John Ryan
Nebraska at Wisconsin
Prediction: Under
The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 100 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?35-12 ATS UNDER mark for 75% winners since 1997. Play under the posted total with home teams where the total is 129.5 or less off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival and is now facing an opponent off an upset win as a home dog. Nebraska is a struggling anemic offensive team, but they do play a solid defense. However, they pack the paint mostly in a 2-3 zone, and as a result, they do not get many steals. They average just 5.1 steals per game and that ranks 313th in the nation. Wisconsin is 54-26 UNDER (+25.4 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game on the season since 1997. This is in large part attributed to the fact that Wisconsin will work the ball around the 2-3 looking to get one of the top of the key defenders out of a position and then attack the paint. If double teamed, the perimeter will be wide open. However, Wisconsin has been largely inconsistent from the perimeter this season. Bottom line is this will be a grinding slow-paced style of Big Ten basketball game. Take the UNDER
We won with our Triple Confirmed Plays Yesterday.
You might be the only one who knows how to use Dunkel. =)
Joe Gavazzi
Xavier +5
I am eager to go against a Memphis team who has a commanding three game lead in the watered-down CUSA. While the Tigers enter a bit over-confident with their 18 game win streak, Xavier has been toiling against superior opposition in the vastly underrated A10. After leading much of the game on Saturday, Xavier fell on this floor, 75-71, to VCU. It dropped the Muskies record to 49-8 SU at the Cintas Center L3+Y. In so doing, it sets up a strong revenge scenario as X gets their payback from a hard-fought 72-68 loss at Memphis last year. This would have been a stronger play if not for the fact that Xavier lead guard, Dee Davis, will most likely miss tonight’s game with concussion like symptoms.
New Orleans -2½
In this matchup, Brooklyn has clearly struggled in this series. They have won just 2/9 recent games in the series, dropping the last four at this site. Do not expect things to get much better for this visitor tonight. High-scoring guard Johnson (foot) is expected to miss his third straight game. In the previous game without him, Brooklyn lost 76-72 at home to Memphis. Without Johnson, they shot less than 30% from the field, a league low for the season. As I have told you before, under dogs following a home loss in which they scored fewer than 80 points, are a 79-43 ATS play against. The Hornets had a hard start at home this year, beginning 3-13 SU. Since that time, however, they have turned things around, winning 7/11. That included a confidence building 110-95 Sunday victory against woeful Sacramento. Yet the win keys a situation that finds competitively priced home teams of +3 to -3 following a 15 point victory to be 42-17 ATS against a visitor who just played a game in which neither team scored 90 or more points. Expect the series history to continue for a revived NO team facing a Nets team without one of their leading scorers.
Larry Ness
Golden State vs. Indiana
Pick: Indiana
Golden State lost a season-high six straight games from Feb 5-19 but visits Indiana tonight on a three-game winning streak after beating the Suns and Spurs at home, then ending a five-game road losing streak Sunday afternoon in Minnesota with a 100-99 win over the T-wolves. The Warriors came back from 16 points down in the first quarter for just their FOURTH road win in 14 games. Jarrett Jack (13.8-6.0 APG) posted team highs of 23 points and eight assists off the bench and David Lee (19.2-11.0) recorded his league-leading 36th double-double with 22 points and 13 rebounds. The Pacers returned from the All Star break to go 3-0 SU and ATS. Indiana is 23-5 SU (18-10 ATS) at home on the season, including 18-2 over its last 20, going 14-6 ATS. The Pacers likely won’t catch the Heat for the East’s best record but it’s my opinion they’ll hold off the Knicks, Hawks, Nets and Bulls for the No. 2 seed. Danny Granger sat out the team’s first 55 games this season but was on the court for the first time this season Saturday night in Detroit. He played just under 20 minutes off the bench and tallied just two points on 1-of-10 shooting. "He was rusty, but that's to be expected," head coach Frank Vogel said. "That's why we aren't throwing him out there for 40 minutes. He's been a lot better in practices, but this was his first time at game speed in a long time." Indiana has developed a great chemistry without Granger and Vogel has to be careful how he eases the team’s All Star back into the rotation. George (17.6-7.9-4.0) has been a revelation this year, Hill (14.6-4.0-4.9) has taken over “big time” at the point with Collison gone, plus West (17.2-7/6), Hibbert (9.9-8.1) and Stephenson (8.4-3.8) have all done their jobs. Indiana leads the NBA in points allowed (89.4 PPG) and defensive FG percentage (41,3%). This has been a home-dominated series with the visiting team losing NINE of the last 10 meetings. More importantly, the Warriors have lost 10 of their last 11 at Indiana, including five straight while allowing an average of 114.2 PPG. lay the points.
Teddy Covers
Wright St. vs. Illinois-Chicago
Pick: Under
We don’t see many college basketball totals lower than 115. When we do see one as low as the total tonight in the Wright State at Illinois-Chicago game, it’s this low for a darn good reason.
The Flames and Raiders are the two lowest scoring, slowest paced teams in the Horizon League. And they both rank among the Top 3 teams in the conference defensively as well. So when these two teams meet, we can expect low scoring, slow paced affairs, like the 55-49 grind-it-out game they played in Cleveland last month.
Don’t expect tonight’s rematch to be any more uptempo than the first meeting was. Wright State is playing without leading scorer Cole Darling; their best offensive creator. The Raiders next two leading scorers – Reggie Arceneaux (returning off a multi-week concussion absence tonight) and Miles Dixon – have both shot less than 38% from the floor for the season. Don’t expect any sort of offensive explosion from the Raiders here.
UIC leading scorer point guard Gary Talton, has gone ice cold from three point range, just 5-29 from downtown over the past month. Like Wright State, Illinois-Chicago’s scorers don’t connect at a high percentage from the floor – four of their top six healthy scorers shoot less than 40% from the floor. Expect points to be at a premium from start to finish! Take the Under.
King Creole
Wis.-Milwaukee +14.5
It's REVENGE time for the double-digit dog PANTHERS ion Tuesday in Horizon league Conference play. We'll start our query by looking at each team individually... then we'll query the conference... and finally, we'll check out the REVENGE situations for THIS season.
WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE is 27-13 ATS when playing with same-season single Revenge ('SSR1') in their Horizon League history. That includes 10-2 ATS in the last 4 years as underdogs of > 2 points.
Wisconsin-Green Bay is 1-6 ATS as favs of > 2 pts off a SU loss when playing INTO 'SSR1'.
In this particular conference:
HORIZON LEAGUE big underdogs of +13 > points (WISC-MILW) playing with 'SSR1' have gone 9-1-1 ATS in the last 4 seasons.
So far in the 2012 / 2013 season:
12-3-1 ATS this year: All conference underdogs playing with 'SSR1' and off BB SU wins (WISC-MILW) versus any opponent off a SU loss (Wisc-GB). these teams have gone a PERFECT 5-0-1ATS if they were an underdog (or 'pick) in their last game (WISC-MILW).
Andre Gomes
Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5
Even though they lost one more time, Minnesota showed some good moments of basketball against Golden State on their last game. Their problem keeps being their poor decisions down the stretch and especially the fact that they can't hit a 3 pointer to save their lives, something that puts them as the worst 3pts shooting team in the league by far. The good news is that Ricky Rubio is looking amazing lately, as he is looking far more explosive and his overall numbers have improved in both ends of the floor. Over the past five games, Rubio has averaged 14.2 points, 9.2 assists, 6.2 rebounds and 4.6 steals per game. The Wolves have been +17 in Rubio's 174 minutes of floor time during this span and -23 in the 66 minutes where he was at the bench. Nikola Pekovic is also looking better physically, after being banged up for a lot of time, while Andrei Kirilenko has also returned at the lineup after an injury. Thanks to all of this, the Wolves are now a more competitive team lately.
Phoenix is coming from a home loss at San Antonio, but they showed more effort in that game than in their previous contests. They never surrendered even though they were down in the score early on the second quarter and that's already something new and good for them. Phoenix's current top goal is to develop young players. The Morris Brothers played almost 20 minutes each and they brought a lot of energy to the team. They combined 5 offensive rebounds, more than the whole team of the Spurs had in that game, while Coach Hunter is rewarding the players who play hard on the court and not players like Michael Beasley, who was on the court for just 3 minutes against the Spurs!
For this game, we have two teams in different levels right now. Minnesota is now more healthy with Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko and so, they feel that they can win games, while Phoenix is currently living with a lot of uncertainty in the rotations. They have now the 3rd worst record in the league and so, I wouldn't be surprised if they enter in tank mode for the rest of the season. Mostly thanks to the defensive aggressiveness from Rubio and Kirilenko, Minnesota is now forcing and creating a lot of turnovers, with an opponent turnover rate of 16.05% on their last 10 games! If they had that number as their season average, they would be #1 in the league! This aggressiveness will be important for tonight, as Phoenix's offense has no flow whatsoever lately and they have been very turnover prone, with 18.2 turnovers per game over their last 9 games! Therefore, we have a great edge favoring the Wolves's defense tonight.
Minnesota's main problem on defense has been on the perimeter, but Phoenix's offense is the second worst 3pts shooting team in the league, only in front of Minnesota. With an healthy Ricky Rubio on the floor, Minnesota's offense is actually looking good. There are passing lanes and floor spacing, with Rubio always finding a way to feed Nikola Pekovic and Derrick Williams down low, while Andrei Kirilenko's Point Forward skills give the Wolves another good passing option. Note that against the Warriors, all the Wolves's starters ended the game with a positive net +/- team numbers and they actually hit 33 of their 67 shots, while their bench scored just 11 points and shot 4-18 FG! Of course, Golden State has Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry coming off the bench and that gave them a huge second unit edge over Minnesota, but Phoenix doesn't have such quality players coming off the bench! Minnesota is a way better team than Phoenix right now and so, they don't deserve to be underdogs in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Wolves tonight.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Wisconsin/ Nebraska Under 113.5: Talk about some low scoring games. These teams have met 3 times in the last year and a half and the most points scored in those games was 104 points and 2 of those failed to reach 100 points. Just some pathetic offense when these teams meet. Most of that bad offense comes from Nebraska as they have failed to score more than 45 points in any of these games and they may have a problem topping that in this one, especially since Wisconsin allowed just 51.2 ppg on 37.2% shooting at home. On the road the Huskers have averaged just 55.1 ppg and they have shot just 28.5% from long range and under 70% from the charity stripe on the road this year. Now at home the Badgers defense the arc very well, allowing just 29.7% from long range and they also defense the FT line well at home (Still wondering how that stat is relevant LOL), allowing teams to convert just 64.3% from the charity stripe. Nebraska on defense has been pretty good this year as they are 89th in defensive efficiency and they have allowed just 62.7 ppg on the year and in a slow paced game they should be able to hold the Badgers to the low 60's at best. 62-45 sounds about right for this one.
Wake Forest/ Florida State Under 139: Wake has had some high scoring games this year, but allot of that has been due to some bad defense. I don't feel their defense will hurt us in this one. Florida State has struggled on the offensive end of late as they have averaged just 61.5 ppg in their lats 10 games. I just dont see them breaking out vs a Wake defense that has allowed 73.6 ppg on the road. Wake has really struggled to score on the road this year, where they average just 63.3 ppg on 40.4% shooting and FSU has been decent on defense at home, allowing 68 ppg on their own floor. With two struggling offenses I just don't see how this game comes all that close to 140 points. Low 130's at best here.
Memphis/ Xavier Under 133: Memphis' last 5 games have averaged 154 ppg, but those games were in in Conference USA , where the games are higher scoring. This is a game vs Xavier and the A-10 and I feel the Musketeers will slow the game down enough for this one to stay under the total. Xavier is 286th in the nation in tempo and they also play excellent defense, allowing just 61..8 ppg on 40.5% shooting overall, including allowing just 60.9 ppg on 39.5% shooting at home. Memphis is one of the better scoring offenses in the nation, but this team also plays excellent defense, allowing 64.4 ppg overall and 62.7 ppg on the road. Both teams are ranked 86th or better in defensive efficiency, plus we have 2 teams that shoot under 70% from the FT line and 2 teas that defense the arc very well. This game should see neither team putting up more than 65 points.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Chicago/ Cleveland Under 187.5: The Bulls are having an awful time scoring of late, as they have averaged just 81.8 ppg in their last 5 games. At home they have struggled to score all year, putting up just 90.9 ppg, with their home games averaging just 180.7 ppg. The Cavs offense has picked up of late, averaging 103 ppg in their last 5 games, but it will be very hard for them to come close to that number vs a Chicago team that allows just 88.8 ppg at home. Defense hasn't been a problem for Chicago all year as they have allowed just 91.2 ppg overall, including just 84.2 ppg in their last 5 games. Chicago's home games have been ugly low scoring games and I expect the same here. The Bulls slow down the pace at home and rely on their tough defense to win games. That should happen here giving us a game that may not reach 180 points.
New Orleans/ New Jersey Over 185: The Nets last 5 games have averaged 198.4 ppg (Regulation) and that is still with a game vs Memphis that put up just 148 points. This game will not be that ugly or not nearly as low scoring. New Orleans has picked up the pace of their offense of late and it has helped them average 100.2 ppg in their last 8 games. Defensively they have allowed 95+ points in 6 of their last 8 games, while allowing 100 ppg in their last 4 games. The Nets put up 72 points in their last game, but they had averaged 104.3 ppg in their previous 4 games (during regulation). This is an offense that can put up some points and should tonight vs the Hornets, especially after such a horrible showing offensively in their last game. I look for both teams to push tempo a bit here and get us into the 190's.
Brandon Lee
Tennessee +8.5
Florida is getting too much respect on the road against a Tennessee team that is playing its best basketball of the season. The Volunteers come into this game on a 5-game winning streak that includes three road wins and two double-digit victories at home. Tennessee is a very respectable 11-3 at home this season and you can expect the home crowd to give the Volunteers plenty of energy against a top ranked team like the Gators. Florida is nearly unbeatable on their home floor, but they have had their struggles on the road. In their last three road games they have lost at Missouri and Arkansas, with the only win coming against a bad Auburn team. Tennessee should be able to keep it close and cash in on this large spread. Take the Points!
Jack Jones
Suns/Timberwolves OVER 195
The books have set the bar too low in this contest between two of the worst teams in the Western Conference in the Phoenix Suns (18-39) and Minnesota Timberwolves (20-33). A big reason for both of their struggles is their lack of defense. Minnesota yields 101.1 points/game on the road this year, while Phoenix gives up 100.2 points/game overall.
My biggest reason for backing the OVER Tuesday is the fact that these teams have typically played in much high-scoring games than this posted total in their last several meetings. Indeed, The Timberwolves and Suns have combined for 199 or more points in 17 straight meetings. That's time-tested evidence I'll gladly back with my own money tonight.
The OVER is 7-1 in Timberwolves last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The OVER is 6-1 in Minnesota's last 7 road games. The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Phoenix. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
Joe Duffy
Wake Forest vs. Florida State
Play: Florida State
The Demon Deacons have been very erratic. Straight off their biggest win of the year at home to Miami (Joe Duffy’s GodsTips Premium Pick winner), they will come out fat and happy here. They are just what the doctor ordered for an angry Florida State team returning home off consecutive road losses.
Keep in mind that in two of their last three road games, Wake Forest was blown away by 26 and 25 points They also lost at home to a suspect Georgia Tech team just before the defeat of overrated Miami Florida.
Wake Forest is just 1-8 SU in true road tests so far. In three of their last four road games, they failed by 13.5 or more to the number. Here are their ACC road stats: outscored by 15.6 points per game, is shooting 37.5% from the floor and averaging 14.3 turnovers (19.9 in the last two road games). Wake’s ACC road opponents have shot 50.4% (49.6% from three) and averaged 75.3 points (to 59.7 for Wake).
It is a big revenge game for FSU. Considering the home team has won each of the last four by 18 or more that will not be a problem. Yes it is two bottom feeders, but considering winning bets is so much about situational gambling and spot play so much points to the home chalk.