The Gold Sheet
LA Monroe at LA Lafayette
Play: LA Monroe +10
In this intense instate rivalry, strongly recommend cohesive ULM, a solid 6-3 its last 9 as a Sun Belt visiting dog (one of those Ls was by 3 pts. in OT as 2-pt. underdog). The defense-oriented Warhawks are now thriving on the attack end, thanks to ever-improving 6-1 sr. G Justin Roberson (12.3 ppg), who's operating effectively with savvy jr. PG Nick Coppola (9.8 ppg, 4.8 apg). With ULM's 6-10 sr. star F Majok Deng (19.2 ppg) banging with the Ragin' Cajuns' top "big," 6-11 sr. F Shawn Long, Keith Richard's crew is capable of winning its third straight in the series. ULL is only 1-3 SU as single-digit chalk TY.
GoodFella
Kentucky -4 1st Half
I don't think this Vols club matches up well vs this very talented and long Kentucky club. Tennessee should get crushed on the boards vs this strong rebounding Wildcats team. Kentucky is much longer/taller and should get plenty of 2nd chance pts this evening. They should also limit this Vols club to 1 shot and done on the defensive side of the ball. I look for the Wildcats to dominate the glass and handle their business on the ROAD in this spot. Yes, most of the "cool" folks will be on the "home dog" here, but I just see this as strong value on this Kentucky team laying just 4 points for the 1st half.
Ian Cameron
Columbus at Edmonton
Play: Edmonton -130
The Edmonton Oilers are rewarded with a nice “return from the All-Star Break” gift tonight with the return of their #1 overall draft pick from last year in Connor McDavid. McDavid returns for the first time since November 3rd after suffering a broken clavicle. McDavid had 12 points in 13 games before the injury and I think he’ll provide an emotional boost and also help offset the recent injury to top center Ryan Hugent-Hopkins. Columbus pulled off a two-game home-and-home sweep against the reeling Montreal Canadiens before the break but it’s still a Blue Jackets team that is currently tied with Toronto as the worst team in the Eastern Conference. It’s a beatable foe for Edmonton and even though the Jackets put two wins together, often times we do not see positive momentum prior to the break carry over. Columbus is forced to ride Joonas Korpisalo in net as both Sergei Bobrovsky and Curtis McElhinney remain out long-term due to injury. Edmonton has enough firepower to take advantage this shortcoming. It’s worth noting the Oilers’ goaltending has been better of late with Cam Talbot currently playing his best hockey of the season. He grades out as having the edge in between the pipes over Korpisalo. Despite Edmonton’s overall losing record, they’ve played well on home ice with a 13-10-1 record at Rexall Place. I like the situation and the current price of -130 to fire on the home favorite.
Dave Price
Celtics/Knicks Under 209.5
This total has been bet up to 209.5 points today, and I believe there is some serious value with the UNDER here between the Celtics and Knicks. The recent history between these teams warrants a bet on the UNDER as well. The Knicks and Celtics have combined for 209 or fewer points in 19 of their last 20 meetings. The Knicks will control the tempo in this one because they are playing at home. New York prefers to play in the half court as it ranks 23rd in the NBA in pace at 96.1 possessions per game. Boston is 13-2 to the UNDER in its last 15 road games off a loss by 6 points or less. New York is 33-17 to the UNDER vs. teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
Jack Jones
Bowling Green -2.5
The Bowling Green Falcons will be hungry for a win tonight at home against the Ball State Cardinals. They have lost three of their last four coming in against three of the top teams in the MAC in Toledo, Kent State and Central Michigan.
Now the Falcons get to go up against a Ball State team that is their inferior. The Cardinals have also lost three of their last four, and their only two wins over their last five games have come by a combined 3 points.
Bowling Green simply owns Ball State. It has gone 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Falcons won both meetings last season by double-digits with a 12-point road win and a 13-point home victory.
The Falcons are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up loss. The Cardinals are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss. Ball State is 3-12 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.
Scott Rickenbach
Bucks vs. Blazers
Play: Under 205
Tough loss to stomach with the free pick involving Milwaukee yesterday as the Bucks were headed for a solid under in Sacramento only to see it sneak over the total by one point due to a ridiculous 67-point fourth quarter. You certainly won't see something like that happen too often and I love the value with coming right back with an under involving Milwaukee. The Bucks are now in Portland and the total has risen from an opener of 202 all the way up to a 205. Mind you this is even though last night's game had no business going over the total. Huge value with the under here. The under has cashed in all but 8 of the Bucks last 25 games against Northwest Division opponents. Also, Portland enters this game on a 3-game under streak and having seen 6 of their past 7 games stay under the total. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams have stayed under the total and the last two meetings (including one earlier this season in Milwaukee) have totaled 183 points or less.
Brandon Lee
Clemson vs. Wake Forest
Play: Clemson -1.5
The Tigers are showing some great value here as a small road favorite against the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest gave Virginia a scare in their last home game, which I think is playing into this line. At the same time, Clemson comes in off a 11-point loss at Florida State as a mere 4.5-point favorite. The Tigers haven't lost back-to-back conference games to this point and Wake Forest has just 1 conference win and that was a mere 3-point win at home against NC State. I fully expect Clemson to want this game more and I just don't see Wake Forest putting up much of a fight. Keep in mind the Demon Deacons are just 5-5 at home this year. Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after playing their previous game as an underdog, while the Demon Deacons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Brian Hay
Duke vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Duke -3½
The Duke Blue Devils have certainly not played well so far this season as they come into this game with an overall record of 15-6 and a road record of 3-2. They are just 9-10 against the spread. We have all come to expect much more from Coach K's teams. Georgia Tech has actually done better this season than most expected. The Yellow Jackets have an overall record of 12-9 and a home record of 9-3. Duke has had several days off to get things moving in the right direction. Coach K is one of the two best coaches in basketball and I fully expect him to fix the problems and get the road win in Atlanta tonight. Georgia Tech played well during the nonconference portion of the season but they have lost six of their last eight games. Duke has beaten Georgia Tech is 32 of the last 35 games including 11 of the last 13 games in Atlanta. This is a game Duke has to win and I believe they do in in convincing fashion. Duke is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss in their previous game.
Chase Diamond
Celtics vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks +3½
This game features the 27-22 Celtics at the 23-27 Knicks. Celtics have been hot 7-3 last 10 Knicks are the opposite 3-7 last 10 but we are getting a good line from Vegas due to the Knicks struggles. Knicks beat Boston at Boston just last month. Knicks are on a bad 1-5 SU run but with both Stars back in the lineup they should be ready for a upset win tonight. Public is all over the road Celtics here as 66% are backing them.
SPORTS WAGERS
Montreal +113 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. No team needed a break more than the Canadiens and no team needed to start on the road after the break more than the Habs. Montreal is coming off back-to-back, 5-2 defeats to the Jackets. They have one win in over their last eight games, a 3-2 OT victory over the reeling Maple Leafs. However, Montreal has also outshot eight of their past nine opponents including the past four in a row. The Canadiens have allowed 26 shots on net or fewer in four straight and in six of their last nine games. Outshooting your opponent constantly and allowing such few shots on net consistently reveals that the Habs are playing well but they’re not getting the goaltending or puck luck that is required to win games from time to time. Montreal’s luck has been all bad over the past six weeks but this team is too good to be losing at the pace that they have been and the break figures to have served them well.
Philadelphia caught the Capitals flat in the first period of their 4-3 victory against them just before the break. Prior to that win, Philadelphia had dropped three in a row to Toronto, Pittsburgh and Boston. The Flyers rank second last in the league in shots against per game, which puts them on the same level as the Senators. The difference however is that Philly does not have Erik Karlsson, nor do they have the balanced scoring that the Sens possess. The Flyers have been playing better and they also have one of the best lines in the NHL but they are much more appealing as a dog. As the chalk, the Flyers are far too risky because they’re so vulnerable to surrendering goals. Steve Mason is back in goal for Philadelphia here, which doesn’t hurt our chances because Michal Neuvirth is the superior goaltender. The line says the Habs have a great shot of winning and everything lines up well for that to happen.
St. Louis +119 over NASHVILLE
OT included. It’s a difficult spot for the All-Star hosts, as they returned home from a four-game trip through the Canadian West Coast prior to the break. They went 4-0 on said trip and upon returning home, one had to suspect that they had plenty to deal with. Requests for All-Star tickets from family and friends and a hoard of media are just a couple of examples of what the Predators players had to deal with upon their arrival home. On that aforementioned trip, the Preds generated just 28, 25, 19 and 24 shots on net. They beat the Canucks despite being outshot 29-19. We don’t have a goalie confirmation for the Predators yet but whether it’s Pekka Rinne or Carter Hutton, give a significant edge to Brian Elliott of the Blues.
The superior goaltending is going to win a very high percentage of games. That alone makes the Blue Notes worthy of a wager here. Prior to the break, St. Louis lost to Chicago, 2-0 but credit Cory Crawford for stealing one. The Blues have picked up points in nine of their last 11 games. They also get some healthy bodies back and that leaves just one major injury to Jaden Schwartz but he’s likely back on Thursday. St. Louis has defeated Nashville four straight games. They have lost to the Preds just three times over the past nine meetings. All those losses were by just one goal so again, this one is very likely going to come down to goaltending. Nashville’s set of weak goaltenders do not have the opposition shaking in their blue suede skates.
Columbus +118 over EDMONTON
OT included. Getting Connor McDavid back is great for both the NHL and the Oilers but the kid is going to need a game or two to his “game speed” back after missing 37 games. He’s also likely to be a bit cautious in his first game back. Edmonton hasn't posted a regulation win at Rexall Place since Dec. 21 against Winnipeg. The Oilers come off the break having lost seven of its past nine games while recording 26 shots on net or fewer in four straight and in eight of their past 10 games. The return of McDavid figures to inject some energy into the team but it also slightly inflates the number.
Columbus has a history of slow starts and strong finishes. For years, the Jackets have surged after the All-Star break prompting many analysts to predict a strong follow up season. That strong follow up never happens but that’s another story. What we know for sure is that the Jackets picked up five out of a possible six points in three games prior to the break. The Blue Jackets now head out on their annual Western Canada road trip. The team has earned victories in at least two of the three games (at Edmonton, Vancouver and Calgary) for four straight years on this trip including a sweep last season. Goaltender Joonas Korpisalo has been spectacular so the injury to Sergei Bobrovsky has been a blessing. Korpisalo is 4-0-1 with a 1.58 GAA and a .953 save percentage in his last five starts. He was 4-1-2 in seven appearances in January (six starts), finishing with a 2.14 GAA and a .935 SV%. He had the fifth highest SV% in the NHL among goalies that played in at least six games in January. The trade that sent Ryan Johansen to the Preds for Seth Jones has been a positive one for both teams. Jones has averaged 24:14 in his first 10 games as a Jacket, almost five minutes more a game than with the Predators. He and his defense partner, Ryan Murray, have combined for a +12 plus/minus rating in the past seven games while contributing on the offensive end too. This is the time of year that the Jackets get it going and so we’ll roll with them until they prove otherwise.
ANAHEIM -½ +129 over San Jose
Regulation only. The Sharks are very warm with eight wins in their past 10 games. They’re coming off a 6-1 pasting of the Avs just before the break and have scored four goals or more in six of those 10 victories. When a team scores three goals or more in a game, its win % shoots through the roof and the Sharks are no different. However, we’re not so convinced that the Sharks are all that. San Jose has played a lot of leaky teams during this current hot streak that includes Toronto, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary, Dallas, Ottawa, Arizona and Colorado. The Sharks PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage) has been sky high over this 10-game stretch, which reveals just a lot of bounces going their way. Shooting percentage is by far the most luck driven stat in hockey. For the vast majority of NHL regulars or teams, a high PDO over an extended stretch of games comes crashing down the next during the next stretch of games (see Dallas, Ottawa, Montreal, Toronto, etc). San Jose is very simply not going to keep scoring goals at the pace they are on right now. At best, this is a playoff bubble team.
The Ducks are anything but a playoff bubble team. Put Anaheim very high on our list of teams to back in the final three months of the season. Bruce Boudreau has been mixing and matching lines all season long. He seems to have finally found the right mix that continues to dominate games. The Ducks are coming off a 6-2 win in Boston. They have outshot 14 straight opponents with many of those being by a wide margin. Anaheim’s analytical rankings are climbing fast too. In fact, the Ducks have shot up all the way to #1 in Corsi against and all the way from 14 about a month ago up to #7 in Corsi for. The Ducks have it all. They get Cam Fowler back and they have another defensemen, Shea Theodore, whose name is going to pop up often in the second half because he’s that good. From top to bottom, the Ducks might be the most complete team in the NHL and they’re finally starting to play like it. Anaheim’s 22-25 record is in line for a serious correction to the good. They’re favored here but they’re still underpriced so we’ll play them in regulation time only.
SPORTS WAGERS
Georgetown +5½ over BUTLER
Butler has dropped six of its last nine games. The Bulldogs three wins over that span occurred against DePaul twice and St. John’s once. The Bulldogs last good win was against Purdue on December 19th. All of the Bulldogs good victories this year have been close and now they’re being asked to win by a margin. Butler has a 2-point victory over Cinci, an eight-point win over Tennessee, a five-point win over Temple and that aforementioned victory over Purdue was by just six points. Against all the other notable opponents (Miami, Providence (x2), Xavier, Creighton and Marquette), the Bulldogs have lost outright.
In their losses earlier in the year versus Maryland and Duke, the Hoyas lost by just two and four points respectively. We love teams that have been hanging around in losses. It reveals and shows toughness. Those difficult losses are a tweak away from being victories and the Hoyas have notable ones. They have already defeated Xavier, Marquette, Syracuse and Creighton. They are 6-3 in conference play and their biggest loss over their last seven games was by six points at UConn. The Hoyas have been showing up for just about all their true road games vs. big-name foes and hanging in there pretty much all the way. After knocking on the door at ‘Nova and UConn recently, G-Town may have found a place where they’ll get the answer they seek if they remain persistent for 40 minutes.
Bruce Marshall
South Carolina at Georgia
Pick: Georgia
Frank Martin's South Carolina continues to maintain altitude and appears to be cruising into its first Big Dance berth since the Dave Odom years. But the Gamecocks have had some trouble on the SEC trail, where they have lost recent games at Bama and Tennessee. And scrappy Georgia (7-1 vs. the line last 8) continues to provide plenty of spread value, as Mark Fox's all-upperclassmen backcourt (J.J. Frazier, Kenny Gaines Charles Mann) is not allowing Bulldogs to lose contract with any foe and keeping UGa close in spread covers at potent LSU & Baylor last week.
David Banks
Georgia Tech +3.5
It has been a long week in the midst of an atypical season for Duke, the defending national champion and perennial powerhouse who comes into Tuesday’s visit to Georgia Tech having lost four of its past five. The Blue Devils have been idle since an 80-69 defeat Jan. 25 at Miami, and start the week unranked for the first time since the end of the 2006-07 season - and even head coach Mike Krzyzewski understands why Miami fans serenaded his team with chants of “overrated.”
“We’ve got to get healthy, get fresh again and keep figuring out how we might win,” Krzyzewski said to reporters afterward as the Blue Devils continue to struggle without forward Amile Jefferson, giving up 42 points in the paint against the Hurricanes. “The league is so difficult and we’re limited.” The Yellow Jackets have six conference losses coming by a total of 29 points – the latest a 60-57 defeat Saturday at Syracuse, as leading scorer Marcus Georges-Hunt scored only six points after averaging 25.3 in his three previous games. Georgia Tech could not hold a four-point lead with six minutes left, getting outscored 11-4 in the closing minutes. “We just didn’t make enough plays down the stretch,” Georgia Tech coach Brian Gregory lamented to the media afterward.
Vegas Butcher
Miami Heat +4
Miami’s advantage in this one is their 8th ranked defense, 6th in eFG% allowed. You know that Harden will try to take the game over, but the Heat have enough wing defenders to take turns slowing him down. Neither Whiteside nor Howard are playing tonight. This favors the Heat, as Miami will go small with Bosh at Center, space this terrible Houston D out and get a number of open looks. Miami is a better team and I have this game at +1 Heat. Not sure why they’re catching this many points but I’ll back the ‘value’ tonight.
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Kentucky at TENNESSEE (+8)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Kentucky Wildcats have a tough chore on their plate, in traveling to face the Tennessee Volunteers in tonight's SEC showdown. And while I'm sure the 'Cats should win this game, I'm not so sure they're going to cover the number. I like the home underdog here, as Tennessee is going to keep it closer than comfort for John Calipari's boys.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor in this one is Tennessee's offense. The Vols have found a knack for scoring early and often. They know how to put a team on its heels, and have been in more close calls, than blowout losses. Though Tennessee is 10-11 on the year, it jumps out to leads and controls the early tempo. I like the Volunteers to punch the bully in the lip early in this one, and keep it close.
BOTTOM LINE is - Saturday's loss to Kansas snapped the Wildcats' three-game winning streak and dropped them to 2-4 in true road games. I don't know if they're still hungover a few days later, but it could have an affect on this game, and Kentucky might still be a bit tired from a strenuous game, and heartbreaking loss.
3* TENNESSEE