Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, February 22,2011

Cajun Sports

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Utah Utes
Selection: Utah Utes -7.5

TCU hits the road for a meeting against Utah on Tuesday night in hopes of breaking their current losing streak to the Utes, which stands at 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS the last three seasons. This will be a tall order for a very weak Horned Frogs unit. Even though Utah has been up and down this season, they were able to defeat New Mexico over the weekend at the Pit and they took care of this Frogs team in Fort Worth back in January when TCU still had their leading scorer guard Ronnie Moss who was suspended in late January. The Frogs have lost their last ten games straight up and seven of eight against the number. TCU is 4-11 ATS as an underdog, 3-10 ATS versus conference teams and 3-8 ATS coming off a loss versus a conference rival. Utah has proven to be a solid investment going 24-11 ATS overall their last 35 games and 3-1 as a home favorite in this price range. Lay the chalk with the Utes as they continue their straight up and against the spread dominance over a poor Frogs team on Tuesday night.

Marc Lawrence

Houston at Memphis
Play: Memphis

The Tigers return home after being tripped up at Rice Saturday with revenge on their minds from being knocked out of last year's CUSA tourney by the Cougars. With Memphis a sterling 11-3 ATS in games when avenging a league tournament loss, look for the Tigers to improve to 5-2 ATS in this series here this evening.

Jim Feist

Houston Rockets vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons +2-110

The Pistons are looking forward to a fresh start after taking a few days off. They open at home and take on a team a long way from home and one that doesn't play any defense. That's key as Detroit is not a tall team, stocked with small scorers. Houston is on a 1-3 SU/ATS run giving up 112, 106, 102 and 114 points. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest, while the Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. A good matchup for the struggling home team. Play the Pistons.

Scott Spreitzer

Indiana State at Northern Iowa
Play: Northern Iowa

The Panthers are in true revenge mode for this one. They were whipped, 70-45 by Indiana State in early January. The Panthers couldn't have played any worse while the Sycamores were definitely on their "A-game." Northern Iowa made just 11 FGs that night on 46 attempts, about 24% from the field. They made just 26% of their 3-pointers, and even made just 17 of 26 FT attempts. ISU made 53% of their shots and a big-time, 60% from the arc. We're talking about a Sycamore team that's 234th in the nation in FG shooting, making just 42.7% of their shots. This is a huge game with both squads at 10-6 in conference action. Conference tourney seeding is on the line in a league that may only get one Big Dance ticket. And this is the final home game for the Panthers who end the season with a road game in Omaha against Creighton. The problem for UNI of late has been the loss of defensive specialist Lucas O'Rear who was lost for the season a couple of weeks ago. O'Rear is a main cog in the Panthers' defensive play in the paint. But ISU attacks with guard after guard. UNI is not likely going to face anything big in the middle tonight. UNI is on a 7-0 ATS run in revenge as a favorite over the last couple of seasons. They have won those games by an average margin of 11 ppg. The Panthers lost their Bracket Buster matchup to George Mason after blowing a 7-point second half lead. But they get right back on track with a win in their home finale.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Boston at Golden State
Play: Golden State

Coming off the All Star Break, the veteran Celtics are in a tough spot visiting the always tricky Warriors. Four of Boston's players were involved in the All Star festivities, so it wasn't really a break per se for them, while no Golden State players were featured during the weekend. Golden State entered the Break having won three straight and here in Oakland they've won seven of their last eight. That makes them a dangerous home dog, particularly because Boston has lost 11 of its last 13 visits to Oracle Arena. Take the points.

Matt Fargo

Mississippi vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina +2

South Carolina has dropped five straight games and because of that, it is listed as a home underdog for tonight. The Gamecocks were hammered in their last game on Saturday by 31 points at Kentucky to drop to 3-7 on the road this season. They have performed much better at home as they are 10-5 and the recent five-game losing streak has come against teams that are all .500 or better in the SEC and all came from within their division in the much stronger SEC East. Mississippi lost on Saturday as well as it dropped a 13-point game at rival Mississippi St. That pushed the Rebels to below .500 on the road and to two games under .500 in the SEC. That loss to the Bulldogs was a devastating one as not only was it against their bitter rival but it in all likelihood shut the door on any shot of an at-large NCAA Tournament bid barring any sort of huge run in the SEC Tournament. Rebounding from that will difficult, especially having to play on the road once again. South Carolina has played the toughest schedule in the SEC while the Rebels have played the eighth ranked schedule yet the two teams are separated by only one game. The Gamecocks do own quality wins over Vanderbilt and Florida and both of those teams were able to revenge those losses in the next meeting and those rematches came during this recent skid. This is arguably the last winnable game on the schedule for South Carolina as it closes with three more difficult games. In this series, South Carolina holds an 8-1 edge in games played in Columbia with the lone win for the Rebels coming in 2001 when they were ranked 16th in the nation. This season in home games, South Carolina has held its opponent to under 41 percent shooting in nine of 15 contests and that bodes well against a Mississippi team that is shooting just 41.2 percent over its last five games. Look for the Gamecocks to put an end to their losing streak with a win on their home floor tonight. 3* South Carolina Gamecocks

BIG AL

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt
PICK: Tennessee +6.5

Tennessee falls into a 19-2 ATS team situation tonight. What we want to do is play on the Volunteers as a road underdog of more than 1 point, if they're off a SU home loss to a conference foe. And if their opponent is off a SU win, then our 19-2 angle zooms to 10-0 ATS. On Saturday, the Vols fell 69-63 to Georgia, while Vandy blew out Auburn 77-60. Tennessee is 26-15 ATS its last 41 against Vandy. Take the Volunteers plus the points.

DAVID CHAN

New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs
PICK: Toronto Maple Leafs

I bet value where I see it and believe the Leafs will hammer the Islanders tonight.

Both teams have been playing better of late, and each has a mathematical opportunity for a playoff position; the Isles have won six of seven since Jack Capuano replaced Scott Gordon as head coach.

New York though is still 11-games out of eighth spot with 22 games remaining.

The Islanders lead the season series 2-1, beating the Leafs 2-1 in Toronto on October 18th.

Toronto has been playing much better of late as well going 6-2-2 in February; the Leafs are 12th in the East, four points ahead of New York and seven behind Carolina for the final playoff spot.

Toronto last beat New York 5-3 on February 8th (note that the Isles are a brutal 11-22 [-8.1 units] revenging a loss vs. an opponent).

This is a tough spot for the Islanders though having played last night in Florida (5-1 victory); I expect Toronto to take advantage of this situation; all signs point to a home blowout!

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Montreal Canadians @ Vancouver
PICK: Montreal Canadians +1.5

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is the Canadiens on the "puck line":

The Habs are 31-22-4-3 this year; Montreal lost 4-0 to the Flames in the Heritage Classic on Sunday; that was this teams sixth loss in its last seven games and third straight overall.

Important to note here that Montreal is 3-0 (+3.2 units) after three or more consecutive losses.

On the other side of the rink: The Canucks are 38-13-4-5 this year; on Saturday they hammered the Stars 5-2; Vancouver has alternated wins and losses over its last seven games.

Bottom line: This is an interesting matchup as Vancouver has not lost all year in regulation at home to any team from the Eastern Conference, while Montreal has not earned a single point on the road against any team from the West.

After its recent struggles, it goes without saying that Montreal will be motivated against the "leagues best"; its been outscored 8-1 in the first two games of its three-game trip; “We need a better effort,” Brian Gionta said. “They’re a tough team (Vancouver) and it’s going to be a tough game for us. We need to find a way to turn things around here and make sure we’re playing the way we need to play.”

This game also features two of the leagues best goaltenders; Roberto Luongo and Carey Price.

Luongo is 11-0-3 with a 1.81 GAA in 14 home starts since a loss to the Blues on December 5th; Price had 34-saves in a 2-0 home victory over Vancouver back on November 9th.

Important to point out that Vancouver is dealing with some key injuries, as defenemen Dan Hamhuis and Keith Ballard are still out; on the flip-side, the Habs continue to get healthier as Mike Cammalleri played his first game in over a month on Sunday; Hal Gill was also back in the lineup after missing four games.

This will be a tightly contested affair, and could very well see overtime; consider a second look at the Montreal Canadiens on the "PUCK LINE" in this game.

James Patrick Sports

Pacers vs. Wizards

The Pacers are putting up some serious numbers as evidenced by their Over the Total results resulting ina ( 6-0) ATS mark in the Pacers last (6) overall. Washington is harly a defensive juggernaut and the Big Man's Tuesday complimentary selection is Indiana - Washington Over the Total.

JR O'Donnell

Mississippi -130

17-10 Ole Miss $$$$ line tonight - 130 as IMO a huge statement game vs the 13-12 Sc. Gamecocks. The Rebels got stung pretty hard by Miss State last game & the game before they Murdered Auburn by 31.. Now they play a super soft South Carolina ball club who also was pounded last game, an embarrassing 31 point loss .. & guys was worse than that!!! The Rebels in Jr's Opinion are just a way better and sound ball club.

These Ole Miss Rebels crew is tied for 3rd in the SEC West. The O'ster feels that "Coach Kennedy" will have them ready, he has 102 Wins @ Ole Miss the most wins in a five-year span by one coaching staff! The sweet stoke of Zach Grahmn who had 30 vs the Tigers will keep the 3's bombing!! Another big stat plus is these Rebels lead the SEC and rank 20th in the nation with a 75.3 FT %...The Rebels need a quality Big Dance W on the resume.The #'s are also strong here... Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Rebels are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in South Carolina & Rebels are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

Tom Freese

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Boston Celtics -4½

Golden St is 26-29 straight up this year. The Warriors are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. The Warriors are 2-6 ATS their last 8 games as home underdogs. The Warriors are 6-12 ATS when allowing 100 or more points in their last game. Boston is 40-14 straight up this year. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games when playing with 3 or days rest and they are 5-1 ATS their last 6 Tuesday games. The Celtics are 22-6 ATS after allowing 80 or less points in their last game.

Tom Stryker

Texas Christian vs. Utah
Play: Utah -7½

As the season winds down, these two Mountain West teams are headed in opposite directions. TCU has dropped 10 straight and nine consecutive on foreign soil. Meanwhile, Utah has won half of its last 10 battles including two-in-a-row over Wyoming and New Mexico.

Even though the Utes were without their top scorer and rebounder Will Clyburn, they still found a way to slide into The Pit as a massive underdog and pull off the upset over the Lobos. There's a chance Clyburn will be sidelined tonight with a bruised heel too. Will is listed as a game-time decision. With or without Clyburn, my hard earned dough will still be on the home team in this one.

Technically speaking, Utah has played well in this series posting a strong 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS mark in the last nine meetings. Even more impressive, as a single digit home favorite checking in with momentum off a straight up win, the Utes are a stunning 47-15 ATS! Those two team trends are nice but this next college system really makes this best bet pop.

Since the 1990-91 season, college basketball home favorites priced at -7 or more are a reliable 69-44 ATS provided they won straight up as a road dog of +10 or more last. If our host is facing an opponent that is not off a victory of three points or more, this situation tightens up to a juicy 49-27 ATS! Utah applies to the general system and the powerful tightener.

Technically speaking, this isn't the greatest spot for the Horned Frogs either. When matched up against an opponent that enters with momentum off a SU and ATS win, TCU has struggled something fierce notching a weak 67-100 ATS record. Also, as a guest since 2005 running with three days of rest or less, the Toads have posted a pathetic 3-35 SU and 13-24-1 ATS mark.

Utah head coach Jim Boylen has seen his kids get better and better over the past few weeks. Off their momentum-building victory at New Mexico, the Utes will easily dispose of this TCU team that has thrown in the towel on its season. Take Utah.

Ray Monohan

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt -6

Tuesday night at the Memorial Gym in Nashville Tennessee tries to keep its hopes of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament alive, and I don't think it happens. Tennessee has lost four of its last five, and are really underperforming of late. A scary team to bet on thats for sure. The #18 Commodores beat Auburn for the 5th straight time on Saturday and have won 8 of 10 games since a 67-64 loss to Tennessee on Jan. 15. Vanderbilt has the top scorer in the SEC in John Jenkins, (19.9PPG). The Commodores can put up the points in bunches, especially at home. I see this being the difference down the stretch as I don't see the Vols hanging here. Vanderbilt is 14-1 on their home floor, and they beat Tennessee badly at home last year. Home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Some other trends I like in this one. Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games. Commodores are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.