SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +7½ over MILWAUKEE
The Bucks are much more appealing taking back some weight as opposed to laying it. Without Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee is a poor rebounding team and that was evident again in its last game when its leading rebounder was Carlos Delfino with five. The Bucks have covered just 13 of 33 games. They also play the Celtics tomorrow after playing Chicago just before the break. Laying significant points after a six day hiatus with a club that has dropped six of seven is a big risk not worth taking. The Wizards don't instil fear into their opponents but signs of improvement are there. With some focus and effort, this team is more dangerous than most believe. JaVale McGee, Nick Young and John Wall are three outstanding young talents that have the potential to lead this team to some upsets over the second half and this is one in which that could certainly occur. Play: Washington +7½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Bryan Power
Washington @ Milwaukee
PICK: Milwaukee -7.5
There aren't many worse things that you could do to your bankroll than bet the Washington Wizards on the road. The Wiz are 18-39 ATS L57 road games having been an underdog in all but one of those contests. They are just 7-19 ATS when taking points this season. The Break probably came at a good time for this team as they lost and failed to cover their last four games, dropping them to 2-9 ATS last 11. Milwaukee hasn't been much better, but they are a cut above Washington. They destroyed the Wizards by 21 here earlier in the season. That's been pretty much in line w/ their typical road performances as their point differential is a staggering -11.8 points per game. Lay the points.
Stephen Nover
Washington @ Milwaukee
PICK: Under 200.5
Everything points to an under in this matchup, yet the oddsmaker has set a surprising high total.
The Wizards are averaging less than 92 points per game. They scored 88 versus Phoenix in their last road game.
The Bucks are putting up 94.5 points per game. The team's met early in the season and there were 183 points scored with Milwaukee winning, 102-81.
John Wall has shot very poorly in his four-game career against the Bucks making just 29.3 percent from the field. Both teams figure to be rusty, too, from the long layoff following the All-Star break.
The under has cashed in 15 of the Wizards' last 22 road contests. The Bucks are 23-9-1 to the under when laying points at home.
Teddy Covers
Utah @ Sacramento
Play: Sacramento -3
The entire city of Sacramento got a major boost over the All Star break, with a new arena deal for the Kings finally getting worked out after years of negotiations and several threatened moves. Expect a particularly enthusiastic crowd this evening, giving the Kings an extra edge on what has been a fairly mediocre home court so far this season.
But the Kings extra crowd support is only one piece of the equation here. Another piece is Utah’s continued struggles. The Jazz stumbled into the All Star break, falling into last place in the Northwest Division following a 3-10 slide in their last 13 games. Utah blew a 16 point second half lead at Minnesota in their final game before the break, dropping their road record to 3-11 SU, 5-9 ATS. Their three point defense has been particularly problematic, allowing 50% shooting from beyond the arc in their last three ballgames.
Sacramento has the perimeter firepower to take advantage of that Utah defensive weakness. And Kings head coach Keith Smart has shortened his bench of late, limiting the playing time of struggling rookie Jimmer Fredette and struggling reserve JJ Hickson. A tighter rotation is a good thing for a team with a solid eight man rotation, but without much quality depth behind their core crew. With home wins in recent weeks over the likes of Oklahoma City, Portland, Golden State and Indiana, look for the Kings to ride tonight’s emotional wave to a comfortable victory over the struggling Jazz. Take Sacramento.
Craig Trapp
Xavier vs. Saint Louis
Play: Xavier +8
Muskies have all the pieces to do damage in March Madness but right now they have last few games as must wins if they want to get in. STL is a lock for March and might not play with the same intensity that XU will on Tuesday. Very close game but think Holloway is difference as XU pulls out underdog win.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Boston/ Cleveland Over 183.5: This is not a low OU line for Boston games, but it is a pretty low OU line for Cleveland games this year. In their last 10 games the Cavs have had one OU line under 185 and that was understandable as it was vs New Orleans, who can't score. The Teams did combine for 173 points in that game. Still, Cleveland home games have averaged 191.5 ppg, and 7 of the 8 on this current homestand have hit at least 185 points. Boston road games have been about 10 ppg higher scoring than their home games, as they have averaged 185.3 ppg. Boston has had problems scoring this year, but I believe the break will help them re-energize and get that offense rolling. They have a lot of weapons and should take advantage of a Cleveland team that allows 97.1 ppg at home. Boston allows under 84 ppg at home, but on the road they have struggled some, allowing 95.9 ppg and that should allow a Cleveland team that averages 94.4 ppg at home hit at least the lower 90's. Boston plays much weaker defense on the road, while the Cavs don't play much defense at home. Both teams should be able to hit at least 92 points in this one.
MILWAUKEE -7.5 over Washington: The Wizards are just 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings and just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs the Central Division. The Wizards lost the first meeting here by 21 points and after their huge upset over Portland on the road they have since gone 0-4 and have been out scored by 14 ppg in those games. The Wizards are just 3-13 on the road this year and have been outscored by 11.8 ppg in those games. Milwaukee has been reeling of late, and they are just 7-8 at home, but they are normally a very good team at home and the break should have helped them refocus. Each of Milwaukee's last 4 wins here vs Washington have come by at least 13 points and while their offense has sputtered of late they should get it going tonight vs a Washington team that has allowed 108.8 ppg in their last 5 games overall and 101.9 ppg on the road this year. Milwaukee should roll here.
Philadelphia/ Detroit Over 182.5: This is a huge game for Philly and they will really have to start winning with their offense, and their defense can't do it all. This is a good team for the Sixers offense to get going against as they have scored 96 and 95 points in the two games vs Detroit this year, plus the Pistons do allow 95.2 ppg at home this year. Philly did hold Detroit to 73 and 74 points in the two games, but the Pistons have turned the corner on offense of late as they have averaged 99.3 ppg in their last 6 games and they have averaged 98.2 ppg in their last 5 at home, which has included games vs tough defensive teams like San Antonio (scored 95) and Boston (scored 96). Grante a low OU line is warranted in Philly games because they play such tough defense, but their road games have averaged 187.5 ppg, while Detroit's home games have averaged 187.2 ppg (193.8 in their last 5 at home). This game should come real close to 190 points.
2 UNIT PLAYS
INDIANA -5.5 over Golden State: The Pacers have won 4 in a row and granted 2 of the wins were vs the Bobcats, but they were still both blowout wins and the 4 game win streak gave this team confidence heading into the second half. The Pacers have gone 10-4 at home and have outscored their opponents by 6.2 pg on their home floor. The warriors are just 4-8 on the road and have played really bad defense away from home, allowing 103.2 ppg in those road games, while the Pacers average 98 ppg at home. The Warriors have averaged 99 ppg away from home, but Indiana allows just 91.9 ppg on their home floor. A confident Indiana team should win this one easily.
Minnesota +6.5 over LA CLIPPERS: The Twolves are playing well right now as they have won 4 of their last 5, with that lone loss coming in OT at Denver. Minnesota already has as many wins as last year (17) and they are 19-15 ATS in their games this year overall, including 10-4 ATS on the road. The Clippers will be a tpough team to beat in the second half, but the distractions of the All-Star break may not have this team as focused as they should be in this first game back. Look for Minnesota to keep this one close.
1 UNIT PLAY
Washington/ Milwaukee Over 200: Milwaukee's has gone 11-3-1 to the Over in their home games this year. The Bucks defense has allowed 100.5 ppg in their last 10 games, while Washington has allowed 108.8 ppg in their lats 5 games. I see at least a 110 -95 Milwaukee win here.
Steve Janus
Indiana +3
Indiana is definitely worth a look as a 3-point home underdog against red-hot Michigan St. There is no denying the Hoosiers play their best basketball at home. They are 16-1 at Assembly Hall. The bigger the opponent the better Indiana seems to play at home, as they stunned a couple of highly-ranked teams in Kentucky and Ohio State. You simply can't look at Michigan State's 80-65 win at home over Indiana and assume they are going to easily win this game. The Big Ten is one of the toughest places to win on the road, especially when you have a team as talented as Indiana.
Michigan State has recently put together a string of road wins against Ohio State, Purdue and Minnesota, but you can't ignore the fact that the Spartans lost at Michigan and Northwestern in conference play.
While Indiana will have their focus locked in on Michigan State, its going to be extremely hard for the Spartans to not look ahead to their huge game against Ohio State on Saturday.
Indiana is 21-9 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997 and are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Freddy Wills
Connecticut vs. Providence
Play: Connecticut -3½
Providence has struggled to shoot many times this season and coming off a win I think they are satisfied despite going into their last home game of the season. They face a UCONN team that’s hungry and can’t have any other slip ups if they want to go to the NCAA Tournament. That means winning their final games and they can’t just squeak by they need an impressive win here tonight. I think they are a bad match up for Providence because they shoot mostly from inside the perimeter with just 26% of their FGA from three point range. UCONN is the #1 2 point defensive team in the Big East and #4 nationally. They nearly beat Syracuse despite a poor shooting game from Jeremy Lamb. I like what Boatright has started to do from the perimeter to give Uconn a #2 outside scoring option. Expect him to continue that which will make the inside game of the Huskies with Drummond that much more dangerous come conference tournament time.
Andrew Lange
Florida at Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt -3.5
Obviously I'd like to see Florida off of a win rather than an embarrassing 76-62 loss at Georgia but I still feel like this is a prime spot for Vanderbilt. It is senior night for the Commodores as a group of six players (86 career wins) will play their final home game at Memorial Gym. The key to this game though is not senior night or the revenge factor but in fact an injury. The Gators will be without forward Will Yeguete who is out for the rest of the season with a foot injury. Yeguete doesn't get much attention because he is one of the team's last options on offense (4.4 ppg). But his impact on the defensive end of the floor cannot be understated. In Florida's win over Vandy earlier this season, the Gators unleashed a full court press and forced 17 turnovers in large part because of Yeguete. Without him, and on the road, I don't think Billy Donovan will be able to apply the amount of pressure he would like. Note that back on February 11, Yeguete left the game against Tennessee early due to a head injury and the Gators ended up losing 75-70. In the loss to Georgia, he was out with a foot injury. With Kentucky locking up the SEC title, this game appears much more important for the home side. With a big effort, the ‘Dores should come away with the ATS victory.
NHL Predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning -112
The Canadiens who have lost 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 games were a little more quiet on trade deadline day then most would have thought, but they did unload Andrei Kostitsyn who had been one of the key pieces to the Habs team. Will Kostitsyn, Gill, and Cammalleri gone the Habs will look to some younger players for the rest of the season. Montreal is just 24-29-10 on the season and 13-15-2 on the road. The Tampa Bay Lightning were one of the biggest trade deadline participants acquiring three defenceman. The Lightning are 28-28-6 on the season, but have played well to a 18-9-2 record on home ice. Mathieu Garon, who has been the much better of the two Lightning goalies, is the confirmed starter for tonight's game. Tampa Bay has won 7 of their last 10 home games, including three straight. These two teams have met twice this season, each taking a game at home. Note that the Habs have won just 8 of their last 26 games as an underdog. Both teams will have a new look to their lineups, and I think that the Lightning will be more comfortable playing on home ice. The Habs have scored just 4 goals in their last 4 games and I can't see them outscoring Tampa tonight. Take the Lightning.
Jack Jones
Sacramento Kings -3
The city of Sacramento is buzzing right now. The city, the Sacramento Kings and the NBA announced a tentative deal Monday to finance a new arena that would keep the team in California's capital for the long haul.
There's no question these players want to put on a show in front of what will be a very rowdy home crowd tonight in support of their Kings. It should be a great atmosphere, and I look for underrated Sacramento to come away with a 4-plus point home victory tonight.
Utah played a very easy schedule in the early going, but their true colors have shown of late once their schedule got a little tougher. The Jazz have lost eight of their last 10 games, and one of their two wins came at home against the lowly Washington Wizards.
The Kings have played an absolutely brutal schedule in the first half. Sacramento has played 21 road games compared to just 12 home games. They have been solid at home, going 7-5 SU & 7-5 ATS in Sacramento. Meanwhile, the Jazz are just 3-11 SU & 5-9 ATS on the road this year. They have played 18 home games compared to 14 on the road.
The Jazz are 10-28 ATS in their last 38 games following a ATS win. Utah is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Jazz are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Kings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall, including 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference foes. Sacramento is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings with Utah. Bet the Kings Tuesday.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Toronto Raptors +9.5
The Raptors have quietly been playing some very good basketball and are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a result. During this stretch, they played Miami to a 6-point game, the LA Lakers to a 2-point game, New York to a 3-point game and San Antonio to a 7-point game. Houston is 14-4 at home on the season but its average winning margin in those games is just 6.6 points. The Raptors are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. We'll take the points as Houston is being overvalued this evening.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Sacramento Kings -3.5
The Kings have been one of the best investments in the NBA this month. They are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games and should be able to build on this record with Utah coming to town. The Jazz are a lousy 3-11 on the highway this season with an average losing margin of 9.6 points. Utah is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings in this series. Bet the Kings.
Dave Price
1 Unit Indiana +2.5
Indiana has been one of the best home teams in the country this season. It is 16-1 at home with wins over No. 1 Kentucky, No. 10 Ohio State and No. 13 Michigan. While Michigan State looks to be the best team in the Big Ten, it has been far from invincible on the road. The Spartans are just 3-3 in their last 6 away from home. The Spartans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less while the Hoosiers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The home team is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings, and the Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Indiana. Take the Hoosiers.
JEFF BENTON
Your Tuesday freebie is the Golden State Warriors plus the points at Indiana.
The Pacers are a solid 10-4 straight up at home, but against the spread Indiana has dropped eight of their last nine on their home hardwood.
Indiana went to the break with four straight wins under their belts, but the line tonight feels a little inflated to me, and Golden State has proven to be a tough out this season under first-year coach Mark Jackson, as the Warriors have been able to cover seven of their eleven tries when installed as the road underdog this year.
Must not read too much into Indy's four-game upswing, as two of those four wins came against the lowly Bobcats, so it is doubtful to me that the Pacers can pull away from the gritty Warriors.
Season series numbers show the teams with a dead-even 5-5 straight up split the last ten times the clubs have played. Look for this one to come right down to the wire.
Warriors plus the points the play tonight.
2♦ GOLDEN STATE