Info Plays
3* Chicago Bulls -9
Reasons why Chicago will cover:
1) Chicago is 14-4 ATS after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons, and are 19-9 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.
2) This will be the Bobcats fourth game in the last five days, and also the second of a back-to-back as they played the Lakers last night. Memphis is also just 5-16 ATSin road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
3)Play on - any team (Chicago) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%), as its 48-21 since 1996.
Stan Lisowski
Evansville
The Purple Aces have been strong at home this season, especially in conference play where they have won 6 out of 7 games outright. They have serious revenge here, as the Shockers beat them by 34 points in the Missouri Valley opener earlier this year. Home team in this series has won 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Michael Alexander
Wichita State vs. Evansville
Play: Wichita State -5.5
WICHITA ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season over the last 2 seasons
WICHITA ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season this season
WICHITA ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons
Wunderdog
Toledo vs. Ball State
Play: Toledo +14
The Toledo Rockets don't have much to hang their hat on this season. They head into their game with Ball State tonight at 4-21 for the season and winless on the road in 12 tries. The Rockets, however, have been cash cows when getting from +11-+18.5 points on the season, putting together a highly profitable 10-1 ATS mark. Ball State after opening the season at 13-4, have fallen fast over their last seven games where they are just 1-6. They have not beaten any team over their last 13 games by more than 10 points. I'll play Toledo plus the points vs. an inflated number.
Tony Stoffo
Flyers vs. Lightning
Play: Over 5.5
I look for a high scoring game here this evening as the Flyers and Lightning match up once again. My main reason being that Mike Lundin the highly regarded defensemen for Tampa Bay will be out of the lineup tonight with an abdominal injury. Lundin always lines up against the opponents top line and with him up will open things up offensively for the Flyers in this spot. Plus add in that both teams come into tonight's game well rested only will add to a fast skating wide open game making the Over the highly recommended play in this spot. Over is 6-2 in Flyers last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Over is 4-0 in Lightning last 4 home games. Over is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Rob Vinciletti
Wake Forest vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -22.5
North Carolina lost here the last time these 2 played. Tonight they come in off a win on the road vs Clemson as they bounced back from the Duke loss. They have won and covered 5 of 7 off a win this season and take on a Wake Forest team that is struggling. Wake was just blown out at home by North Carolina St by 25 points. The Deacons are 2-8 ats in conference play, good for last place. They also are 0-6 straight up and ats as a road dog from 18.5 to 24 since 1997. They are 1-12 vs winning teams going just 4-8-1 ats in those games. Look for North Carolina to get the win and cover here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Michigan State +12.5
While Ohio State will be looking to bounce back from its first loss of the season, Michigan State is looking to add a resume-boosting win. It's going to be tough for the Spartans to win tonight on the road, but I do expect them to give the Buckeyes a game. After all, my data base shows that Ohio State hasn't defeated the Spartans by more than 12 points even once in the last 13 years. In addition, plays on an underdog (MICHIGAN ST) after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, against an opponent that has gone over the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, are an impressive 25-5 ATS since 1997. It is also worth noting that coach Matta's teams are only 6-18 ATS in their last 24 home games following a road loss. Take Michigan State and the points.
Jack Jones
Oklahoma City Thunder -9
The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off a loss, but I fully expect them to rebound tonight at home as they host the lowly Sacramento Kings. This will be Sacramento's 3rd game in 4 days which is a tough spot in the NBA. Oklahoma City is 18-8 at home this season where they are scoring 107.0 PPG. Sacramento is just 6-16 on the road, scoring 98.9 PPG and allowing 105.5 PPG. The Kings are 9-18 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
Sacramento is 2-10 ATS versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=27 free throws/game this season. The Thunder are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games following a S.U. loss. This team has been tremendous at bouncing back from losses over the last few seasons. OKC is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Thunder have not lost back-to-back games since January 17th and 19th with road losses to the Lakers and Nuggets, respectively. Take Oklahoma City Tuesday.
Ross Benjamin
Air Force vs. UNLV
Play: Air Force +15½
UNLV has gone just 1-7 ATS at home this season versus teams with a winning percentage of better than .500. The Rebels come off an emotional loss at the hands of nationally ranked San Diego St. on Saturday. Once the Rebels watch the tape of Air Force getting destroyed at home at the hands of BYU by 38 points it would be hard to imagine them being 100% into this contest mentally tonight. The Falcons have shown a lot of resiliency this season and this is another spot in which they will display that trait. Air Force is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games all versus conference opponents. In a game that will be much closer than most would expect take Air Force plus the points as my free selection of the night.
Teddy Covers
Mississippi State @ Kentucky
PICK: Mississippi State +17.5
Kentucky won 35 games last year and reached the Elite Eight in the Big Dance last March. But they sure didn’t have any matchup edge over Mississippi State. These two teams played twice in 2010; both meetings went to overtime. This is nothing new or different in this extraordinarily competitive series.
Rick Stansbury’s squad has hung tough with the Wildcats throughout the Tubby Smith era and here into the John Calipari era. We’ve had three OT games, two more decided by five points or less and one nine point MSU win in the six meetings between these two teams dating back to the ’06-’07 campaign.
I’m well aware that 2011 is a different year, particularly for the struggling Bulldogs (13-11 SU, 6-13-1 ATS). But this pointspread is way out whack with historical norms, and it’s way out of whack with the current realities of these two teams.
Kentucky is 5-5 SU in their last ten games. They haven’t beaten a team by more than a dozen points in the last month, consistently unable to extend margins, even against weaker foes. Calipari: “Other than the top five or seven teams everyone has had a lull in their season. We’ve hit ours.” Kentucky has significant depth concerns, with only seven players getting minutes these days. The young, freshman laden squad has struggled with consistency.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State’s tumultuous campaign has left them in position where they need a signature win in the worst way right now. The Bulldogs have notched two SU wins and a three point loss in five SEC road games, and their team chemistry is clearly on the upswing. With Renardo Sidney and Kodi Augustus eating up boards in the paint, and steady senior Dee Bost providing a steady hand at the point, look for the Bulldogs to hang within this inflated spread tonight. 2* Take Mississippi State (#529).
Black Widow
1* on Missouri -16.5
The Missouri Tigers will run the Texas Tech Red Raiders out of the building tonight in Columbia. They have been doing that to teams all season, especially at home. The Tigers are 15-1 at home this season outscoring opponents by 21.7 points/game, while the Red Raiders are 1-8 on the road this year getting outscored by 13.6 points/game. Missouri is scoring a ridiculous 87.2 points/game on 48.6% shooting at home and allowing just 65.5 points/game on 39.6% shooting in Columbia. Missouri is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points over the last 3 seasons. Texas Tech is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in road games versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season since 1997. Take the Tigers and lay the points.