Steve Rosen
New York Knicks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: Memphis Grizzlies -5½
Memphis took three of four heading into the break and limited opponents to an average of 84.3 points in that span.I expect them to come into this game just as good, if not better.The Grizzlies have taken three of the last four in the series, including a 95-87 triumph in New York on Dec. 21.
New York is opening a four-game road trip and is 8-14 away from home. The spread was similar the last 2 times the NYK visited Memphis with it being between -4 to -6. I expect Memphis to win by 8-10 points! NYK has only covered once in their last 6 games before the break. Memphis wins and covers tonight!
Dennis Macklin
Northern Iowa vs. Drake
Play: Northern Iowa -1
Northern Iowa is another team in my mind that is showing "buy signs". The Panthers have won and covered their last two after only getting the money once the way we keep score in eight prior. NIU has owned the Drakes in the series winning five straight and nine of ten in the series. They've also dominated this floor where they've won five straight including four of five by 7+ points. Drake is just 3-5 as a dog this year and MVC home dogs of five or less are just 3-5-1. Northern Iowa is definitely worth a look.
Sean Higgs
South Florida vs. Louisville
Play: Louisville -22½
Yes, we are laying over 3 TDs, but I think this is a 30pt cake-walk. UL getting major points from their bench. South Florida 3-14 ATS last 17 in the series. Even with a revenge game against Cincy next, I cannot see UL coming off the throttle here. The favorite is 10-1 ATS last 11 and that should continue tonight with LOUISVILLE pummeling this group.
Jeff Alexander
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets +2½
As if four consecutive defeats don't serve as enough motivation, Denver will also be motivated by losing the season's first three matchups with Phoenix. Underdogs that average 103.0 ppg or more and trailed by 15 points or more at the half in their last game are 59-28 ATS since 1996. Additionally, Denver is 11-2 ATS the last 3 seasons after trailing in its previous game by 15 or more points at the half. Home underdogs that failed to cover the spread in their last game are 76-38 ATS since 1996 when they are playing 3 or less games in 10 days. The Nuggets are 26-9-2 ATS in their last 37 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest and 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The home team is 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings, and the Suns are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Denver. Bet the Nuggets.
Jesse Schule
Toronto at Washington
Pick: Under
The Raptors are sitting in 3rd in the Eastern Conference, and first in the Atlantic Division, 3.5 games up on the Nets. They are on the road tonight, taking on the Wizards in Washington. The Wizards lost back to back games prior to the All Star break, but both of those losses came on the road in close games, decided by a combined four points. We might expect another tight game here tonight, as they have a history of playing close games against Toronto. We have also seen the under cash in a winning ticket in seven of the last 10 meetings between these two teams, yet the total in tonight's game is higher than it was in each of the last six meetings. Toronto ranks 4th in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, allowing just 96.9 points per game. Both these teams have above average numbers defensively, and below average stats offensively. I think tonight's number is a little high all things considered, and I expect it will be difficult for these teams to reach the total.
Bruce Marshall
Villanova at Providence
Pick: Providence
An automatic recovery by Villanova after a second beatdown this season at the hands of Creighton (obviously a bad matchup for this year's Wildcats) is no sure thing. Especially against a desperate Providence bunch with its own revenge motivation following the 30-point whipping it absorbed from 'Nova on Jan. 5 in Philly, when the Friars were "fried" by halftime, down 50-26, with the Cats shot uncharacteristically-well (60% FGs). Providence at least enters this rematch with some momentum after all cylinders were firing in Saturday's blowout win over DePaul, when each PC starter scored in DDs. And the Friars own a great equalizer in any matchup with explosive G Bryce Cotton (21.2 ppg; has scored 28 or more in three of his last five outings). This outcome is far more critical for Ed Cooley's bubble-riding hosts.
LT Profits
Detroit vs. Illinois-Chicago
Pick: Illinois-Chicago +2.5
The Illinois-Chicago Flames have lost 15 straight games and are 0-12 in the Horizon League, but they have had quite a few close calls, they are 6-4 ATS their last 10 games and they were probably victims of home cooking in a 59-56 loss at Youngstown State Saturday where they shot four free throws all game while Youngstown shot 30! One thing that UIC does well is it surprisingly ranks 26th in the country in defensive rebounding, and that was a key reason why the Flames covered in their first meeting this season vs. tonight’s opponents, the Detroit Titans, limiting Detroit to eight offensive rebounds in a six-point road loss. Thus the Titans do not figure to get many second chances again here, and that is a problem for a Detroit team ranked 313th in effective field goal percentage. Illinois-Chicago is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
Larry Ness
Missouri St. at Illinois State
Prediction: Illinois State
Missouri State is 17-9 overall but SEVEN of those nine losses have come in conference play, leaving the Bears at 7-7 in the Missouri Valley Conference, the same league mark as Illinois St, which is a more modest 14-12 overall. Missouri State travels to Normal for a MVC showdown with Illinois St at Redbird Arena, tonight..
The Bears lost guard Marshall (14.3) to an injury back on Jan 11 and have been pretty mediocre since (5-5 SU and ATS). The 6-5 Gulley (14.8-6.2) plays forward and no other teammate averages more than 8.5 PPG, now that Marshall is sidelined. Missouri St is a perimeter-dominated team best evidenced by the fact in its last game Gulley grabbed 11 rebounds, while no other Missouri St starter had more than a SINGLE rebound.
Illinois St is also a guard oriented team, as the 6-10 Lynch (7.6-4.4) starts with four guards, Knight (13.1-4.4), Hunter (10.8-3.5-2.5) and Zeisloft (6.7-3.3). Lofton is the first player off the bench and the 6-4 sophomore guard is the team's third-leading scorer (10.4-3.1). The 6-9 Jones (5.6-3.7) broke a bone in his foot in late January but Samuel (3.0-2.5), a 6-9 JC transfer, has averaged 6.0 & 4.8 in about 19 MPG over his last six contests.
Missouri State needed overtime on its home court against Illinois State (won 78-70) and here in Normal, Illinois St has gone 10-1 SU since opening its season with home losses to Drexel and Manhattan. The Redbirds lone home loss during that 10-1 run came against Wichita St, which surely shouldn't be held against them (Shockers are 27-0 TY!).
Hollywood Sports
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles (37-18) begins the post-All Star break looking to avenge a 116-92 loss at San Antonio back on January 4th -- and they are supported by a historical revenge angle that has been 63% effective since 1996.
In games between two teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range, when a home favorite in the 3.5-9.5 point range looks to avenge a double-digit loss on the road to their opponent, these home teams have covered the point spread in 115 of the last 185 situations where these conditions applied. Despite that victory and point-spread win for San Antonio (38-15), they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with the Clippers. Lay the points with the Clippers in this one.
Rocketman
Missouri State @ Illinois State
Play: Illinois State -5
The Missouri State Bears travel to Illinois State to take on the Redbirds on Tuesday night. Missouri State is 17-9 SU overall this year while Illinois State is 14-12 SU overall on the season. Illinois State is 10-3 SU at home this year. Missouri State is 25-44 ATS last 69 games after allowing 60 points or less. Illinois State is allowing only 64 points per game at home this year. Missouri State 2nd leading scorer Marcus Marshall (14.3 ppg) is out tonight. Illinois State is 6-2 ATS last 8 home games. Home team is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings in this series. Illinois State is 11-4 ATS last 15 meeting between these two teams. We'll recommend a small play on Illinois State tonight!
Sam Martin
Texas at Iowa State
Prediction: Texas
Cyclones were on fire to begin the year, but they haven't done much of late - especially at the betting window where they have dropped nine of their last ten games overall. That includes an embarrassing 25-point loss at West Virginia as a small road favorite about a week ago, and while Iowa State may win this game outright, we don't think they can win by a large margin.
Texas has been "sneaky" good over the last several weeks - not getting much respect from the linesmakers but forging ahead nonetheless. They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins against Oklahoma State (by 19 points) and West Virginia (by 17 points), and after scoring an upset win against these Cyclones there's nothing on paper suggesting they can't stay close to them again here.Iowa State 0-6 ATS playing with revenge and won't win this one big - maybe not even at all!
Steve Rich
Kentucky vs. Ole Miss
Play: Kentucky -4½
The Rebels aren’t playing very well right now. They have lost 4 of their last 6, granted the two wins were at home, but they were versus So. Carolina and Mizzou, one is just plain horrible and the other is horrible at best on the road. The Rebels Henderson is dangerous from everywhere in the building shooting the ball, averaging 19.5 ppg.
Kentucky played a good game against Florida Saturday coming up short against the seriously more experienced Gators. My clients won with Florida in that game for mainly that reason. I am hoping here that HC Calipari of Kentucky was able to get his youngsters to buy into the fact they played decent they were just beaten by a better and more experienced team. You have to play the full 40 minutes. I think the difference tonight is the Wildcat defense that holds teams to 66.4 ppg and 39.6% from the floor, including only 29.5% from the arc. Add the rebounding advantage for Kentucky and well, let’s just say lay the points in this one.
Steve Janus
Los Angeles Clippers -6
The Clippers went into the break riding an impressive three-game winning streak, all of which came at home. Los Angeles is a dominant 23-4 at the Staples Center this season, which definitely makes you feel comfortable laying the points with the Spurs not having starting point guard Tony Parker.
This game is crucial for the Clippers, as they come in sitting in a three-way tie for third in the Western Conference, just two games back of San Antonio for the No. 2 seed and six games behind the Thunder for the top spot.
San Antonio is a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs teams who are winning more than 60% of their games. Not to mention the Spurs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win by more than 10 points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs the Western Conference.
Much like we saw in the second meeting, revenge figures to play a key role in the outcome of this game. The Clippers 24-points loss at San Antonio was their worst loss of the season. That is more than enough reason to expect Los Angeles to come out 100% focused out of the break. Keep in mind that Chris Paul was sideline with an injury in that game at San Antonio.
We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 or more points in a game involving two good teams are 115-69 (62.5%) ATS since 1996.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Texas/ Iowa State Over 154: Surprise! Gonna look at the Over in this one. Both teams love to push tempo and neither has played great defense of late, which should lead to a high scoring game. These teams are used to that as 13 of the last 17 in the series has gone over the total, plus the Over is 20-5-1 in Iowa State's last 26 home games, while the Over is 14-6 in Texas' last 20 vs the Big 12. Texas struggled to score in their last 2 road games, but those were vs slow down teams in KSU and TCU, so that pretty much can be expected. Overall this year Texas has averaged 73 ppg on the road and Iowa State has struggled on defense in the Big 12, allowing 79.5 ppg (Regulation Only) overall and 72 ppg at home. Texas should be good for the mid 70's here, especially in a fast paced game. Texas has played solid defense of late and they allow just 72.4 ppg on the road, but this Iowa State team is tough to slow down at home, where they have averaged 86 ppg on the year overall, including 78.8 ppg at home in Big 12 play. Both teams love to run and both should get plenty of points vs suspect defensive teams. This should be a shootout so sit back and enjoy.
San Diego State/ Utah State Under 128.5: The Under is 16-4 in Aztec games this year and the Under 16-5 in their last 21 home games. Two big reasons for that are that they slow the pace and play excellent defense. The Aztecs are 3rd in the nation in points allowed (57 ppg) and 4th in FG% defense (37.7%), while at home they have been even better, allowing just 54.2 ppg on 35.6% shooting. Tough to get much going on offense on the Aztecs home floor, especially for a Utah State squad that averages just 64.8 ppg on 42.3% shooting on the road this year. The Aztecs are not a very good offensive team at home, as they score just 68.1 ppg on a mere 40.2% shooting on their home floor this year. Utah State hasn't played bad defense on the road this year allowing just 68.2 ppg away from home and they should be able to keep SDSU in the mid 60's at best. I look for a 65-55 type of final here.
San Jose State/ Nevada Under 134.5: Is there a more pathetic offense in the nation right now than the San Jose State Spartans? I don't think so as they come in having averaged just 47 ppg on 30.2% shooting in their last 5 games. That is horrible. I know that Nevada isn't the greatest defensive squad in the nation, but they do allowed just 40.9% shooting and 70.2 ppg on their home floor, and the Spartans haven't scored more than 56 points in any of their last 8 games. San Jose State is a poor defensive club, that has allowed 76 ppg on the road, but overall they have played better defense of late, allowing just 64.4 ppg in their last 5 games and that is just what Nevada has averaged in their 6 MWC home games this year (Regulation only). This should be a rather slow paced game as it is the only way that San Jose State will have a shot at winning this one. Even if they are sped up a little they just dont have the punch to put many points on the board. Nevada has been weak on offense in their MWC home games and San Jose State has been playing very good defense of late. This one should stay in the 120s.
2 UNIT PLAY
Clemson/ NC State Under 121: The Tigers have the 2nd best scoring defense in the land, allowing just 56 ppg, while at home they have been even more amazing at that end of the floor, allowing just 49.2 ppg. Now they take on a NC State squad that has averaged just 64.1 ppg on 40.8% shooting on the road and in their last 2 road games vs slow down teams (Syracuse and Miami), they were able to score just 55 and 56 points. No team may be slower that Clemson in the ACC, especially on the their home floor. The Tigers offense has been stuck in reverse of late as they have averaged just 52.8 pg in their last 5 games and that includes an OT game vs Notre Dame thrown in there. Clemson only averages 63.8 ppg on 42.6% shooting at home and while NC State allows 68.9 ppg on the road, they do so on just 39.6% shooting. Clemosn's last 5 games have averaged just 108.4 ppg, while their home games have put up just 112.7 ppg this year. Very hard to see this one played in the 60's at all.
Will Rogers
George Washington vs. Richmond
Pick: Richmond
Tuesday's free play is on the Richmond Spiders (a team that has been kind to me recently).
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Opposite Directions - GW has lost two in a row while Richmond has won three straight. One could logically point to the level of competition each has faced during this time as the reason why the schools are streaking in opposite directions, but fact is that its going to be hard for the Colonials to turn things around laying points on the road, especially after losing tough games to VCU and UMass. Richmond easily won its last two games, by a total of 29 points, against Duquesne and Fordham.
2. Homecourt - Richmond has lost only two times at home this season, the last one coming all the way back on December 22nd in overtime against Ohio. Since then, they've only lost four times and three of those were against Florida, VCU and St. Louis. The last time GW played a road game, they were admittedly crushed by VCU, losing by 17. I made the mistake of backing the Colonials there. Not this time.
3. X-Factor - GW is just 4-4 straight up in road games this season.