Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday February, 7

Rob Vinciletti

Creighton vs. Evansville
Play: Creighton -5.5

Creighton is once again a top tier Missouri Valley Conference team this season. Tonight they have some solid angles in their favor as they travel to Evansville. The Jays are 15-4 with 14 spread wins off a loss and have won 19 of the last 23 including all 5 games this season vs teams under .500. They are 4-0 with 3 ats wins in the series of late and 8-2 on the road. Evansville has lost 13 of 13 vs winning teams and are have lost and failed to cover 3 of the last 4 times as a home dog of 3.5 to 6. They are also 2-6 when the total is 150 to 160 and they simply may not be able to score with Creighton.

Ben Burns

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Montreal Canadiens
PICK: Montreal Canadiens

I won with the Canadiens in their last game, a 3-0 victory over Winnipeg on Sunday. They're "stepping up in class" here, so are now listed as underdogs. As I feel they've got an excellent shot at another victory, I believe that's providing us with solid value.

The Canadiens should be extremely motivated. That's because they are playing with "triple revenge," having lost all three to the Penguins so far this season. Note that each of the last two meetings were decided by a single goal.

Still without Crosby, the Pens have started to finally cool off a little lately. They lost 5-2 last time out and have now dropped two of their last three. Note that they're only 2-8 (-8.6) the last 10 times that they were off a loss of two or more goals.

The Pens are wrapping up a 4-game road trip and have a few days off after this. They could easily be looking forward to getting home. On the other hand, the Canadiens are finishing up a 3-game homestand. Having split the first two games, they'd love to close things out with a win here.

I expect the Canadiens to be a little more "hungry" and feel that gives them a strong shot at the "upset." Looking for a play with a decent underdog return on Tuesday? Consider Montreal.

Jim Feist

Creighton vs Evansville
Pick: Evansville

Creighton is the strong team here, but they have a huge showdown game on deck against powerhouse Wichita State. Evansville has a winning record at home and will be sky high with a Top 25 team in town. The Purple Aces are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Purple Aces are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Play Evansville.

Dave Cokin

Providence vsVillanova
Pick: Villanova

Certainly a rough season for Villanova, but the Wildcats have a good opportunity to take out some frustration here. Providence let one get away on Sunday against West Virginia, and I don't see the Friars recovering in just 48 hours. I'll side with 'Nova tonight.

Free NBA Pick For 2/7: Once again we're going to fade Utah on the road, and side with the Indiana Pacers at home -8.5. As we stated yesterday, Utah has had the luxury of playing too many games at home this year. Now they're in their second of back-to-back nights on the road, and that's tough enough as it is. The Jazz are going to have some tired legs after last nights game in New York. They're five starters we're on the court for most of the game, and that is particularly tough when you're playing the next day in another city. Indiana is coming off a day of rest, and a tough two basket loss at home to the Magic. We suspect the Pacers will be eager to right the ship against a tired Jazz club that is just 2-6 ATS on the road this year. Indiana is a solid 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU loss, and 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Utah is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games playing without rest. We'll lay the points on the home chalk tonight. Indiana Pacers -8.5. Our Free Picks are now 160-82-1 and 16-2 L18, TY Knicks! Sign up today to receive all of our free releases via email at iseewinners.com. Thank you, and best of luck.

David Banks

Florida / Kentucky Under

Super Tuesday tips off with a heck of a confrontation in the SEC when the 7th ranked Florida Gators (19-4, 9-8-1 ATS) storm Lexington looking to take down the top ranked Kentucky Wildcats (23-1, 8-14-1 ATS); take this one in live from Rupp Arena at 7:00 ET on ESPN.

The Gators find themselves dogged by oddsmakers for the first time since going into Syracuse back on December 2nd; Florida lost that game 72-68 but covered as seven-point pups to move to 2-0 ATS as underdogs after covering against the Ohio State Buckeyes back in Mid November. Head Coach Billy Donovan had himself a heck of a team a year ago that went 29-8 SU & 17-15-1 ATS while making a heck of a run in the NCAA Tournament before bowing out to Butler in the Elite 8. This squad has most of the ingredients a team needs to make a run at the 2011-12 title, and a win here would only help further cement that notion. Unfortunately, the Gators have had problems away from Gainesville already falling to lesser Rutgers and Tennessee UF checks in 2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS in its six true road games to date.

Though Kentucky got out to a stellar 17-1 SU start through its first 18 games played, it flat out killed its betting backers during that stretch managing just a 3-13-1 ATS record in the 16 lined games. However, after escaping Knoxville with a win mid January, the Wildcats have won each of their last six games played and only suffered one pointspread defeat during that stretch. Last we saw Head Coach John Caliparis super talented squad hit the hardwood, it handed South Carolina a beatdown for the ages winning 86-52 as 11.5-point road chalk. KY has flat out mauled each of its last four opponents beating the likes of Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, and the aforementioned Gamecocks by an average of 24 points per game. The Wildcats are faced with a daunting schedule to close out the regular season, so look for them to make the most of their four remaining home games where they stand a perfect 15-0 SU & bankroll bursting 3-10-1 ATS on the year.

These teams split their regular season meetings a year ago with Florida earning the 70-68 outright home win and cover as one-point underdogs before Kentucky evened the score at home with a 76-68 win that pushed against the closing number. The Wildcats took the season series when they pounded the Gators 70-54 as 1.5-point underdogs in the SEC Tournament Championship Game. The road team is 3-1-1 ATS the L/5 meetings, but the Gators have only covered one of their L/6 following an ATS win. The Gators stand 5-2-1 ATS their L/8 trips to Rupp, but the Wildcats have covered each of their L/4 within the conference. The under has cashed six of the L/8 times these rivals went at it in Lexington.

Sammy P

Devils at Rangers
Play: Over 5

New Jersey makes the trip across the river to face the league leading New York Rangers in Madison Square Garden tonight. Always a bitter rivalry, these two teams play each other hard and always entertain the fans in one way or another. Lately the Devils have been entertaining everyone with their huge offensive outbursts. The Devils are on a four-game win streak where they have scored 20 goals and allowed 12. Needless to say, all of those games went flying Over the total. I look for more wide open play tonight as they look to get the Rangers to stray from their puck possession style. New York loves to cycle and work the puck down low to create their scoring chances and the Devils know they can't beat them by grinding it out. The Rangers are just too big, strong, and talented to beat them at their own game. I expect the Devils to push the play and use their speed and transition offensive to create their chances tonight leaving them a bit exposed defensively as well. These two teams played a 4-3 shootout game last week and I am expecting a similar type game tonight. The total of 5 is very generous and I see no reason not to take advantage of such a key number.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Creighton -5.5

This could have been a potential look ahead spot for Creighton, who hosts Wichita State Saturday, but a loss at Northern Iowa last game assures us the Bluejays won't take Evansville lightly.

Creighton has won 6 in a row against the Purple Aces with these wins coming by an average of 9.8 points. It is also worth noting that Creighton is 9-1 ATS off a loss to a conference rival with coach McDermott at the helm. It has won by an average of 7.7 points in this situation.

In addition, the Bluejays are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Evansville. Overall, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Creighton.

Matt Fargo

Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -7½

Phoenix has won two straight games for just the third time this season but it has yet to win three in a row and I don't see that happening tonight. The Suns are coming off a big win last night against the Hawks which happened to be the first time Atlanta has lost to a team below .500 this season. Phoenix is 5-8 on the road this season and it is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. The favorite has covered four straight and seven of eight in this series.

The Bucks meanwhile have dropped two straight games which came Friday night in Detroit and Saturday night at home against the Bulls. That was only the third home loss for the Bucks this season as the home team is now 17-6 in its 23 games on the season. Prior to the loss against Chicago, Milwaukee had won home games against the Lakers and the Heat in the days leading up to that so they have been able to be very competitive at home against the top teams. Phoenix is not part of that group.

Milwaukee lost in Phoenix in the first meeting this season and it was an ugly 16-point loss and it was much worse than that as the Suns had built a 28-point lead. Phoenix shot 55.8 percent from the floor and it was the 24th straight home win for the Suns against Milwaukee. That is certainly an ugly string for the Bucks but we have to remember that the Suns were an elite team for a lot of those wins and that is far from the case this season despite that dominant win last month.

Milwaukee is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 home games following two or more consecutive losses while going 5-0 ATS in its last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage less than .400. The Bucks have struggled this season when playing with no rest, case in point Saturday against Chicago, as it is 1-7 ATS playing with no rest but it is 10-5 ATS when playing with at least one day off. The Suns meanwhile are just 2-6 ATS this season when getting between 7.0 and 9.5 points.

Rocketman

Florida @ Kentucky
Play: Florida +9

#7 ranked Florida vs #1 ranked Kentucky here tonight! Florida is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS last 3 years when playing against a good defensive team allowing 64 points per game or less after 15 or more games. Kentucky is 2-8 ATS this year after scoring 80 points or more. Florida is scoring 80.1 points per game overall this year and 77.2 points per game on the road this season. Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games. Gators are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Gators are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Gators are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Wildcats are 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Wildcats are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Wildcats are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. Wildcats are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Gators are 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Kentucky. Gators are 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Florida tonight!

Steve Janus

Utah Jazz +9

The Jazz really put forth a disappointing effort against the short-handed Knicks last night. Utah has now lost three of their last four overall. The Jazz will be extremely motivated to win this game, and they are definitely talented enough to keep the final score under double-digits. A lot of people will be quick to jump on Indiana because the Jazz are playing their second game of a back-to-back road set, but I don't think they used much energy at all last night.

The Pacers scored a season-low 81-points in a rare home loss to the Magic on Saturday. The Pacers have been inconsistent all season offensively. Utah doesn't feature a great defense, but they do have a strong presence in the paint, which will force Indiana to shoot a lot of outside shots.

Utah is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record while Indiana is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Flames / Sharks Over 5.5

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":

The Calgary Flames are 24-22-3-4 overall this year; they're 14-8-1-1 at home and just 10-14-2-3 on the road; they're coming off a 3-2 shootout loss at Anaheim on Sunday, which was on the heels of a 3-1 win over the Blackhawks at home three nights previous.

The O/U is 19-31-3.

"We had a couple of chances to win, but it's not easy with their goalie," Flames netminder Mikka Kiprusoff said.

Calgary remains just three points out of a playoff spot though with 29-games left in the season, and captain Jerome Iginla believe's his team has a legitimate shot at finally making it to the post-season after missing for two years straight:

"We've played Detroit," Iginla reasoned. "We've played Vancouver. We've played San Jose. And we've played them lately. And while we respect them, we definitely feel we can beat them ...

"I like it in Calgary. I believe we can be in the playoffs and have a shot."

On the other bench: The Sharks are 29-15-3-3 overall this year, including 17-8-2-0 at home and 12-7-1-3 on the road; after three straight victories, they're coming off a 5-3 loss at Phoenix on Saturday.

The O/U is 23-27-0.

"It wasn't lack of offense," said Sharks coach Todd McLellan. "We had a number of chances and ended up with three at the end. We were not competitive at the times we needed to be competitive."

Bottom line: Both teams push the pace of this game after lacklustre efforts; you may want to consider a second look at the "over" in this contest.

Sspartan

Evansville +5.5

I do understand, it's not easy to take the Ace's here against a clearly superior Jays club. Well, it wasn't to appealing to wager on Oklahoma last night against the vastly better Missouri Tigers either. However that turned out okay didn't it? The fact is I think this is a tough spot for Creighton with the upcoming battle against Wichita State looming. I fully anticipate the crowd to be electric with the ranked Jays in the house and frankly the Aces are a historically a solid proposition on their home floor against quality opponents. I feel Creighton is in for an alley fight here. I say take the generous points here with the home dog. To be candid I did consider this as a Rabid Dog Release tonight but found another game that seemed even stronger to me so I chose it in the end.

Sean Murphy

Creighton @ Evansville
PICK: Under 153.5

Creighton suffered a rare loss on Saturday, dropping a 65-62 decision on a last-second three-pointer from Northern Iowa's Anthony James.

That was only the Blue Jays third loss overall this season, and second in Missouri Valley Conference play.

Despite that setback, Creighton continues to play excellent defensive basketball. The Blue Jays have five of their last six opponents to fewer than 70 points. Illinois State was the only team to break through that barrier, in a game where the Jays emptied their bench in a 28-point victory (we won w/ Creighton in that game).

While Creighton is known as a high-powered offensive team that loves to push the pace, the fact is, the 'under' has cashed at a 4-1-1 clip in its last five contests. Save for that 102-point outburst against Illinois State, it's not as if the Blue Jays have been scoring at will lately. They've been held to 77 points or less in five of their last six games.

Evansville saw its string of six consecutive 'over' results come to an end in Saturday's narrow 53-52 loss at Southern Illinois.

While the Purple Aces own an ugly set of defensive numbers, they've actually performed much better at home in MVC play, limiting five of their six opponents to fewer than 70 points. Only Illinois State was able to eclipse that number, in a game that still reached only 150 points, staying 'under' tonight's posted total.

In fact, only one of Evansville's six conference home games has surpassed the number we're working with tonight in regulation time.

These two teams hooked up twice last season, with those games totaling 143 and 144 points. Personnel-wise, both squads remain similar. With that being said, the oddsmakers are expecting a different result, adjusting this total northward by 23 points from the closing number in their most recent meeting nearly a year ago to the day.

For the most part, the 'over' results we've seen from the Blue Jays this year have come in games that have resulted in blowout victories. Evansville should be able to stay somewhat competitive in this contest, as it has all season here at home. I'm banking on both defenses playing well enough to keep this one 'under' the inflated total.