DAVE COKIN
UTAH STATE AT BOISE STATE
PLAY: BOISE STATE -9
Turn back the clock twelve months, and there’s no chance I’d be making this play. But Stew Morrill is no longer the head basketball coach at Utah State, and the fear of laying a substantial price against the Aggies is no longer the major concern it used to be.
The current Utah State edition has some limitations. The Aggies actually posted the best non-conference record of any MWC team, but that was misleading as they faced a very soft schedule early on and their only good win came against a weary North Dakota State squad. Utah State was no match for the three quality programs they faced, and it’s therefore not a surprise that this team has struggled since league play got rolling.
The Aggies would appear to be arriving in Boise on the wrong night. The Broncos are off back to back losses. They got rolled in the second half last week here in Las Vegas, and followed that up with a home loss to New Mexico. In both instances, Boise State got burned on a regular basis defensively. I’d be very surprised if there’s not a little more focus on that aspect of the game this evening.
Boise State did pretty much what they wanted to in the first meeting with the Aggies. That will often eliminate the possibility of spotting a good sized number in the rematch as complacency become an intangible that often comes into play. But off the two losses, I have to believe we’re going to get a good level of intensity from the Broncos this evening.
That’s really what this come down to. I’ve seen enough of Utah State to have arrived at a determination that, while they’re solid when it comes to handling teams at their own level or below, they aren’t especially capable of stepping up in class and getting the same results. If Boise State is again lethargic on the defensive end, then anything can happen. But off the back to back defeats in what can only be described as less than inspired efforts, I expect a good Broncos showing tonight. If that’s the case, this should be a comfortable win for the hosts. I’ll lay it with Boise State.
Bruce Marshall
Butler -9.5
With neither of these teams yet on safe side of the Big Dance cut line, and with several tough Big East rumbles on deck for each, there's a bit of urgency attached to the efforts of both. Georgetown won at Hinkle Fieldhouse last season and its best effort can probably get it over the hump. But the Hoyas have been erratic, alternating wins and losses and with no spread covers their last three, as JT III continues to search for reliable scoring options other than G D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera(16.4 ppg). Butler's potential vulnerabilities in the post (underlined when Marquette's 6-10, 245-lb. Henry Ellenson scored 32 on Saturday) are not likely to be exploited by G'Town, and the better-balanced Bulldogs and their four DD scorers can attack from more angles. Butler sharpshooter Kellen Dunham has been connecting on 58% of his triples over the past eight games!
Mike Lundin
Bucks vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -7
You just gotta love the surging Portland Trail Blazers Tuesday night when they take the Milwaukee Bucks home at Moda Center. Milwaukee has lost five of its last six and is off a 111-104 setback at Sacramento last night. We can expect to see some tired legs here, and that does not bode well against a Portland team that has finished games very strong lately. The Trail Blazers are off four straight wins home in Portland and they're 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are on fire and the latter ranks eighth in the NBA with 113 3-pointers on the season while Lillard has topped 30 points in four of his past 11 contests.
Heath Mac
West Virginia vs. Iowa St
Play: Under 157
This should be a great game between two very good teams. Both teams have some nice wins this season and are capable of beating anyone on their day. Iowa State has the better offense, but West Virginia has the better defense. The Mountaineers full court press can prove very disruptive to even the most organised offenses and does run valuable clock time off every possession.
These teams played twice last season and neither final score came close to this total. This is an important game for both teams and we expect to see the intensity levels up. The fact that Iowa State has gone UNDER in 5 straight games while scoring at least 72 points in 4 of those 5 games shows us that the books are setting the totals on the high side for the Cyclone’s games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Iowa State's last 6 games when playing West Virginia
Marc Lawrence
Western Michigan vs. Toledo
Play: Toledo -5½
Edges - Rockets: 16-7-2 ATS home in this series, including 10-2 ATS off a loss. Broncos: 1-5 ATS off a win this season, including 0-3 ATS in conference games. With the Rockets 4-0 ATS at home in games off BB home losses in their last two games, we recommend a 1* play on Toledo.
Alex Smart
Clemson vs. Wake Forest
Play: Clemson -1
Clemson enters this road game playing well with recent wins vs Duke and Pittsburgh and a valiant effort vs Virginia, while the Deacons are at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum and playing rather badly . The Tigers have won five straight in ACC play, and six of seven. Meanwhile, Wake Forest, has lost six in a row to sink to a sub par 10-11 overall and 1-8 SU in conference play.
Clemson has put itself in solid position for the program’s first trip to the NCAA Tournament since Brad Brownell became head coach before the 2010-11 season and are very aware of what it takes to get there, and I don't expect a let down from them vs an inferior and desperate side.
With that said, Im betting the difference maker tonight comes via the Tigers strong charity stripe shooting which ranks fourth in the conference with a free-throw accuracy of 72.8 percent and their disciplined ball control which ranks seventh with a turnover margin of plus-1.14 per game.Wake Forest, in contrast, ranks 14th with a free-throw accuracy of 66.7 percent and 15th with a turnover margin of minus-3.84 per game.
The Tigers are 8-1 ATS vs conference opponents this season.
Frank Jordan
Kentucky vs. Tennessee
Play: Kentucky -7.5
This is a great SEC battle as Kentucky travels to Tennessee Tuesday night. Kentucky is the 20th ranked team in the nation at 16-5 with a 6-2 conference record while Tennessee is 10-11 on the year with a 3-5 conference record. Kentucky is coming off a tough six point road loss at Kansas 90-84, but before that won three in a row and five of six. Tennessee is coming off back to back losses, but bother were on the road and lat time they played at home they beat a ranked team in then 24th ranked South Carolina. Tennessee will fight hard in this game especially Kevin Punter who is putting up some good numbers, averaging 24 points per game in his last five games, but the team play of Kentucky will out shine him as Murray, Ulis, and Briscoe will all dump in 15+ for Kentucky as they win by 10.
Jim Feist
Raptors at Suns
Pick: Over
Two clubs going in totally different directions. The Phoenix Suns have lost four straight games and 10 of their last 11 games. Meanwhile, the Raptors are on a 11-game win streak. Moreover, Toronto has covered five of the last seven and eight of the last 11. The Raptors are also scoring lots of points, eclipsing 100 in each of their last eight games. The clubs met once this year in Toronto, with the Suns taking the game, 107-102 and going over the 203 total. Toronto has gone over in seven of its last nine road games and when playing with no rest they are 35-16 O/U. The last five meetings between these clubs have gone OVER and I like the OVER here again on Tuesday.
Sleepyj
Kent St. / Central Michigan Over 143
I made my number for this game at 148...So i find value with this number being off by 5 full points here...Two good offensive teams here and two teams that I think lack on the defensive end of the ball...I'll trust my numbers here and play this one OVER the total.
Akron/Ohio - OVER 147 - Another MAC game that i have being off by 5 points...I made this line 152 for this game...Two high scoring offensive teams in this one..My only concern is if Ohio can break through or not..I think they can as these teams know each other here..Both a good assisting teams and that will help loosen up the defenses in this one...I'll trust my numbers here again.
Will Rogers
Celtics vs. Knicks
Play: Under 207
The Boston Celtics had won five consecutive games prior to a 119-114 defeat at Orlando Sunday. They might be due for a let down at Madison Square Garden tonight as they'll come up against the Knicks who will be desperate to record a win. The total appears to be a little inflated, and my money is on the under.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Motivational - The Knicks have lost five of their last six with the lone win a 102-84 victory against reeling Suns. They're still third in the Atlantic division, 4.5 games behind the Celtics in second, so a win here is of the essence both to snap out of their current funk and to stay relevant in the race for a playoff spot. They should be giving 110% effort on defense.
2. Previous History - The total has gone under in 13 of the last 19 meetings between the two teams, and tonight's total is much higher than it was in any of the previous 10.
3. X-Factor -The Knicks have gone under in five of their last six overall.
Jimmy Boyd
West Virginia vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa State -4½
The Cyclones are showing some great value here as small home favorite against the Mountaineers. West Virginia comes into this game off an embarrassing 71-88 loss at Florida and have now lost 3 of their last 5 overall. There's no question the absence of Jonathan Holton (suspended) was felt in the loss to the Gators and he won't be available against the Cyclones.
Iowa State also comes in off a road loss, though they were much more competitive against a much better team in a 62-72 loss at Texas A&M. That was a much closer game than the final score would indicate, as the Aggies pulled away in the final few minutes. Prior to that the Cyclones had won 4 straight conference games, including back-to-back home wins over Oklahoma and Kansas. Iowa State is 10-1 on their home court and have one of the best homefield advantages in the country. This is a statement game for the Cyclones, who still have a legit shot at winning the Big 12 regular season title.
Iowa State is a dominant 49-19 ATS in their last 68 home games as a favorite of 6 or less and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after playing their previous game on the road. Cyclones are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games.
Power Sports
Indiana vs. Michigan
Pick: Michigan
John Beilein's Wolverines sure seem to be "peaking" at the right time. The Maize and Blue have won five of six, the only loss coming to Iowa, and here at home have been particularly dominant. Tonight, they welcome in an Indiana team that almost blew a huge 19-pt lead vs. Minnesota its last time out. Lay the points here.
Here in Ann Arbor, Michigan is 11-1 SU and outscoring foes by 21.2 points per game. That's obviously quite impressive. The one loss came very early in the campaign to a Xavier team that has emerged as one of the best in the country. Caris LeVert was their leading scorer when he went down w/ a leg injury, but the team has still managed to go 7-2 straight up in Big 10 play thanks to a top ten ranking (nationally) in both turnover rate and 3-pt percentage. Saturday vs. Penn State (in New York), they held a double-digit lead much of the way and were never ahead by less than six in the final five minutes. Clearly, this is a team playing well.
Indiana is in the top 25, but I will continue to maintain that tends to overvalue a team, especially when matched up w/ a ranked foe like the Hoosiers are here. Last week was not a great one for IU. I went against them in a visit to Wisconsin where they suffered their first Big 10 loss of the campaign. As mentioned above, they bounced back w/ a win over Minnesota Saturday, but that game actually ended up being far closer than it should have been as the Hoosiers blew all of a 16-point lead. Don't discount the impact of Michigan's 3-point defense, which holds opponents to 31 percent here at home. The Hoosiers have covered only one of five "true" road games.
Brandon Shively
Georgetown vs. Butler
Play: Georgetown +5
Butler comes into this game with only two covers in their last ten games. Those two covers were when they were a 19.5 and 24 point favorite. In closer matched games, they have failed to cover and have had a hard time winning. Butler is 2-4 SU their last six games with the two wins being against Saint John's and DePaul.
Georgetown comes into this game 0-3 ATS their last three games. Georgetown has played close games though the majority of the season. Their last four losses have come by 3, 5, 6, and 8 points. They also played Duke to a 2 point loss and Maryland to a 4 point loss earlier this season.
Georgetown is 5-1 SU all time vs. Butler. Butler has not scored over 63 points in regulation vs. Georgetown in these six meetings. That is important to note in what is expected to be a closely played game. If Butler doesn't score 63 points here and even if they score in the 69-71 point range, I feel good about Georgetown's chances of getting a cover. Take Georgetown plus the points this Tuesday night.
Jesse Schule
UNLV at New Mexico
Pick: New Mexico
The Lobos come into tonight's home game against UNLV as winners of three straight, and they are asked to cover just a few points against a struggling Rebels team. The Lobos are sitting in second in the Mountain West, while the Rebels are sitting in seventh with a 4-5 record in conference play. UNLV is just 2-5 on the road, and their last road game was a 65-63 loss at Nevada. New Mexico has been quite formidable at home, with a record of 9-2. They've scored an average of 80.7 points on 51.1 percent shooting in their 11 home games. UNLV on the other hand has scored an average of just over 65 points per game on the road. This is a big revenge game for New Mexico, as they lost 86-74 at Las Vegas earlier this year. Elijah Brown scored 24 points on 10-of-20 shooting in that game, and he's tallied a whopping 80 points over his last three games. The Rebels have failed to cover in four of their last five road games, while the Lobos are 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall.
Wunderdog
Minnesota @ New York
Pick: Over 5
Minnesota has slipped on defense, allowing 16 goals the last seven games, including three or more goals four times. That's a concern as they face a NY Islanders offense ranked eighth in the NHL in goals scored. They've scored 16 goals the last four contests. The Islanders are a point off the playoff cut line. They entered the break with a 4-2 home loss to Detroit last Monday, but overall the offense has produced, going 3-1-1 in their last five. They are on a 6-4-1 run OVER the total. With both teams rested, look for more offense coming out of the break than oddsmakers expect. Play this one to finish OVER.