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Vancouver vs. ChicagoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Situational Analysis
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Vancouver is one of just three teams to hand the Blackhawks a loss this year; it wasn't able to get the job done in regulation though. Roberto Luongo is 4-0-3 with a 1.63 GAA. Corey Schneider is 4-3-0 with a 2.62 GAA.
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Most recently the Blackhawks are coming off a 3-2 home victory over LA on Sunday. In this strike shortened season, every game is crucial: "What's important to us is getting home-ice advantage, making the playoffs," said Chicago captain Jonathan Toews yesterday. "Those are our goals. Once you get there, the real season starts. When you get to that point, no one really cares or remembers those streaks at the start of the season." Goaltender Ray Emery has been key to the team's success, going 5-0-0 with a 2.17 GAA. Corey Crawford is 7-0-3 with a 1.65 GAA.
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Statistical Analysis
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Note that Vancouver has seen the total go "under" the number in three of four when playing against a team with a winning record, and in its last three road games where the total is 5.5.
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Note that Chicago has seen the total go "under" the number in four of five vs. teams with winning records and in all four home games this year where the total is 5.5.
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Pick Analysis
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This is a 1* free play on the "under" between the Canucks/Blackhawks. Three of these teams last five in the series have indeed gone "under" the posted number, including their lone matchup this season, a 2-1 shootout victory for Vancouver on February 1st. I'm expecting a similarly scrappy, tight-checking, low-scoring affair this time around as well.
Matt Rivers
Comp play for Tuesday night is the Celtics plus the points at Denver.
Why not?
Boston has only lost once straight up in their last nine games prior to the break, and one of those wins was an overtime thriller over the Nuggets in Beantown.
The Celtics have won four of the last seven series meetings both straight up and against the spread versus the Nuggets, so even if the outright win is out of the question, I would think the C's should be there plus the generous spot.
The Nuggets went to the break with losses in each of their last three (at Boston included), so any win tonight would be a good win for George Karl's team.
I will call for Denver to avenge the loss to Boston just before the break, but I am calling for Boston to keep it close at the Pepsi Center.
Take the Celts plus the points.
3* BOSTON
Brad Wilton
Tuesday night free play comes in college. Going with Florida as the road favorite over host Missouri.
Nothing against the Tigers, but their game is not suited to go toe-to-toe with this year's Florida edition.
The Gators demolished the Tigers on January 19th at the O-Dome, as Florida won going away by 31 points. Florida is on a 10-3 spread run their last 13 games, and they are building a pretty strong case for snaring a #1 seed come Selection Sunday in a couple of weeks.
Missouri has gone just 3-3 straight up their last six on the SEC trail, and they are on a 3-6 spread slide their last eight games overall.
Mizzou was not close at Florida in January, and I don't think they will be close at home in Columbia tonight.
Take the Gators.
5♦ FLORIDA
Jeff Benton
Tuesday freebie is North Carolina as the road chalk at Georgia Tech.
This may not be a "vintage" UNC edition under Roy Williams, but the Heels still had enough talent to easily get by Tech in the season's first meeting, dumping the Yellow Jackets by a 79-63 margin on January 23rd at Chapel Hill.
North Carolina snapped a two game losing streak with the home win and cover over a dangerous Virginia team over the weekend, and while the Heels have lost their last pair on the conference road, I like them to get back on track with the road win tonight.
The Yellow Jackets were able to get a hard-fought win at Wake Forest over the weekend, but they still have lost eight of their last twelve games overall, including that first meeting at North Carolina.
Prefer siding with a UNC team that still has work to do to get themselves comfortably into the big dance picture.
Take North Carolina.
2♦ NORTH CAROLINA
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Virginia at MiamiFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: VirginiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that UVA will lose this game by seven or fewer points. I had Clemson as a 25* Titan winner Sunday as they came very close to pulling off the upset against Miami. Still, Miami showed the fortitude and will to just win even in a hostile environment. The public has become greatly enamored with the Hurricanes and this has caused the lines in their games to be significantly inflated. Moreover, coaches are getting more game films to study and prepare game plans that will work very well against Miami. Such was the case with Clemson, who out played Miami, but simply failed to close the deal in the final minute. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 108-66 ATS mark for 62% winners since 2007. Play against a favorite after 9 or more consecutive wins in games played in February. This system under scores, who the public tails streaking teams and forces to inflate the line, thereby giving you an excellent shot at taking the home dog. Further, UVA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Take Virginia.
Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Georgia Tech +3½FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game falls into a system to play against an up-temp team that averages 62 or more shots per game after making 13 or more 3 point shows in their last game. This trend is 236-151 (61%) since 1997. This trend is extremely relevant in this matchup because North Carolina is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 39% or less over the last two seasons. Going back beyond two seasons, Roy Williams is 13-26 ATS versus teams allowing less than 39% shooting after the 15 game mark in the season so I expect to see the Tar Heels taking a lot of bad shots in this game.
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This North Carolina team has been overrated and inconsistent most of the season. Roy Williams is 50-68 ATS off a win against a conference rival as the coach of North Carolina. The Tar Heels have struggled on the road with a 5-7 record straight up and 5-6 ATS. The Yellow Jackets are solid at home with a 10-4 record and should be able to play the Tar Heels in a very close game.
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Maryland -1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Coming off their biggest win of the season the Terps should be feeling pretty good. They always get up for Duke but will have to maintain that intensity in a road tilt against a B.C. team that while struggling in the W-L columns has been surprising. The key for Maryland is going to be focusing on center Alex Len inside as the Eagles have no answer for the big man. Point guard Pe’Shon Howard remains suspended but since they were able to upend the Blue Devils without him his value is questionable. As a short favourite with momentum the value is all on the Maryland side in this one.
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TCU +5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas has only one road win all year and TCU is a tough place to play. Just ask Kansas. Texas may indeed get a win here, but 5 pts in a game like this is about 10 in any other game. Its just too many possessions. The longhorns are not exactly great from the foul line either. Take TCU.
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Denver Nuggets -8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This Boston team looked down and out when Rondo went down to injury, but has played well since then. I think you are going to start to see this team come back down to earth a little bit here especially on the road. Denver is coming off a tough road stretch and now are back home and rested after the break. Take the Nuggets.
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Valparaiso at Loyola ChicagoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: ValparaisoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Loyola has been an overvalued commodity for much of the season at home. Prior to Saturday's win over rival UIC, the Ramblers failed to cover six straight at the Gentile Center. Tonight they play host to an opponent in Valparaiso that is eager for a big win. To start, the Crusaders are looking for payback after losing on their home court to the Ramblers back in early January. Second, after blowing Saturday's game against Detroit, Valpo's lead in the conference standings is only a half game. But the real key to this game is the health of Loyola’s Cully Payne and Ben Averkamp. Loyola managed a "hump up effort" without the duo against weaker UIC. Tonight against a far better opponent, their absence could be magnified. In the first meeting, Payne and Averkamp combined for 30 points and 12 assists. As of this morning, Payne (thumb) is doubtful and Averkamp (concussion) is questionable. If neither play, Valpo becomes a solid bet.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NEW ORLEANS +114 over ChicagoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bulls went into the All-Star break as the most depleted team in the Association. They’ll come out of the break much healthier with Derrick Rose remaining as the only player still on the shelf. With Rose due back soon, Chicago looks primed to make a run at the Heat to represent the East in this year’s finals. What’s so interesting about that is Chicago has Miami on deck in Chicago on Thursday in TNT’s nationally televised game of the night. That’s the game everyone is anticipating, making this spot a vulnerable one indeed.
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The Hornets are playing well. They’ve won two straight and four of five before the break, doing so in dominating fashion. All four wins were by nine or more with the past two, over Detroit and Portland, coming by 19 and 36 points respectively. New Orleans also has an abundance of scoring options with five players averaging double-digits. New Orleans is deep, they’re clicking on both ends of the floor and they’re in a favorable spot. That’s enough for the money play here.
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SACRAMENTO +9 -101 over San AntonioFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Spurs have the NBA’s best record and will now continue their season long nine-game trip here. Said Spurs guard Tony Parker, "It's always tough the first game after the All-Star break to get back into the routine”. In its first game back after the break last season, San Antonio lost outright to the visiting Bulls. In 2011, they failed to cover at home against Oklahoma City in same situation. Those were games against a couple of clubs that are easy to get up for. Playing against Sacramento, on the road where the Spurs have won nine straight, is just not motivating.
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The Kings have shown some fight at home recently, where they have won two straight over the Jazz and Rockets. This could very well be the Kings’ last 15 games in Sacramento as a Seattle-based group of investors has already reached an agreement with the Maloof family to buy 65% of the franchise. The community support for the Kings has been overwhelming and the building has been electric over the most recent games. Sacramento has responded well and we expect more of the same tonight. The points being offered are abundant and simply too good to pass up.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Jose +113 over ST. LOUISFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. After an ugly 0-5 stretch that including four losses at home in which the Blues were outscored 21-8, they embarked on a three-game trip and went 3-0 while scoring 13 times. Now the Blues return home to face a Sharks’ team that is going through a similar plight. San Jose has dropped seven in a row after winning its first seven games of the year. This will be the fourth game of a six-game trip for the Sharks and so far they have one point to show for it. It’s rather mystifying how a team can struggle so miserably after looking near flawless in the first two weeks of the season. A turnaround is inevitable for this talented guest and the stars may have aligned just right for that turnaround to begin here.
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Traveling take its toll. Waiting around an airport for hours on end for your flight takes an even bigger toll. The Blue Notes played in Vancouver Sunday night and decided to remain in the city overnight before returning home Monday morning. But flight delays forced the Blues to remain in Vancouver as the flight finally left early Tuesday morning, St. Louis time. At the time of this writing (about 9:00 AM EST), the Blues just arrived. Chances are good they’ll be either flat, tired or both tonight and that’s an angle worth fading against this extremely hungry foe.
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Vancouver +115 over CHICAGOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Blackhawks remain the last team in the NHL without a regulation loss, meaning they’ve picked up points in all 15 of their games. It’s even more impressive when you consider that they’ve played 10 of their first 15 games on the road. There’s not a negative thing to say about their outstanding current form. What we can say, is that Ray Emery is the Blackhawks backup goaltender that has had plenty of opportunities with the Blackhawks and other teams (Anaheim, Philadelphia and Ottawa) to prove himself as a #1 goaltender. He’s never been able to hold the job because he’s always been far too inconsistent. Having Cory Schneider in net for the Canucks tonight against Emery gives Vancouver a significant edge in that all-important area. That must be considered because the last three games these two have played against one another and five of the past seven have all gone into OT.
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Despite losing two straight (one in OT), the Canucks still have one of the best records in the league with 19 points, tied for third place in the West, behind Chicago and Anaheim. Vancouver is healthy, they’re 3-1-1 on the road and they’re simply too dangerous when facing a back-up goaltender to ignore when taking back a tag.
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Charlotte vs. OrlandoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CharlotteFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last week, I said it takes a lot to get me to release a selection on the Charlotte Bobcats, who have the worst record in the league and are just 5-35 SU their last 40 games. But that didn't stop me from releasing a free play on the Bobcats last Monday as they upset the favored Boston Celtics, who were riding a seven-game win streak, but playing in the second game of back to backs and off a 3 OT game.
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I played Charlotte there because their opponent was suffering from a lack of rest. That's clearly not the case here as its the first game after the All-Star Break. However, they do benefit from the fact they are playing the second worst team in the league, Orlando, who has lost 24 of 27 games. Even better is that because the game is in Orlando, the Magic have to give points, a situation that has treated them very poorly all season. Orlando is 0-9 ATS the last nine times in which has been favored.
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Defensively, the Magic were just awful entering the All-Star Break, allowing an average of 110.3 points the last three games. At the same time, they are averaging just 87.4 PPG the last nine games. They have lost 12 of 14 on their home floor and clearly are in no position to be laying points to anyone, Charlotte included, right now.
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TCU +5.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Take the Horned Frogs here at home against hated rival Texas, a game they have had circled all year. Yes TCU is an ugly dog here, but a live one in my opinion, and remember they did beat Kansas in here. Texas has not won a road game all year in conference action and while they may get the win, which is doubtful in my mind, Texas is a big hot mess right now and TCU lying in wait for this one. I will take the points in what should be a down to the wire type of game.
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Marquette -6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seton Hall without 2 starters due to injury here and that is bad news for them here. Seton Hall has covered just 1 game at home all season! Marquette has the better team in almost every stat that counts, and the fact Seton Hall is scoring just 58 ppg their last 5 games and shooting 58% from the free throw line as a team, and Marquette had a big advantage on offense and a deeper bench has me laying the points on the road here in a 10-12 point win. Seton Hall has dropped their last 3 home games.
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Washington Wizards -2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Raptors return from the All-Star break riding a 4-game winning streak that includes big time wins over the Pacers, Nuggets and Knicks. There's no question that the public is high on Toronto now that they have Rudy Gay, but I look for them to struggle on the road tonight against a much-improved and extremely underrated Wizards team. Washington was just as impressive prior to the break. The Wizards won four of five with impressive wins over the Clippers, Knicks and Nets.
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Washington has been extremely tough to beat at home of late. They have won 8 of their last 9 overall at the Verizon Center. Adding even more value to the Wizards as a small home favorite is the fact that Toronto hasn't won in Washington since 2009. The Wizards are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 homes games and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs the Eastern Conference.
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Denver Nuggets -8FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Denver Nuggets head into the second half of the season highly motivated for a victory. That's because they entered the All-Star break on a three-game losing streak thanks to an absolutely brutal schedule. They had to play four road games in five days heading in. After winning the first two, they would drop the next three as they were simply worn down.
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Refreshed and ready to go after the break, I look for Denver to roll at home tonight. That has been the case all season for this team as it has simply been unbeatable inside the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets are 22-3 SU & 17-8 ATS in all home games this season. They scoring 109.2 points/game at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.0 points/game.
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Boston comes in overvalued after winning eight of its final nine games heading into the break. It is just 8-15 SU & 7-14-2ATS in all road games this season. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.
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The home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. That includes a 118-114 (OT) victory for Boston on February 10th just over a week ago. Denver's loss in that game puts it in revenge mode tonight. The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Denver is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home meetings with Boston.
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The Celtics are 10-22 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. The Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Denver is 40-19-2 ATS in its last 61 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.