LARRY NESS
New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics
PICK: New York Knicks +10
The Knicks celebrated the 40th anniversary of their 1970 NBA championship team at halftime of last night's game with the Bucks. However, before it was all said and done, Milwaukee's Andrew Bogut had scored 24 points and added 20 rebounds in his third career 20-20 game. He scored just two point less than the Knicks did in the entire second half as a team, as Milwaukee won 83-67. New York hadn't scored fewer points since a 104-59 loss in Boston on November 29, 2007. T-Mac shot just 4-of-15 and may miss tonight's game (does it matter?). The Knicks have Lee (20.1-11.5), Harrington (17.5-5.6), Chandler (15.4-5.3) and Gallinari (14.0-5.1) to score and Eddie House could be a valuable addition, providing scoring off the bench. House scored 24 points and hit four threes in his debut for the Knicks but against the Bucks shot only 4-of-16 and scored just 10 points over 31 minutes. However, despite its ugly shooting (33.8 percent), New York was within six with under nine minutes left. The Celtics opened the second half of the season by winning its first three games on the West Coast but Sunday lost at Denver, 114-105. Pierce (17.9-4.6-3.3) is questionable with a thumb injury but despite suffering from the flu, Nate Robinson is expected to make his Boston debut. Robinson averaged 17.2 PPG for the Knicks last year but Mike D’Antoni left him on the bench for 14 straight games in December and he was finally dealt him to Boston right before the trading deadline. Bottom line is this. The Celtics have gone 35-6 SU at home in each of the past two seasons but are only 15-9 SU this year, going a sad-sack 6-17-1 ATS. Despite a 3-1 mark since the break, the Celtics are just 12-14 since winning at Orlando on Christmas Day, going 8-17-1 ATS. Take the points with the Knicks.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Florida Gators -2
Florida is looking to get back into the NCAA Tourney for the first time since it won it all in 2007. The Gators are 0-3 against ranked opponents since a 77-74 win over Michigan State early in the season so it could really use another resume boosting win tonight. Florida played Tennessee to a 1-point game on the road earlier this season and I like its chances to avenge that loss. The Volunteers are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. I like Florida, who is 12-3 at home, in this spot regardless, but if the Vols get caught looking ahead to Kentucky, the Gators could really take it to them here. Lay the number.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Georgia State +9.5
Georgia State will be out for revenge tonight after falling to Old Dominion by 16 points last month. The Panthers were still able to cover the 17.5-point spread in that contest and they should be able to cover this number on their home floor tonight. The Panthers have played Old Dominion tough at home in recent years, winning by 1 point in last year's matchup and losing by just 8 in the previous season's matchup to cover the spread in both games. The Panthers enter playing their best basketball of the season, and as a result, they have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games. This month, the Panthers beat George Mason, played William & Mary to a 3-point game and played Northeastern to a 9-point game on the road. These are 3 of the top 4 teams in the conference. Old Dominion is the other top team, and I fully expect the Panthers to give Dominion their best shot as well. I also expect Old Dominion to get caught looking ahead here as they have a date with VCU, who beat them earlier this season, up next. Georgia State is 12-3 ATS when revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent over the last 3 seasons and 18-4 ATS when revenging a road loss vs. an opponent over the last 3 seasons. We'll take the points.
Info Plays
3* on Evansville +10
Reasons why Evansville covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Underdogs of 10 or more points (EVANSVILLE) - off an upset loss as a favorite, playing their 3rd game in a week. This is a 120-61 ATS System hitting 66.3% since 1997. UNI is in an ideal letdown spot here after their huge bracket buster win over Old Dominion over the weekend, and with Illinois State coming up next, the Panthers are very likely overlooking Evansville here. Bet Evansville at home.
Wunderdog
Old Dominion vs. Georgia State
Play: Georgia State +9½
The Monarchs had a huge opportunity on Bracket Buster Saturday to add to the resume, but failed to get it done vs. Northern Iowa. It was their third road loss in their last four games, and the three losses have come by an average of 10 points per game. They now have to pick up the pieces and play on the road after an emotional road loss. I don't believe we will see the Monarchs’ "A" game in this one. Georgia State has won two straight games, is playing with more confidence and has not lost a home game by the margin set here in over five weeks. Georgia State has played well at home with a 9-4 mark, while the Monarchs are just 1-5 ATS vs. teams with a home winning percentage of .600+. This one will play a lot closer than the number here, so I'm backing Georgia State.
Black Widow
1* on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5
We'll back the Thunder as they host the Phoenix Suns tonight in a game where Steve Nash will be watching from the sidelines. Nash remains one of the most important players to his team in the league, and without him Phoenix will be a bit lost. Not to mention they have to contend with an Oklahoma City team that is riding a 9-game winning streak. They also have to deal with Kevin Durant, who has scored 25 or more points in 28 straight games. The Thunder are a superb 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. OKC is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Take the Thunder and lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on OKC Thunder -6.5
With Steve Nash not going for the Suns tonight, we'll look for the Thunder to continue their winning ways. The Thunder have won 9 in a row and they are 6-3 ATS in those games. The Suns are 3-9-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games in this series. The Thunder are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning S.U. record and 17-3 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. We'll lay the points.
Jack Jones
Hornets/Cavs UNDER 200
Cleveland will really clamp it down on the defensive end tonight after 3 straight losses, allowing more than 100 points in each loss. The Hornets will continue playing tremendous defense here as they've allowed just 94.5 points/game in their last 4 contests overall. Cleveland gives up just 94.2 points/game at home this season. The last 6 meetings in this head-to-head series have all seen 199 or less combined points. With no Chris Paul still for New Orleans, their offense has certainly struggled in comparison to when he's running the show. The Hornets are 10-1 UNDER in road games after playing 4 consecutive home games since 1996. New Orleans is 14-3 UNDER off a home win this season. Go with the UNDER.