Matt Fargo
3* Virginia Tech Hokies
This is a great spot to play home teams in college basketball. A very favorable situation over the years is to back unranked home favorites when playing against ranked road underdogs. The logic is simple and it is usually an anti-public play as well because the mass majority will be backing the ranked team and in this case it is Wake Forest. Even better in this situation is the fact we are seeing reverse line movement which is always something to consider when looking at where the money is going. As of late Tuesday morning, nearly two-thirds of the action is on the Demon Deacons according to market reports yet this line is going the other way from an opening of -5 to its current number of -5.5 across the board. This is a rather big number to some so why wouldn’t they jump on the ranked team? There are a lot of reasons not to. Virginia Tech is no slouch as a win here over Wake Forest puts the Hokies into second place in the ACC and they have done so with little fanfare which I consider pretty unfair. We all know the ACC revolves around Duke and North Carolina but it is Virginia Tech that is the team that people should be talking about but aren’t. The Hokies are 7-3 in the conference and 20-4 overall and come into this game with an RPI of 49. It is that low because of a relatively soft non-conference schedule but that is far from their fault as the Hokies have played Iowa, Georgia, Penn St. and Seton Hall and all of those teams have fallen well below expectations coming into the season. Currently the Hokies are riding a four-game winning streak and they are a perfect 13-0 at home this season including a 5-0 record in the ACC with the average scoring differential in those five conference games being 7.4 ppg so they have been winning rather comfortably. This is the earliest that the Hokies have reached 20 wins in a season in school history so that should tell you something about the year they are having but no one is talking about. Wake Forest is obviously having a very good season as well but it is not at its best in road games where it is 2-3 in ACC action. One of those wins came in overtime while another came against disappointing North Carolina. Speaking of overtime, the Demon Deacons have won nine games since New Year’s Eve and of those four were in overtime including three at home so they have been good and maybe even fortunate, in winning some of those close games. Virginia Tech does have a lot of statistical edges in this matchup but a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that the schedule has been weaker than that of the Demon Deacons. One statistic that the schedule does not come into play with is free throw shooting, one of the biggest categories in college hoops. Over the last seven games, the Hokies are shooting 80.7 percent from the free throw line with is a great run. They entered this stretch shooting 68.1 percent from the foul line and they are currently shooting 71.8 percent from the charity stripe. Also over this seven-game stretch, they have shot at least 80 percent from the line in five of those games. Wake Forest is just 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better while the Hokies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a home conference win.
Tom Freese
Kentucky at Mississippi State
Prediction: Kentucky
Mississippi St is 18-7 overall and 6-4 in League Play. Guard Ravern Johnson 13.7 points a game while shooting 43% from behind the arc. Forward Jarvis Vanardo scores 13.3 points and 11.3 rebounds and 5 bloked shots a game. Guard Dee Bost scores 12. Guard Barry Stewart scores 11.4 points a game no other players score more than 8.8 points a game. The Bulldogs score 73 points a game. Mississippi St is 1-4-1 ATS off a straight up win and they are 2-6-1 ATS their last 9 Tuesday games. Kentucky is 24-1 overall and 9-1 in League Play. Freshmen John Wall scores 17 points and 6.4 assists a game. DeMarcus Cousins scores 15.9 points and 10.2 rebounds a game. Forward Patrick Patterson scores 14.2 points and 7.3 rebounds a game while shooting over 40% from behind the arc. Guard Eric Bledsoe scores 10.9 points a game. The Wildcats are 22-7-2 ATS their last 31 games as road favorites of 0.5 to 6.5 points and they are 9-4 ATS their last 13 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60% PLAY ON KENTUCKY -
VEGAS EXPERTS
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder
Look for the Mavericks to come out flat after hosting the All Star Weekend festivities. It's not like Dallas was doing well against the pointspread prior to the Break either, failing to cash in 13 of their last 16 games. Oklahoma City, on the other hand, covered its last four games and won its last six. The Mavs are 4-12 ATS off back to back Overs.
Play on: Oklahoma City
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5
It's hard to justify the struggling Pistons laying this many points against any team right now, especially when you consider that they are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. The Pistons are also just 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons. Plus, the Pistons are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The T-Wolves enter this contest playing well, covering the spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a result. With as badly as the Pistons have been struggling, I just can't see laying this many points with them. We'll take the T-Wolves for 1 Unit.
Rocketman
Phoenix @ Memphis
Play: Phoenix -1
Phoenix is 5-1 ATS this year against good offensive teams scoring 99 points per game or more in the 2nd half of the season. Phoenix is 30-14 ATS last 3 years against poor defensive teams allowing 99 points per game or more in the 2nd half of the season. Phoenix has won 5 of their last 6 games overall. Memphis has lost 4 in a row and 6 of their last 7 games overall. Phoenix is 42-14 SU overall vs Memphis since 1996. Grizzlies are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games following a double-digit loss at home. Grizzlies are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss. Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll recommend a small play on Phoenix tonight!
Insider Angles
While we understand why this posted total between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Portland Trail Blazers is on the low side with Brandon Roy still doubtful for Portland, we still see these teams approaching 200 points here.
For starters, the Clippers still play no defense on the road, where they have made worse teams than an injury-depleted Blazers club look like world-beaters. The Clips are allowing 103 2 points per game on 46.6 percent shooting away from home, and the average combined total of their road games of 199.1 points is about seven full points higher than this posted total.
Meanwhile, the injuries to the Blazers seem to be effecting their defense as much as their defense, as the Over is 16-9, 64 percent in their last 25 games. Portland is a great defensive team when fully healthy, but the Blazers have now allowed over 100 points in five of their last nine games and they have allowed an average of 100.0 points on an unbelievable 48.6 percent shooting over their last five contests.
These teams have also gone Over in their two head-to-head meetings this season, and both games produced at least 200 points, with the Clippers winning 105-95 at Staples Center and the Blazers winning 103-99 here in Portland.
Even with so many key injuries, all five Portland starters reached double-digits at Phoenix in a 108-101 upset win by the Blazers in their last game before the break, and they are now facing another defenseless team, only this time they are at home. Look for a third straight Over in the meetings between these clubs this year.
Pick: Clippers/Trail Blazers Over 192
Chuck O'Brien
Creighton +9 at NORTHERN IOWA
Take Creighton plus the points at Northern Iowa in Tuesday’s college basketball action.
Clearly, Northern Iowa is the class of the always-competitive Missouri Valley Conference, and the Panthers do already won a win over the Bluejays this season (60-52 on the road as a one-point underdog). But NIU will be without one of its best players tonight (and for the next two games), as 7-foot center Jordan Eglseder is serving a three-game suspension.
Eglesder is the Panthers’ second-leading scorer (12.2 points per game), leading rebounder (7.6 rebounds per game), leading shooter (53.4 percent) and has a team-high 21 blocks. That’s a lot of production to replace – not to mention Eglesder’s intimidating 7-foot frame that tends to make opponents think twice before penetrating the lane. In the first meeting between these teams this season, Eglesder had 11 points and four rebounds, making 4 of 5 shots.
Even with Eglesder on the court, Northern Iowa has been struggling to cover pointspreads, as it enters this game in a 1-4 ATS slump. That includes Saturday’s 68-59 loss at Bradley as a six-point road favorite.
No doubt, Creighton is in the midst of a “down” season, and the Bluejays really have struggled on the road. But they are a respectable 8-5 in their last 13 games (all in the Missouri Valley), and three of those five losses were by margins of 4, 5 and 9 points. In fact, since the end of November, Creighton has played 22 games only lost twice by more than 9 points. Meanwhile, three of Northern Iowa’s last four wins have been by a total of seven points.
3♦ CREIGHTON
Jeff Benton
Hope you took advantage of Monday’s easy wire-to-wire 5♦ free-play winner on Texas A&M plus the points over Kansas. I’m now on runs of 21-10, 11-4 and 8-3 with plays that I’m giving away! For Tuesday, I’ll stay in college basketball and lay the chalk with San Diego State over TCU.
I acknowledge this could be a bit of a trap for the Aztecs, who are coming off Saturday’s huge must-win over 23rd-ranked UNLV, a 68-58 victory as a 3½-point home favorite. It was a victory that kept SDSU’s Tournament hopes alive, and the players undoubtedly know that if they lose tonight at lowly TCU, they’ll be right back to square one. That’s why I expect the Aztecs, who have won six of their last eight games and are riding a five-game spread-covering streak, will be 100 percent focused coming into Forth Worth.
As part of its 6-2 SU run, SDSU is 2-1 on the road (3-0 ATS), with the only blemish being a two-point double-overtime loss at 15th-ranked New Mexico as a seven-point underdog (and New Mexico never loses at home). If you take away that New Mexico shootout, the Aztecs have given up 58, 57, 48 and 52 points in their last four games (all victories). By comparison, TCU has scored 57 points or less in four of its last six games (all losses).
The Horned Frogs are just 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine Mountain West Conference outings, and they’ve lost three straight and eight of nine to San Diego State. Throw in the fact that the Aztecs have covered in four straight games as a favorite, while TCU is in ATS slumps of 1-10 at home, 3-8 in Mountain West games, 5-14 as an underdog of less than seven points, 16-34-1 as a home underdog and 12-30 as a home ‘dog of less than seven points, and getting the better team (SDSU) at this cheap of a price is too good to pass up.
5♦ SAN DIEGO STATE
Stan Lisowski
KENTUCKY
Bulldogs of Mississippi State are playing their 3rd game in 6 days off of overtime this weekend. Kentucky has always been a strong club laying points on the road particularly in conference play where they stand 9-4 their last 13 ATS in that role.
LT PROFITS
Creighton +9.0
The Northern Iowa Panthers will try to clinch the regular season Missouri Valley Conference title for the second time tonight after blowing a chance to do so at Bradley Saturday, but that fact has inflated this line to the point where the Creighton Bluejays have value.
The Bluejays have revenge on their minds after losing at home to the Panthers in December, and Creighton is one of the few MVC teams that is not intimidated by playing in this building. In fact, the Jays upset Northern Iowa outright here last season, and the visiting teams are now 3-0 both straight up and against the spread in the last three head-to-head meetings.
Granted, Creighton is a disappointing 2-8 straight up in true road games this season, but they are only losing those games by an average of -4.1 points per game, which is less than half of this inflated line. In fact, the Bluejays have only lost two of their last nine road games by more than nine points.
Now the Panthers are nationally ranked and they are a perfect 11-0 straight up at home. However, the oddsmakers have caught up to them in Cedar Falls, as they are on home runs of 0-2 and 2-3 ATS after beginning the year 5-1 ATS here. They did have a six-game straight up winning streak snapped with that loss at Bradley last game, but only one of the six wins during that streak was by more than nine points.
The bottom line here is that Northern Iowa has not been blowing people away lately and Creighton has not been getting blown away, so even if the Bluejays do not prevent the Panthers from wrapping up the MVC title, we so see Creighton staying close in this game from start to finish.
Hollywood Sports
Texas Tech at Baylor
Play: Texas Tech
Despite Texas Tech's 3-6 record on the road, having to lay double-digits on Baylor this evening is just too much wood. Texas Tech (16-8) is 4-4 ATS on the road and their last game away from home resulted in an upset win over Oklahoma as a 6-point underdog. The Red Raiders return four starters from last season's club so this team certainly has played many big games in hostile environments. Baylor (19-5) comes off a narrow 64-62 win over Missouri. Texas Tech has been playing up to their competition as they have covered in five of their last seven games against teams with a winning record. As the college basketball season enters the stretch drive in conference play before tournament season, games are tightening up between the upper tier teams in the major conferences. Substantial favorites at home are vulnerable against feisty road clubs just ask Syracuse and Villanova who have lost straight-up in the last two days to road underdogs Louisville and Connecticut. Expect coach Pat Knight's veteran club to keep this one close with the Bears. Take the points with Texas Tech.
Sean Murphy
San Diego State @ TCU
PICK: TCU +5.5
San Diego State rides into Tuesday's game against TCU on a five-game ATS winning streak, improving to 13-9 ATS this season. But don't be surprised if the Aztecs get all they can handle from the Horned Frogs in this one.
TCU put up a good fight in the first meeting between these two this season, eventually falling by a 67-62 score, but covering as a 13-point underdog. It's worth noting that the Horned Frogs held a nine-point advantage at halftime in that one, and had little trouble against the Aztecs defense, shooting 52.3% overall and an impressive 54.5% from beyond the arc.
That doesn't bode well for the Aztecs considering they've been much weaker defensively on the road this season. They allow just over 63 points per game on the season, but that number jumps to 69.1 ppg on the road. They're 3-2 ATS away from home in conference play, but they've managed to win only one of those five games by more than two points.
The key tonight could turn out to be three-point and free throw shooting. TCU holds the edge in both categories, and that could certainly be the great equalizer in this matchup. Note that the Aztecs have been particularly awful from the charity stripe, connecting on just over 60% of their FT attempts this season.
TCU recently endured a four-game losing streak, both SU and ATS, but has since bounced back, winning two of its last three games. The Horned Frogs are 5-1 ATS in the last six matchups in this series, and haven't lost at home to San Diego State by more than two points since January of 2006. Take TCU.
Larry Ness
Texas Tech @ Baylor
PICK: Baylor -11
Baylor upset Texas and Kansas to reach the Big 12 championship game but lost it to Missouri. However, the Bears, who made their first trip to the NCAA tournament since 1988 in 2008 (and just their second since 1950!), failed to get an at-large bid. Baylor settled for the NIT and a school which hadn't won a postseason game since 1950, made it all the way to the NIT title game before losing 69-63 to Penn St. The Bears' 24 wins last year equaled the 1948 team for the second most wins in school history. Gone from that team are Jerrells (16.3-4.5-4.9), the team's best player, the 6-9 Rogers (12.6-7.6) who was the team's best inside performer plus Dugat (9.4), a valuable guard. Guards Dunn (18.7-4.5) and Carter (16.1-6.1 APG) did return and lead the way for a team currently 19-5 and ranked 22nd in the latest AP poll. The 6-10 Udoh (13.5-10.3), a Michigan transfer, has made a huge contribution this year plus three returning players (seeing more action), round out a team destined to get back to the "Big Dance." The 6-7 Acy (8.8-4.8) and the 7-0 Lomers (6.3-3.4) are solid contributors this year plus the 6-10 Jones, who averaged less than 10 MPG last year (2.4-1.3), is playing almost 30 minutes this year while averaging 6.7-5.6. Texas Tech has nowhere near the frontcourt size of Baylor, as the lone contributor over 6-7 is the 6-9 Cohadarevic (7.2-5.4). The 6-6 Singletary (15.5-6.7) leads the team in scoring and rebounding while a solid group of perimeter players make up the 'heart' of the team. Roberson (15.4-5.5 APG), Tairu (10.5) and Okorie (9.0) run Pat Knight's offense (or should I say his dad's?) and the Red Raiders enter this game 16-8 overall but just 4-6 in Big 12 play. Winning at Waco will be a tough assignment, as prior to winning 72-71 at Norman on Feb 9 (beating the Sooners at home is not the big deal it once was), the Red Raiders had gone 0-4 SU on the Big 12 road, losing by 29 at OSU, by 26 at Kansas, by 12 at Texas and by 15 at A&M. Meanwhile, the Bears are 12-1 SU at home (lone loss came 76-74 to KSU, which is now 7th in the nation), outscoring opponents on average 79.0-to-61.2 PPG. Baylor will be trying for a fifth straight home win over Texas Tech and considering the matchups, should have little trouble getting that win, as well as a cover!
Black Widow
1* on Utah Jazz -3
Utah is the hottest team in the Western Conference, going 9-1 S.U. & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Rockets have lost back-to-back ugly games, losing at home to the 76ers by 7 points and losing at Miami by 33 points. Houston is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall, coming back down to reality. The Jazz are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Utah is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The Jazz are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season. Take Utah and lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Iowa Hawkeyes +4
After losing by double digits at Michigan last last month, I expect a motivated Iowa squad to take the Wolverines right down to the wire tonight. Last season, Iowa lost at Michigan by 15 points, but when the two teams met in Iowa City the Underdog Hawkeyes paid the Wolverines back. Michigan is not having the season it was expected to have and is a very poor 3-8 when playing away from home this season. I just can't justify laying the points here when you consider that the Wolverines are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Plus, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. We'll take the points.