DAVE COKIN
UNLV VS. BOISE STATE
PLAY: BOISE ST -6.5
If you’re into scheduling and situational spots, this should be right up your alley.
UNLV is hitting the road following a wild overtime win against rival Nevada. The Rebels appeared to be dead ducks in that game. But they rallied with a spectacular running three-pointer by Patrick Macaw just prior to the end of regulation. That forced an overtime and UNLV rode the momentum of that great Macaw shot to a five-minute extra session blowout.
The bad news for UNLV is that they will now be down yet another player as they head to Boise. Dwayne Morgan is the latest to join the ranks of the walking wounded, and that means the already shorthanded Rebels will be even more so for this game.
Boise State hasn’t played since last Wednesday and one would think they’ll still be seething over that disaster. The Broncos appeared to have an easy road win wrapped up at New Mexico. They were ahead 76-61 with six minutes remaining against the Lobos. Then the roof caved in, as the Broncos were outscored 19-2 from that point on and ended up losing the game by two. That had to be one of the ugliest collapses I’ve seen all season.
Now the very well rested Boise State squad gets the take the court with should be more than ample motivation. They surely want to erase the memory of what took place in Albuquerque last week. They’d also like to avenge their ten-point loss at the Thomas & Mack, which was yet another game where the Broncos faded badly down the stretch. But on that evening, the Rebels had Stephen Zimmerman and Ben Carter as key contributors, and they’re now both injured. As for Morgan, he’s not as meaningful a player, but his absence probably means more minutes for one of the walk-ons and that’s not a good thing.
UNLV plays its best basketball when they can get into transition and let their superior athleticism take over. But with what amounts to virtually no bench, that’s not going to be easy to do over 40 minutes, particularly in hostile surroundings against a team that also likes to push the pace. I don’t think UNLV is about to roll over and submit without a fight, but the deck appears stacked against them here. I’m on Boise State minus the points.
Sleepyj
Nets / Blazers Under 210
My numbers show this game rating a 206...So i find value in that alone...Looks like death row here for the Nets over the next two weeks...9 straight road games and it starts with the west coast trip today..never and easy task, but the Nets have a decent setup though..After each of the first 6 games on the road they get a day off in between..That's rather important as they will play the starters rather heavy in each game..So with a day break i expect the Nets to come out strong on the defensive end...They also had a day off prior to this game...Nets on the road struggle to score points though..This is one of those games that can get away from them...If that's the case the Blazers may let off the gas late or stick with the 2nd unit guys for a longer stretch..i think that brings down the scoring on both sides..Nets will have no problem resting guys late if the score it out of hand...Portland has now won 5 games in a row, but my concern for them is the scoring they have been allowing...4 straight games now the other team has 103 points or more..I believe the emphasis for this game for Portland will be defense throughout...Blazers are sitting in the 7th seed right now..A slip up here would be a bad thing....Portland has a very tough schedule upcoming...They have 12 games on the road out of the next 15 !!....They also play a ton of playoff teams over the next 15 games...It would be wise for Portland to play the best game they can tonight versus a weak team...I think defense is key for Portland tonight and grabbing a win might be the best thing for them as they head into this brutal stretch of games.
Ken Thomson
Arkansas -2
Arkansas had a 65-60 lead in the Bayou in the first meeting before floundering down the stretch and losing a hard fought 76-74 game to LSU. The Tigers got the bulk of the foul calls on their home court as they went to the charity stripe 20 more times than the Hogs as they gained a 10 point advantage in that department. Ben Simmons had a monster game on the boards with 18 rebounds. Look for the Bud Walton Arena to be rocking as the Razorbacks look to even up the season series. Shooting guard Keith Hornsby is back on the shelf for the Tigers and will miss this contest. Anthlon Bell looks to have a good shooting game as he was just ( 1 of 11 ) from the floor in the Hogs last game. Moses Kingsley needs to have a good game in the paint and stay out of foul trouble. SG Dusty Hannahs also needs to get his three point shooting act back in gear for Arkansas to be able to take out Simmons and the Tigers. I'll go with the Razorbacks by 5-8 points in this one.
Boise St. -6.5
Boise State was cruising along at the Thomas & Mack with an 8-point Halftime lead in Vegas. Like a rough night in Sin City the Broncos blew the lead and lost the game thanks to 18 turnovers. James Webb III should have a better go of it inside the paint as the Rebels are a smaller squad than the first meeting. UNLV will be without Dwayne Morgan but even more important in this match-up should be the loss of both Stephen Zimmerman & Ben Carter. The two big guys combined for 28 points and 19 rebounds in the first meeting. Without them the pressure on Derrick Jones Jr. to slow down Webb III who has averaged 19 1/2 points per game along with 12 rebounds in his last two MWC games. Patrick McCaw hit ( 5 of 6 ) three's in first meeting and will need to have those type numbers if the Rebels are to win on the road. I like Boise State to roll in this one against the shorthanded Rebels.
Rob Vinciletti
Ohio vs. Bowling Green
Play: Ohio -1½
Ohio U has major payback in store for Bowling Green tonight. Ohio lost at home as a 10 point favorite earlier in the season. The Bobcats are 23-3 and 7-0 this year vs losing teams. They have covered 5 of 6 in February and 6 of 8 on Tuesdays. The Falcons are a dismal 0-6 straight up and ats of late and have failed to cover 9 of 13 vs winning teams and 7 of 9 at home including all 3 times the total was 145 to 150. Look for Ohio U to serve up some Big Mac conference revenge tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Rockets vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -4½
Edges - Jazz: host team is 5-0 ATS in this series. Rockets: 10-15 ATS versus non-division foes off a loss this season. With the Jazz looking to avenge a pair of losses suffered earlier this season against Houston, look for Utah get its revenge here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Utah.
Scott Spreitzer
Evansville vs. Bradley
Play: Bradley +15½
The Braves finally snapped their lengthy losing streak with a 73-70 win over Drake last time out. But bettors already know that Bradley has been a bankroll builder of late, covering three in a row and six of their last seven games. And after a 32-point loss at Evansville when last these teams met, I expect a full on effort in BU's home finale. The Purple Aces have won three straight games, but they have been overvalued, losing seven of 10 ATS. Their win last time out over SIU allowed Evansville to pull a game ahead of the Salukis and they're now tied for 2nd place in the MWC with Illinois State. The pressure will be on the Aces as they also look to avoid what would be a tough loss to the selection committee. The added pressure, along with their home finale against Northern Iowa coming up next makes this number tough to cover. And while BU is on a 6-1 ATS run, Evansville is 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a losing home record.
Will Rogers
Pelicans vs. Wizards
Play: Under 213½
The Washington Wizards have won two of three since the All Star break, and they've played improved defense holding opponents below 100 points in three of their last four overall. They host the New Orleans Pelicans tonight, and superstar PF Anthony Davis. After scoring a ridiculous 59 points with 20 rebounds against Detroit, we may see Davis suffer a bit of a let down in Washington tonight.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Pelicans have been brutal on the road, with a record of 7-21, and they have lost three straight at Washington. They scored an average of just 86 points in those three losses.
2. Home Cookin' - The Wizards are 5-1 in their last six versus teams with a losing record, and they've covered the spread in five straight when coming off two days of rest. The under is 6-1-1 in their last eight home games against teams that are .400 or worse on the road.
3. X-Factor - These two teams have failed to reach the total in nine of the last 11 meetings, and four straight in Washington.
Jimmy Adams
New Mexico vs. Colorado St
Play: New Mexico -1½
New Mexico is catching Colorado State at the right time as the Rams have lost 3 straight games and 5 of their last 7. In their latest game they lost to a poor Wyoming squad at home 84-66. Talk about embarrassing. CSU is not in good current form and New Mexico won't have any problem taking advantage on Tuesday night, especially in this point spread range.
The Lobos are in bounce back mode as they were shocked by Air Force last time out. That should work to our advantage as UNM certainly won't overlook the Rams. Even with that setback, the Lobos have still come out victorious in 8 of their last 11 games. This is a very efficient team, especially on the offensive end of he court. They have a strong field goal percentage from both 2 and 3 point range, and can also knock down shots from the charity stripe. The spread looks a little short here so my money will be with New Mexico Tuesday.
Jim Feist
Orlando at Philadelphia
Play: Over 203
Philadelphia is No. 23 in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, while Orlando ranks No. 16. Orlando is on a 9-4 run over the total, including 5-1 over on the road. Philadelphia likes to run, on a 3-0 run over the total tallying 110, 114 and 103 points. Unfortunately they last all three because the defense surrendered 114, 121 and 129! The over is 21-10 in the 76ers last 31 home games, as well as 15-7-1 over the total following a straight up loss.
Bob Harvey
Rockets vs. Jazz
Play:Rockets +5
The Houston Rockets and Utah Jazz, who are part of a three-team race for the final two playoff spots in the Western Conference, square off tonight in Salt Lake City. Tip-off is slated for 9 PM ET at Vivint Smart Home Arena where the Jazz are favored by -5 with the total at 202. Houston holds a half-game lead over the Jazz for the final playoff spot and they’ve taken the past four meetings and 10 of the last 12 series meetings.
The Rockets (28-28, 32-24 ATS) was one of the NBA's bigger disappointments in the opening three and a half months and stumbled into the break with three consecutive double-digit losses at the tail end of a 2-6 slump. The Jazz fell 115-111 at Portland on Sunday for their third loss in four games to follow a seven-game winning streak from Jan. 27-Feb. 9.
The Jazz (27-28, 28-27 ATS) took advantage of Houston’s slump winning seven of eight during that stretch to move past the Rockets for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Utah has won its last six home games thanks to one of the league's top defenses which is allowing 96.8 points per game.
Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games against the Northwest Division while Utah in 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.
The Rockets are 9-1 to the OVER in their past 10 road games and 15-3 in their last 18 games vs. the Western Conference. The Jazz are 4-1 to the over in their past five games.
Big Al
Dallas vs. Winnipeg
Pick: Dallas
Both of these teams come into this match-up tonight off of three-game losing streaks. But if not for two shootout victories the Jets would be coming in here on a six-game losing streak. And although they're coming home tonight after a four game road trip (and six of their last seven away from Winnipeg), that may not be an advantage for the Jets. That's because they are just 2-8 in their last 10 games here at the MTS Centre going all the way back to the start of the year. One of those home losses was to this Stars team right here exactly three weeks ago by a 5-3 final. There's no nice way to say this about the Jets right now - they're just a really bad team. And they might become even worse at the upcoming trade deadline if they decide to ship some of their productive veterans off to other teams in exchange for some prospects and draft picks to begin a rebuild. This month Winnipeg has allowed 3.33 GPG while scoring a goal less on average (2.33), and while the Stars have allowed even more tallies this month (3.60 GPG), their 3.20 GPG scoring average has made their games much more competitive. The Stars are 4-1 in the last five meetings and the Jets are 0-5 in their last five home games vs. winning teams.
Larry Ness
Ohio vs. Bowling Green
Pick: Ohio
Ohio U hired Saul Phillips away from North Dakota St prior to last season and had high expectations. Phillips spent seven productive seasons coaching the Bison, twice winning 26 games with the school advancing to the NCAA tourney in both of those years. In fact, in 2014, the 12th-seeded Bison upset 5th-seeded 80-75 Oklahoma in the second round, before losing 63-44 to 4th seeded San Diego State. Not much went right for Ohio in Phillips’ first season, as the Bobcats were just 10-20 (5-3 in MAC play). Reading the Blue Ribbon CBB Yearbook prior to the season it said, “Ohio is just too young to get back to the 20-win territory where Bobcats fans (and Phillips) are accustomed to living” but Phillips’ Bobcats have surprised many people.
Ohio is 18-8, including a 9-5 MAC record which is topped by only 10-4 Akron in this 12–team conference. The frontcourt features a trio of 6-8 players in Campbell (17.5-9.9), Mich St transfer Kaminski (12.8-4.0) and the greatly improved Setty (10.4-4.5). Houston transfer Simmons (14.0-7.7 APG) has been TERRIFIC as the team's new PG and freshman guard Dartis (10.3) gives Ohio FIVE, double digits scorers. Kaminski has missed the last two games with a concussion and will probably miss here. 6-6 freshman Block (5.4) has started in his place in those two games, scoring five points and adding nine assist two games ago, then scoring a season-high 14 points in Ohio’s most recent game.
Bowling Green was happy to add a new coach last year, just like Ohio. The Falcons’ choice was Wichita St assistant Chris Jans and after a second round loss in the CIT, BG finished 21-12. It marked the school’s first 20-win season since 2001-02 but following that game, an intoxicated Jans was seen engaging in lewd and inappropriate behavior toward women at a bar near campus. A Bowling Green alumnus recorded Jans on his cell phone and reported the incident to school officials. Following an internal investigation, Bowling Green fired Jans for violating a morals clause in his contract.
Taking over this season was Michael Huger. He was a star player at Bowling Green from 1989 to 1993 (playing under then-coach Jim Larranaga), but this marked his first head coaching job. BG is just 13-14 on the season (4-10 in the MAC) but ONE of those wins came Jan 12 in Athens against the Bobcats when the Falcons won 91-75 as a 10-point underdog. Can BG sweep the season series from Ohio U? The Falcons hardly match up well with the Bobcats, as the 6-7 Parker (14.3-5.4) doesn’t get much help up front plus the guard duo of Denny (11.9-7.1) and Alcegaire (10.0) is not quite as good as the Ohio duo of Simmons and Dartis .
Revenge works in this one for a team on a five-game winning streak (5-0 ATS), having won SEVEN of its last eight (7-1 ATS)
Art Aronson
Calgary at Los Angeles
Pick: Calgary +1.5
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge spot: Calgary will be looking to atone for a 4-1 setback at home to the Kings on New Years eve. Letdown/Look-ahead spot: The Kings broke a three-game slide with a 2-1 OT win over Nashville last time out and with games vs. bottom feeders Calgary tonight, and Edmonton and Buffalo on deck, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side coming into this one a tiny bit complacent as it looks forward to this favorable part of its schedule. ATS statistics: While the Kings are 34-20-2 overall and 15-10 SU at home, they’re just 5-21 on the PUCK-LINE in LA, while the Flames are 15-13 on the PUCK-LINE on the road. The bottom line: Seems like this one could come down to the wire, making CALGARY on the PUCK-LINE a very intriguing investment opportunity.
Matt Fargo
TCU vs. Texas Tech
Play: TCU +11½
Texas Tech is making a strong push to make it into the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2007. The Red Raiders have won four straight games, all coming as underdogs, to move to 7-7 in the Big XII which is good for just seventh place but the overall strength of the conference is helping the case for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders were involved in a 1-7 stretch in January so the resurgence is quite extraordinary considering where they were. Now they come in as a big favorite in what looks like an easy victory but coming off this four-game stretch and with road games at Kansas and West Virginia up next, this is a horrible spot. TCU has struggled in the conference yet again as it is 2-12but it has put up some solid efforts against very good teams, playing games against Texas, Kansas, West Virginia and Iowa St. closer than anticipated. The Horned Frogs lost the first meeting at home and while we are not into backing road revenge, this has been a road dominated series with the away team covering nine of the last 11 meetings which show how unimportant home court is for these two typically below average teams and tonight, TCU should be the more motivated team.
Mike Lundin
Rockets vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -5
This looks like a good spot to back the Utah Jazz at home against the Houston Rockets Tuesday night. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in the series and the Jazz will be looking to revenge a pair of defeats in a home-and-home series back in January. They're 15-9 ATS when revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season and 4-1 ATS as a home favorite between 3.5 and 6 points. The Rockets have struggled lately and lost each of their last three games prior to the All Star break. They did defeat the Suns 116-100 Friday, but they're just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on three or more days rest and 0-4 ATS in their last four following an ATS win. Utah is coming off a 115-111 loss at Portland but impressed when defeating the Celtics 111-93 here in Salt Lake City two days earlier. This is a huge game with both sides jostling for the last playoff spots in the West, and the Jazz can't afford to lose another game to the Rockets.