Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, February 18

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Norway +3½ +108 over RussiaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Norway has not won a game yet and they have been outscored by a count of 15-3 in its three games. In fact, the Norwegians haven’t scored more than one goal in any of its three games thus far. The Norwegians have just one NHL player in its roster, Mats Zuccarello, and for a forward he’s playing far too many minutes. The Norwegians chances of winning a medal are about the same as “Philomena” winning “Best Picture” at this year’s Oscars. However, this isn’t about wagering on the Norwegians as much as it is about fading the Russians.
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We all know that the Russians are loaded with talent. However, they are also loaded with guys that have this insatiable desire to be the hero of a nation. Guys like Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Radulov, among others are extending their shifts. Instead of going hard for 30-40 seconds, some Russian players are going hard for 10 or 15 seconds and taking a breather so they can regain some stamina and stay out their longer. Individually, the Russians have some of the best talent in the tournament but as a team, they look very beatable. The Russians may also be without Ilya Kovalchuk for this game. Kovalchuk (karma’s a bitch, isn’t it) injured his leg against the Slovaks and missed practice on Monday. It remains to be seen whether or not he’ll play but even if he does, he’s not 100%. Furthermore, Russia's third and fourth lines have been somewhat invisible. Dallas Stars rookie Valeri Nichushkin is the only one among the bottom-six forwards with a goal. Alexei Tereshenko is the only one among them with an assist (two). Tarasenko, Artem Anisimov, Nikolai Kulemin and Alexander Popov have no points and 15 shots on goal between them. The Russians are very capable of blowing out the Norwegians but we haven’t seen signs of this team thriving at all. In fact, one could argue that the Russians appear to be regressing and now the pressure really intensifies. For the Norwegians, this game will be like playing for gold and we have not seen a thing from the Russians that suggests they are worthy of this billing.
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Slovakia +190 over Czech RepublicFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Czechs have just one win in this event so far and that lone victory was an unimpressive one against Latvia, 4-2. The Czechs lost to Sweden, 4-2 to open the tournament after falling behind 4-0 and they also lost to Switzerland, 1-0 to close out the first round. In watching the Czechs, one could sense that something is just not right with this team. Whether it’s politics, chemistry or something else, the Czechs can easily be taken off their game to the point of frustration. They are having trouble scoring goals while their own goaltending is a disaster waiting to happen. Ondrej Pavelec has not faced a barrage of shots yet but that could change here against the Slovaks, the most undervalued team in the tournament.
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Slovakia is winless in this tournament and they even have a disturbing loss to the Slovenians on its résumé but this team is on the verge of doing some damage. For these lesser teams, the first round really doesn’t mean much, as all teams qualify for the second round and the Slovaks may have played it sneaky good. They Slovaks restructured their approach, switched goaltenders from Jaroslav Halak to Jan Laco and went out and nearly beat the Russians, taking them to OT before losing in a shootout. Laco has thrived in International events in the past (finished second at the 2012 IIHF World Championship) and he thrived on Sunday against the Russians. The Slovaks have a good balance of speed, talent, toughness, defense and they are precisely the type of team that could pull a couple of upsets off in this round. From Zdeno Chara on defense to forwards Tomas Tatar, Tomas Jurco and Marian Hossa up front, the Slovaks have six front-line NHL forwards and four NHL defensemen on their roster. The Slovaks have not played to their ability yet but they are on the verge of doing so while the Czechs are going the other way. Definite upset possibility.

Jim Feist

Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers

The young Cavaliers have turned things around ever since they fired their GM, on a 4-0 SU/ATS run -- winning all four times as a dog! Kyrie Irving's last-minute 3-pointer helped seal another victory for Cleveland -- and the Cavaliers' longest winning streak since LeBron James left. Irving connected from beyond the arc with 27.2 seconds remaining, and Cleveland went on to a 93-89 victory over the Detroit Pistons last week. The Cavaliers have won four in a row for the first time since an eight-game streak in March 2010, not long before James departed for Miami. Tristan Thompson scored 14 of his 25 points in the fourth quarter for Cleveland, overpowering Detroit's vaunted front line as the Cavs rallied from a 10-point deficit in the final period. This team is 11th in the NBA in rebounds and playing some defense. The Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. A team not playing any defense is Philadelphia, 28th in field goal shooting allowing .464% and dead last in points allowed, a whopping 110.4 ppg. The 76ers are 6-16 ATS against the Eastern Conference, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. They finished up a lost road trip last week with a 105-100 loss at Utah. The 76ers lost their eighth straight, the last two by more than 40 points. Philadelphia has given up nearly 116 points per game over the eight-game skid.

Red Dog Sports

Duke vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech +11½

Ga Tech is 9-5 at home and off a nice win over Boston College. They are led by Marcus Georges-Hunt, Daniel Miller and Holsey. They also have Robert Carter back from injury and he averages almost 10 ppg and did score that in the win over the Eagles.

Duke just won at home against an average Maryland team and were down in the last two minutes. Duke is 3-3 on the road and did lose at Clemson last month but did have a nice 80-65 win at Pitt. However, I think Duke may look ahead to Thrusday's road game at UNC. The Blue Devils are led by Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood. Quin Cook, Andre Dawkins, Amile Jefferson and Rasheed Sulaiman are secondary scorers for the road team.

Lee Williams

Atlanta Hawks vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Atlanta Hawks +10½

Hawks come out of All-Star break on 5 game losing streak and we anticipate some improvement after getting a week of rest and also realization that Playoffs may be slipping away if they dont improve.Hawks have had some injury issues but we note they have been a handful for Pacers in last 6 meetings as they have won 3 of those and lost 2 of other 3 by 8 or less.This is also an Indiana team that has not been as dominant in last 12 games as they are just 4-8 ATS in those 12.Look for Hawks to give Pacers another run for money here and take double digits.

Brandon Shively

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers +4

I like Philly catching the points at the house tonight. Cleveland only has 7 road wins this year and they are not allowed to lay points on the road in my opinion. Out of those 7 road wins, only 4 have come by more than 4 points. Cleveland is not inserted as road favorite often either. They are 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS their last 10 tries as a road favorite of -3 to -5 points, including 0-3 ATS this year. Looking at the last 10 matchups between these two teams, Philly is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS. In fact, they beat the Cavs at home earlier this year, 94-79. On the season Cleveland only shoots the ball 42.5% from the floor which just further tells me that they should not be a road favorite. For Philly they have the scorers in Turner, Young, and Michael Carter Williams who should be able to hang in this game. Philly is 5-0 ATS the last 5 meetings in Philly and I don't mind backing the home dog tonight vs. a Cleveland team that does not have good team chemistry and has only won 3 of their 20 road games this year by more than 4 points.

Iowa vs. Indiana
Play: Iowa -3

This is very good Iowa team that is versatile and can go 10 deep if needed to be. They have size, speed, depth, and take care of the basketball; something that the Hoosiers tend not to do. Iowa is a defensive minded basketball team and defense will win this game tonight I do believe. They are holding opponents to 38.8% shooting from the floor and forcing 13 turnovers a game. For Indiana, they turn the ball over 15 times a game and I feel that the turnover differential will account for 6-8 points alone in this easily. Iowa Point guard Mike Gessell has almost a 4:1 assist-turnover ratio and just plays fundamental basketball. Iowa is a big, tall, long, and athletic team. Gessell is a 6'1" point guard, but the other 6 guys that are in the main rotation are all 6'6" or taller. Iowa can go 10 deep if needed. They are versatile and can play different types of basketball. I see this as game where they force turnovers and force Indiana to play their brand of basketball and the final score being in the 10-12 point range. Iowa has no problem playing on the road as they are 7-1 ATS their last 8 road games and are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games vs. the Big Ten. In the past, they have been money in the bank as well when playing Indiana as they are 16-5 ATS the last 21 meetings vs. the Hoosiers and 8-3 ATS the last 11 meetings in Indiana.

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Matt Fargo

Fresno State vs. Wyoming
Play: Wyoming -6½

We played against Wyoming on Saturday and was able to cash a ticket on San Jose St. as the Cowboys were clearly in letdown mode on the road following that huge home win over San Diego St. last week. Now Wyoming is back home and I am expecting another big effort in Laramie as it guns for its third straight win. The Cowboys have been great at home with a 12-2 record with the two losses coming against New Mexico in overtime and against SMU. This is a revenge game for Wyoming as well as it lost in Fresno by five points last month and a win here gets the Cowboys to 8-5 in the MWC which would give them some breathing room in holding on to that all important four spot in the standings. The Bulldogs meanwhile have turned their season around as after starting conference action with a 1-7 record, they have won five straight games to pull within a game of .500. More importantly, they have covered six straight games and I feel that is giving us some good value with the home squad tonight. Defensively, the Bulldogs allow 71.6 ppg to rank 10th in the MWC and their minus 2.3 rebounding margin is last in the conference. On the other side, The Cowboys currently allow just 59.6 ppg to rank second in the Mountain West Conference and 12th in the country and along with Wichita St., they are the only teams yet to allow 75 points this season.

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Scott Spreitzer

Iowa vs. Indiana
Play:Indiana +3½

The Big-10 craziness continued on Sunday when Nebraska beat Michigan State in East Lansing, while Michigan lost on their home floor. Tonight, Iowa has a chance to climb within a game of the two Michigan schools if they can beat Indiana in Bloomington. But I expect a prime effort from the Hoosiers. Last time on this floor, Tom Crean's squad fell apart down the stretch, blowing an 11-point lead over Penn State with 3 minutes to go and losing 66-65. They then hit rock-bottom last time out at Purdue. But it's bounce-back time in my opinion. Indiana is 12-3 SU at home this season and they have the conference's leading scorer in Yogi Ferrell and top rebounder in Noah Vonleh. I expect both to give Iowa trouble. The Hawkeyes are a solid team with a great coach. But there's not a ton of individual or quick-of-foot talent on this team beyond Roy-Devyn Marble. He and Aaron White are the only two players averaging more than 8.3 ppg on the season. While the Hoosiers are rebuilding in 2014, they still have the talent to upend Iowa on this floor. Tom Crean teams are on a 24-9 ATS run as a home underdog of six points or less. I'm recommending a play on Indiana on Tuesday.

Jimmy Boyd

Miami Heat -2

I think we are getting a lot of value on Miami as such a small favorite in this matchup with the Mavericks. The Heat won five of their last six games prior to the All-Star break, with two of those wins coming without Dwyane Wade. They should have Wade back for tonight's matchup, and all the Miami players will have plenty of rest thanks to the break. I think that rest is a big advantage for the better team. Miami has also won five consecutive games over Dallas coming into this matchup.

Miami is 21-9 ATS in road games against poor defensive teams that are allowing over 99 points per game. Dallas comes into this matchup surrendering 101.7 points per game overall, and 102.7 points per game when playing at home. The Heat know it is going to take a strong second half finish to overcome Indiana for the top seed in the east, and it starts with a big win over the Mavericks tonight.

Jack Jones

Butler +9

I've been riding St. John's (17-9) with a ton of success over the past month. However, I believe it's time to shift gears and fade them now that they are being overvalued due to having gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. That's precisely what I'll do tonight.

I'll back the Butler Bulldogs (12-13), who despite taking a step back this season, continue to fight. They have lost four straight, but three of those setbacks have come by single-digits with losses at Marquette (62-69) and Georgetown (63-71), as well as an impressive home loss to Creighton (63-68) last time out.

That Creighton game took place on February 13, so the Bulldogs have had four days of rest and preparation heading into this showdown with St. John's. Meanwhile, the Red Storm are coming off a huge win over rival Georgetown on Sunday, so they only have had one day off in between games. This is simply a tough spot for the Storm, and a great one for the Bulldogs.

St. John's is 5-15 ATS after allowing 60 points or less over the last three seasons. The Red Storm are 1-11 ATS after a game where they committed eight or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons. The Bulldogs are 80-51 ATS in their last 131 games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game. Bet Butler Tuesday.

Rob Vinciletti

Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Washington Wizards -3

We want to play on any home team since 1995 with 4 or more days rest, that scored 110 or more points as a road dog in their last game and are taking on a team that was favored in their last game. While the sample is small at 7-1 ats these teams have won by an average 9 points per game. The Wizards have a little home loss revenge in this one from a 13 point loss here last month and have covered 6 of 7 vs Winning teams in the 2nd half of a season. Toronto has lost 14 of 19 on the road when the total is 195 to 200. So we will back the Washington Wizards.

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Tom Grassi

Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +2½

Two of the three worst teams in the Eastern Conference resume play tonight in Milwaukee, with both teams in strong contention for something few teams want: the best odds in the NBA Lottery.

That said, the Bucks actually have a number of handicapping edges in this game, the first being that they closed out a miserable first half with five covers in their last six games. Second being that the Magic have been a disaster on the road since the calendar turned to 2014, losing their last 12 games, both straight up and versus the line.

The fact that Orlando is slightly favored in this one is another reason to lean toward the home team, since the Magic have only been able to cover five of their last 22 when giving points. They also are weak when the line is three points or less either way, with a 10-22 ATS mark, the latest example coming last Wednesday, when they failed to cover as a slight dog against Memphis.

Milwaukee is hardly a dependable team to back, but in this case, their recent hint of improvement, coupled with the losses that continue to pile up every time Orlando plays anywhere but home are enough for us to take them in this one, so take the points.

Art Aronson

San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers -4½

The San Antonio Spurs are still a little beat up and I don’t think they have the guns to run with a strong LA Clippers team looking for payback for a big loss in San Antonio the last time these teams met. Expect the Clippers to get revenge here as the team is 13-7 ATS revenging a road loss to an opponent this season. Clippers star guard Chris Paul showed that he is ready for a strong second half after a stellar All-Star game and a 20 point, 12 assists performance against Portland closing out the first half. The Clippers are three games back of the Spurs and know this is a huge opportunity to draw closer in the standings. The Spurs are just 1-3 ATS as the underdog this season and has failed to cover the spread in three of its’ last four games. The Spurs have a game in Portland on Wednesday night and you have to think the Spurs’ coach Greg Popovic won’t run all his top players into the ground in the first half of the back-to-back. The Clippers have won three straight and are a strong 23-4 on home court this season. Also note that the 4-2 ATS as a home favorite 3.5-6 points this season. Consider laying the points here.

Nick Parsons

Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Washington Wizards -3

These teams have played twice this season and the Raptors have won both, both SU and ATS.

I believe the Wizards are worth a second look tonight as they seek some vengeance for those setbacks.

One player you’ll want to track this evening is Wizards point guard John Wall who rejoins the club after participating in the all-star game. Wall comes in exuding confidence and is averaging a very respectable 19.8 points and 8.4 assists per game thus far.

Wall will also be be looking to help his team get off the schneid at home as Washington has dropped its last two at the Verizon Center.

Wall is clearly not the only one that can do damage for the Wizards though as all five starters (also backup Martell Webster) are averaging more than 10 points per game.

Note that Toronto is already just 1-2 ATS this season when playing with three or more days of rest.

And note that Washington is 7-3 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent.

Toronto is at home to the Bulls tomorrow night, another team which it’s beat recently; as good as the Raptors were down the stretch of the first half, I think it’s safe to say that there are a lot of significant factors working against them today.

Consider a second look at Washington in this one.

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Toronto vs. WashingtonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: WashingtonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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While the Wizards went into the All-Star Break on a losing streak (1-4 SU last 5 games), three of those losses were one possession games & they remain a profitable team. In fact, going back to an outright win in Golden State on January 28th, they are 7-2 ATS last nine games overall....
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Toronto was one of the bigger surprises of the first half of the season. They currently lead a weak Atlantic Division by 3.5 games. They won their final two games before the Break, but both were at home. They've lost three of their previous four road games to drop to .500 overall away from home this season. Whether or not this team remains near the top of the Eastern Conference throughout the second half remains to be seen.
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This is a double revenge spot for Washington, who has covered six of its last seven games against teams w/ a winning record. At home, look for them to start the second half out on a winning note and cover this spread w/ room to spare.