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Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, February 23

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JACK JONES

Denver Nuggets -2

I like this situation for the Denver Nuggets, who just lost to the Sacramento Kings in their first game back from the All-Star Break by a final of 110-116 on the road. Now they'll want revenge at home only four days later, and I look for them to get it as only 2-point favorites.

The Nuggets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA for weeks. They are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games. They are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.

The Kings have posted two straight wins, but those came by a combined 10 points over the 76ers and Nuggets. They had lost eight of their previous nine games, and they cannot be trusted on the road. The Kings are 9-18 on the road this season, giving up a whopping 111.5 points per game in the process.

Sacramento is 3-13 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games over the last two seasons. Denver is 26-14 ATS vs. teams who score 99-plus points per game this season. Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

 
Posted : February 23, 2016 10:07 pm
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BRANDON LEE

LSU vs. Arkansas
Play: LSU +4

Arkansas comes into this game with a solid 12-3 record on their home floor and are fresh off a 84-72 win at home against Missouri. LSU on the other hand is just 3-8 on the road and have lost 2 straight and 3 of 4 overall. The Tigers also just learned that they will be without guard Keith Hornsby. The perception here is that the Razorbacks have a huge advantage, but the books aren't seeing it that way. The fact that LSU is only a 4-point dog tells me the oddsmakers are expecting the Tigers to keep this game close and potentially win outright. LSU desperately needs a win here to improve their NCAA Tournament hopes, while Arkansas is just playing out the season at this point. Tigers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 21 off a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record. Razorbacks are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after a game where they failed to cover and 19-38 in their last 57 after scoring 80+ points in 2 straight games.

 
Posted : February 23, 2016 10:20 pm
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SPORTS WAGERS

EDMONTON -110 over Ottawa

OT included. After three straight wins the Senators trade for Dion Phaneuf has seemingly put this team on the right track for a run at a playoff spot. The Sens swept their last home stand with victories over Buffalo, Detroit and Carolina. While the results were nice the Senators were outshot in each of those games. Two of those wins were by the thinnest of margins, as both the Sabres and Red Wings lost in the shootout. Despite their modest winning streak, the Sens are still six points back of the last Wild Card spot in the East. Ottawa has only slightly increased their chances to make the playoffs on this current run and a check over at Sports Club Stats show that the Sens have a 5.2% shot to make the dance while the club they trail for 8th, the Penguins have a healthy 77.4% to get in. This shows us that the Senators look to be a lot closer to the post season in the standings than they really are. The Sens haven't been good on the road lately dropping four straight. If we look back a little further, Ottawa has only won three of its last 16 games outside the Canadian Tire Centre. Sens Coach Dave Cameron has heaped piles of praise on his new blue-liner but what is he supposed to say? The fact is the Sens have been outshot in every game since Phaneuf's arrival except one, a 4-3 home loss to the Avs. It's quite likely that Phaneuf's history of losing will cost Cameron his job long before Dion's contract runs out so they might as well try and get along.

It's been the highest of highs and the lowest of lows for the Oilers lately. The return of rookie sensation Connor McDavid gave this team a big boost in his first game back, a 5-1 win over the Jackets. In McDavid’s second game back, Edmonton buried these Senators in Ottawa, 7-2. Since then, the Oilers have hit the skids winning just one of their last eight games, a 5-2 victory over the tanking Maple Leafs. McDavid has played well since his return with 15 points in 10 games and he makes everyone around him better. Jordan Eberle has snapped out of his funk with McDavid at his side. Eberle has 11 points in those 10 games. Edmonton has lost four straight at home so they aren't exactly an exciting bet at the moment but that's just the way we like it. This is a classic buy low, sell high situation with the Senators rolling and the Oilers struggling. We know Edmonton is not this bad. They create a ton of scoring chances and figure to do the same against the worst Corsi against team in the league. We’ll dip into this Edmonton well one more time because of that.

Nashville -½ +119 over TORONTO

Regulation only. Whether it’s Pekka Rinne or Carter Hutton in goal here, it should not matter because the Maple Leafs do not figure to get many scoring chances no matter what. You see, Nashville gives up the fewest scoring chances in the league and it’s not even close. The Preds will now employ that stinginess against a Toronto team that sorely lacks players that can light the lamp. That’s a bad combination for Toronto. The Maple Leafs have allowed four goals or more in six of their past seven games. The only team that didn’t score four or more on them during this stretch was Vancouver. They surrendered five to the Giroux-less Flyers on Saturday, seven to the laboring Blackhawks, five to the Oilers, which was Edmonton’s only win over their last eight games, and six to the Senators. The Maple Leafs are dropping whatever assets they had while most of the other assets are on the rack. James Reimer is also laboring badly but the Maple leafs are forced to use him because Jonathan Bernier has been worse. The Leafs are stuck with Bernier’s contract so they’ll showcase Reimer here in hopes of attracting some buyers. That's likely to backfire.

The Preds might have the NHL’s best core of defensemen. If they don’t, they are a top-3 in that area for sure. This is a rare chance for the Predators to play in Toronto. They have six players on the roster from Ontario so it’s always a big game for them when they get to play here. However, it’s been almost two years since Nashville has played in Toronto. The last time they played here was back in November of 2014 when they pasted the Leafs, 9-2. They’re much better now and the Leafs are much worse. Lastly, these games are must wins for teams like Nashville that are trying to secure a playoff spot. The Predators are too good to be fighting for a playoff spot but more importantly, they are too determined. The Preds have not underachieved. They dominate almost every game they’re involved in but weak goaltending has been their Achilles Heel. Against Toronto, Bob Barker could play goal and this edition of the Preds probably still wouldn’t lose to the team that Toronto will ice here.

Columbus +165 over DETROIT

OT inlcuded. The Blue Jackets defeated the Bruins in Boston last night 6-4 but that was a flattering score to the B’s and it will not stop us from backing the Jackets again here. Columbus is in classic late season form. They seem to always go on a tear when it's much too late to make a dent in the standings. The Jackets have points in 10 of their last 12 games and have been riding the hot had of Joonas Korpisalo between the pipes. We expect Korpisalo to be back between the pipes tonight, as he's played 13 straight including a 2-0 record in the second half of back- to-backs over that time. Both of those victories were on the road as well. The Jackets have won three straight away from the Buckeye State. Boone Jenner has emerged as a solid scoring threat for the Jackets, as he lit the lamp twice versus Boston last night for his 20th and 21st goals of the season. With no pressure on them, Columbus has thrived in the spoiler’s role for years and we’re not about to sleep on them this year. Besides that, they are simply playing at a high level.

The Red Wings are a mess right now. While he was their “backup”, Petr Mrazek played very well this season. We say backup because it was clear that Mrazek had taken over the starters roll in late December but he wasn't officially named the number one netminder until Detroit's Valentine's Day game versus the Bruins. Since then the wheels have fallen off. Mrazek's magic has vanished with losses in this last three starts. The last game he won wasn't pretty either, as he allowed five goals versus Boston on February 14th. The Red Wings now return home from a four-game trip licking their wounds, as they went 0-4 and were buried by Pittsburgh, 6-3 and by the Islanders, 4-1. Detroit is also 0-4 in their last four games versus the East. What we have here is one team that is hot taking back a huge tag against another that is having difficulty finding a winning formula. Hot v cold gets the call

 
Posted : February 23, 2016 10:21 pm
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Harry Bondi

ORLANDO (-6) over Philadelphia

While it's not like us to lay points on the road in the NBA, especially with a subpar team like Orlando, the situation warrants it tonight. Not only are the Magic 3-0 ATS this year and 5-0 ATS the last three years when listed as a road favorite of three or more, but they have also absolutely dominated this series, winning 20 of the last 26 straight up and going 25-9 ATS on this floor in the last 34 meetings. Orlando is also 6-2 ATS in its last eight games, and will be fully focused since it actually lost the last meeting between these two teams. Lay the road chalk!

 
Posted : February 23, 2016 10:22 pm
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Bruce Marshall

Akron -6.5

It has been apparent all season in the MAC that these programs are headed in opposite directions, confirmed by Akron's 75-46 rout back on Jan. 23, when the game would have been even more one-sided had Miami not gotten 18 points from sr. G Geovanie McKnight. Now McKnight and three other RedHawks are available again after serving a one-game suspension, but Miami remains relatively punchless (just 62 ppg) and connects on only 29.8% beyond the arc, which makes it tough to rally when falling behind.

 
Posted : February 23, 2016 11:20 pm
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Dr. Bob

Opinion - Ohio (-2½) over BOWLING GREEN

These teams are headed in opposite directions, with Ohio having won and covered in 7 of their last 8 games while Bowling Green is riding a 7 games straight up and spread losing streak. A lot of that can be explained by 3-point variance but my variance adjusted ratings favor Ohio by 5 points. I’ll lean with Ohio based on the line value and I’d take Ohio in a 1-Star Best Bet at -2 or better.

Opinion – BAYLOR (+2½) over Kansas

This was a tough game for me to make a decision on, as Baylor applies to some of my strongest situations (124-39-5 ATS, 143-57-8 ATS) while Kansas applies to a very negative 55-153-10 ATS situation based on their current straight up and spread winning streak. The fact that Kansas won the meeting in Lawrence by 28 points is favorable too, as home underdogs or pick with a winning record that lost the first meeting by 25 points or more are actually 116-79-7 ATS over the years. My issue with this game is that I’m not getting any line value, as my ratings favor Kansas by 3½ points. I hate to pass on a collection of such historically good situations but I’d like the line to tick up a bit before making the Bears a Best Bet. I’ll consider this game an opinion at +2 or +2½ points and I’d take Baylor in a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.

 
Posted : February 24, 2016 12:39 am
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