Scott Rickenbach
Cleveland @ Miami
PICK: Miami -13
The Miami Heat were built on ego, they thrive on ego. With larger-than-life characters like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, there’s no team in the NBA that can win or lose based on how they feel that night more than the Heat. And after a lackluster showing versus the Toronto Raptors Sunday, Miami’s Big Three will be out for a pick-me-up against the Cleveland Cavaliers Tuesday. And it’s not like the Heat don’t have any added motivation to knock around the Cavs. Of course, there are LeBron’s motives when playing his former club. But a new angle that has surfaced is the battle in the backcourt between Wade and No. 1 overall pick Kyrie Irving. Wade missed the first meeting with Irving this season due to injury and will be licking his chops at the opportunity to put the youngster in his place. Cleveland already has some gaping holes in its backcourt with Daniel Gibson and Anthony Parker out with injuries. The Heat will attack Irving and run the former Duke standout into the ground. Cleveland may be on thin ice before it even comes to South Beach Tuesday. The Cavaliers have gone toe-to-toe with some of the NBA’s top teams in recent games, including a shocker over the defending champion Dallas Mavericks Saturday. This sets up perfect for Miami backers, looking to not only capitalize on a motivated Heat squad but also a Cavs team primed for a letdown. The Heat are healthy, home and hungry to get their hands on Cleveland Tuesday night.
David Chan
Hurricanes @ Ducks
PICK: Under
I bet value where I see it and expect this to be a tightly checked, low-scoring affair.
The 20-25-9 Carolina Hurricanes storm into Anaheim to take on the 20-24-8 Ducks.
Carolina is coming off a hard-fought 2-1 win over Los Angeles on Saturday.
It was Jeff Skinner's goal 3:02 into the final frame that was the difference; Jiri Tlutsy also tallied a marker, while goaltender Cam Ward had 24-saves:
“They came out ready to play, and it seemed like they had a step on us in the first period,” Ward said. “We weren’t too pleased with it after the first intermission, but once again, we were able to turn it around. We knew that they had some travel, so we made it difficult on them in the second and third.”
Note that Carolina entered that game with a brutal 1-13-0 record when trailing in the first period.
Also note that Ward had posted a stellar 1.88 GAA over his previous 10-home contests.
The Ducks on the other hand are coming off a 3-2 win over the Flames on Monday night.
Niklas Hagman finally beat Mikka Kiprusoff in the eighth round of the shootout:
“He’s a goalie I have practiced a lot against,” said Hagman, who used to play for the Flames. “I don’t have that many moves, and he knows my go-to moves. I tried to switch a little bit. I wanted to come with good speed and shoot it. Luckily for me, he probably thought I was going to go with my backhand.”
Jonas Hiller had 24-saves:
“We really needed those two points,” said Hiller. “It wasn’t an easy game. Both teams played really hard. It was about time we won a shootout.”
Two low-scoring, hard-hitting teams going head to head, with above average goaltenders; all signs point to a low-scoring affair!
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto -101 over WINNIPEG
In a letdown spot last night, the Maple Leafs fell behind early and then awoke in time for a rather easy 6-3 victory. Toronto has now won three in a row and five of six with only loss over that span being that bizarre and unlikely one against the Penguins. The Buds have scored four or more goals in four of their past five and they've scored 11 times in their past two. For the first time in a very long time, the Maple Leafs can smell the playoffs. This is confident team that is on a roll and very dangerous at the moment. Despite playing the second game in two nights, winning is much less physically draining than losing and Toronto can't wait to get back on the ice. Winnipeg returns home from a six-game trip that saw them play on the road twice before the break and four times after it. They’ve scored two goals or less in every game of that trip, went 2-4 with the wins occurring in OT and they were held to 24 shots on net or less in the last five games. It's going to take a lot more than that to beat the ascending Leafs. Play: Toronto -101 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Los Angeles +100 over TAMPA BAY
Dwayne Roloson is the confirmed starter for the Lightning tonight. In 24 games this year, he has a 3.65 GAA, a .882 save percentage and hasn't played since January 21. For the Kings, it'll be Jonathan Quick and his 1.87 GAA and .934 save percentage. Based on that alone, the Kings are worthy of a bet here, as goaltending often decides the outcome. The Kings would be a huge threat with some more scoring. It's no secret that their Achilles Heel all season has been a lack of production. However, the Bolts are not strong defensively and you can count on L.A. attacking with everything they have against a vulnerable 42-year-old, fragile netminder. Tampa Bay could get caught looking ahead to an upcoming three games in four nights road trip against the Rangers, Buffalo and Pittsburgh this coming Thursday, Saturday and Sunday respectively. Play: Los Angeles +100 (Risking 2 units).
New Jersey +150 over N.Y. RANGERS
The Devils remain the Rodney Dangerfield’s of the NHL. They keep getting offered these ridiculous prices and they keep rewarding their backers. New Jersey has won four straight since the break. They beat the Rangers, Philly, Montreal and Pittsburgh. They had a 6-0 lead on Philadelphia and beat the Pens 5-2. They scored four goals or more in all of the above, yet they keep being offered prices that you would find on teams like Calgary and the Islanders. Yes, they have goaltending issues and yes the Rangers are one of the best. However, the Devils can match anyone outside of goal, they're popping in goals at an eye-opening rate and they deserve much more credit than this. We're not always in the business of predicting the outcome of games. We're commonly in the business of finding value and letting the chips fall where they may. With this quality team and what is being offered, this one surely fits. Play: New Jersey +150 (Risking 2 units).
OTTAWA +107 over St. Louis
Ottawa is in a funk with six straight losses but one was in OT and three others were by a single goal. In other words, with a couple of bounces they could easily be 3-3 or even 4-2 over that span. The point is, they're the same team that was winning games earlier. They've just hit a little snag in the road. The Senators are not hanging their heads. They're competing with the same fire they've had all season and such diligence does not go unrewarded for long. Much of the focus here is on Blues goalie Brian Elliott, who played in Ottawa for 3½ years before signing with St. Louis this season. He never stood out for a second in his time as a Senator. This year though, he's an all-star and surely wants to have an impact upon his return to Ottawa. However, the Blues are just 2-5-2 in their past nine road games and 8-11-3 overall. The Blue Notes have scored one goal in five of their past seven games and that serious lack of production does not warrant them being chalk on the road. Finally, St. Louis has lost the last five matchups in Ottawa while not scoring more than two goals in any contest and this one isn't likely to be any different. Play: Ottawa +107 (Risking 2 units).
Vancouver +109 over NASHVILLE
The Canucks are almost always worth a look when taking back a tag and we certainly make no exception here. The Canucks are third in the NHL in points and they've picked up points in five straight and 14 of their past 17 games. The real kicker here is that they could also be in Pekka Rinne's kitchen. In two games this year against Nashville, Rinne was yanked both times after allowing four goals on 16 shots in the first game and five goals on 18 shots in the second. There's not a lot more to say other than reiteracting that we get one of the NHL's elite teams that is always tough to beat and we're taking back a tag against a goaltender they've owned this season. Play: Vancouver +109 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
MINNESOTA -6½ over Sacramento
The Kings appear to be on the rise with three consecutive wins and that allows us an opportunity to cash in on what most perceive as “too many points”, especially with Kevin Love suspended. Frankly, we'd be surprised to see Sacramento stay within double-digits of the Timberwolves. Two of the Kings three wins came at home against visiting Portland and Golden State, the former by three points and the latter in OT. They also defeated the (4-21) Hornets in New Orleans last night in a game they trailed by 13 at the half. Prior to those three wins, the Kings lost to Golden State and Utah, both by just three points. The Kings have played five straight intense games. Now they'll play their fourth game in six days, third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. For sound teams, that's a daunting task. Sacramento is anything but sound. They rank 30th in the Association in both points allowed and assists per game. Meanwhile, Minnesota has won five of seven with only two losses over that span coming against the Lakers and Pacers. Look for the Timberwolves to give a little extra here in support of Love, who will serve the first game of his suspension. The T-Wolves have been off since Saturday and they really should have little trouble disposing of this weak intruder right from the tipoff. Play: Minnesota -6½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
WUNDERDOG
Iowa State at Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma State -2
It has been an unexpected joy ride through early February for the Iowa State Cyclones who bring a 17-6 mark with them to Stillwater. They have not had a lot of road games, and it has shown itself, as they have posted just a 3-4 mark on the road. The Cowboys are looking to even-up their record at 12-12, have still fared well here at 8-3 on the season. The Cowboys held their own vs. a rugged Baylor team before losing by 4 here, and pinned one of just two losses on Missouri here by 7. Winning has come frequently for the home-standing Cowboys, including vs. the number where they are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 at home. Play on Oklahoma State.
SPORTS WAGERS
Purdue +14 over OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes are among the best teams in the country and are a true threat to reach the Final Four this season. They are currently ranked #3 with a 20-3 record and an impressive 8-2 mark in the Big-Ten, where they've now won five in a row. Obviously, they are capable of crushing the inferior Boilermakers but in this scenario, we’re doubtful that they do. OSU is coming off two huge wins over #22 Michigan and #20 Wisconsin. They have second place and #12 Michigan State on deck and this one sits right in the middle of those three. After a two-point loss to Michigan and a two-point win in Northwestern, the Boilermakers can be excused for a lame showing against Indiana on Saturday. They have a slew of close losses this season against Alabama, Xavier, Butler, Wisconsin and Michigan, not to mention some notable wins as well. Purdue may be a class below some of its conference mates but they are battle tested and in a good situational spot here. Play: Purdue +14 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
NHL Predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs +100
The Maple Leafs have gotten themselves in a playoff spot with some good play lately. The Maple Leafs have won three straight, 5 of 6, and have gotten points in 7 of their last 8 games. Their latest was a 6-3 win last night at home versus the Oilers, meaning they are on a back to back tonight as they fly out to Winnipeg. The Jets have dropped two straight and 5 of their last 7 games (needing extra time in both of their 2 wins over that span). Scoring hasn't been easy to come by for the Jets, as they have managed just 6 goals in their last 6 games. The Maple Leafs on the other hand are averaging 4 goals per game over their last 5. The Jets most recent loss was a 3-0 loss Sunday in Montreal. Winnipeg is returning from a 6 game road trip (with the All Star break mixed in) and they do not play good when they are away from home for a long stretch. This season the Jets are 0-3 in their first game back after being on the road for 3 or more. Toronto has taken 2 of the 3 meetings between these two teams, with the loss being in Winnipeg, but with Winnipeg struggling right now and in a tough spot I like the Leafs to continue with another win.
St Louis Blues -119
The St Louis Blues are coming off a road loss in Nashville in which they maybe should have won if it wasn't for Predators goalie Pekka Rinne. The Blues are still 9-4 in their last 13 games overall, which has them 30-14-7 on the season (although just 8-11-3 on the road). Brian Elliott is getting the nod tonight against his former team, and the All Star has been stellar. Elliott is 15-5-2 with a 1.69 GAA and .938 SV% this year. Ottawa has lost 6 straight games, including a bad 5-0 loss against divisional rival Maple Leafs on Saturday night. Scoring has been a problem for the Senators, as they have managed just 8 goals during that 6 game slide (compared to 20 goals against). Craig Anderson is in net for Ottawa, and he has lost all 6 games, allowing 3 or more goals against in 4 of the 6 starts. Already struggling to score I think Ottawa will have some problems against one of the better shut down teams in the league, with their All Star goalie in net looking to prove a point to the team that got rid of him. Take St Louis in this one.
Minnesota Wild -120
Minnesota is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games, with their latest a shootout loss in Dallas. On the season the Wild are 25-19-8 and 12-12-5 on the road. Their opponent tonight is the Columbus Blue Jackets who are coming off a win - just their 5th win in their last 22 games played. The Blue Jackets are coming off their longest road trip of the season (6 games + All Star break mixed in), and are just 1-2 this season in their first game back after 3+ road games. Over their 7 games the Blue Jackets have managed just 10 goals while giving up 20 against. In net for Minnesota is Niklas Backstrom who is 14-12-5 on the season, with a 2.30 GAA and .925 SV%. Over his last three starts he is 2-0-1 with a shutout and allowed just 3 goals against during those three starts. Curtis sanford will be in net for Columbus, and he is 9-12-4 on the season with a 2.56 GAA and .913 SV%. He is 1-2-1 in his last 4 starts, where he has given up 11 goals against. The Blue Jackets haven't played at home since January 19th and I wouldn't be surprised to see them come out flat tonight. The Wild are playing for a playoff spot (currently 8th in the West), while some Columbus players are playing to show case their skills hoping for a trade. This line has moved and you can now get the Wild at (-106) at some places - lets take Minnesota tonight in a good spot.
Nashville Predators +101
Canucks / Predators Under 5.5
The Canucks managed to pull off a victory in Colorado on Saturday afternoon with a late goal and then shootout victory despite being outplayed and outshot 46-29. The Canucks have now won 4 of their last 5 games, but have been to extra time in 4 straight games. Vancouver is 32-15-5 on the season and 17-9-1 on the road. The Predators pulled out a huge 3-1 win Saturday night against their division rival St Louis Blues, where Pekka Rinne stood on his head. The Preds have now won 6 of their last 7 games and are 20-6 in their last 26 games overall. Nashville is sitting just 1 point back of the Canucks in the Standings with their impressive 32-17-4 record. The Predators are 17-7-3 on home ice this season, and have won 13 of their last 16 home games. Nashville has also been stepping up against good teams, going 5-2 in their last 7 vs teams with a winning % higher than .600. These two teams have met twice this season, both in Vancouver, and have each taken a game. Because both games have gone over the posted 5 goal total we are now seeing a total of 5.5, which is rare when these two teams meet. I wouldn't be surprised to see both Roberto Luongo and Pekka Rinne have great games tonight, in what both teams should be treating like a playoff game. This is a good measuring stick for the Predators, and I think they want to prove something tonight. The atmosphere on Saturday in Nashville was great and I expect it to be similar tonight with the Canucks in town. Winning 13 of their last 16 games I think the Predators are being under valued here. I'll take Nashville as home underdogs, and the UNDER 5.5.
Dave Price
1 Unit Sacramento Kings +6.5
With the T-Wolves minus their best player (Kevin Love), who is out with a suspension, I like Sacramento's chances of keeping this one close. The Kings enter this matchup with plenty of confidence following 3 straight wins. Plus, they have covered the spread in each of their last 5. The Timberwolves are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Take the Kings.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Creighton -5.5
This could have been a potential look ahead spot for Creighton, who hosts Wichita State Saturday, but a loss at Northern Iowa last game assures us the Bluejays won't take Evansville lightly.
Creighton has won 6 in a row against the Purple Aces with these wins coming by an average of 9.8 points. It is also worth noting that Creighton is 9-1 ATS off a loss to a conference rival with coach McDermott at the helm. It has won by an average of 7.7 points in this situation.
In addition, the Bluejays are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Evansville. Overall, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Creighton.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Alabama -5.5
Alabama has been no pushover on the road. It has won 6 of 11 away from home on the season and has been very competitive in its losses. It only lost by 6 points at Kentucky in a game that was even closer than the final score indicates. Auburn, meanwhile, lost by 15 at home to Kentucky. Alabama is the more talented team here. It has won the last 3 in this series and posted a 10-point win in last season's trip to Auburn. We'll lay the points.
Jack Jones
Suns/Bucks UNDER 195
Oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks. Season averages alone show you that there is some serious value with the UNDER in this one.
Phoenix used to be an OVER machine, but that is the case no longer even though that remains the perception of this team. The Suns are scoring 92.8 points/game and giving up 96.2 points/game for an average combined score of 189.0 points/game. The Suns are 17-7 to the UNDER in all games, and 10-3 to the UNDER in road games this year.
Milwaukee remains a very good defensive team with a struggling offense, which has been the case every since Scott Skiles took over as head coach. The Bucks are scoring 93.9 points/game and allowing 95.2 points/game for an average combined score of 189.1 points/game. As you can see, we are getting nearly 6 full points of value based on both team's season averages.
The UNDER is 21-8 in Suns last 29 games as an underdog, including 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 5-0 in Bucks last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. The UNDER is 22-8-1 in Bucks last 31 games as a home favorite. The UNDER is 35-16 in Bucks last 51 games playing on 2 days rest. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
Craig Trapp
Florida vs. Kentucky
Play: Florida +9
Tough loss as TEX loses by 1/2 point, still our 10-6 Top play CBB record speaks for itself. Bounce back in big way with out 5 star CBB Top UNDERDOG of WEEK! Jump on this one as you won't even need the points, ENJOY!
Florida +9: Gators are way under rated in my opinion. They will give UK a real test and we all know how bad UK is ATS at home this year (3-10-1). Look for Florida to slow this one down and this lowering scoring game will keep the Gators in it right until the buzzer.
Hollywood Sports
Texas Tech at Kansas State
Prediction: Texas Tech
The Wildcats (16-6) come off a 64-53 win over Texas A&M on Saturday but as a 12-point favorite which was their 9th failure to cover the point spread in their last 12 games against Big 12 opponents. The Wildcats are probably not potent enough to cover an 18-point spread. They are scoring at just a 1.01 Points-Per-Possession rate against Big 12 opponents (6th in the conference). The Wildcats are turning the ball over in 23.4% of their possessions in conference play (9th in the Big 12). Kansas State has failed to cover the spread in 4 straight home games. And while Texas Tech is just 1-7 on the road, the Wildcats have failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Red Raiders, on the other hand, have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court (Kansas State: 9-2 at home). 18 points is just too much wood to lay in this spot. Take Texas Tech as a big underdog tonight.
MTi Sports
Kings at Timberwolves
Prediction: over
The Kings are 11-0 OU (15.2 ppg) after a win on the road in which Jason Thompson had more turnovers than assists, 7-0 OU (13.6 ppg) after a win on the road in which Tyreke Evans was not the Kings' high scorer and 5-0 OU (18.0 ppg) with no rest after a win on the road in which Demarcus Cousins had a double-double. Consider the Kings and T-Wolves OVER.
Teddy Covers
Florida @ Kentucky
PICK: Florida
The Florida Gators have just about everything I like to look for out of a road underdog. We’ve seen the Gators in this role twice already this season at Ohio State and at Syracuse; two teams – like the Kentucky squad they’ll face tonight – with legitimate national championship potential. Florida was in both games right through the final buzzer, losing by four and seven points while covering the pointspread in both instances.
This is nothing new or different for Billy Donovan’s Gators. This team has the type of veteran leadership we love to see in the backcourt, with senior guard Erving Walker and junior guard Kenny Boynton combining for 191 career starts between them. No surprise then, that in the Walker-Boynton era, Florida is 16-5-1 ATS as underdogs. And this year’s Gator team might be the best of the bunch!
Florida ranks #5 in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio, avoiding the type of careless ball handling mistakes that flummox so many teams against the Wildcats pressure. And Florida ranks #1 in the country in made three pointers per game, making more than 10 trifectas per game while connecting at a better than 40% clip. We’re talking about a ‘live’ underdog that can play with poise, won’t be intimidated facing a quality team in a hostile environment, with the potential to shoot their way into a backdoor cover late if they fall behind by margin early.
Kentucky has struggled repeatedly in this ‘big home favorite’ role all year long; overvalued by the betting markets for much of the season. There’s no questioning the talent that John Calipari has brought into Lexington – his roster is loaded with future NBA lottery picks. But since blowing out Marist in their regular season home opener, the Wildcats have managed to cover the spread in only two of their last 14 home games, a track record of failure that gets me into play against them once again tonight. Take Florida.