Dave Price
1 Unit on Warriors/Rockets OVER 218
The Over is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston. The Over is 8-2 in the Rockets' last 10 overall, 8-0 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game, and 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll bet the Over for 1 Unit tonight.
Black Widow
1* on Oklahoma City Thunder -1
The Thunder have won 5 of their last 7 at home, including back-to-back home wins over the Nuggets and Warriors in dominant fashion. Atlanta has lost back-to-back road games and they were ugly at that, losing by 15 at San Antonio and by 18 at Orlando. OKC is a superb 16-2 ATS (+13.8 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. The Thunder are 15-6 ATS in non-conference games this season, owning the East. This team is no pushover this season and at 26-21, the Thunder are in the playoffs if the season were to end today. Take Oklahoma City and lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Seton Hall/VILLANOVA over 166½
It’s mighty impressive for a team to play at a high tempo and not sacrifice offensive efficiency as the Villanova Wildcats do. Common sense dictates that the more shots a team shoots the less accurate they become but that’s not the case with this Villanova team. Despite playing at a blistering tempo, Villanova still manages to shoot 38.6% on threes and 51.1% on two’s and has one of the highest free throw percentages rate in the nation at 75.5%. They rank first in the Big East and third nationally in offensive efficiency and playing at home against a pretty good Seton Hall team Villanova can and will dictate the pace of this game. Seton Hall is ranked 19th nationally in offensive efficiency and almost never turns the ball, giving it away on a miniscule 14% of their possessions. They have a potential first round NBA prospect in Jeremy Hazell who I have already written about in this space and have the horses to trade baskets with an elite Villanova team. This wager is all about two teams with very good offenses matching up at the right venue. I’m a big believer that the home team dictates the tempo and with the success Villanova has had this season there’s no reason to expect a change tonight. Expect a high scoring affair between two of the best offenses in the Big East. Play: #521 Seton Hall/Villanova over 166½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
King Creole
Towson +14 vs Drexel
We've been 'ON' Drexel throughout the course of their current 4-game ATS winning streak. The run culminated Sunday with our 4* Dog GAME of the MONTH winner over William & Mary. But our College Basketball database tells us that it's time to 'fade' the Dragons on Tuesday night... as they are laying double digits to Towson in Colonial Conference play.
6-1 ATS this season: All Conference Underdogs playing with SAME-season REVENGE... who are also playing off a SU Underdog win (TOWSON).
6-18 ATS this season: All DOUBLE-DIGIT Conference favorites playing off 3 or more ATS wins in a row. If playing off 4 or MORE ATS wins (like the Dragons), the results improve to 2-9 ATS.... and 1-9 ATS if taking on an opponent of fa SU win (like TOWSON).
2-9 ATS this season: All Conference home teams playing off BB road games (Drexel)... versus any Conference opponent ALSO playing off BB road games (TOWSON).
Dan Bebe
IND +1.5 vs TOR
I will admit, late last night I looked at this match-up, and found a number of reasons to look at both teams. For one, the Pacers have been absolutely blown out in each of their last 3 games, so they're not exactly a team that everyone is going to look at and want to support. And Toronto is one of the hottest teams in the NBA, winning 5 straight games, and covering 7 of the last 9. But wait, the game before that hot ATS run started was a loss in Indiana, so there is some history here, and the Raptors played rather poorly in that game. The Pacers are not afraid of the Raptors, who just got some revenge of their own 2 days ago. Now, I think we're back to a spot where the Pacers are going to have the huge motivational edge in this one.
But we really cannot underestimate the power of the home-and-home revenge. Indiana is going to be playing without their Head Coach, who is tending to a death in his family, and I fully expect the Pacers to step up and grab a win over the Raptors in this game.
Bodog is offering this line at 1.5 for just a few cents more than the other sites, a nice sign that the public is continuing to hammer the Raptors at an alarming rate, and yet, every other book has been extremely hesitant to move this number off of 1.
This is a game where I think both teams play relatively well, believe it or not, but I actually think that the Pacers make the plays down the stretch needed to win. If the Raptors have one weakness it's still finishing games on the road, and while they did a great job in New York, they did not perform as well in Milwaukee or the last time they were here, in Indiana.
Take the Pacers to cover for a half-unit.
Scott Delaney
Atlanta at Oklahoma City
Yep, I'm taking a shot with the home team here, as Kevin Durant and company have looked increasingly better every game out.
Since a 13-13 start to the season, the Thunder have won 13 of 21, and are 15-6 when Durant hits at least half of his shots.
And right now, Durant is on fire.
His 32.1-point average in January was the best in the league, and he comes in after scoring a season-high 45 in the Thunder’s latest victory.
The Thunder held the Hawks to 40.0 percent shooting in a 94-91 victory, Atlanta’s only home loss in its past eight games, so with this one being in Oklahoma City, I'll gladly play the Thunder in a near pick'em situation.
2♦ THUNDER
Tony Weston
Bad call with UConn last night as the Huskies continue their struggles and get worked by Louisville. That’s not happening tonight as I’m handing you a solid winner on Villanova at home against visiting Seton Hall.
The Wildcats come into tonight’s game riding a 10-game SU winning streak where they have gone 9-1 ATS.
In that stretch Villanova has gone 4-1 ATS at home and have added to their money-making ways at home. For the season the Wildcats are 7-1 ATS and are beating opponents by more than 20 points per game (87.9-67.4).
Seton Hall, on the other hand, comes into this game having gone 1-4 ATS on the road this season and having covered in just 4 of its 13 lined games all season. Most recently, the Pirates have gone just 2-8 ATS their last 10 games.
Most importantly, in this series, Villanova has covered in 8 of its last 11 meetings against Seton Hall, including each of their last two meetings. Tonight, the Wildcats will do it again.
3♦ VILLANOVA
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. This is more of a situational play than anything else, as I believe Wake Forest is a little ticked about the way they've been playing lately while Miami is riding high from their recent home win over Virginia Tech. None of that will matter tonight as the 'Canes are about to get a rude awakening from the Deacs. Wake Forest is 9-1 at home while Miami is a dismal 2-4 on the road, with their only two road wins coming out of conference against sisters of the poor type teams. The Hurricanes have yet to win a conference road game, losing by an average of 17 PPG on the highway. Wake Forest is too deep for Miami, and they will ultimately win this game by the depth of their bench and their rebounding. The Deacons are outrebounding teams by nearly 13 boards per game at home and this is going to lead to a lot of second chance points tonight. Demon Deacons win this by at least 10.
2♦ WAKE FOREST
Brett Atkins
Delivered the big free winner on Monday night when Louisville crushed UConn in Big East action. Tonight I have another comp winner for you as I go with Michigan State to get the win at Wisconsin in Big Ten play.
Michigan State has rattled off 10 straight wins and nine straight in Big Ten action. Tonight they go to Wisconsin for a showdown with the Badgers that will go a long way to showing if the Spartans are for real or not.
I think they are as they have allowed just 58.4 points a game in seven conference wins, but gave up 70 in a pair of wins over Northwestern. When the Spartans faced the Badgers on Jan. 6, they scored a 54-47 home win, completely shutting down Wisconsin and cashing as six-point favorites.
Michigan State beat Northwestern 79-70 on Saturday, failing to cover at home. But on the road, they are 3-1 ATS in Big Ten road games and overall they are 6-3 in games away from home.
Wisconsin lost at Purdue on Thursday, falling 60-57 but cashing as a 9 ½-point ‘dog, snapping their 0-3 ATS skid.
The Spartans have cashed in six of the last eight meetings in this rivalry, including each of the last three. While the home team has dominated this rivalry, this is a different Michigan State team that has a killer instinct on the road. Wisconsin is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 Tuesday contests.
Michigan State is red-hot and they are going to do enough to steal this win in Wisconsin. It’ll be low scoring, but Michigan State pulls it out late. Play the Spartans.
3♦ MICHIGAN ST.
Jay McNeil
Five straight winners with my free play as the Grizzlies beat the Lakers outright Monday night, improving my record to 47-37-1 over the past 85 days! And there's more where that came from as I go back to college for today's winner.
Air Force is a team that you have to stay patient and disciplined against, and those aren't usual traits for San Diego State.
The Aztecs rely on their athleticism to overcome their opponent in many of their games, and that alone isn't going to allow them to run away from the Falcons tonight.
I expect this game to look much like Air Force's game at UNLV last week, when the Falcons didn't even look for a shot until there were under eight seconds on the shot clock each time and packed into a zone defense in an attempt to make the Rebels beat them from outside.
It worked for a half as Air Force took the lead into the break, and while UNLV started hitting from outside in the second half, it could only muster a 10-point home victory.
Outside shooting and foul shooting are not big strengths of the Aztecs, so I expect the Falcons to stay close again tonight. Take Air Force to cover the big number on the road.
2♦ AIR FORCE
Charley Sutton
The Suns take care of business and cash in on the road at the Hornets like I said they would.
Tonight, I’m handing you another Comp Play winner as I’m taking Mississippi on the road at Kentucky in some college hoops action.
The Rebels come into this game playing solid basketball lately, having cashed in 4 of their last 5 games and having gone 3-1 SU their last 4 games. On the road Mississippi is riding a 3-game ATS win streak and for the season is 8-2 ATS away from home.
The Rebels have covered in 2 of their last 3 meetings against Kentucky and will make it 3 of 4 tonight.
3 ♦ MISSISSIPPI
Joel Tyson
Tuesday night, and while the Bucks just put the screws to Miami in Miami on Monday for their 3rd straight win, I will have to go against them this Tuesday evening in Orlando.
The Magic did crush the Bucks 117-92 when last these teams met back on December 30th in Orlando, as the Magic has now won 6 of the last 7 series meetings, and 8 of the last 10 overall, while covering in 6 of those 10.
Orlando has won 3 straight, and 6 of their last 7, and they have covered 2 in a row, and 4 of 6.
They cover again here.
2♦ ORLANDO
Pete Angelo
Seton Hall at Villanova
Jay Wright won't let it happen.
His team won't lose focus, and there will be no letdowns.
Forget the No. 2 ranking, concentrate on the task at hand ... that's the type of coach he is.
Nova has won 10 straight, while the Pirates have struggled their way to a 3-5 conference record.
Villanova is also sporting an impressive 15-4 ATS mark, while Seton Hall is 4-9 versus the books.
Home team here, as Nova rolls
1♦ VILLANOVA
Chuck O'Brien
Take Villanova and lay the points against Seton Hall in Tuesday’s Big East action.
One of these days the oddsmakers are going to make an overcorrection on Villanova, but until that happens, you just have to keep blindly supporting the Wildcats. At 15-4 ATS, they own the best pointspread record in the nation, going 5-0 ATS in their last five games. In those last five contests (against Louisville, Georgetown, Rutgers, St. John’s and Notre Dame), Villanova has averaged 87.8 ppg and allowed 74.4 ppg – and again, those were five Big East opponents, and three of those games were played on the road. At home this year, ‘Nova is 9-0 SU and 7-1 ATS.
Seton Hall has been competitive in its last nine games, with eight of those games decided by single digits (including three overtime contests). However, the Pirates still lost six of those nine games, going 2-7 ATS. That includes an 0-4 SU and ATS mark on the road (0-3 SU and ATS in Big East road games). Additionally, Seton Hall has lost seven straight games to Villanova and is 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
With the way the Pirates struggle on defense – they’ve given up an average of 80.8 ppg over the last nine games and allowing their last five opponents to shoot 48.1% from the field – I don’t see how they stay within single digits of Villanova, which is a legit Final Four team and has scored more than 80 points in five straight contests and more than 90 points eight times in the last 13 games!
3♦ VILLANOVA
Jeff Benton
Hope you enjoyed Monday's easy freebie winner on the Phoenix Suns. For Tuesday’s free play, I’ll head back to the college hardwood and take Northwestern as a small favorite against Michigan.
I don’t know if this line is a trap or what, but it makes no sense to me. Northwestern is 14-7 overall (12-5 ATS) and 10-3 at home, while Michigan is 11-10 overall and 1-5 on the road (2-7 when you throw in neutral-site games). On top of that, when these teams met at Michigan on Jan. 10, Northwestern won 68-62 as an eight-point underdog.
So why are the Wildcats barely favored on their home floor tonight? Sure, they’ve lost three of their last four games, but three of those were on the road (and Northwestern was extremely competitive in the last two, falling 65-61 at Minnesota as a 12½-point underdog and 79-70 at Michigan State on Saturday as a 13-point underdog). The Wildcats also own a home victory over Purdue (72-64 as an eight-point ‘dog).
Yes, Michigan is coming off one of its better performances of the season, beating Iowa 60-46 as a 13-point home chalk, but Iowa stinks. And yes, the Wolverines have covered in eight of their last nine games – all in Big Ten play – including the last six in a row. But the one non-cover came against Northwestern. Besides, with this being a near pick-em contest, the pointspread almost certainly won’t even come into play. That said, if you want to consider the spread, well, the Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of 6½ points or less.
Finally, when you look at the home-road splits of these teams, the statistics are startling: On the road, Michigan averages 58.7 ppg, and shoots 40.3 percent from the field, while allowing 65.3 ppg on 47 percent shooting, while Northwestern outscores visitors 67-61.5 and outshoots them 43.2 percent to 40.8 percent. Kind of a no-brainer here, wouldn’t you say? Back the small home chalk.
6♦ NORTHWESTERN