORTS WAGERS

TORONTO +5/+180 over New York

Reagrdless of the outcome here, we're going with the best of it by betting against the suddenly overhyped New York Knicks. Some have compared Jeremy Lins' arrival and subsequent heroics to that of Tim Tebow. Lin is getting the same amount of press, as the media continues to blow everything out of proportion. Had this game been played before that hype and without Carmelo Anthony and Baron Davis in the lineup, as they are here, the Raptors would've been a 5-point favorite. All the Raptors have done is beat the Celtics and come from 20 down to against the Lakers to force L.A. into a last second shot to beat them. The Raptors are continually improving. Three of their last five games have come against Miami, Boston and the Lakers. They went 1-2 against that trio but did not look out of place in any of them with biggest margin of defeat being by six points in Miami. Win or lose, we now get to take advantage of a bad line because of the inflated “Lin” factor. Play: Toronto +180 (Risking 1 unit) Play: Toronto +5 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1).

OKLAHOMA CITY -12½ over Utah

The Thunder have played the least amount of home games in the Association. They're 12-5 on the road and they're 9-1 at home. Playing their fifth game in seven nights on the road, the Thunder went into Utah on Friday and beat them by 14. The Jazz played last night in New Orleans and lost. Utah will now play its third game in three successive nights against one of the best and highest scoring teams in the league. The Jazz have just three road wins in 11 tries. They're a middle of the pack team in terms of scoring, rebounding and defense but on the road they drop off significantly. They played as good as they could against an exhausted Thunder team last Friday and were ultimately put away in the second half. Playing their third game in three nights and playing in the Thunders house against a rested Thunder squad, the Jazz have about as much chance of covering this number as “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” does of winning best picture at the Academy Awards. Play: Oklahoma City -12½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).