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Los Angeles vs. ColumbusFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Kings will put forth a far more disciplined effort after giving up three power play goals en route to a 7-4 loss in Anaheim on Saturday. Jonathan Quick was pulled after allowing two goals on three shots in that contest, but he's certainly capable of bouncing back against one of the league's worst teams. Columbus did score four goals in a win over Detroit on Saturday, but prior to that the Jackets had potted only eight goals in their last six games combined. It appears that Steve Mason has wrestled the Jackets starting goaltender job away from Sergei Bobrovsky. Remember, Mason was considered one of the elite young goaltenders in hockey a couple of years ago before turning in a disastrous 2011-12 campaign. He has shown signs of returning to the form that saw him post a 2.29 goals against average and 10 shutouts in his rookie season, recording a 2.76 GAA so far this year. In his last two games, he's allowed only two goals on 47 shots. As I mentioned, the Kings scored four goals last time out, but that was in a wide-open affair - something I don't expect to see tonight. They've been held to two goals in regulation time in five of seven games so far this season. Note that five of Columbus' last six games have totaled five goals or less. Saturday's game reached six thanks to a goal in the final 30 seconds of the third period.
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Youngstown State -2½FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Youngstown State easily handled Cleveland State just ten days ago in their first go around at Youngstown. The Penguins turned the Vikings over 18 time and won the game at the foul line with a 21-5 edge. Hard to see how Cleveland State will turn things around here despite playing at home. The Vikes have been burning tickets all year at 6-12 ATS which includes 3-11 as a dog and 4-9 against winning records. Youngstown is just 3-12 the last 15 in the series but is 7-4 ATS in their L11 trips to Goodman Arena. The Tuxedos are a very representative 9-10 as a road favorite and have made a living this year beating up on teams outside the top 200 going 5-1 ATS. Take Youngstown.
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Boston College at MiamiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Boston CollegeFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami is getting all the coverage with their Top 10 ranking and being unbeaten in ACC play, but this is not an explosive offensive team. This team is one that focuses on defense for coach Larranaga. And teams are bringing their best against them, off a one-point game against NC State and a nine-point win over V-Tech. Boston College has a fine offense (68 points per game) with workhorse Ryan Anderson (16 ppg, 8.7 rebounds per game) and freshman Joe Rahon was voted the Atlantic Coast Conference Rookie of the Week. The Eagles are 8-3 ATS against a team with a winning record, and are on a 7-3 ATS run and 7-3 ATS when following a win. That win was an impressive 75-68 one over Clemson. The Eagles are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Miami-Florida and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take Boston College.
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Florida - over ArkansasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas is 11-1 at home this season but the Razorbacks enter this game coming off a huge win over Tennessee last weekend. Arkansas did beat Oklahoma at home earlier this season and the lone home loss came respectably against Syracuse but Florida appears to be a huge jump in class. The Gators are 8-2 in road and neutral site games this season and Florida has won and covered in every SEC road game despite several massive spreads. The Gators had a little trouble with Mississippi over the weekend to snap an eight-game ATS winning streak but this is a Gators team that is crushing the opposition, winning by double-digits in every SEC game and winning by 20 or more in six of those games. Florida crushed Arkansas by 30 last season in Little Rock and the up-tempo pressing style of the Razorbacks won�t rattle this balanced veteran Florida squad. In road games Florida has out-scored foes by 20 points per game and Arkansas will have a very tough time keeping up in this match-up.
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Florida State +3 -108 over GEORGIA TECHFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Yellow Jackets are 2-6 in the ACC with wins coming over Wake last week and Virginia this past weekend. In between, there was a loss to Clemson. The last time Tech won consecutive games was prior to ACC play when they defeated Chattanooga and Fordham back on December 29 and January 2, not exactly signature wins. Tech's strength of schedule ranks 106th in the country. The Yellow Jackets are wildly erratic and they're certainly not to be trusted as chalk against a team they typically have a hard time with.
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The Seminoles strength of schedule ranks 12th. They're 4-4 in the conference and while they are challenged offensively, they are more than capable of matching buckets with the Jackets. With a stronger bench and a big psychological edge knowing they've defeated this team seven straight, the Seminoles get a break in class here and should respond accordingly.
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OTTAWA -½ +130 over BuffaloFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. Since losing Jason Spezza to injury, the Senators have one goal in two games, both losses. That has them undervalued and we're glad to step in as this team has plenty of depth, desire and talent. Both defensively and in goal, the Sens are among the best in the business. The goals will start coming and Ottawa couldn't have picked a better foe for that to occur against.
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Buffalo blew a 3-1 lead to the Panthers on Sunday. They've allowed four or more goals in four straight and three or more in seven straight. Tyler Myers, who signed a $12M a year deal and looked like the next coming of Larry Robinson is proving to be a defensive liability. His offense is worse with just one point in nine games. We've mentioned numerous times already this season that the Sabres are not right. They lack focus, secondary scoring and their defensive play has been atrocious. It’s scary to think where they would be without Thomas Vanek. Buffalo has three wins this season and none of them deserved. Don’t expect a turnaround against this superior host.
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NEW JERSEY +112 over N.Y. RangersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Rangers favored in New Jersey, not matter how small of a price, is entirely unwarranted. It stems from New York going into Tampa Bay on the weekend and knocking off the previously hottest scoring team in the NHL. Prior to that, the Rangers were a .500 club at 3-3 and they're likely going to be a .500 club the rest of the way.
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The Devils continue to be overlooked. They were a grossly undervalued and profitable dog last season and not much has changed. The Devils have one regulation loss this year. They show a 4-4 record but three of those losses, to the Islanders, Montreal and Boston occurred in OT with the latter two coming on the road. It's early but we still can't ignore that the Devils penalty kill, power-play, goals for and goals against all rank higher than the Rangers. We'll eliminate OT and play this one in regulation only because extra time is proving to be a weakness for the Devils. Wrong side favored.
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ST. LOUIS -½ -108 over NashvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. This is not a good spot nor is it a friendly venue for the Predators. The last two trips here have resulted in identical 3-0 defeats at the hands of the Blues. Nashville has one goal in its past three trips here. To make matters worse, the Preds will play their seventh straight on the road after opening the year with two games at home. Nashville played a weekend set in San Jose and Anaheim and both games went into OT with the Predators winning both. However, they've scored one goal or less in regulation in four of its past five games for a total of two goals in those four games. Overall, Nashville has scored a mere 14 times in eight games. That's not going to get it done against this powerful host.
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The Blues have scored 14 times in three home games, where they are 3-0 and have outscored the opposition 14-4. They're also the freshest bunch in the NHL, having been off since playing Friday night in Detroit. St. Louis rolls out four solid lines, they play outstanding defense and could very well be the least flawed team in the NHL. Being rested and coming off a loss, the Blue Notes should have little trouble disposing of this fatigued guest.
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Calgary +146 over DETROITFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT Included. The Flames have played six games, the fewest of any team in the league. They also have less wins (1) than any team. They've had the luxury of playing five of their first six games at the Saddledome. They are generally perceived as the NHL's least talented team but we're not so sure. Calgary has had some terrible luck. Against an elite Chicago team on Saturday night, the Flames outshot the ‘Hawks 47-19 and were two seconds away from victory. Over Calgary's past three games, they've limited the opposition to 22 shots or fewer. The Flames have not been outshot in any game so far. Frustrating yes, but they are playing much better than their 1-3-2 record indicates and as long as they keep their heads up, their efforts will be rewarded.
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Detroit has been bit hard by the injury bug. Its defense is losing bodies quicker than a Quentin Tarantino movie with the latest casualty being Brendan Smith. Outside of Niklas Kronwall, Detroit's blue-line looks like a bunch of castoffs and call-ups. Detroit has some nice wins this year including one over St. Louis but for the most part, they just don't look sharp. They are not the dominating team they've been in the past few years and with a game on deck in St. Louis on Thursday, the ‘look ahead’ factor could come into play. That would be a mistake, as Calgary's defense is playing well and the club is on the verge of a win. With a nice tag on them and welcoming a chance to hit the road, this is a good spot for their 2nd win.
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Calgary vs. DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CalgaryFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The crowd at the Saddledome was stunned on Saturday night, when the Flames hosted the Blackhawks, who were playing just 24 hrs after a shootout loss to Vancouver the night before. I had Calgary in that game, and the Flames dominated from start to finish, but in the end they got robbed.
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They out-shot the Hawks 47-19, and carried the play for the entire game. With a 2-1 lead with just two seconds remaining on the clock, the Hawks tied it to force overtime, and went on to win in a shootout.
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Calgary played that game with a level of desperation that you don't normally see less than 10 games into the season, but with just a single victory so far, you can expect a similar effort in Detroit tonight.
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Coach Bob Hartley was pleased with his team's effort on Saturday: "I see many positive signs all over our game, and it's just a matter of collecting a couple of wins and growing a little confidence," coach Bob Hartley said. "If we play every game like we played (Saturday), we're going to turn our season around, that's for sure."
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I couldn't agree more with coach Hartley. A similar effort from the Flames on the road in Detroit tonight should result in a victory.
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Take the Flames,
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Denver Nuggets -6.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Denver Nuggets are once again showing solid value as only a 6.5-point home favorite over the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. The Nuggets are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, and I look for them to make it seven straight in blowout fashion Tuesday.
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Denver simply does not lose at home. It is 20-3 SU & 15-8 ATS in all home games this season. It is scoring 108.2 points/game and allowing 99.1 points/game at home this year, outscoring opponents by 9.1 points/game. Milwaukee will have a hard time keeping up as it is scoring just 96.7 points/game on the road this season.
This has been a one-sided series in recent meetings to say the least. The Nuggets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Bucks. Denver is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 meetings with Milwaukee, including 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home meetings.
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Milwaukee is 1-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 22-41 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. Milwaukee is 4-15 ATS against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Denver is a perfect 7-0 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.
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3 UNIT PLAYSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan/ Ohio State Under 132.5: The first time these teams played I had the Under 140 in that game and they scored just 109 points. I don't expect just 109 points in this one, but I also don't expect more than the low 120's between these teams. Michigan really plays at a slow pace as they are 267th in the nation in tempo (KenPom), while Ohio State isn't considered uptempo either as they are 182nd in tempo. Michigan shoots the ball very well, hitting 50.1% of their shots for 76.7 ppg, but they are facing an OSU team that is 17th in the nation in defensive FG% (37.8%) and 13th in points allowed (57.3 ppg). In the first meeting they hell the Wolverines to just 38.3% shooting and 53 points. This is one good defensive team. On the other side we have another good defensive team as well. Michigan comes in ranked 38th in points allowed (59.6 ppg) on 40.7% shooting (90th), while at home they have allowed just 55.7 ppg on 39.9% shooting at home. As I stated above, Ohio State is not really an uptempo team and it has been even more evident in their last 3 games as they have averaged just 46.3 shots per game over that stretch, which is 329th in the nation in that span. The Buckeyes have really struggled to score on the road as they have averaged just 63.5 ppg on 40.7% shooting away from home. That's a little over 8 ppg less than their season to date average. This should be another tough, tight defensive battle, with about 120 points being scored.
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South Carolina/ Kentucky Under 139.5: The over is 16-5 the last 21 meetings between these teams. but just 3-4 the last 7. South Carolina is having problems scoring right now as they have scored just 92 points in their last 2 games, while on the road this year they have averaged just 60.8 ppg on 38% shooting. Their numbers don't figure to be all that better, as the Cats have allowed just 60 ppg on 37.7% shooting. Kentucky's defense seems to be getting a bit better as they have allowed just 36.4% shooting in their last 5 games. The Cats do average 82 ppg at home, but I feel that South Carolina will be able to slow the pace enough to keep Kentucky under 75 points here, while the Cats defense will hold South Carolina in the 50's. 74-56 sounds about right.
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NORTH CAROLINA -12 over Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons have really struggled on the road of late, losing by 26 at Maryland and by 22 at Georgia Tech in their last 2 games away from home and i feel that the Heels are better than both those squads. Wake has allowed a whopping 78.6 ppg on 52.9% shooting in their last 5 games, while the Heels have scored 75.6 ppg in their last 5 games overall and 79.7 ppg at home. Not good news for a Wake Forest squad that averages just 63.5 ppg on 39.9% shooting. How will the Deacons come up with enough points to keep this one close, especially vs a Heels squad that allows just 65.5 ppg on 38.8% shooting at home this year. I don't see them being able to do that here. carolina is rejuvenated and playing really well and should blowout the Deacons in this one.
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Atlanta / Indiana Over 182.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana has been amazing on the offensive end lately and they had the following offensive ratings on their last 5 games: 120.7, 111.4, 110.7, 118.6 and 125.7! In fact, three of the four best offensive games of the Pacers this season have been on their last 5 games! David West is simply dominating down low with his post up moves, while the Pacers's outside shooting is really red hot right now with 31-68 (45.5%) 3pts on their last 4 games! This offensive domination from the Pacers is even more impressive, if we have in account that Roy Hibbert is still struggling on the offensive end (16-45 35% FG on the team's last 4 games)! Indiana had no problems in winning the boards battle against Chicago last night, but the Bulls were shorthanded and completely worn out, especially Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler who played at least 44 minutes in 3 straight games! However, Chicago was still able to make a little comeback and they were just down by 94-98 with two minutes to go! This will be the middle game of a back-to-back-to-back spot for Indiana, who will play at Philadelphia tomorrow. This is due to yesterday's make up game against Chicago.
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Atlanta is coming from a game against Chicago, where it was demonstrated how easily they fold against physical teams or how prone they are to overlook their opponents. However, for some reason, they are a tough matchup for Indiana. Atlanta won the last 4 games between these two teams and even though they are a bit undersized down low, Roy Hibbert can't perform against Atlanta! On the last game between these two teams, Hibbert was able to remain scoreless for 20 minutes and his performance was so bad that he got benched and didn't play down the stretch! Atlanta has been completely owned on the glass over their last 2 games, while allowing 15 and 18 offensive rebounds to Toronto and Chicago, so if they want to be competitive tonight against the Pacers, they really need to do better on the glass tonight. Zaza Pachulia is unlikely to play tonight, so Atlanta will be once again undersized on the down low.
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This is a back to back game for Indiana, who is coming from two great wins over their main rivals in the East: Miami and Chicago. Yesterday the Pacers used all their starters at least 30 minutes, with Paul George playing 44 minutes. The good news is that they will play once again at home tonight, so there is no travel factor for them. Regarding what happened to Hibbert on the team's last game against Atlanta, it seems that he will be fired up to play well tonight:
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"Every game I think about what happened in Atlanta," Roy Hibbert said. "Not to put pressure on myself, but knowing I'm better than that. I told myself, 'I can't let that happen again. I just try to help out as much as I can, at least rebound whenever when I can."
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Indiana's offense is really having a nice flow right now and I don't think that will change tonight. David West will still have an edge tonight against Josh Smith down low, while the Hawks's starting backcourt of DeShawn Stevenson, Kyle Korver and Jeff Teague doesn't impress me one bit defensively and so, a red hot Indiana should be able to have another great game on their outside shooting today. So, the question in here is to know what Atlanta's offense will be able to do tonight. First of all, I find it unlikely that Indiana will show the same effort and focus for three straight games. They played big games against Miami and Chicago, but considering Atlanta's latest results, they won't be looked as a huge threat for Indiana tonight. Also after their humiliating home loss against a shorthanded Bulls, Atlanta will come more aggressive than ever tonight. They scored just 76 points on their last game and in the two previous times that they scored less than 80 points this season (58 points at Chicago and 76 at LA against the Clippers), they bounced back well in the following game by scoring 95 points at Portland and 109 points against Brooklyn!
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Indiana's offense has been great, but their effort on defense hasn't been the same, especially on transition defense, where they have been lazy lately. Even though they lead the league on transition defense with just 1.02 PPP allowed, they have been allowing an average of 1.18 PPP on their last 10 games and 1.31 PPP on their last 5 games! With the Hawks being undersized and aggressive, I expect them to try to score in transition as much as possible and they have in here a nice edge to explore indeed. Therefore, I don't expect this game to be a low scoring game at all and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
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Atlanta Hawks +6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a very difficult spot for Indiana. The Pacers are coming off two huge home wins over the Heat and Bulls and could find it difficult to bring the energy needed to blowout the Hawks on no rest. Atlanta should come out extremely motivated and well rested. The Hawks haven't played since that embarrassing 76-93 defeat at home to the Bulls on Saturday. Atlanta matches up very well with the Pacers, the Hawks have won four straight in the series, including two wins this season. I don't know if Atlanta will have enough to pull out a win, but I like their chances of keeping it close. Indiana is just 6-17 ATS after playing 2 more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons and are just 3-11 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
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Denver Nuggets -6.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With the total set at 214.5, it's clear oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring affair. This means they think the Nuggets, which average 108.2 ppg at home, are going to be doing some scoring. I think the high total is a tip of the hand as Denver is 7-0 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. It has won by an average of 15.4 points in this situation while putting up an average of 114.0. Also, the Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 39-19-2 ATS in their last 60 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 2-9-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Denver. Bet the Nuggets.
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Golden State Warriors +2.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I like the Warriors catching more than a bucket on the road tonight. With Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut now healthy, the Warriors are bringing some serious talent and depth to the court. Mark Jackson has preached defense since taking over as head man, and it has paid off. The Warriors have been extremely valuable in the road underdog role as a result. In fact, they are 33-17 ATS as a road underdog since Jackson took over. The Warriors give up over 99 ppg but that's only because of the pace they force their opponents to play. They rank in the top 4 in the league in both field goal percentage defense and 3-point field goal percentage defense. Houston is much softer defensively, ranking 19th and 24th, respectively, in those two categories. Take the points.
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Boston College +13 over MiamiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami is 13-3 against the spread this year and the line makers are now catching up with them. BC took Miami to the wire up a home earlier this year and I just don’t think Miami should be double digit favorites with the style they play. Miami averages just under 70 pts a game not 80 like powerhouse offenses and they really are not good from the foul line. A lot has to go right to win by double digits. We all know Boston College is the worst team in the ACC and Miami is the best yet this line keeps dropping? We all know at 13-3 ATS the public is going to pound the canes. Vegas does not like giving free money away. The Canes are coming off their worst defensive game and might be looking forward to a big game vs. UNC is a few days. Look for BC to stay inside the number.
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Golden State/Houston Under 216FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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For starters this is a lot of points in a basketball game. Offenses pretty much have to be on fire for 4 full quarters. Any interesting note is the Rockets play at Miami tomorrow night and Golden State plays in Oklahoma City. Should either team get a decent lead I expect players to conserve their energy. The last few times these teams have met the totals were set even lower and still didn’t get close to going over. Lets just bank on these factors and hope each team plays a tiny bit of defense making this low scoring. Take the Under.
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Los Angeles at ColumbusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I gave out a free play last week on Columbus under the total and it pushes due to a late empty net goal. We’ll go back to the well tonight with the same play as Los Angeles comes to town. The Kings have always been very good defensively, despite taking a step back last game in Anaheim on Saturday night. Both teams have really struggled to score this season with Columbus putting up just 1.89 goals a game and LA with 2.14. One of the biggest reasons for NHL games going over the total this season has been the amount of penalties called and the effectiveness of the power plays. In this situation we find both teams at the bottom of the league in PP% (Columbus 23rd 14.6% and LA 27th 10.8%). Don't expect either team to help this total get over 5.5 with their man advantage. The biggest variable in this game is the ability for LA to get back to solid defensive hockey that they are known for against an offensively anemic team. I expect a solid defensive effort from the Kings on the road with this game staying well under the total.