Info Plays
3* on Phoenix Suns -1
Reasons why Phoenix covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road teams (PHOENIX) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This is a 44-13 ATS System hitting 77.2% over the last 5 seasons. This system is a superb 5-1 this season alone.
2.) Phoenix has gone 4-0 SU & ATS in their last 4 road games, solving their problems away from home. Memphis is not playing well at all right now, going 1-6 in their last 7 games. The Grizzlies are 0-4 SU & ATS in their last 4 games, getting beat by at least 7 points in every game. They lost to Houston at home by 18 and to Atlanta at home by 14. Memphis is starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the playoffs. Bet Phoenix on the road.
Jack Jones
Boston Celtics vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings +6
This just isn't the same Boston team that we have seen the past couple of years as the Celtics are just 9-13 since Christmas after losing two straight before the break. Sacramento has been struggling, but they did win their last two games heading into the break and for a young team that helps to have confidence while resting.
The Celtics are 4-12 ATS against the Western Conference this year and 2-10 ATS after an upset loss as a favorite. At home the Kings have been a tough out, going 13-12 by scoring 105.8 ppg against teams who normally allow just 100.4 ppg. The Celtics have played well on the road, but with their recent troubles winning by seven here in Sacramento seems like a tall order.
King Creole
William & Mary +2.5 vs George Mason
This System went 1-1 ATS last night.... bringing it's YTD record to 31-10-2 ATS. Still not bad at all at 76% against the spread.
31-10-2 ATS: All Conference Underdogs playing off BB SUATS wins... with the last win as n Underdog (WILLIAM & MARY). When these confident underdogs are also playing with the MOTIVATION of REVENGE from last season (like W & M), the results improve to a PERFECT 6-0 ATS so far this season.
Dan Bebe
SAC +6 vs BOS
You just have to like the Kings in this spot. It's not often you get a team that has, somewhat sneakily, covered 2 straight games, had their Rookie take home an MVP award at the All Star games (fine, it was just in the Rookie-Soph game, but still), and then get 6 points at home to an old, crusty road club traveling cross-country with a date with the Lakers coming up on Thursday. Yeah, I covered pretty much every angle in one sentence there, but I suppose each is worth elaborating on, if only for a bit. First, the Kings' recent minor bouts of success. They won 2 of 3 games straight up on a road trip through Toronto, New York and Detroit. It wasn't exactly the stiffest of competition, but they actually led in Toronto as well, before melting down in the 4th quarter. I'm starting to get the sensation the Kings might make a little push, and we might very well have seen them bottom out after that 31-point road loss to the Heat back on January 23rd. If we ignore the classic "first-game-home" clunker that immediately followed that awful road loss, the Kings have gone just 2-6 SU, but 5-3 ATS, and I think we can all start to see the line value for this team as they try to turn the corner. These teams haven't played yet this year, so we'll get a rematch in Beantown at some point soon, but with the Celtics having been an ATS nightmare of late (2-10-1 run), they should not be laying 6 points on the road. This number might look like a bargain to the average bettor, but you can bet your ass Boston is gearing up for a rematch with the Lakers on TNT Thursday after losing a heartbreaker to LA at home."
That covered most of the key notes on this game.
The Celtics are in a look-ahead spot to the Lakers, and in a potential rusty spot off the All Star Break and the cross-country road trip. They remain a public favorite despite the awful ATS mark lately, which is the perfect spot to fade a team, since you know you're getting line value.
The Kings are underrated right now off one of the worst stretches of basketball for any team in the NBA, but they're starting to play with purpose again, and a weak team that competes at 100%, especially at home, is a great long-term proposition.
Minding my own advice, we are going small today, so play this one for half a unit.
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA –2 over Miami
We all know the Heat are a rather erratic bunch and it could certainly take them a few games to get back into the swing of things. This Heat team couldn’t care less half the time and this choice is predicated on that fact. If D-Wade doesn’t show they virtually have no shot and after he had a big all-star game in Dallas it sure wouldn’t surprise if he pulled a no-show. A close look at teams coming off the all-star break the past two years shows the home side with a big advantage and that’s really not surprising. Last year the home teams went 8-2 the Tuesday after the break and most of the games were blowouts, which included, among others, a 40-point win by Phoenix over the Clip Joint, an 18-point win by Utah over Memphis, a 26-point win by Houston over the Nets and a 13-point win by the Lakers over Atlanta. The 76ers were gaining a bit of steam before the break with five wins in six games with its only loss over that stretch coming in Toronto against the red-hot Raps. Incidentally, they were down by 25 in that one and tied it up with two minutes to go. So, in what appears to be an unfavorable spot for teams traveling, the Heat have to be considered one of the more vulnerable squads under these circumstances based on a whole slew of no-shows in the season’s first half. Play: Philadelphia –2 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Vernon Croy
1* Take Cincinnati
This pick falls into one of my top NCAAB systems and the Bearcats are overdue to cover the spread against the Bulls since they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against South Florida. The Bulls are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team that has a road record below .400. The big difference in this game will be rebounding and the edge goes to the Bearcats who are averaging 40.7 rpg on the road this season. Take Cincinnati as my NCAAB Free Play for Tuesday night as they come away with the win.