MATT RIVERS
Now let's get to a free pick for Tuesday, and I am backing the Vanderbilt Commodores in a major revenge spot to dump the visiting Florida Gators.
Florida won all three series meetings a year ago and promptly extendedthe winning streak to four in a row with a 73-65 early February win and cover over the Commodores in Gainesville.
Time for Vandy to put the brakes on the series skid, as the 'Dores return home to Nashville following a hard-fought loss in Lexington on Saturday. They fell shy against No. 1 Kentucky, but were able to go toe-to-toe with the 'Cats for the better part of that contest.
Florida laid a big-fat egg at Georgia over the weekend, losing to the Bulldogs by double-digits, as Billy Donovan's team has now split its last six games, and has failed to cover in four of those outings.
The Gators' road mark is just 6-6 both straight up and against the spread for the year, and as we have seen, when their three-balls are not dropping they are in trouble.
Vandy needs to close the regular season strong so it can maintain a seeding on the higher side when it comes to selection Sunday on March 11th, so I am backing the Commodores minus the points to snap their four-game series losing streak to the Gators.
4♦ VANDERBILT
Fairway Jay
Kansas State at Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M +4.5
Last home game for the Aggies and two senior starters. Texas A&M is trying to get to .500 and become eligible for postseason play. However, they have struggled down the stretch going 1-7 SU including their recent 0-3 slide. As noted in my Last Home Game blog and other supporting situations, Texas A&M (13-15) should come with plenty of energy and effort playing with revenge against Kansas State following a 64-53 loss in Manhattan earlier this month. Note that two of the Aggies top players missed that contest and both forward Khris Middleton and guard Dash Harris will play tonight in the rematch. That low possession loss to K-State is common for the Aggies, but their defense remains solid through their struggles allowing just 63 ppg in league play (#2) and 43% field goal (#3). Kansas State does hold a +7 per game rebounding advantage over Texas A&M for the season, but as often discussed, the stats can be offset by the situation and emotion with greater energy and effort by the home team. Texas A&M is 55-12 SU on this court the last four years and get a Kansas State team that has been inconsistent and comes in off a home loss to Iowa State as a 7.5-point favorite. Good situation and opponent for the home team to rise to the occasion as they push for the postseason party.
Lenny Del Genio
Loyola Chicago at Detroit
Play: Loyola Chicago
This is a first round matchup in the Horizon League Tournament. Underdog Loyola has double revenge from the regular season where it lost both games by double digits despite controlling tempo. Detroit has been overrated in the marketplace for much of the season. They are the worst defensive team in the conference and just 10-18 ATS for the year. That includes 5-12 ATS as a favorite; 0-6 ATS when laying 12.5 or more at home. All three of Loyola's losses to end the year came by single digits. Take Loyola (IL).
Hollywood Sports
TCU at Wyoming
Prediction: TCU
The Horned Frogs (17-11) have won two straight games after their upset 83-64 victory versus New Mexico on Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog. TCU should build off this momentum here as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games following a straight-up win. The Horned Frogs should ready to be competitive in this one as they have covered the spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And TCU has covered 11 of their last 16 games on the road. Additionally, the Horned Frogs have covered 4 straight games as an underdog in the 7-12.5 point range. Wyoming (19-9) snapped their four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 64-54 win versus Boise State as a 7-point favorite. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Horned Frogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Lastly, Wyoming has failed to cover the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings with TCU. Look for the Horned Frogs to play this one very close. Take the points with TCU here.
Hollywood Sports
Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Sacramento Kings
Sacramento (11-22) tips off their second-half of the season back at home after a six-game road trip that ended with their 115-107 win at Washington as a 3-point underdog. The Kings should build off their momentum here as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. Sacramento has also covered the spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games against fellow Western Conference opponents, the Kings have covered the spread in 7 of these contests. Utah (15-17) begins the second-half of the season on a three-game losing streak after their 100-98 loss at Minnnesota last Wednesday. The Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not playing for at least three days. Utah has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog of under five points. The Jazz play down to their competition as well given that they have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage lower than 40%. Lay the points with Sacramento in this one.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Kansas State/ Texas A&M Over 121: The Aggies were to be contenders in the Big 12, but that hasn't panned out and it's mostly due to their offense that has racked up just 57.4 ppg in Big 12 play this year. The Aggies haven't been a bad scoring team at home, as they have averaged 65.1 ppg overall and that includes putting up 67.4 ppg in their last 7 Big 12 home games. Overall this year all 8 of Aggie Big 12 home games have hit at least 121 points, with an average of 132 ppg being scored. KSU has played some lower scoring games of late thanks to solid play at the defensive end, but that defense has struggled some on the road of late, as they have allowed 68.8 ppg in their last 4 away from home. On offense Kansas state has been that bad away from home as they have averaged 66.1 ppg away overall, including 68.1 ppg in their last 7 Big 12 road games, and their Big 12 road games overall have averaged 131.4 ppg. This should be a bit of a fast paced game with around 130 points being scored.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Michigan State -2.5 over INDIANA: The Hoosiers have been impressive at home this year with a 16-1 mark that as included wins vs Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio State, but I feel they are up against in this one. In their last game vs Minnesota, the Hoosiers played an awesome defensive game and they played with great intensity in that game, but coming up with that kind of intensity in BB games is not easy for a young team to do, especially when your playing a State team that needs to continue to win if they hope to get a number 1 seed in the Big Dance. The Spartans have lost just 1 of their last 9 games and that a 1 point loss at Illinois, in which Green was injured for much of the game for them. The Spartans have now won 7 in a row since that loss, with 6 of those wins being by DD and their defense has been spectacular, allowing just 51.3 ppg in their last 8 games. A win here will give the Spartans the Big 10 Title and put them one step closer to grabbing a No.1 seed in the NCAA Tourney. This young Indiana squad may hang for about 3 quarters of this game, but their is just too much defense on the side of the Spartans for them to stay close for the whole game. The Last 10 minutes will belong to Sparty.
TCU +8 Over WYOMING: Granted TCU struggled on the road vs San Diego State and New Mexico, But that was also earlier in the season and they have been playing much better since then. in their last 5 games the Horned Frogs have gone 4-1 and those wins have included wins over New Mexico and UNLV and the last time these teams played, TCU won by 6. Wyoming does not come into this game playing well as they have won just 1 of their last 5 games and 3 of their last 9 games. The Defense for the Cowboys has been solid all year, but it has been their offense that has abandoned them of late as they have averaged just 51.8 ppg in their last 5 games. TCU has struggled at the defensive end, but it has been better of late as they have allowed just 63.7 ppg in their last 3 games. TCU has a big edge on offense, as they have averaged 69.5 ppg on the road and 77.8 ppg in their last 5 games overall. 8 points is just too high when you have teams that are headed in the opposite directions and the dog is the team that is playing better.
2 UNIT PLAYS
VANDERBILT -3.5 over Florida: Google News Play. Gonna look to the home team in this one. Sure they are off a tough battle with Kentucky, but they did lose that game and still have a ton to play for. Florida is off a bad loss to Georgia and I see it hard for them to regroup in this one vs a much tougher team. The Gators have averaged just 62 ppg in their last 6 games vs teams not named Arkansas (they put up 98 in that one) and it wont get any easier tonight vs a Vandy team that allows just 64.1 ppg on 42.5% shooting. The Gators have been pretty solid on defense overall, but on the road they have struggled some as they have allowed 70.4 ppg on 46.5% shooting away from home. I feel at home the Commodores will shake off that loss to Kentucky and win this one by 7 or 8.
UConn/ Providence Over 137: UConn needs to push the ball to be effective on offense and i'm sure the Friars will allow them to. Providence have struggled to score of late, but UConn has allowed 73.1 ppg in their last 6 games, so they should be able to get their offense going in this one. The Huskies do need to run to be effective and they have been a bit better of late as they have averaged 70.6 ppg in their last 5 games. That number should not go down here vs a Providence team that has allowed 75.4 ppg in their last 10 games. Both teams have an excellent shot at 70 points in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
BUTLER -10.5 over Wright State: The Bulldogs kinda threw in the towel vs Valpo the other night, but this team has still played well down the stretch as they have won 5 of their last last 6 games. For them it has been a defense that has allowed just 55.6 ppg in their last 6 games. That is not good for a Wright State team that has averaged just 54 ppg on the road and 56.9 ppg in their last 9 overall. Butler's only shot at returning to the Dance is by winning their conference tournament and they will get off to a good start tonight, behind another solid defensive effort.
Black Widow
1* Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves are clearly one of the most improved teams in the league this season. At 17-17, they are certainly in the running for a playoff spot in the stacked Western Conference. The Timberwolves should not be catching 6.5 points tonight against a Los Angeles Clippers team they already beat 101-98 on the road as a 4.5-point underdog in their only meeting this season on January 20th. Minnesota is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, with their only loss coming by 2 points in overtime at Denver. The Clippers have just been mediocre since losing Chauncey Billups for the season to injury. Los Angeles is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season. Minnesota is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as an underdog this season. The Timberwolves are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games. Take Minnesota and the points.
Nelly
Cleveland + over Boston
The Cavaliers and Celtics have faced off twice already this season with the road team winning narrowly in both match-ups in late January. Cleveland won 88-87 in Boston and the Celtics won 93-90 in Cleveland two days later. Boston has endured a very tough schedule of late and entered the break with losses in seven of the last eight games. This will technically be a fifth consecutive road game for the Celtics, and though the All Star Break changes the situation a bit, it will still mean a hectic travel stretch. Boston is just 4-9 S/U on the road this season including losing each of the last five road games. Boston is just 3-11 ATS in the last 14 games overall and just 5-8 ATS in road games for the season. While Cleveland looks headed towards another losing season the Cavaliers have been a respectable foe this year. With 13 wins the Cavaliers are not far from eclipsing last season's 19-win mark and while the team was outscored by an average of nine points per game last season they have been outscored by less than four points per game this year. While Boston's recent scheduling stretch has been challenging for the year the Celtics have faced one the easiest rated schedules in the league and the Cavaliers have two wins versus top ten teams compared to only one for Boston. Cleveland has recent home wins over Dallas, the Clippers, and Indiana so this is a team that can compete, led by rookie Kyrie Irving. The injury to Anderson Varejao has been costly for Cleveland but the underdog has covered in seven of the last ten meetings in this series and the Celtics appear overvalued in what could be a difficult situation.
Free NBA release for 2/28: Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 over the LA Clippers. We like Minnesota to at least keep it close in LA tonight. The Timberwolves enter this game 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games. They are also one of the most profittable underdogs in the NBA this year, going 14-5 ATS when catching points. Minnesota not only covered just over a month ago in LA against the Clips, but won that meeting straight up as a 4.5 point dog. And that game came against a healthier LA Clippers bunch. Tonight they face a Clippers team without Chauncey Billups (Achilles), and they're just 4-5 ATS since losing him. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these clubs, and the road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12. Minnesota is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games when catching 5.0-10.5 points. LA is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 3 or more days of rest. We'll take the road dog here, Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5. Our free plays are 167-90-1 all-time. Sign up at www.iseewinners.com to receive the best free basketball picks via email. Thank you and best of luck tonight.
JIMMY THE GENT
WEBER STATE +5 ... for those that dont know, ive been a "big sky" follower for the last 5 years, this line has me befuddled ? just dont see how a team with a 10% ft differential is getting more than 3 points in a battle of two teams tied for the title, the winner of this match will win the conference and have home court throughout. Montana does have a huge homecourt avantage in this game as weber st is 0-2 ats at Dahlberg Arena the last two visits , Montana is 11-3 ats after a conference game this year, however i strongly feel that this is the year for WEBER ST as poor as they are 1-3 ats as a dog, the 3 losses were against out of conf teams such as BYU,CAL,ST MARYS and they lost all 3, i still think they can cover the +5 tonight. Both teams are riding winning streaks like no other,WEBER coming in off 7 wins in a row and 17 of 18,montana has won 11 in a row and also won 17 of 18,(there sole loss was against these same wildcats back on 1/14 as +5 road dogs), so these are the cream of the crop in the big sky. I think the Grizzlies will find it tough to contain Damian Lilliard who is the best player in the conf and i would put him in my top 20 nationally, the kid does it all, and i really think he will propel his team to victory in this final game of the regular season. If it comes down to free throws bank on WEBER ST making theirs as they shoot a crazy 81.2 %
THE PLAY IS WEBER STATE +5
DUKE-WAKE FOREST UNDER 144 - recent memory suggest that perhaps the blue devils could be looking ahead to the finale against north carolina, so there might be a little value in taking wake +13, but the oddsmakers already accounted for that in the line, normally this would be a 18-20 point spread if it was early january like it was when duke pasted the deacons by 18 this year. the real value however is in the under 144, as wake forest is 5-12 UNDER AS A UNDERDOG and 1-6 UNDER AS A HOME DOG. does duke get caught looking ahead ?
DUKE-WAKE UNDER 144 IS THE PLAY.
UCF +11.5 ...rootin and tootin for the dog here in this match up, it might be senior night at fedex forum in memphis, but this team just does not respond well after scoring 80+ points in the previous game (where they just trounced marshall 87-67 this past saturday), they have gone a dreadful 1-7 ats this year and 4-17 ats l3y , last time they had an 80+ point win was in tulane winning 82-64, they then responded to a home game next time out losing outright 58-60. Ucf has made a tremendous turnaround this year and are in the thick of things with the confernce tourney looming,with two league games remaining, UCF has already topped its Conference USA victory total from a year ago as the Knights are 9-5 in the conference,they went 6-10 against CUSA foes in 2010-11 and also went 6-10 in the league in 2009-10 UCF's nine CUSA wins are the most for the program since going 9-7 in 2007-08 they seem to be the more desperate team here, and they get the backing vs a undisciplined memphis squad who is 0-7 ats when vegas total is set between 131-134. there is also a statfox power trend that supports siding with UCF (Play Against - A favorite (MEMPHIS) after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games 41-15 over the last 5 seasons.
UCF +11.5 and UCF-MEMPHIS UNDER 132.5 ARE THE PLAYS.
INDIANA +3 ....there are some cappers/touts out there that would suggest "Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment" I say **** that, it really shows one has no confidence in there pick, well i do, because like i always say ""Confidence comes not from always being right, but from not fearing to be wrong." and with that comes a big battle for the indiana hoosiers, who close out the regular season with two home games where they play really well at Assembly Hall, where they are 16-1 str8 up. The Hoosiers are slotted 11th in the Sagarin Ratings, 11th by kenpom.com and are 17th in the RPI. IU has wins over four teams that are currently nationally ranked in Kentucky, Ohio State, Michigan and Notre Dame. Michigan State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana, do you know why maybe its because tom crean is a disciple of tom izzo , So why not take the 2.5 points with a team that is 5-0 ats revenging a loss of 10points or more. give me some HOOSIERS +3.
IDAHO ST-E.WASH UNDER the posted total why i say this when just a couple of days ago we had the BOOKIEBASHERBEATDOWNBLOWOUT was on the over 136 last thursday ? here the vegas oddsmakers put a total up of 138.5 and before you can say "pass the pipe" the total has been hammered by squares all over the country and its now up to 142, and it should go higher, thats why i suggest waiting up to game time to hammer the UNDER, i say this from personal history and experience , and every wiseguy proffesional should say the same thing, if it looks too good to be true, its definatley not. Both these schools just combined for 163 points 5 days ago ! every stat basically supports the over, they are a combined 8-2 over , last 7 match- ups have gone over. do what you want, but im relying on a questionable starter for eagles, its a weekday game, and experience.