Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday February, 28

Michigan State at Indiana
The Spartans are coming off a 62-34 win over Nebraska and look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games after allowing less than 50 points in the previous game. Michigan State is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spartans favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-2)

Game 719-720: Michigan State at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 78.072; Indiana 72.048
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 6; 141
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 2; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-2); Over

Game 721-722: Kansas State at Texas A&M (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 67.140; Texas A&M 64.580
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 2 1/2; 118
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 4; 120 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+4); Under

Game 723-724: Connecticut at Providence (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 65.182; Providence 60.049
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 5; 142
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 3; 137
Dunkel Pick Connecticut (-3); Over

Game 725-726: DePaul at West Virginia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 55.359; West Virginia 65.899
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 10 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 13 1/2; 149
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+13 1/2); Under

Game 727-728: Mississippi at Arkansas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 59.629; Arkansas 66.496
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 7; 138
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 4 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-4 1/2); Under

Game 729-730: Minnesota at Wisconsin (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 63.322; Wisconsin 70.284
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 7; 122
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 9 1/2; 116
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+9 1/2); Over

Game 731-732: Florida at Vanderbilt (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 66.899; Vanderbilt 74.144
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 7 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 3 1/2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-3 1/2); Under

Game 733-734: Xavier at St. Louis (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 61.677; St. Louis 65.627
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 4; 133
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 7 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (+7 1/2); Over

Game 735-736: Duke at Wake Forest (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 70.810; Wake Forest 55.388
Dunkel Line: Duke by 15 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: Duke by 13; 144
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-13); Over

Game 737-738: Central Florida at Memphis (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 61.440; Memphis 69.602
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 8; 127
Vegas Line: Memphis by 11; 132
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+11); Under

Game 739-740: TCU at Wyoming (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 56.123; Wyoming 64.920
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 9; 129
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 7; 124
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (-7); Over

Game 741-742: Loyola-Chicago at Detroit (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 49.701; Detroit 60.379
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 10 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Detroit by 13 1/2; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+13 1/2); Under

Game 743-744: WI-Green Bay at Youngstown State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 55.197; Youngstown State 58.852
Dunkel Line: Youngstown State by 3 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Youngstown State by 3; 134
Dunkel Pick: Youngstown State (-3); Under

Game 745-746: Wright State at Butler (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 51.409; Butler 58.973
Dunkel Line: Butler by 7 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Butler by 10 1/2; 117 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (+10 1/2); Over

Game 747-748: Illinois-Chicago at WI-Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 46.299; WI-Milwaukee 58.034
Dunkel Line: WI-Milwaukee by 11 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: WI-Milwaukee by 13; 126
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (+13); Under

Game 749-750: Weber State at Montana (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 56.644; Montana 63.188
Dunkel Line: Montana by 6 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Montana by 4 1/2; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montana (-4 1/2); Over

Game 751-752: Idaho State at Eastern Washington (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 43.671; Eastern Washington 51.718
Dunkel Line: Eastern Washington by 8; 133
Vegas Line: Eastern Washington by 10; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho State (+10); Under

Game 753-754: Northern Colorado at Portland State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 47.000; Portland State 55.517
Dunkel Line: Portland State by 8 1/2; 156
Vegas Line: Portland State by 7; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (-7); Over

Tony George

New Orleans Hornets +13.5

I am taking the Hornets plus the big points. With Kaman back at center for the Hornets they have covered 6 straight in their last 6 games, all of which he has played. I also like going against teams laying a huge number in the NBA right off the All Star break. Yes, Chicago will win, but double digits is huge in the NBA, and NO playing better ball with a low post presence.

Rob Vinciletti

Golden State Warriors vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers -5

The Pacers fit the Nice system below which has cashed the last 9 times since 1996 and play on home favorites with 4 or more days rest after having scored 100 or more on the road in their last game with no rest and 25 or less assists if the opponent scored 100 or more in their last game. This system is used specifically for occasions like back from the break where teams have been off for Multiple games. The Pacers are 11-4 straight up and to the spread here vs Golden St and already have a nice win over in Golden St earlier this season. Take the Pacers tonight.

BEN BURNS

Senators @ Bruins
PICK: Under 5.5

These teams just faced each other on Saturday, at Ottawa. The Bruins won that game by a score of 5-3. That high-scoring game (combined with the fact that the Senators have been on a lengthy "over" streak) has helped to create some extra value with the total this evening. The line is still 5.5, as it was on Saturday. However, we're now able to play the 'under' at a cheaper price than was previously available. (The price on that one was 5.5u15.)

Just because the first game of a "home and home series" is high-scoring doesn't mean that the second game also will be. In fact, the opposite is often true. The last time that the Bruins were involved in a "home and home series" was against the Leafs, a couple of months ago. The first game, at Toronto, produced nine goals. However, the second game, which was here at Boston, finished with only five, a 4-1 victory for the champs.

Boston's only other home and home series this season was vs. Montreal. In that one, the first game went "over" and the second went "under." That was also the case for the Sens' most recent home and home series. So, you can see, in these type of situations, the "tempo" often changes when the venue shifts.

This will be Boston's first home game in some time. In fact, the champs have only played four times here in February. Three of those four games finished with three or fewer combined goals, most recently a 3-0 loss vs. the Rangers on Valentine's Day. I won't be surprised if this one is also low-scoring. Consider going "Under" 5.5.

SEAN MURPHY

Minnesota @ L.A. Clippers
PICK: Minnesota +6.5

This is a revenge game for the Clippers after dropping a 101-98 decision at home against the T'Wolves back on January 20th, but I don't think that means a whole lot in this particular matchup.

The T'Wolves have reason to be confident coming out of the break, as they sit at .500 on the season, having won four of their last five games overall.

Minnesota hasn't showed its youth on the road, where it has posted a 7-7 SU record, to go along with an impressive 10-4 ATS mark. That win over the Clippers back in January was no fluke, and I suspect the T'Wolves will be eager to prove that on Tuesday.

It's interesting to note that Minnesota closed as a 4.5-point underdog in that game. We're getting a more favorable line tonight. While the Clippers were without Chris Paul for that one, they did have the services of Chauncey Billups. I actually feel that the T'Wolves are a significantly better team now than they were then. J.J. Barea, Michael Beasley, and Martell Webster all missed that game due to injuries.

The Clippers dropped two of their last three games prior to the break, and failed to deliver the cash in any of those contests. They've managed to win only three of their last 10 games by more than five points, so it's not as if they're in top form as the second half begins.

There's certainly a bit of a look-ahead in play for the Clippers tonight, as they'll embark on a six-game road trip beginning on Thursday in Sacramento.

Meanwhile, this is a statement game for the T'Wolves as they aim to get their four-game road trip off to a strong start.

I love the way the T'Wolves are playing at both ends of the floor, and really believe that they're still an undervalued commodity in the betting marketplace. The Clippers have made some money for us this season, but I don't see this as an ideal spot for a convincing win.

DAVID CHAN

New York Islanders @ Washington Capitals
PICK: Washington Capitals

The 26-28-8 New York Islanders stumble into Washington to take on the 31-26-5 Capitals.

Evgeni Nabokov is set to square off against Tomas Vokoun between the pipes.

The Isles are coming off a lacklustre 5-2 setback at Ottawa on Sunday.

John Tavares and PA Parenteau scored for New York; Nabokov made just 19 saves.

The Isles continue their spiral down the proverbial crapper; head coach Jack Capuano is visibly and verbally frustrated:

“We’ve got to take a little more pride in our game and get back to our foundation, where it was at the start of the year. Some of the guys should look in the mirror and know they could have worked a little harder tonight and been a little stronger on the puck at times,” Capuano said.

Washington has won two straight, including a convincing 4-2 victory at Toronto on Saturday.

Jeff Halpern and Alexander Semin both scored; Alex Ovechkin contributed a pair of assists.

Keith Aucoin and Marcus Johansson both scored as well.

“Tonight was a huge win for us,” defenseman Mike Green said. “It puts us back where we want to be and we’ve got to keep getting better from here. It’s been a rough go this year and we’ve got to make up some ground.”

The "double revenge factor" comes into play here, as New York won 5-3 at home on November 5th, and then 3-0 in Washington on January 17th.

You may want to consider laying the price on what will prove to be a decisive effort!

GUILLERMO SANCHEZ PEREZ

Detroit Red Wings @ Columbus Blue
PICK: Detroit Red Wings

The Wings are coming off a 4-3 loss to Colorado on Saturday. It was the second loss in a row at home for Detroit, after winning 23-straight. Jiri Hudler had two goals and an assist. Valtteri Filppula also tallied a score. Henrik Zetterberg contributed three assists. Goaltender Jimmy Howard made 23-stops. “It’s unacceptable to play like that, to be as poor as we were,” coach Mike Babcock said. “We had a rally in the third period, but for two games — and probably for three—we haven’t had much energy.”

The Blue Jackets are coming off a 4-2 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Rick Nash scored for Columbus, but it's unknown as of writing this whether or not the Blue Jackets captain will be in the lineup, as the veteran has asked to be traded; “When you’re on a losing team, changes happen,” Nash said. “It’s unfortunate because we have a tight group of guys but we realize it’s a business side of the game, too.”

(Update: Nash didn't end up getting traded after all; the asking price for him was too high. However, after his team "threw him under the bus," by telling the fans that he had requested a trade, I don't expect Nash to be "happy." The team could be a little disgruntled, as a result.)

Goaltender Curtis Sanford looked sharp until the third period when he let in three-goals in a span of 10-minutes.

The Wings are worth the price in this situation; they're definitely "hungry" after losing two straight at home; they're catching a team that has thrown in the towel, rebuilding for next season after already sending Jeff Carter to the Kings last week (and of course not to mention Nash's desire to leave the team, which will send both the city and the club into an uproar).

Lay it!

MATT FARGO

Xavier @ Saint Louis
PICK: Saint Louis -7

St. Louis is coming off a devastating loss on Saturday at Rhode Island, one of the worst teams in the Atlantic-10 Conference. The Billikens had their six-game winning streak snapped in the process but the good news is that it did not lose any ground to Temple which also went down in an upset on Saturday. The chances of making the NCAA Tournament are still good for St. Louis but another quality win won't hurt matters. The Billikens are 4-1 following a loss this season.

Xavier is coming off a much needed win on Saturday as it defeated Richmond at home. It has been a very disappointing season for the Musketeers after a very strong start as it has gone just 10-10 after an 8-0 start following that infamous brawl against Cincinnati. They clearly have not been the same team since then as trying to get a winning run together has been difficult as it is 4-6 over its last 10 games following a victory. Xavier has lost three straight road games and is now 5-6 on the highway this season.

Despite a rough effort Saturday, defense is still the name of the game for the Billikens. They have held their opponents to 50 points or less on 10 occasions so far this season and in addition, teams have scored less than 40 three times. They lead the conference in scoring defense, yielding an average of 59.9 ppg in conference games, nearly five points better than the average of second-place St. Bonaventure. St. Louis also leads the conference in shooting defense and are allowing just 37.3 percent shooting at home.

With just two regular season games remaining, St. Louis has not even secured a first round bye for the Atlantic-10 Tournament so it needs a big bounceback performance. It is in good position here as this is the final regular season home game with Senior Night festivities taking place. The Billikens are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 while Xavier is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600.

Chip Chirimbes

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons +4

After a horrific start the Pistons have turned things around at home going 8-1-1 ATS and are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Pistons are now 10-7-1 at home for the year while Philadelphia has dropped six straight ATS and their last five games straight-up. After a quick start the loss of center Spencer Hawes has slowed the 76ers down and he's not expected to return to action for another few weeks. Elton Brand is also doubtful for Tuesday's contest and that give the Pistons the edge they need at home.

Jim Feist

Duke vs Wake Forest
Pick: Duke

Duke has a showdown with rival North Carolina on deck Saturday with an ACC title on the line -- if the Blue Devils take care of business this game, so expect them to be focused. The Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a losing record. Wake Forest (13-15) has fallen badly, 4-10 in the ACC, and has beaten only BC (twice) and Georgia Tech the last 13 games. The Blue Devils are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the favorite is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Play Duke!

EZWINNERS

Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5

The Celtics staggered into the All-Star break with their fifth straight loss and seventh loss in eight games last Wednesday, falling 119-104 at Oklahoma City despite 23 points each from Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett and 21 points from Ray Allen. The five game skid matches their longest since the franchise brought the "Big Three" together. This young Cleveland team will put up a fight and the Celtics can't be trusted laying points on the road. Boston's has lost 16 out of their last 22 road games, including playoffs, dating back to last season. The Cavaliers are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take the points.

David Banks

Florida / Vanderbilt Over

Both the Florida Gators (22-7, 11-12-1 ATS) and Vanderbilt Commodores (20-9, 13-12 ATS) will attempt to bounce back from disappointing defeats over the weekend when the SEC rivals collide for the second time this season on Super Tuesday; tip-off from Memorial Gym in Nashville is set to go live on ESPN & ESPN3.com at 9:00 ET.

Only a second place finish in the SEC is now a viable option for the Gators who trail the front running Kentucky Wildcats by four-games with only two games remaining on their regular season schedule. It would have been close to impossible to overtake the Wildcats in the standings, but losing at Georgia over the weekend turned that possibility into a pipe dream. The shocking loss snapped Floridas three-game win streak (2-1 ATS) and dropped them to just 4-6 SU & 5-5 ATS away from the Stephen C. OConnell Center on the year. Florida better go out and find its offense for tonights match-up, as Coach Billy Donovans kids have scored an average of just 70.8 PPG their L/5 games; down nearly seven-points from their 77.7 PPG seasonal average. To date, the Gators possess road wins within the conference at South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama, and Arkansas teams Vanderbilt stands 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS against and won by an average of nearly 10 points per game.

Though the Commodores lost for the second time this season against Kentucky over the weekend, they can hang their heads high knowing they challenged the Wildcats in both of their regular season meetings. They fell by an 83-74 final count but covered as 11.5-point underdogs in a game they led by a point at halftime (37-36). Coach Kevin Stallings has a very talented and experienced squad at his disposal, and many would be wise to advance the Dores deep into this years NCAA Tournament. Guard John Jenkins is the leader of the offense that currently checks in ranked 49th in the country in scoring offense (73.9 PPG) and proven to be deadly from beyond the arc in converting 39.8 percent of their long range shots. The Commodores check in 5-2 SU & 3-4 ATS as a host in SEC play on the year, and just missed out on covering their third straight as a home chalk the last time they played in front of the hometown faithful against South Carolina.

Florida earned a hard fought 73-65 win in these teams first go round in Gainesville earlier this season, and managed the pointspread cover from the charity stripe in the games closing moments. The win was the teams third straight both SU & ATS in the recent series. The Gators have registered a pair of ATS covers in three tries as underdogs with the lone defeat coming against top ranked Kentucky to date, while the Commodores have covered five of their L/6 following a SU defeat. The over has cashed seven of the L/8 times these rivals collided in Nashville.

Goodfella

Detroit Pistons +4.5

Double in season revenge for a Pistons team, who I see as undervalued (still for now) and the 76ers are much more dangerous when at home, & actually lost their L/5 going into the All-Star break. Pistons are (4-2 SU L/6) at HOME, witth a couple of nice wins over playoff quality teams, and they also played the Heat, Hawks and Spurs all very close, losing by; 3, 4, & 6 in OT to the Hawks) recently at home, too. I think we have a definite live home dog here with Detroit and getting +4/+4.5 is a rock solid wager.

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia +118 over SAN JOSE

Aside from trying to beat a quality team after returning home from a nine-game trip, the Sharks appear to be in a serious funk. While San Jose managed a couple of wins on that trip, it could have been a 1-8 expedition after barely holding on against the Maple Leafs. When it lost 4-3 to Minnesota on Sunday, it was the first game in a dozen that the Wild had scored more than three times. Goaltending and defense has been weak and there's a good chance Logan Couture is going to be out for a couple of games after he left Sunday's game with a lower body injury. The Sharkies 2-7 trip from hell got even worse on Sunday when their plane home was grounded by mechanical problems. Instead of returning home, everybody was forced to stay an extra night in St. Paul. They returned home Monday and every player will tell you that travel day is NOT a true day off. The Flyers come in raring to go while playing some outstanding hockey. Philly’s past three opponents faced a barrage of shots (55, 35 and 45) as the Flyers’ offense is playing at warp speed. Philadelphia has scored four or more in four of its last five games and that includes seven on Buffalo, four on Pittsburgh and five on Calgary. Not only are they superior to San Jose but they're in a better state of mind and in a much better situational spot too. Easy choice for us here Play: Philadelphia +118 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Islanders +165 over WASHINGTON

This line is completely out of whack. Before winning its past two games, the Capitals couldn't get out of their own way when they won four of 15 games. Had this game been played before they beat the reeling Canadiens and Maple Leafs, Washington would've been about -130 favorite here. This is still the same overvalued team that has been losing regularly since opening the year 7-0. They did nothing at the trade deadline to improve. The Islanders are always dangerous when taking back a big number. They're coming off a misleading 5-2 loss in Ottawa on Sunday. They dominated the first period and could've been up 2 or 3-0 had it not been for the outstanding goaltending of highly touted call-up Robin Lehner. It was 3-2 late in the third when Ottawa scored again and added an empty netter to make the final look much worse than it was. To give you an idea of how live a pooch this is, the Islanders have lost two in a row just one time since January 17. In terms or true value, win or lose, it doesn't get much better than this. Play: N.Y. Islanders +167 (Risking 2 units).

Florida +120 over TORONTO

The free-falling Maple Leafs are simply too fragile right now to be spotting anything. Sitting pretty with a great chance to make the playoffs three weeks ago, the Leafs have one OT win against Edmonton in their last nine games. Toronto is now in 10th place and just three points ahead of both Tampa Bay and Buffalo. On Saturday night, they fell behind Washington 2-0 before the game was four minutes old. After the game, Ron Wilson said, “their goalie made some saves while ours did not”. Instead of saying something along the lines of, “we lose as a team and win as a team”, Wilson continues to throw his delicate goaltenders under the bus and he continues to pay for it. The Panthers come in winners of two straight and picking up points in three straight. Florida played under the radar for the first six weeks of the season. The Panthers ran into some injury problems in December and January and the poor results that accompanied them. This team is healthy again and they've dominated play the last three games, outshooting the opposition by counts of 32-20, 44-28 and 43-28. The Panthers are first in the Southeast, two points ahead of Winnipeg but with four games in hand and three points up on the Caps. They can really solidify their position even more with a win against a sinking ship and anything but that would be a surprise. Play: Florida +120 (Risking 2 units).

Ottawa +170 over BOSTON

The Bruins return home from a six-game trip and that's usually a vulnerable spot. It was a long trip but it sure wasn't a tough one, as three of the six games were against Montreal, Minnesota and Buffalo. They also played in Ottawa on Saturday night and beat the Sens 5-3. Ottawa played a great third period and hopefully they can carry that over here. They want this one badly, as they've lost to Boston eight straight and have had their fill of it. More notably, they're back to playing great hockey. Ottawa is 6-1-1 in its last eight games and has outscored its opponents 36-18. All season long, the marketplace has not been giving the Senators the respect they deserve and once again we'll look to take advantage of an overpriced team against them. It looks like Robin Lehner will get the call in net for the Senators but don't let that deter you, as the kid is NHL ready and has the confidence of his mates. Play: Ottawa +167 (Risking 2 units).

Montreal +106 over TAMPA BAY

Have no interest in laying anything with a Lightning team that is completely banged up and that returns home from a three-game trip with no hope for this season. GM Steve Yzerman did some house cleaning over the past few days by trading some key role players to solidify its weak defense. Yzerman knows this team as is, was going nowhere and he virtually threw in the towel over the trade deadline. With Vincent LeCavalier out along with a few other players, the Bolts are left with nothing other than Steve Stamkos and Marty St. Louis. Stamkos has 75 points, St. Louis has 58 points and then there's a serious and dramatic dropoff among active players to 31 points and 17 points. Stop those two and the Lightning are hopeless. There's also a flu bug going through the dressing room and with the injuries and flu bug, the Bolts have about five minor league call-ups for this game. The Habs aren't very appealing either. They've dropped four in a row and have failed to score more than two goals in any of those games. However, they have a big edge in net and despite losing, they at least bring it almost every game. Regardless of anything, this one is all about taking back a tag against the least appealing chalk in the entire league. Play: Montreal +106 (Risking 2 units).