Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday February, 21

DUNKEL INDEX

Virginia at Virginia Tech
The Cavaliers look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Virginia is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cavaliers favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-2)

Game 711-712: Xavier at Massachusetts (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 62.271; Massachusetts 65.312
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 4; 146
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 1; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (-1); Under

Game 713-714: Clemson at Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 61.201; Georgia Tech 59.803
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 1 1/2; 124
Vegas Line: Clemson by 3 1/2; 120 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+3 1/2); Over

Game 715-716: Kansas State at Missouri (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 67.579; Missouri 75.805
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 8; 135
Vegas Line: Missouri by 9 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick Kansas State (+9 1/2); Under

Game 717-718: Georgetown at Seton Hall (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 69.458; Seton Hall 66.072
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 3 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 1 1/2; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-1 1/2); Over

Game 719-720: Illinois at Ohio State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 58.780; Ohio State 77.720
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 19; 133
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 15 1/2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-15 1/2); Over

Game 721-722: Michigan at Northwestern (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 70.529; Northwestern 69.748
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 1; 125
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 2 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+2 1/2); Under

Game 723-724: Illinois-Chicago at Butler (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 49.718; Butler 60.044
Dunkel Line: Butler by 10 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Butler by 13; 126
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (+13); Over

Game 725-726: Kent State at Miami (OH) (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 56.688; Miami (OH) 52.637
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 4; 127
Vegas Line: Kent State by 1 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (-1 1/2); Under

Game 727-728: Auburn at Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 58.527; Florida 74.245
Dunkel Line: Florida by 15 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Florida by 17; 133
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+17); Over

Game 729-730: Evansville at Creighton (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 56.871; Creighton 69.989
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 13; 141
Vegas Line: Creighton by 10 1/2; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-10 1/2); Under

Game 731-732: Cleveland State at WI-Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 55.291; WI-Green Bay 51.944
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 3 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 1 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (-1 1/2); Under

Game 733-734: Loyola-Chicago at Valparaiso (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 49.558; Valparaiso 59.398
Dunkel Line: Valparaiso by 10; 122
Vegas Line: Valparaiso by 12 1/2; 120 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+12 1/2); Over

Game 735-736: Miami (FL) at Maryland (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 66.599; Maryland 62.011
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 4 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-2); Over

Game 737-738: North Carolina at NC State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 71.598; NC State 67.394
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 4; 146
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 6 1/2; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC State (+6 1/2); Under

Game 739-740: Virginia at Virginia Tech (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 65.931; Virginia Tech 62.199
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 3 1/2; 118
Vegas Line: Virginia by 2; 114 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-2); Over

Game 741-742: Kentucky at Mississippi State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 74.213; Mississippi State 66.688
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 7 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 9 1/2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+9 1/2); Under

Game 743-744: New Mexico at Colorado State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 70.918; Colorado State 66.664
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 4 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 6; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+6); Under

Game 745-746: Wofford at NC-Greensboro (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 52.479; NC-Greensboro 47.792
Dunkel Line: Wofford by 4 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Wofford by 1 1/2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wofford (-1 1/2); Over

Marc Lawrence

San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers

This is the eighth stop in a nine-game road trip for the road weary Spurs, who were in Utah last night. And along the way this game figures to be a thorn in their sides. You can bet that the Blazers have had this one circled since they were dry cleaned in San Antonio, 99-83, just over five weeks ago. In addition, past results haven?t been very promising in the Rose Garden for the Spurs of late as theyve dropped seven of eight on both the SU and ATS scorecards. Solid history, indeed, but the clincher in this one comes from the fact that the Spurs are just 3-11 ATS on the road after jostling with the Jazz. In addition, the Trail Blazers are a relentless 9-1 SU and ATS in their last ten games at home against unrested opposition. You know what to do here. We recommend a 1-unit play on Portland.

Hollywood Sports

Kings at Coyotes
Play: Under

Phoenix (29-21-3-6) has won two games in a row after their 2-1 win in overtime versus Dallas on Saturday. The Coyotes have played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing two goals or less in their last contest. Phoenix has also played 5 straight home games Under the Total as a favorite. Los Angeles (27-21-5-6) has suffered two straight 1-0 losses after falling to Calgary on Saturday. The Coyotes have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams that did not manage to score more than two goals in their last game. The Kings have seen the Under go 17-5-7 in their last 29 games when facing a team that held their last opponent to under three goals in their last game. Los Angeles has seen the Under go 6-1-1 in their last 8 road games Under the Total as a small underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. And in their last 11 games against fellow Pacific Division opponents, the Kings have seen the Under go 7-3-1. With the Total set at 5, there is a very good chance that this game will finish Under the Total or at least as a push which still makes the Under a solid proposition.

Rob Vinciletti

Michigan vs. Northwestern
Play: Michigan +2

Michigan has some solid angles in their favor tonight. They are 8-3 after allowing 60 or less and have won 12 of the last 18 vs winning teams. As an underdog they are 28-11 to the spread and 27-13 ats when the total is 120 to 130. In games after scoring 60 or less they are 7-1 straight up. Northwestern is 0-3 straight up as a home favorite of 3 or less and 1-5 in their last 6 vs teams who allow 65 or less points. The Wildcats are just 2-6 vs teams ranked in the top RPI this season. With Michigan 4-1 in February we will look their way tonight. Take Michigan.

David Chan

Philadelphia @ Winnipeg
PICK: Over 5.5
Offered at: 5.5 TopBet

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak above the posted number.

Ilya Bryzgalov is set to battle Ondrej Pavelec between the pipes.

The Flyers are 32-19-7 and are coming off a 6-4 loss to the Penguins on Saturday.

Jaromir Jagr had two goals against his former team.

Bryzgalov continues to struggle and was benched after giving up three-goals on 13-shots.

“It’s easy to find a scapegoat, to put at one guy,” Bryzgalov said. “I was frustrated with my game."

The Jets are 29-26-6 and are coming off a 5-1 win over the Avs on Sunday.

Bryan Little had two goals; Andrew Ladd had a goal and two assists; Blake Wheeler had four assists:

“I think our whole line is playing really well,” Wheeler said. “When we were put together after the All-Star break, we made a conscious effort to make this thing work similar to how we did last year in Atlanta.”

“It’s nice to finally see us put a few pucks in the net and get confidence,” Ladd said. “It’s going to be such a big thing going forward here. The power play has to be here and hasn’t been.”

“The third I thought we played real well,” Jets coach Claude Noel said. “We got some good performances from a lot of guys and our power play came to life, which was good.”

It may come as a surprise to learn that Philadelphia is just 1-9 SU in this series, including losing all three games this year between the teams.

Winnipeg won 9-8 on October 27th in Philadelphia; it then won 6-4 in front of the home town crowd on November 19th; Winnipeg won again in Philadelphia 2-1 on January 31st.

The O/U is 7-3 in this span.

You may want to consider a second look at the over in this one!

Jim Feist

New Mexico vs Colorado State
Pick: Colorado State

New Mexico is red hot, but off an emotional home game over UNLV, a chest thumping 65-45 win. They were upset the UNLV was getting all the publicity as the powerhouse team in the Mountain West and made a statement. It was their second straight win over a Top20 team. Now they head out on the road into the thin Colorado mountain air. The CSU Rams shoot 48% as a team, 23rd in the nation, and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Play Colorado State!

Sean Murphy

Philadelphia @ Memphis
PICK: Memphis +1

We cashed a ticket by fading the 76ers against the T'Wolves (albeit by the skin of our teeth) on Sunday night, and we'll go right back to the well on Tuesday.

Philadelphia is in a bit of a free-fall right now, having dropped three in a row and five of its last seven games overall.

Perhaps that shouldn't come as much of a surprise, as the young 76ers had gotten off to a tremendous start to the season, and were certainly due for some regression.

Even their two most recent wins have been rather un-impressive; on the road against the Cavs and Bobcats, two of the Eastern Conference's weakest teams.

While Philadelphia still owns a solid 18-13-1 ATS record this season, it has posted an ugly 8-11 ATS mark since January 18th (interestingly enough, we successfully faded them against Denver on that night).

The Grizzlies haven't exactly been playing their best basketball lately, but they've still managed to win four of their last five games, with their only loss over that stretch coming by a narrow 97-93 margin in Houston last night.

I really like the way the Grizz are playing offensively right now, having scored 99.6 points per game on 48.6% shooting over their last five contests. The emergence of Marreese Speights has been key, as he's been picking up the slack in the absence of Zach Randolph, averaging 15 points and 10.8 rebounds over his last four games.

Keep in mind, Speights should be highly-motivated for tonight's contest against his former team.

Memphis owns a solid 12-5 SU record here at home this season, and that's all we're really concerned with given the fact the Grizz have been given the underdog tag tonight (at the time of posting at least).

The Grizzlies won both meetings with the 76ers last season, and have been favored by at least three points in their last two home matchups in this series. By my estimation, tonight's line is a little out of whack given Philadelphia's recent struggles.

NHL Predictions

Winnipeg Jets +106

The Flyers are coming off a 6-4 loss at home on Saturday afternoon against the Penguins, which was their 3rd loss in 4 games and their 6th loss in their last 8 games. The Flyers are still having goalie problems, averaging 4 goals against over their last 5 games and close to 3 on the season. Philadelphia is 18-9-2 on the road this season. Winnipeg is in the middle of a home stand, and have won three straight games coming into tonight - @Minnesota and then at home versus Boston and Colorado where they've looked impressive. The Jets are 18-9-2 on home ice, and are chasing a playoff spot with their 29-26-6 record. These two teams have met 3 times this season, with the Jets taking all three games. Winnipeg won both meetings in Philadelphia and beat the Flyers 6-4 at home back in November. The Jets are the hotter team right now, love playing at home, are getting better goaltending, and have dominated h2h vs Philly. I don't understand why they are underdogs here and I will take the Jets.

Phoenix Coyotes -120

Kings / Coyotes Under 5

The Kings have lost 6 of their last 8 games, including their past two where they have been shutout by Calgary and Phoenix. The Kings are now 27-21-11 on the season and 12-8-7 on the road. Los Angeles is averaging just 2.03 goals per game this season, but are lucky to have Quick in net who has helped the team allow just 2.03 goals against per game as well. Over their last 5 games the Kings are averaging just 1.20 goals per game. The Coyotes are making a push here down the stretch, winning two straight games and 7 of their last 8. A lot of the winning lately has come from Mike Smith playing solid and the team overall defensively allowing just 0.60 goals against per game over the past 5. They are scoring just 1.80 goals per game during that span. On the season Phoenix is scoring just 2.54 goals per game and allowing 2.39 against. These two teams have met 5 times this season with Los Angeles winning 3 of the 5, but Phoenix winning the latest on Thursday in LA. During those 5 games we have seen totals of (starting with the most recent) 1, 1, 7, 5, and 2. The UNDER is 34-11-12 in the Kings last 57 overall, and 7-3-1 in their last 11 divisional games. The UNDER is 7-0 in the Coyotes last 7 overall, and 4-1 in their last 5 divisional games. The Coyotes have the edge tonight at home as they are playing better hockey and the Kings who can't score should struggle again tonight versus Mike Smith. Take the UNDER and the Coyotes each for a unit.

Calgary Flames -½ -111

The Oilers have dropped three straight and 4 of their last 5 games, which included three straight home games. Edmonton is now 22-30-6 on the season and just 7-20-2 on the road. They are averaging just 2.34 goals per game on the road, while giving up 3.28 against. Calgary is coming off a big win in Los Angeles on Saturday night, and have now won 3 of their last 4 and 3 straight at home (Chicago, Vancouver, Toronto). The Flames are 28-22-9 on the season and a solid 16-8- at home where they are allowing just 2.19 goals against per game. Calgary has absolutely owned this head to head series in recent years. The Flames have won all 4 meetings this season, and 9 straight overall dating back to last season. 7 of those 9 straight wins versus the Oilers have been in regulation time, with 5 of those 7 being by 2 goals or more. Take note that the Flames are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a home favorite, and 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Calgary is playing much better right now, Edmonton struggles on the road, the Flames own this h2h, and Kiprusoff is playing great. The Flames win this one, and because I don't want to lay that much chalk I am going to take them to get things done in regulation (14 of their 16 home wins have come in regulation).

SPORTS WAGERS

Los Angeles +102 over PHOENIX

The Coyotes have picked up points in eight straight, including wins over Anaheim, Detroit, San Jose, Chicago and more recently a 1-0 win over these same Kings in L.A. Phoenix is a prime example of what hard work and sticking to your system can do for slightly better than average teams. The Coyotes have decent talent up front while defensively, Keith Yandle might be the NHL's best kept secret. If Yandle played in a different market, he would have star status. Still, Phoenix has scored just four goals in its last three games. Four of its last five games have been decided by a single goal. Tight games are more the rule than the exception and as a team, they are a better pooch than a favorite. For L.A., being on the road is probably a good thing. They're coming off a difficult pair of 1-0 losses at home. Goaltending is not their issue. If they can pop two or three in a game, they stand a good chance of winning. These two have played five times this season and the Kings have gone 3-2 with two of those games going into OT. They're neck and neck in the standings and with two crucial points up for grabs, the tag makes the Kings the prudent choice against a team they have confidence against. Play: Los Angeles +102 (Risking 2 units).

NASHVILLE +107 over Vancouver

The Canucks’ stock is soaring, especially after a weekend in which they blew out both Toronto and Edmonton by scores of 6-2 and 5-2 respectively. The Predators are not defensively sloppy like the Leafs or Oilers. Nashville is sound in all areas. Two weeks ago they went into Vancouver and lost 4-3 in OT. This past Friday they were a shot away from ending the Red Wings home winning streak in a game that was decided with just five seconds remaining in regulation. The Preds have recent wins over St. Louis and Chicago, not once but three times. Additionally, the Preds are 18-7-4 at home and offer up great value as a dog in their own building. These two are rivals. They met in last year's playoffs and they see one another often. In other words, playing in or against Nashville is nothing new for the Canucks. We mention this because Vancouver plays in Detroit on Thursday and that's Detroit’s next home game. No doubt, Vancouver is looking forward to that game with a chance to do something that no other team has since November 3. With that one on deck and after two easy wins, this one has trouble written all over it for the visiting Canucks. Play: Nashville +107 (Risking 2 units).

New Jersey -106 over TORONTO

The Devils remain one of the hottest and most undervalued teams in the league. We've been saying all season that this team should have the same elite status as any, yet they don't. All they've done is pick up points in 10 of their last 11 games to tie Boston for second place in the conference. They can adapt to the flow of a game allowing them to win low scoring or shootout contests. The Leafs are feeling the pressure of a playoff race in a hot market. They return home from that difficult Western Canada three-game trip in which they surrendered 14 goals. If the Leafs miss the playoffs, you can blame coach Ron Wilson for trying to make James Reimer the #1 goaltender when Jonas Gustavsson was clearly the better option. Reimer was a four-month flash in the pan a season ago. He was a backup goaltender in the minors. For some strange reason, Wilson has leaned heavily on him instead of going with a hot Gustavsson. Perhaps the light has gone on as The Monster is the confirmed starter tonight as he attempts to clean Wilson's mess. No matter who is between the pipes right now, the Leafs are a fragile team that has just one win in OT against the Oilers in their past six games. Asking them to beat the Devils under these circumstances is an order the Buds are unlikely to fill right now. Play: New Jersey -106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

Fairway Jay

New Mexico at Colorado State
Play: Colorado State +6

Following a pair of convincing redemption wins over San Diego State and UNLV, the New Mexico Lobos (22-4) have taken control of the Mountain West Conference at 8-2. They hold a two-game lead over SDSU and UNLV, and tonight’s contest is their toughest remaining conference game. Tough to step in front of the red hot Lobos when they are playing so well: 7-0 SU and ATS run with every win by at least 10 points.

Consider that the Lobos are winning with a dominating defense that has held six opponents to 54 or fewer points the last seven games. They also lead the league in rebounding margin which gives them a sound formula for success. The league’s top two FG shooters are on the Lobos with their inside/outside combination of Drew Gordon (52%) and Kendal Williams (53%). Gordon also leads the league in rebounding at over 11 per game. Add in the top field goal and 3-point shooting team and 3-point shooting defense and you can see why the Lobos are on their way to a Mountain West Conference regular season title.

Stats aside, tonight’s game is about potential letdown and redemption, as Colorado State is sure to bring its best following an embarrassing loss to New Mexico three weeks ago at The Pit, 85-52. The Rams are No. 2 in the league in rebounding margin and have taken the fewest 3-point shots in the league but rank top-10 in the nation in 3-point efficiency. Head coach Tim Miles has his team playing their best ball at Moby Arena where the Rams are 12-1. New Mexico is also in a tough technical situation as Colorado State has covered each of the last three seasons in the rematch vs. New Mexico after losing the first game. With a letdown looming and a big effort expected by the home team, we’ll take a little shot and ride the Rams in redemption in a likely lower scoring game.

Vegas Experts

Illinois at Ohio State
Play: Ohio State

The visiting Illini are in big trouble right now w/ five straight losses, all non-covers. Head coach Bruce Weber is fighting for his job and his team will be fighting for their lives tonight in hostile territory against a revenge-minded Ohio State team. Not only did the Buckeyes lose the first meeting with the Illini, 79-74, but they also lost their last game (to rival Michigan) on Saturday. Ohio St is 20-7 ATS when playing with revenge for a SU loss as chalk and 8-2 ATS when laying double digits at home. This one gets ugly.

WUNDERDOG

New York at Buffalo
Pick: Under 5.5

The Islanders got smacked around pretty good at Ottawa yesterday afternoon falling 6-0 to the Senators. The zero is the trouble spot here as New York has managed to put the puck in the net just 19 times in their last 10 games at less than 2 per outing. While the Sabres have had their moments on offense, the reality is that this team is a lot more likely to throw-up an offensive stinker, than to experience one of those great offensive moments. Buffalo has scored 2 goals or less in 16 of their last 24 or 2/3 of the time. Buffalo is also 9-4-1 to the UNDER when facing an opponent off of scoring 2 goals or less in their last game, while New York is 9-3 in their last 12 as a dog. Play this one UNDER the total.

Teddy Covers

Kansas State at Missouri
Play: Kansas State +9

When Kansas State and Missouri met last month in Manhattan, the Wildcats were able to take away one of the Tigers’ biggest strengths by avoiding turnovers that would have inevitably lead to fast break buckets the other way. K-State was also able to dominate the glass, with a 36-22 rebounding edge. The result was a 75-59 KSU win as a one-point underdog; an easy “right side” cash for anyone who supported Frank Martin’s squad.

In the rematch tonight, the Wildcats are nine-point underdogs. Yes, Missouri is in revenge from that earlier defeat. And yes, Missouri is a perfect 16-0 in Columbia this year, cashing pointspread at a 70% clip on their home floor. That still doesn’t mean that the Tigers are likely to win this game by a double-digit margin. Let’s not forget that if the Tigers don’t force turnovers, their half court defense is spotty at best, in sharp contrast to K-State’s rock solid defensive approach.

Kansas State is a mentally and physically tough team. When they lose, they don’t lose by margin very often. Losses in Big XII play include a six-point defeat against Kansas, a two-point loss at Iowa State, a three-point loss to Oklahoma and a two-point loss to Baylor. On the highway, we’ve seen this team win at Baylor, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, while losing by only two at Iowa State; repeatedly hanging tough in hostile environments. Expect more of the same tonight.

Steve Janus

Northwestern -2

I look for Michigan to struggle on the road tonight after that huge win over Ohio State at home on Saturday. It's extremely hard to win on the road in the Big Ten, and even harder coming off such an emotional game. Not to mention Northwestern is a lot better than they get credit for.

The Wildcats nearly upset Michigan on the road earlier this season, falling 64-66 as 7-point underdogs. That's pretty impressive considering they are just 5-7 on the road this season. Northwestern is 11-3 at home with that huge win over Michigan State back in the middle of January. Michigan is simply not the same team on the road. They are just 5-7 away from home with losses to the likes of Iowa and Arkansas.

Northwestern 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, while Michigan is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.