Tony George
Creighton -5.5
The Blue Jays own Evansville, 6-0 the last 6 SU and by far are the better team here. Creighton is a cover machine for those not paying attention, 21-9 ATS their last 30 games, unreal! They are also a legit Top 20 Team, and Doug McDermott (coaches son) is one of the top 10 players in the nation.
Evansville is no slouch either at 11-3 ATSD their last 11. The KEY here is the fact Creighton is coming off a road loss at Northern Iowa and will want to get back in the winners circle here tonight and their backcourt is far superior here. The Purple Aces playing some decent ball even though they have a losing record Creighton beat them by 6 at home already in a game where Evansville shot 58% from the floor. The Aces have dropped 3 out of their last 4 including a 9 point home loss to Indiana State in OT. Creighton on the war path tonight, look for a big win here with a focused team.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
GOLDEN STATE +2.5 over Oklahoma City: Boy this pains me a bit to be on the same side of the sharps in this one as i really don't feel like they're worth SHIT (that's for another rant i am composing), but I do feel that this play is sound. Oklahoma City has been involved in 5 huge games in a row (Clipps, Dallas, Memphis, Spurs and Portland) and that has to take alot out of a team. last night they won on the road in OT, in comeback fashion vs Portland and must turn around and play the next night (2-5 ATS on zero rest this year) vs a Golden State squad that will be looking for revenge for an earlier 11 point home loss to the Thunder. This is not a great spot for Oklahoma City. The Warriors are just 6-7 but in their last 6 home games they have beat Utah by 18, Portland by 8 and they have 1 and 3 point losses to Memphis and Indiana respectively. Golden State looks ready for that big home win and I feel tonight is the perfect spot for them to get it.
Cleveland/ Miami Under 198.5: The Heat are one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 103.2 ppg, but still in their last 9 games they have reached the century mark just twice and that includes a home game vs the Cavs in which they put up just 92 points. Cleveland has not played defense all that badly this year as they have allowed just 96.7 ppg and they have even been better of late, allowing just 93.8 ppg in their last 5 games. Miami has played good defense as well this year as they have allowed just 95.5 ppg overall, while at home the have allowed just 92.2 ppg. Miami has allowed 91 points or less in 4 of their last 6 home games and should have no problems holding down this Cavs team that has averaged just 93.1 ppg on the road and 91.8 ppg in their last 5 overall. There should be more than enough defense and enough weak scoring from the Cavs to keep this one well under the number.
2 UNIT PLAY
Charlotte/ Boston Under 176: Celtic home games have averaged just 170.7 thanks mainly to a defense that has allowed just 81.7 ppg in their home games. Now they face a Charlotte team that has averaged just 85.4 ppg on the road and 90.2 ppg in their last 5 overall. Boston's offense is coming a round of late and Charlotte has played horrible defense, but this could be a flat spot for this Boston offense after games with NY and Memphis and with the Lakers on deck. I don't see the Celts going all out in this one and that should keep their scoring down and we know the Bobcats won't score either.
1 UNIT PLAY
Utah +9 over INDIANA: PLay on road teams after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread if they are playing 9 or more games in 14 days. This play is 42-22 the last 5 seasons.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Auburn/ Alabama Over 119.5: Auburn is not a team that will play some high scoring games, but their conference games have averaged 123 ppg on the year and they are off a non-OT game in which 179 points were scored. Auburn has struggled to score at times and despite averaging 69.5 ppg at home overall, they have averaged just 61 ppg in their SEC home games. Still 61 points would be a good number for them to get here. They should be able to hit at least that number as Alabama has struggled at the defensive end of late, where they have allowed 67 ppg in their last 5 games. Losing Tony Mitchell won't help at this end of the floor as he was 3rd on team in steal, 2nd in rebounding and 1st in blocked shots.The Could also miss him offensively as he was their second leading scorer (13.1 ppg), but he wasn't a great shooter (45%) and he was horrible for the FT line (61.5%), so that part won't be missed. Alabama's conference games have averaged 127.9 ppg, with them scoring 65 ppg in those games, while their last 4 SEC games have averaged 133 ppg, with the Tide putting up 66.5 ppg during that stretch. Both offense have done well of late and Bama is missing a key defensive presence so I will look for both teams to hit the 60 point mark in a game. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over - All teams where the total is 119.5 or less (ALABAMA) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins and they have won 60-80% or more of their games on the season. This play is 40-17 the last 5 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
CLEMSON -8.5 over Maryland: Defense will be the key to this game. The Terps are 0-4 in true road games this year and they have allowed 81.5 ppg on 46.5% shooting in those games. Overall the Terps have allowed 70.5 ppg (262nd) on 43.4% shooting (200th), while in their last 56 games overall they have allowed 78.8 ppg on 45% shooting, so this is not a team that plays great defense. Clemson has played great defense this year as they have allowed just 60.3 ppg (26th) on 42.3% shooting (142nd), while at home they have been even more impressive holding their opponents to just 56.7 ppg on 40.7% shooting. Maryland does get the edge on offense, but still in their last 5 games they have averaged just 4 ppg more than Clemson, while Clemson has allowed 11.8 ppg less than the Terps over that stretch. Clemson has the HUGE defensive edge in this one and they are at home, where they are 3-1 in ACC play, with a 7 point loss to Duke and a 20 point win over FSU on their home resume. The Tigers should take this one by DD.
Iowa State +2 Over OKLAHOMA STATE: Google News Play. Really was looking to stay away from the side in this one as I see a lot of people are on the Cyclones, but in looking over the game more and more I feel they are the right side. ISU has been rolling of late, while OSU has been struggling, but don't expect ISU to take the Cowboys lightly here, especially since they recently beat Missouri on this floor. Other than that Missouri win, the Cowboys have only beaten Texas Tech in their last 6 league games. After the way they have been playing the Cyclones are still on the outside of the Top 25 and that may make them a bit angry here because of that I don't expect a flat spot for them after wins over Oklahoma, Kansas and KSU. It may be tough for the Cowboys to get up for this one after coming so close to getting revenge vs a Baylor squad that beat them by 41 in the first meeting. Though Oklahoma State has been fairly impressive at home this season, the Cyclones have been playing much better than the Pokes lately and the home court advantage won't be enough to shift things the Cowboys' way.
Oklahoma/ State/ Iowa State Under 139: I like to get my Google plays out earlier and at that time I was still undecided if i wanted to make a play on the total, so since i really liked the side at that point I went with that play for my Google play. Yes the cyclones have hit 72= points in each of their last 3 games, but they will be playing an OSU team that has allowed just 61.9 ppg at home, including holding a very good Baylor offense to just 64 points in their last home game. Iowa State has been average on the defensive end this year as they have allowed 66.8 ppg overall and 66.6 ppg on the road, but they have been better at that end of late allowing just 63.6 ppg in their last 5 games. Now OSU may be able to defense but this team has had problems scoring in the Big 12, where they are averaging just 65.9 ppg. I firmly believe that ISU will win this one, but the defense on both teams will keep either team from hitting 70 points in this one.
2 UNIT PLAY
Kentucky/ Florida Over 142: Yes the Cats have allowed just 48 ppg in their last 4 games, but Georgia, LSU South Carolina, and Tennesee do not possess the kind of firepower the Gators have. Not even close. Florida has averaged 80.5 ppg on the year and 70.7 ppg on the road. The Gators have also hit 40.2% from long range this year, while the Cats have allowed 37.5% from downtown in their last 5 games. Florida has struggled with defense on the road, where they have allowed 71.7 ppg, while Kentucky averages 82.1 ppg at home. I feel that both teams are more than capable of 71 ppg in this one and while it won't be easy I do see this one going over late in the game.
1 UNIT PLAY
AUBURN +5.5 over Alabama: Play on a home team if they are a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after allowing 85 points or more and are playing against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG). This play is 31-6 the last 5 seasons.