Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, February 15,2011

Cajun Sports

Akron Zips vs. Bowling Green Falcons
Selection: Akron Zips Pk

The Akron Zips travel to face Mid-American Conference rival Bowling Green Falcons on Tuesday night. Akron comes in having won four of their last five straight up and against the spread. They are 15-10 on the year but a mere 5-8 on the highway. That road record is of little concern here as the Zips have controlled this series for the most part of late. Akron is 7-1 ATS versus Bowling Green their last eight away and a perfect 5-0 ATS as an away favorite versus the Falcons. Bowling Green is 5-14-1 ATS after losing their last two games against the spread and now playing at home. Akron is 63-41-3 ATS installed as a conference favorite or pick. Our powerful database tells us to Play ON CBB teams after winning their last three games against the spread installed as an away favorite with a line range of pick to -2.5; these teams are 129-89-4 ATS. If they won their last two games ATS at home in this situation they are 72-47-3 ATS. We also want to Play ON CBB teams after covering their last three games against the spread and now must face a division opponent on the road, these road warriors are 41-19-2 ATS. We will back the Zips here as they get another victory over the Falcons on Tuesday night.

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia 76ers at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers

The finale of this three-game homestand finds the Grizzlies in the middle of a Denver omelet and no matter which way we flip it, it’s a recipe for disaster. Lionel Hollins’ bunch is 4-13 ATS after running with the Nuggets and just 4-8-1 ATS before having to face them. The situation gets more than a little dicey when we throw some Philly cheese into the mix. The Sixers are out to avenge a 99-94 January home loss to the Grizz and they have been nothing short of sensational when seeking same-season payback this year, posting an 11-3 ATS mark. The 76ers have also been moneymakers on the road this season, covering 17 of 27 contests. Grab the points as this one has all the ingredients of an upset special. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Jim Feist

Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers +5

Reason: Miami had an emotional game on Sunday and saw their 8-game win streak snapped at rival Boston. The Heat are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss! They run into a hot Indiana team on a 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS run, even winning as a dog the last game. The Pacers are home and rested with 2 full days off. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and the Underdog is 22-6-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings between these teams. Play the Pacers.

Brent Brooks

Bowling Green Pk

Akron's road woes vanished for one game as they handled up on the lowly Rockets of Toledo. If you ignore that game, you'll see how they've struggled on the road so far in MAC play. Bowling Green started out the season as a disaster in the non conference but is 7-4 in the MAC season and has held home court very well so far. Going with the Falcons as a 1* Freebie for Tuesday night.

Villanova -3

With the dismissals of Keon Lawrence and Jamal Jackson, the Pirates are thinner than ever in terms of depth. Theodore and Hazell are playing great but Nova has the guards to stay in front of them. Even though Corey Stokes is banged up, I like Nova to bounce back here from their loss at home to Pitt. 1* Freebie on Wildcats.

Matt Fargo

Wichita State vs. Evansville
Play: Evansville +6

Evansville was picked by most to finish last in the Missouri Valley Conference and when conference play commenced, that prediction looked legitimate. In the MVC opener, the Purple Aces were hammered at Wichita St. by 34 points and eventually started the conference with a 1-4 record. Three of those losses came on the road against three top teams while another loss came at home against Creighton, currently 8-7. Evansville has gone 7-3 since then with all three of those defeats taking place on the road. Wichita St. was pegged by most to take the regular season title in the MVC and it is on pace to do that, currently tied with Missouri St. atop the standings. For the most part the wins have been dominating while the three losses can be considered surprising since all took place at home. The Shockers are 7-0 straight up and against the number on the road in the MVC which is a major reason they are rather large favorites here and are being backed by a huge portion of the early public action. The Purple Aces are 6-1 at home in the Valley and 11-2 overall and that is the third best home record in the entire conference which says a lot about the improvement of this program after finishing just 7-9 at home a season ago and 9-21 overall. They are coming off a tough loss on Saturday at last place Bradley but that should provide a lot of motivation for tonight especially with the added incentive for revenge following that opening conference loss in Wichita. Evansville has played well against the better competition as it is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against teams with a winning record while going 4-1 ATS in its last five games as an under. Over the past fewer years, the Purple Aces have done the same as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in the second half of the season against elite opposition that is outscoring opponents by eight or more ppg. They have won seven of nine games outright this season following a cover loss, outscoring opponents by 6.2 ppg. 3* Evansville Purple Aces

Ray Monohan

Drake vs. Missouri State
Play: Missouri State -13½

Tonight we get the Missouri State Bears (20-6, 12-3 MVC)vs. Drake Bulldogs (11-15, 6-9 MVC). Like the line value we're getting tonight on Missouri State. MSU remains tied for first place in the MVC with three league games left. The Bears have won three straight, including a 68-59 win at Illinois State on Saturday night. At home the Bears are averaging 74.6 scoring, and holding teams to 60.4 points scored on defense. On the road, the Bulldogs are averaging 59.1 scoring, and holding teams to 71.0 points scored on defense. PPG, FG%, FT%, Defense, Boards, TO's, you name the state Missouri St. owns the advantage against Drake tonight. Trends I like for this one include, Home team is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Favorite is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Missouri St. Bears are 13-1 at home this season, 12-3 against conference opponents, and 8-3 against non-conference opponents.

JR O'Donnell

Evansville + 6

Evansville + 6 GRABS THE MVC dangerous dog role here as our members play..... These 14-11 over all Aces are a super sweet 11-2 at home and they match up well with the Shockers tonight. Playing against the 21-5 Wichita State crew is a tough tough go here but Jr O will fire on the Dangerous dog here!! Coach Marty Simmons the 2009 MVC coach of the year will have his players ready! The Aces are led by Ryan Colt...40% from the 3 point line and 87% from the charity stipe. They have had recent great play down low by K Harris who has pulled 157 boards and has averaged 6.5 per game. Roberts arena & the"11,600 students" is a very tough place to play for road opponents and the Aces have quietly won 5 in a row there.

They hammered a pretty tough 18-9 N Iowa crew there February 8th by 8. The #'s are sweet here for the Aces. The Purple Aces are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog & Purple Aces are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, Shockers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings @ The Roberts Arena.

EZWINNERS

Golden State Warriors -2

The Hornets are struggling and have lost five out of their last six games. Center Emeka Okafor has missed seven games and is still out with a strained oblique that he suffered on January 30th. The engine that makes New Orleans go is point guard Chris Paul and he has struggled scoring lately. Paul is averaging just 13 points on 11 for 36 shooting over his past three games. Golden State knocked off one of the best teams in the Western Conference on Sunday, topping Oklahoma City 100-94 at Oracle Arena. The Warriors did it by controlling the boards, they had dominant guard play and played solid defense. All things that they should be able to duplicate against the struggling Hornets. Golden State is 6-2 against thes spread in their last eight games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less and New Orleans is just 1-8 against the Vegas number in their last nine games. Lay the points.

Steve Merril

Hornets vs. Warriors
Play: Over 201.5

New Orleans is mired in a slump; the Hornets have lost 7 of their last 9 games since they won at Golden St back on January 26th. Their problem has been their weak defensive play as they’ve allowed six of those nine opponents to score 101 points or more. And tonight’s challenge will be to slowdown the potent Golden St offense, something the Hornet’s defense doesn’t figure to do since they are in bad current form. The Warriors are playing at home for the 15th time in their last 17 ballgames. They’ve scored 100 points or more in 12 of those 14 home games so that trend should continue tonight, especially since they’ll be facing a struggling New Orleans’ defense. This is also the third meeting of the season between these two teams; the first two games had 213 and 215 points scored. Golden St’s defense allows 105 points per game on 47.7% shooting on their home floor so the Hornets should once again eclipse the 100-point mark against the Warriors tonight. This game will also have plenty of pace to it, and unless both teams are ice cold from the field, this will be a high-scoring game that gets up and Over the total.

Tom Freese

Charlotte Bobcats vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls -9

Charlotte is 24-31 straight up this year. The Bobcats are 6-13 ATS their last 19 games after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Bobcats are 3-7 ATS when playing with no rest and they are. The Bobcats are 5-11 ATS when playing a team with a win percentage of 60% to 70%. Chicago is 36-16 straight up this year. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS their last 8 Tuesday games and they are 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS their last 5 home games. Chicago is 6-2 ATS their last 8 games overall. The Bulls are 9-4 ATS their last 13 games as favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia –104 over TAMPA BAY

Picking up Kris Versteeg can only help the Flyers for their quest to win a Stanley Cup. One of the teams they’re going to have to beat to get there is these Bolts. Philly has lost all three times they’ve played the Lightning this season and you can be damn sure the Flyers are fully aware of that. They need to send a message and chances are they will. It’s difficult to beat the same team four times in a row under any circumstance and you can triple that against a superior club. The Flyers are more balanced, much better defensively and we’re still not convinced that 41-year-old Dwayne Roloson is the answer to the Bolts goaltending problems. Philly begins a four-game trip here but this is the one they want the most. What we’re assured to get is a strong effort from the Flyers with a better chance of winning than the host. Play: Philadelphia –104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

NASHVILLE –106 over San Jose

The Sharkies conclude a two-week, seven-game trip here and thus far they’re 4-2 on said trip. However, they lost the last two games in New Jersey and Florida and scored just three times. The Sharks return home to host the Caps on Saturday night and playing the rugged Preds in the final leg of a two-week trip has to be considered a daunting task. The Sharkies have always had difficulty at this venue, as do most teams, and in a game in which the situation is an unfavorable one at best, it’s certainly not going to be easier. Nashville has won three of its last four games and absolutely dominated both Colorado and Edmonton in two of those last four games. The Oilers had no right winning that game. The Preds also beat Detroit twice over that stretch and come into this one healthy and very confident after the acquisition of Mike Fisher. The Preds have scored nine goals over its last two games and that, too, adds to a team’s confidence. This is an underlay on a Preds team with an outstanding home record in a very good spot. Play: Nashville –106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

N.Y. Islanders +122 over OTTAWA

The Sens have two wins in their past 19 games and one of those wins came in their latest, a 5-3 victory over the last place Oilers. Now they’re –132 favorite over a team that’s playing some very decent hockey and that’s been undervalued for two months. The Islanders have won three in a row and four of its last five. They’ve scored 16 goals over their last two games, nine on Pittsburgh and seven on the Sabres and they’ve scored four or more in all but one of its past five. The Sens are tooth and nails to score anything. Also, Ottawa returns home from a four-game trip minus Mike Fisher. The final three games of that trip came in Western Canada and the Edm-Cal-Van trip is considered by most NHL players to be the physically toughest three-game stretch of the season. Regardless of the outcome, the value here is on the Islanders. They dominated the Sens on Feb 5 in a game they won 5-3 and chances are they’ll be the better team on the ice again. Play: NY Islanders +122 (Risking 2 units).

EDMONTON +130 over Dallas

These two have played three times this season with Dallas winning all three. That’s not very interesting or surprising but what is interesting is that the Oilers deserved a better fate in all three games. In fact, one could argue that the Oilers should be 3-0 against this intruder and not 0-3. In two games in Dallas, the Oilers dominated both times, outshooting the Stars, 41-20 and 35-21. In the game in Edmonton they also outshot them 25-24 and out-chanced them in all three games. If nothing else, the Oilers know they deserve better and after back-to-back lame efforts at home against Anaheim and Ottawa, expect the Oilers to play with a whole lot more fire here in a matchup that appears to favor them. It’s not like the Stars are going good either like they were before. They have two wins in their past nine games. One of those wins was against Edmonton and one was against Chicago in a game they trailed 3-0 and eventually won in OT. Conceivably, the Starts could be on a 0-9 streak right now and laying road juice in this spot with the Stars is a recipe for a bad wager. Play: Edmonton +130 (Risking 2 units).

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Utah Jazz +4.5

The Jazz blew a 12-point halftime lead in a loss to Phoenix on Feb. 11. Utah hasn't played since, which means that defeat has been making its blood boil more each day. Motivated by that loss, and with 3 full days to prepare, expect the Jazz to return the favor. Lately, the Jazz have been a solid investment following an ATS defeat. In fact, they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Suns, which are coming off a SU and ATS loss to Sacramento, are just 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS loss. We also can't ignore how well the road team has fared in this series. Consider that the away squad is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Jazz are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Phoenix. With a few days for the air to clear following Jerry Sloan's exit, the Jazz should be much more focused tonight. Take the points.

Steve Janus

76ers/Grizzlies Over 190.5

I believe the total for this game has been set way to low. 7 of the last 9 meetings have gone over 190.5, with one of those just missing at 190. The 76ers defense has struggled on the road this season, allowing 100 points a game, and should struggle to slow down the Grizzlies at home, where they average 102 points a game. Philadelphia's offense shouldn't be far behind, and I think this game is going to be a lot closer to 200 than 190. This matchup also plays into a very nice situation that really favors the OVER. The over is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 games as a home favorite, and a perfect 5-0 in 76ers last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Villanova -3

Off back-to-back losses to Rutgers and Pitt, expect Nova to dig down deep to get back in the win column tonight. The Wildcats have had their way with the Pirates in recent years. In fact, Nova has won 8 in a row in this series, and 6 of those victories have come by 4 points or more. Seton Hall enters off a 5-point win over Rutgers, but we can't ignore the fact that it is 0-6 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. In addition, the Pirates are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. Lay the number with Villanova tonight.