Info Plays
3* Minnesota -3
Reasons why Minnesota will cover:
1) Michigan State has been a great team to go against on the road this season. They are 4-9 SU and 4-9 ATS. Minnesota is a solid 11-3 at home, and are coming into the game off two consecutive home losses to Ohio State and Illinois, which sets them up for a cover tonight, as they are 36-18 ATS in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games since 1997.
2) Michigan State is just 5-12 ATS after playing a game as favorite this season, and only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
3) Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record, as its 50-18 over the last 5 seasons.
Denver Money
Montreal / Vancouver Under 5.5
While the total has gone over in the last 4 meetings between these two teams I think tonight we will see the game stay under the 5.5. Montreal is struggling to score right now as they are averaging less than 2 goals a game in their last 5 games and they will be facing a tough defensive team in the Canucks tonight. Vancouver is only allowing 2.20 goals per contest over their last 5 games and only allowing 2.28 for the season. While both of those look good they have played even better at home allowing only 2.18 goals per game. I expect Luongo to play a great game in the net tonight and expect that Carey Price will be back on his game after he has struggled in his past few. Look for a low scoring game tonight and let's ride the under for 1 unit.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Islanders +163 over TORONTO
Win, lose or draw, this line is ridiculous and must be played. Yeah, the Leafs are playing better but didn’t they just trade Tomas Kaberle and Kris Verseeg for the future? Toronto will benefit down the road for those moves but surely they’re not a better team on the ice today. The Islanders are red-hot with six wins in seven games and they scored four or more in five of those seven games. They Islanders are also coming off back-to-back wins over Florida and the Kings in which they outscored that pair 8-1. They play their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs and that fact certainly has influence on this line. However, winning takes a far less toll, the Islanders are relaxed and having fun and they offer up a tremendous amount of value here. Play: N.Y. Islanders +163 (Risking 2 units).
Boston –104 over CALGARY
The most surprising team over the past month has been Calgary. They’re on a serious roll right now that just keeps going. Every time you expect it to come to an end, it doesn’t. Calgary is 11-1-2 in its last 14 games and moved into a tie for fifth place in the West. The Flames were 14th in the West before starting that run. Over its last three games, Calgary has outscored the opposition 17-3. Despite all that, we’re not buying it. A close look shows that the stars aligned just right for them. They caught every struggling team in the league during their run. The Flames last four wins have come against Montreal, Dallas, Colorado and Ottawa, all struggling teams that have a sickening combined record of 6-47 over the last little while. At or near the beginning of their streak they beat St. Louis, Atlanta and Dallas (again) and those are three more games against laboring squads. Throw in a couple of decent wins over Nashville twice and the Canucks once but it still does not add up to a convincing run. The Flames are going to hit the skids again and chances are it starts here against a Bruins team that has loaded up for a championship. The recent acquisition of Tomas Kaberle, Chris Kelly and Rich Peverley is serious and Peverley, the least known of the trio, might have been the best pick-up of them all. Furthermore, the Flames are coming off that highly emotional Heritage Classic game against the Canadiens in front of a huge crowd with tons of media on hand. A complete letdown is likely and so are the Flames returning to mediocrity because that’s who they are. Play: Boston –104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Edmonton +168 over MINNESOTA
The Wild have won a lot of games this season because of great goaltending. When you lay big juice with this host you’re taking a huge risk because on most nights they’re being outplayed. That’s not to say they’re a bad team. They find ways to win and they’re in just about every game they play. Despite that, they simply don’t warrant being this big a tag against anyone including Edmonton. The Oilers are dead last in the league but they’re a dangerous team because of an offense that can score goals. They’re also on a 3-0 run that has seem them outscore Dallas, Montreal and Atlanta by a combined 13-4. The Oilers have lost 14 straight at this venue and that’s really an incredible fact and one the Oilers are certainly aware of. This is an opportunity to get that proverbial monkey of their back and with some good energy and another strong effort the Oilers definitely have a chance to do just that. In no way can the Wild be endorsed as a –178 favorite. Play: Edmonton +168 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +179 over ST. LOUIS
The Av’s are in a horrible funk but this one is all about playing against the Blue Notes. St. Louis will play its fourth game in five nights and tomorrow they’ll play their fifth game in six nights when they host the Oilers. This is a rescheduled game from one that was postponed earlier in the season, as the NHL does not schedule four games in five nights. The Blues are a big price tonight and they’ll be a big price tomorrow. Should they win here we’ll play against them tomorrow too because it’s extremely unlikely that they’ll win both games under these conditions. One also has to figure that the Av’s will be jacked up with Matt Duchene back in the line-up and their new teammates playing at their previous home. The Av’s are well-rested and in a much better scheduling spot than the Blues and it’s for that reason that the Av’s can get off the mattress here. Big overlay. Play: Colorado +179 (Risking 2 units).
Matt Rivers
Atlanta Hawks +7.5
Sure I’ll grab around a touchdown with the boys from Hotlanta. The Hawks are good enough to compete with anybody in this league and that includes the Lakers at Staples. I’m really not all that afraid of Kobe and the struggling big bad Lakers. Things have not been great of late, with the three straight losses, and something is just off right now with Phil Jackson’s squad. Los Angeles has played some really questionable games of late and now after all of the hoopla of the All-Star game including Kobe earning another MVP award I can see a little bit of fatigue along with a letdown from the defending champs.
The Hawks aren’t going to win the championship but they are a tough squad that very well may better the 53-win season from a season ago. Joe Johnson and Al Horford were All-Stars and throw in a guy that plays like an All-Star in Josh Smith plus Jamal Crawford and a few others and I 100% expect the visitors to come after the defending champions. Teams get up for big games like this and therefore I can see the Hawks hanging a little extra giddy up in the tank. This is the Lakers in front of all of the celebrities and stars in LA. What more motivation can a team draw? Maybe playing at Madison Square Garden, maybe, but that is about it.
Kobe and the gang have dropped three in a row and that included the shocking upset loss in Cleveland to end the first half. One could say that the break came at a right time for the champs but I’m not so sure and somewhat believe this team may be just a little bit off and, break or no break, will continue to be a little bit off.
Tony George
Iowa State vs. Texas
Play: Texas -17.5
You wonder at this point how much motivation Iowa State has. One of the best players is still out with a high ankle sprain in Jamie Vanderbeken. The Cyclones are very thin on the bench as they lost 5 scholarship players to suspension for grades. They are a short a great scorer here, they have lost 9 in a row and suffered a home defeat by Missouri which had not won a road game yet this season by 6 points on Saturday.
Texas is off one of the biggest upsets of the past month in college basketball at the hands of a feisty Nebraska team on Saturday in Lincoln. Texas’s main rival in the Big 12 Kansas just dropped a bomb on Okie State last night on ESPN, and I expect Rick Barnes to have the Longhorns fired up for this one, and I feel bad for Iowa State in this one, because if Texas wants to name the score, they can!
Iowa State is 2-7 on the road this year and giving up 75 ppg on defense on the road, against a very strong home team that will be motivated, and a home team that allows just 58 ppg at home, against a team who is shooting just 39% from the floor on the road, and in their last 5 games has allowed 83 ppg and 50% from the floor.
Sam Martin
Louisville at Rutgers
Play: Louisville
We're working under the assumption that last week's road loss at Cincinnati was more of a fluke than anything else from this Louisville team, who comes into this game off another impressive performance - this time a 13-point home win against Connecticut. They'll face a Rutgers team that is awful in Big East play, and with this line being so small we're practically picking the outright winner. That has to be Louisville, who not only has momentum on their side but should have a big rebounding edge as well. 5* Play on Louisville.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit LA Lakers -7
The Lakers should show up extremely hungry and focused after entering the All-Star break off 3 straight defeats, including an embarrassing loss to the league-worst Cavaliers. In fact, plays on any team coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are an impressive 30-10 ATS since 1996. This system is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Lakers certainly haven't had much trouble against the Hawks at home. They have won their last 4 at Staples Center against Atlanta by a minimum of 8 points. Going back to 1996, the Lakers have won 10 of 13 at home against the Hawks by an average score of 104-94. The Hawks are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus the Western Conference. Lay the points with the Lakers tonight.
Patrick Webb
Indiana Pacers vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Indiana Pacers -1
I love the Pacers in this match up. Indiana has several advantages in this game including a big bench edge with the injuries to Kirk Hinrich and Al Thornton, better three point shooting and a huge rebound advantage in this game. The Pacer's have an advantage in the front court and get get the production from Collison to negate any scoring by Jon Wall in this game. I also like the match up of Granger vs. Howard to be in favor of the Pacers in this game. The Pacers should be boosted by the return of guard T.J. Ford and have a solid second unit that has grabbed 33.6% of the teams' points compared to the Wizards 28.5%.
The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, as a home dog, and vs. a team with a losing road record. Indiana was one of the hottest teams before the break and have gone 4-1 ATS after an ATS loss in their last 5 situations. The Pacers are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
The Pacers have big edge as an offensive team and are a solid shooting defense team. Washington is near the bottom of the NBA in most statistical categories. The Pacers have gone 8-3 vs. the bottom 10 in PPG (net +4.4) and 8-2 vs. the bottom 10 in net scoring (+6.5). The Wizards are 2-7 vs. the top 10 in Pace losing by an average 7.2 points per game and are 3-14 vs. the top 10 in DeFG losing by a net of -8.6 points per game. Indiana is in the top 10 in 3pt% (36.6 and 8 made per game) and the Wizards struggle to defend the three ranking #21 at 37.9% and are allowing 6.9 threes per game.
Finally the Pacers are the 12th ranked team in total rebound % at 50.5% compared to the Wizards 48.1%. Washington really struggles on the defensive glass grabbing only 70.8% of defensive rebounds.
BEN BURNS
Clippers @ Thunder
PICK: Under 208
The first game back after the NBA All-Star Break provides us with a rather unique betting situation. Players' "routines" have been altered and the majority of them weren't involved in the All Star game itself. That can often lead to some "rust" on the offensive side of the ball.
Naturally, results vary from year to year. However, if we look at last season, in the day following the All-Star Break, the "under" was 7-3. A closer look reveals that ALL 10 of those games finished with 204 or fewer combined points. The only one that finished with 204 had an O/U line of 220. Overall, those 10 games averaged only 194.5 points.
The Clippers managed only 87 points in their first game back from "The Break" last season. The Thunder scored 99, holding Dallas to only 86. That game stayed below the number by double-digits, finishing with 185 combined points.
When these teams met earlier in the season, the final score finished above the total. However, the O/U line for that game was only 196.5 and the teams combined for just 199. Of course, tonight's number is significantly higher, which I feel provides us with very fair value.
Looking back to last season and we find that all three meetings finished with 194 or fewer combined points. They had final scores of 104-87, 101-93 and 83-79.
The Clippers, still without their leading scorer, entered the break off three consecutive games which fell below the total. The Thunder saw two of their final three stay below the number. Consider the Under.
Dan Bebe
Denver Nuggets -1
The ultimate "Injured (or traded) Star Theory" play is happening here.
This game is an exercise in fading perception -- the Nuggets lost Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups (among others) in a blockbuster trade with the New York Knicks. They're shorthanded, potentially distraught over the loss of their leader, and facing a Memphis team that beat them in the most recent meeting only a couple short weeks ago.
All signs point to an easy Memphis win, right?
Not so much.
Denver's remaining players are going to take this game personally - it's a revenge match, they want to show they don't NEED 'Melo to win, and the line has been deflated substantially because of the perception that the Nuggets are going to collapse.
I like Denver to come out guns blazing.
Larry Ness
Ohio St. -10.5
Thad Matta is wondering what is going on. His team is 25-2 yet after losing at Purdue 76-63 on Sunday (by the way, Purdue is currently 8th in both polls and is 15-0 at home this season!) he was inundated with "what went wrong?" questions! "From the tone of this, I thought we lost a bowl game today," Matta said with a laugh, poking fun at the dark cloud that settles over the city when the football team infrequently falters. Matta points out that his team has lost to two 'hot hands.' Wisconsin's Jordan Taylor scored 21 of his 27 points in the second half to lead Wisconsin back from a 15-point deficit on Feb 12, handing the Buckeyes their first loss, 71-67. On Sunday, Purdue's E'Twaun Moore scored a career-high 38 points in leading Purdue to a 76-63 upset, Ohio State's second loss. Clearly, there is no reason to panic in Columbus. Ohio St still leads Purdue by one game in the Big 10 standings (12-2 to 11-3) and plays THREE of its last four at home (lone trip is to Penn St ), beginning with tonight's home game vs Illinois. Ohio St trailed Illinois for most of the first meeting, before winning a tight one 73-68 back on Jan 22. Illinois is 4-7 its last 11 games and I don't see them staying close here. PG McCamey (14.5-6.2 APG) is a quality player but his surrounding talent falls way short of what Ohio St will put out on the perimeter in tonight's contest. Veteran guards Buford (14.0) and Diebler (11.1) are joined by freshman Craft (6.9-4.5 APG) plus 6-5 swingman Lighty (12.2-4.0). Up front, Illinois' 6-9 Davis (11.6-6.9) and the 7-1 Tisdale (9.5-6.5) are really not up to the challenge of slowing 6-8 super-frosh Sullinger (18.0-9.9), who is joined by fellow freshman Thomas (7.8-3.8) plus the hard-working 6-8 Lauderdale (4.4-3.6). Ohio St is 17-0 at home and off Sunday's loss will be looking to re-establish some mojo. Illinois is in the WRONG place at the WRONG time. No revenge here for the Illini.
Frank Jordan
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets -1.5
Memphis won four straight games heading into the All-Star break and start the second half of the season in Denver who is a game ahead of them for a playoff spot. Denver is coming off a blockbuster trading away Carmelo Anthony to New York. Denver will now rely on Jr Smith, Nene and Raymond Felton to hold onto a playoff spot. Look for Denver to play inspired basketball as they are free from the Melodrama and can focus on the on court. Play Denver
Rob Vinciletti
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Los Angeles Clippers +8.5
This game fits a nice system that dates to 1995. What we want to do is play against home favorites of 8.5 or more with 4 or more days of rest that scored 120 or more as a home favorite in the game prior to the 4+ day break. These teams are 2-9 ats. While this system is solid, the sample is small for a 16 year study and the Clippers are not a good road team. The Clippers are however very good off a dog win covering in 7 of the 9 following games. Ironically they have won the last 3 times they have played here. The Thunder have lost 6 of 9 to the spread vs Pacific Division teams and 4 of 6 to the spread vs losing teams in the second half. If the line on this one were to shoot upwards of 12 points we would then recommend the Clippers on a unit rated basis.
Jack Jones
Grizzlies/Nuggets UNDER 206
Both the Memphis Grizzlies and Denver Nuggets will be missing superstars tonight when they get together for their first games following the All-Star break. Carmelo Anthony (25.2 PPG) and Chauncey Billups (16.5) have been shipped to the New York Knicks in a big 3-team trade. Newcomers Wilson Chandler, Tomofey Mozgov, Raymond Felton and Danilo Gallinari are all doubtful to play tonight after each was traded late Monday night and will spend Tuesday getting situated into their new home. That leaves a Nuggets team that is far less explosive and one that will struggle to reach 100 points tonight.
For the Grizzlies, Rudy Gay (19.8 PPG) is out until mid march with a separated shoulder he suffered against the 76ers in their last game before the All-Star break. So the Nuggets will be without their top two scorers, and Memphis is without their second-leading scorer. That means there's a good possibility of a low-scoring affair tonight in Denver. The UNDER is 6-1 in Grizzlies last 7 road games, and the UNDER is 7-1 in Grizzlies last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The UNDER is 6-0 in Nuggets last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Take the UNDER 206 points in this game Tuesday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Indiana Pacers -1.5
While Indiana is a notch below the elite teams in the NBA, it has certainly taken care of business against the bottom of the barrel. Indiana is 21-10 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons, defeating these squads by an average score of 103.6 to 98.4. It is also worth mentioning that the Pacers are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Lay the points with the Pacers tonight.