Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Philadelphia 76ers -1
The 76ers, which should benefit from a day of rest, will no doubt be focused this evening as they try to end a 3-game skid. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, enjoy no such luxury having just played in Houston last night.
History is certainly on our side here considering plays against home underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games and are playing the second of a back-to-back are 58-28 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by an average of 6.2 points.
Also, Memphis is just 1-8 ATS when checking in off a road loss this season.
Bouncing back from tough defeats hasn't been an issue for the 76ers since Doug Collins took over. The Sixers, which lost by 1 point Sunday, are 18-6 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less under Collins. They have won by an average score of 95.3 to 89.0 in this situation. Take Philly.
Jack Jones
Miami Heat -13½
The Miami Heat are playing their best basketball of the season right now. I'll continue to ride them to a blowout home victory over the Sacramento Kings tonight. This is a big line, but nothing the Heat can't handle Tuesday.
Miami is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall to climb to 25-7 on the season. The Heat have won all six games by 12 points or more, and by an average of 17.7 points/game. What's most impressive about this run is that five of those six contests were on the road.
Sacramento has been a lousy road team all year. The Kings are just 3-16 away from home this season, getting outscored by 11.7 points/game. The Heat are 13-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.5 points/game. I see Miami having no problem beating one of the worst teams in the league by 14-plus tonight.
The Kings are 4-20 ATS in their last 24 road games after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less. Miami is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with Sacramento, winning each of the last three meetings by 20 points or more. The Kings are 2-19 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including 0-10 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Miami. Bet the Heat Tuesday.
Lenny Del Genio
Pistons at Cavaliers
Prediction: Under
The Cavs have gone Under in seven of their previous eight games. They have shot sub-40% each of their previous two games, but were fortunate to hold Sacramento to 37.5% Sunday. The Pistons are holding foes to just 91.7 PPG during the last nine games (8-1 ATS) and shot just 37% against Boston Sunday.
SPORTS WAGERS
PORTLAND -4 over San Antonio
The Spurs were involved in a close one last night in Utah. It was tight throughout and came right down to the wire. Prior to that one, San Antonio won in OT against the Clippers. They've been involved in four close games in a row. They've also played six road games in a row and this is their seventh. In summarizing, the Spurs have gone from Toronto to Los Angeles to Utah and now to Portland. That's four different time zones in four successive games. It's also the Spurs third game in four days and fifth in seven. They'll play this one with no sense of urgency whatsoever but they'll play it as a tired and rather satisfied group. That opens the door for a solid Blazers team to take advantage of. Portland will ruin any team that comes into the Rose Garden not ready to play at full speed. They also owe the Spurs one from a 16-point loss they took in San Antonio in mid January. The Trail Blazers have won 12 of 17 home games and after losing to the Lakers last night in a game they trailed by 30 at one point, they won't be in any kind of gracious mood tonight. Play: Portland -4 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
David Banks
Michigan / Northwestern Under
The Michigan Wolverines (20-7, 14-9-1 ATS) will attempt to improve upon their chances of winning the Big Ten while the Northwestern Wildcats (16-10, 11-10 ATS) will be looking to inch closer to a .500 mark in conference play when the rivals square off on the hardwood Tuesday night; The Big Ten Network will carry the live telecast starting at 8:00 ET.
Though BracketBuster weekend just concluded and a number of smaller programs improved their chances of qualifying for the Big Dance, the Michigan Wolverines might have earned the biggest win of the weekend on Saturday night when they toppled the Ohio State Buckeyes on their own court. The 56-51 final tally saw the Wolverines win outright as five-point underdogs nearly three weeks after getting blitzed by 15 in Columbus. The win improved Head Coach John Beileins kids to 10-4 SU in conference play, and they now only trail the in-state rival Michigan State Spartans by one-game heading into tonights road clash with the Wildcats. Strong defense and opportunistic offense has been the key to the Wolverines success this season, as theyve allowed an average of just 60.1 PPG (#26) while shooting 46.1 percent from the floor (#69) themselves. U of M has however struggled mightily on the Big Ten road winning just two of their six games played outright while going 3-3 versus the oddsmakers.
Never in the history of the Northwestern program have the Wildcats qualified for the NCAA Tournament. Theyve come close each of the last few seasons, so it comes as no surprise to find Head Coach Bill Carmodys outfit sitting squarely on the bubble. John Shurna and his mates snapped a two-game losing streak most recently by winning and covering at home against the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Saturday. The win was the teams 16th of the season and also moved them to two-games under .500 in Big Ten Play (6-8 SU). Tonights match-up marks the first of two remaining home games left to go for the Wildcats who will venture away from Evanston to take on Penn State before returning home to battle Ohio State and then close the regular season up at Iowa in early March. While UNW has only amassed two wins in seven tries as a visitor, its taken care of business at Welsh-Ryan Arena where it will carry 11-3 SU & 5-4 ATS records with it into tonights tussle.
Michigan pulled out a 66-64 overtime win at home in these rivals first meeting of the season, but the Wildcats covered the closing seven-point spread to move to 4-1 ATS in the L/5 overall meetings. The Wolverines have gone a moneymaking 21-6 ATS versus their L/27 Big Ten opponents, but have only managed a 1-3-1 ATS tally the L/5 times they hit the road to battle a +.600 home team. Northwesterns 5-1 ATS in its L/6 in conference and has covered four of its L/5 at home, but has gone just 2-6 ATS when playing off its L/8 outright wins. The under is 3-2 in these teams L/5 overall meetings regardless of venue.
Dave Price
1 Unit Northwestern -2
Expect a letdown from Michigan following Saturday's big upset win over Ohio State. The Wolverines only defeated the Wildcats by 2 points last month and haven't been able to beat them on the road the last 2 years. Northwestern won its 2010 home meeting by 15 and its 2011 home meeting by 14. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups in this series.
Black Widow
1* Missouri Tigers -9
The Missouri Tigers are one of the best teams in the country. This is a squad that is primed to win the Big 12 and earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They must win tonight to set up a showdown with Kansas this coming Saturday which will likely decide the Big 12 regular season champion. There's no question that they want revenge on Kansas State after the Wildcats handed them one of their two losses on the season. Oklahoma State was the other team to beat the Tigers, and they came back to revenge that loss 83-65 as a 16-point favorite at home. The Tigers are 15-0 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 23.0 points/game. I like their chances of beating the Wildcats by double-digits tonight while playing with revenge in mind. Missouri is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. Kansas State is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons. Take Missouri and lay the points.
Larry Ness
Colorado St. +6
New Mexico had quite a week, led by Drew Gooden. The Lobos made it SEVEN wins in a row by winning at San Diego St and then crushing UNLV at home, to take a two-game lead over both schools in the MW, entering the top-25 for the first time TY on Monday (at No. 18). As for Gooden (12.7-11.1), he had 17 & 17 vs San Diego St and 27 & 20 vs UNLV. He's joined up front by the 6-8 Hardeman (4.4-3.7) with a trio of guards also in the starting lineup. The group includes Williams (12.3-3.4-4.1), Snell (11.8) and Greenwood (5.7-3.3). Key reserves are guards Fenton (7.3) and Walker (6.7) plus the 6-9 Bairstow (3.36-3.6) up front. The Rams are 16-9 (5-5 in MWC play) and were non-competitive when these teams met in Albuquerque back on Jan 25, 85-52. However, the Lobos can't take CSU lightly here in Fort Collins, where the Rams haven't lost since Nov 19 (just the 4th game of the season), 79-58 vs Southern Miss. That contest was clearly atypical for the rams at home, as they've won 11 straight at home since that loss, entering this game 12-1 SU at home on the season. That includes wins over 18-8 Colorado, 20-8 Denver, 20-6 San Diego St and 18-8 Wyoming. The Cowboys start three guards in Eikmeier (16.2), Green (13.0) and Sabas (5.0), along with the 6-6 Smith (9.7-5.1) and the 6-5 Hornung (8.3-8.2), who is probably the team's second-most effective player next to Eikmeier. Beating New Mexico will be no easy task, as the Lobos have won their last seven contests by an average of 20.7 PPG, holding opponents to an average of 49.4 points on 34.2 percent shooting (25.7% on threes). However, the Lobos are in a 'flat' spot in this one (off wins at SDSU and home to UNLV) plus the rams ended San Diego St's 11-game winning streak back on Jan 28 here in Fort Collins 77-60. That win marked the school's first win vs a ranked opponent at home since the 2003-04 season. Make that two such wins after tonight. Take the home dog.
Red Dog Sports
NC State +3.5 (1st half)
UNC matches up well vs. NC State. UNC won at home vs. the Wolfpack earlier by 19 points. NCSU lost their last road game at Duke after leading 46-30 at the half. Then in their last home game, they lost to Florida State after falling behind 37-26 at the half. NCSU's record is 18-9 overall and 12-5 at home.
They have 5 players (Leslie, Wood, Brown, Williams and Howell) who average between 11 and 13 ppg. Painter and Johnson come off the bench but they are not a deep team. They have to deal with John Henson's length inside and Scott Wood has struggled against UNC. Roy Williams has lost just once against NCSU since he took over as head coach. NCSU doesn't have any signature wins as they lost to Syracuse and Indiana at home.
UNC has played 5 ACC road games. Let's look at the halftime scores:
at Miami (down 35-30)
at Md (down 40-37)
at WF (led 36-24)
at VT (down 39-34)
at FSU (down 36-28)
The Tar Heels lost the FSU game but came back and won the others that they were down and won rather easily. UNC is not deep as they are without Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland, who are probably their 5th and 6th best players. The Tar Heels don't shoot 3's well and they don't shoot free throws well. They do have a smart point guard named Kendall Marshall who can pass the ball well. He has senior Tyler Zeller inside as well as John Henson and Harrison Barnes. All four are candidates for all-ACC picks.
Let's look at the last two played in Raleigh:
2011 UNC led 31-29
2010 UNC led 37-33
UNC will use Stillman White, McAdoo and Hubert some in the first half and none of them have ever played at the RBC Center. NC State will have a celebration (why not a parade?) for the 1989 team at the game. Chris Corchianni and Tom Gugliatta will be at the game and it should be an emotional lift for the Pack. All we need is for NC State to be within 3 points at the half.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Georgetown -1.5 over SETON HALL: Been having great luck with totals of late, but I really like this one tonight. In watching Georgetown play down the stretch I expect this team to make a deep serious run in the Big Dance. They are well coached, very athletic and play excellent defense. All good ingredients for a run at the National Title. The Hoyas have lost 2 of their last 3 road games, but one was in OT to a highly ranked Syracuse squad and the other was in Pitt when the Panthers started to play well again. Despite the OT game the Hoyas still come in allowing just 53.4 ppg on a mere 32.5% shooting in their last 5 games. Now that is playing some defense. For the year the Hoya's are 14th in points allowed (58.7 ppg) and 11th in FG% defense (38.4%). The Hall has won their last 2 at home, but they are a team that has been having problems scoring of late. They did put up 94 points vs St John's recently, but still in their last 8 games they have failed to hit 60 points in 6 of those games, while averaging just 60.3 ppg over that stretch. I don't expect them to have a really good showing vs this Hoya's bunch tonight. Defensively the Hall has been pretty solid, but they have stil allowed 63 ppg in their last 5 games, which is 10 ppg more than the Hoyas have allowed during that stretch. The Offenses are pretty even across the board, but the Hoyas get a Big edge on defense and I feel that they may need this one just a bit more. Oh those last 2 home wins for the hall were vs a struggling Pitt squad and St John's, while their previous 2 home games were both losses to Louisville and Notre Dame and the Hall scored just 93 points in the 2 games. Hoyas get the call here with a rather easy win.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Kansas State/ Missouri Under 138: The Wildcats have had some real problems scoring of late as they come in averaging just 60.6 ppg in their last 5 games and 55 ppg in their last 2 games, but one thing they have done well of late is defend. The Cats come in allowing just 57.8 ,ppg on 38.9% shooting in their last 5 games, while they have allowed just 61.6 ppg in their last 5 on the road. The Tigers have seem to straighten out their defensive problems of late. Back in January the Tigers allowed 88 and 79 points to Baylor and Oklahoma State in BB games, but since then they have camped down, allowing just 62.7 ppg over their next 7 games. At home the Tigers have allowed just 60.6 ppg on 42.4% shooting, while in their Big 12 home games they have allowed just 59.4 ppg. This team plays excellent defense at home and that should help keep the Cats weak attack in the 50's here. Missouri has averaged 82.4 ppg overall at home, but in their last 5 Big 12 home games they have averaged just 72.4 ppg and KSU has been playing very good defense away from home of late. Even if the Tigers hit 75 points in this one (I don't think they will), I just can't see the Cats putting more than 60 points on the board here. I expect a game in the low 130's here. KEY TRENDS--- KANSAS ST is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots over the last 2 seasons, while MISSOURI is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points since 1997.
Kent State -2.5 over MIAMI-OH: Miami Took a tough home loss to Tennessee State in their bracketbuster game, while Kent State did the same to Charlotte, but now we are back in the MAC here the teams are headed in opposite directions. The Golden Flashes come with a 9-3 conference mark, including winning their last 7 MAC and by an average of 13.1 ppg to boot. This team is rolling right, while the Redhawks are not. Miami comes in with a 4-8 MAC record, including just 3 and 6 in their last 9 inside the MAC. Miami has had problems scoring as they have averaged 61.2 ppg in the MAC, while the Golden Flashes have averaged 74.5 ppg in their MAC. Miami has played better defense than KSU (62.8 ppg to 68.8 PPG in MAC games), but they just don't have nearly enough offense to stay in this one vs a KSU team that needs this game much more. Miami is 6-6 at home overall, but KSU has played well on the road (7-4) and will take this one by pulling away late.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Michigan/ Northwestern Under 127: Michigan does not like the uptempo game at all as they rely on working the shot clock down to get the best shot possible and then turn the rest of the game over to their solid defensive play. In their last 9 games the most points scored was 131 points and those games have averaged 120 ppg. On the road this year Michigan games have aveaged just 125.6 ppg, while their last 3 Big 10 road games have averaged just 113 ppg. Michigan has struggled to score on nthe road this year as they have averaged just 60.4 ppg away from home and it helps know that the Cats have played great defense at home, allowing just 60.9 ppg. The Cats can score as they have ac=verage 70.4 ppg at home, but alot of their offense comes from the 3 ball and Michigan has clamped down on the long range defense allowing teams to hit just 28.4% in their last 5 games. Despite the fact that the Cats can score I just don't see them getting too much off of this very tough Michigan team, while the Wolverines will also struggle to score vs a Cats team that plays very good defense at home. This game should hit about 120 at best. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Under - Road teams where the total is 129.5 or less (MICHIGAN) - off an upset win as a home underdog against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more. This play is 28-6 since 1997.
Virginia/ Virginia Tech over 114: This game has the smell of OT on it. Well maybe not but I do see it going into the 120's. In their last home game Va Tech went to OT with Georgia Tech, but still 130 points were scored in regulation in the game. Now lets look at their home games as a hole. TGhe lowest scoring home game Va Tech has had was 117 points and that was in their opener. Hokie home games have averaged 134.4 ppg on the year, while their ACC home games have averaged 133.3 pp, with lowest ACC home game putting up just 122 points (FSU). Virginia has not been involved in many games that high, but still their road games have averaged 120.1 ppg. The Cavs have allowed just 58.9 ppg on the road, but in their last 4 on the road they have allowed 62 ppg and that give a Hokie team that averages 71.4 ppg at home an excellent shot at hitting 60+ points in this one. I also see a Cavs team, that averages 61.2 ppg on the road, having an excellent shot at notching 60+ points vs a Hokie Squad that allows 63.3 ppg at home. This game should be close so FT's at the end could aid us as well. I expect somewhere in the mid 120's in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
MISSISSIPPI STATE +9 over Kentucky: Google News Play. Ok this is just too high a number even for the powerful Cats to cove here. MSU is no slouch, especially at home where they have gone 15-2 on the year, including 5-1 in SEC home games. The Cats have won all 6 of their SEC road games and are 4-2 ATS in those games, but they can struggle away winning by just 6 at Vanderbilt and 3 at Tennessee, while being in a dogfight vs both Georgia and Auburn before pulling away late. With the Exception of maybe Vanderbilt, the Bulldogs are much better than the other teams listed. Very hard for a team to go through the season undefeated and while I do not expect an outright win by the Bulldogs here, I feel that on National Tv they will have a very good game and keep this one close. Cats by no more than 6 here.
Clemson -4 over GEORGIA TECH: Tech is reeling as they have just 1 win in their last 10 games and that was a 4 point home win over lowly Boston College. Clemson has lost 4 of their last 6 games, but they still come in in better shape having won 2 of their last 3 and would like to continue to build momentum for the post season. Tech is just out matched in this one.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Miami/ Maryland Over 140.5: MIAMI is 8-1 OVER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons, while MARYLAND is 26-11 OVER in home games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game since 1997.
New Mexico/ Colorado State Over 136: NEW MEXICO is 9-2 OVER in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons, while COLORADO ST is 21-6 OVER in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent since 1997.
Accuscore - NBA
Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat: Under 202.5
I like this pick because of the Kings. Miami can score with the best of them and is averaging 103.3 points per game. I have no doubts that the Heat will break the 100 point barrier in a win tonight. The issue is Sacramento, which averages a lowly 93.1 points per game. I don’t think the inexperienced Kings have the firepower or the poise to drop 100 points against a swarming Heat defense on the road. The under pick has an AccuScore probability of 58.3 percent.
Portland Trail Blazers (-4) vs. San Antonio Spurs
This is certainly not the obvious pick as I’m sure most people are going to go with the scorching Spurs that have won 11 straight games. I know I said the Blazers looked bad last night against the Lakers, but that was a road game. Portland is a completely different team in front of its crazed fans. The Blazers are 12-5 at home with a point differential of 11.1 points. I think the Spurs’ winning streak will come to an end as the Blazers bounce back from a bad loss.
Accuscore
Detroit Red Wings
This game with definitely be a close one. The money line essentially has it being a toss-up, although with a slight edge to Detroit. AccuScore’s forecast gives the Red Wings slightly better odds with a forecasted winning percentage of 54.8. The Blackhawks have been solid at home, averaging around 3.4 goals per game, and the Red Wings have been average on the road. Even with that in mind, I like the Red Wing’s defense and the team on a six game winning streak.
Phoenix Coyotes
This game will be a battle of goaltenders. The Kings’ Jonathan Quick has been magnificent all year, allowing just 1.87 goals per game with a save percentage of .934. The Coyotes’ Mike Smith hasn’t been that ridiculously impressive (2.25 goals against and .928 save percentage), but he is unbeaten in his last seven starts and has allowed just .99 goals per game. The difference maker in this game will be offense. The Kings are last in average goals per game at 2.03, and have failed to give Quick the support he deserves on numerous occasions. I think that will be the case tonight.
Accuscore
North Carolina -6.5
The Wolf Pack has struggled recently with their last “good win” coming a month ago at Miami. Since then they have lost to Virginia and Duke and been blown out by North Carolina and Florida State. The Tar Heels have adjusted to the loss of Dexter Strickland, and would be riding a 9-game winning streak if not for Austin Rivers. As it is, they have won their last eight games by an average of 14.75 points.
New Mexico -6
The computer is consistently underrating the Lobos going only 5-16 ATS in their games this season. Because of that I’m going to fade the computer results that have New Mexico favored by just two on the road at a mediocre Colorado State team. With a two game lead over both SDSU and UNLV, a win here would almost lock up the Mountain West regular season title for New Mexico.
Creighton vs. Evansville Under 150.5
The under comes through in 55.5 percent of simulations with the average total being 146 points. The computer record for both teams has been positive this season.
Andre Gomes
76ers / Grizzlies Under 181.5
Yesterday's game between Memphis and Houston had a really fun first half. Both teams were scoring in transition, the referees were having a tight criteria and Houston got a good number of free throw attempts. Then, in the second half, the game was much more physical and both teams struggled to score. In this particular case, Memphis had good offensive numbers for their style: 15 fast break points with 7-10 FG in transition and especially 58 points in the paint, with 23-31 FG at the rim. Memphis had their starters with big minutes as usual, with Conley 40 minutes, Marc 38 minutes and Gay 41 minutes! For tonight, the Grizzlies offense should expct some problems in the perimeter, as the Sixers are an excellent perimeter defense, so Conley, Allen and Gay should struggle offensively tonight.
With Brand out of tonight's game, Memphis will have an inside edge with Gasol and this is in fact the only clear edge of this game. Philadelphia will lack any kind of interior game without Brand, as in their last games they had 7-8 FG, 15-28 FG, 12-19 FG, 8-17 FG, 13-21 FG and 17-26 at the rim, with either low volume or bad shooting percentage. Memphis has a good defense in terms of pressure and they will create problems to the Sixers' outside game. So, both teams should struggle to have decent offensive outcomes tonight. Memphis had a nice transition game against the Rockets, but the Sixers defense is #4 in transition defense by allowing 1.04 PPP. With both teams likely to struggle on offense tonight, I'll be taking the under in here.