Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, February 8,2011

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers

The SIxers travel to Atlanta with double revenge on their minds from a pair of losses suffered this season against the Hawks. With Philadelphia off a 14-point loss at New York and Atlanta off a 7-point road win at Washington, look for the Sixers to improve to 13-6 ATS as a dog off loss this season as they make it four straight ATS wins in a row in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Tom Freese

Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder

Memphis is 27-26 straight up this year are 10-26-2 ATS their last 38 Tuesday games. The Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS their last 5 meetings in Oklahoma City and they are 1-6 ATS their last 7 meetings with the Thunder. Oklahoma City is 33-17 straight up this year. The Thunder are 39-19-1 ATS their last 59 Tuesday games. Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS vs. NBA SOUTHWEST teams. The Thunder are 6-2 ATS their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of less than 40%. The Thunder are 5-2 ATS off an ATS WINNER.

MTi Sports

Grizzlies at Thunder
Prediction: Under

The Memphis Grizzlies are 0-9 OU in franchise history with no rest after a home loss in which their opponent shot more than eight three-pointers and made at least half of them, staying under by an average of 22.7 ppg. he SDQL text is: team=Grizzlies and p:HL and rest=0 and po:TPP>=50 and po:TPA>8 Consider the Grizzlies and Thunder UNDER.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Tennessee at Kentucky

Vols HC Bruce Pearl returns to the bench following an eight-game suspension by the SEC to find his team getting 9.5 points from the oddsmakers against a Kentucky squad off back to back losses. With UT coming in at 26-15 ATS as an underdog under Pearl, we'll gladly grab the points as this is an overlay. Take the points.

Play on: Tennessee

Matt Fargo

George Mason vs. NC Wilmington
Play: NC Wilmington +9.5

We catch a great number at home with UNC-Wilmington where it is 8-3 on the season including a win last time out on Saturday over William & Mary. That snapped a four-game losing streak for the Seahawks and got them to 5-0 in the CAA. UNC-Wilmington was not a very good team on Dec. 4 when it went to George Mason and got roughed up 80-52. The Seahawks have improved quite a bit since then as team chemistry has gotten much better and they will be out for some payback. This is as much of a play against George Mason as it is on UNC-Wilmington. The Patriots have won nine straight games and have covered 10 straight games and provides huge value going the other way as linesmakers have no choice but to keep inflating these lines. George Mason has done a great job at covering as big favorites but with the big number along with the fact this is a letdown spot following a big win over the weekend against Old Dominion, the Patriots fall into the bounce angle. When looking at the home and road splits, there is not a big difference between these two teams statistically. The Patriots are outscoring opponents on the road at just over eight ppg while the Seahawks are outscoring opponents at home by just under six ppg. George Mason is +4.5 percent in shooting margin including 5.6 percent from long range while UNC-Wilmington is not far behind at 3.0 percent and 2.4 percent respectively. Free throw shooting meanwhile is dead even. This is one place where the Patriots have notoriously struggles as the home team is 20-5-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings and this includes the Patriots going 1-10-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Wilmington. The Seahawks are 19-9 against the Patriots at Trask Coliseum and they have won seven of the last 10 meetings at Trask. George Mason has won two straight in Wilmington but by a total of six points and the last seven games between the two clubs in Wilmington have been decided by seven points or less. 3* UNC-Wilmington Seahawks

Frank Jordan

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves

I had a hunch on Minnesota last night to win outright in New Orleans, but didn't give it out. This time I am sticking with my gut as they are moving onto Houston for another big road game. Houston is coming off a big road of their own as they beat the Nuggets in Denver. Houston has now won three in a row, but were just 2-5 before this three game stretch. Look for Houston to be tired after the tough game and the travel home as Minnesota was closer and is young and will prevail in the end. Play Minnesota

Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Philadelphia 76ers +4.5

The Sixers are 10-2 ats vs South East Division teams, 6-1 ats off a loss of 10 or more points, 21-9 ats with revenge and have covered 15 of 21 vs winning teams. Atlanta has taken a pair of tight games vs Philly this season. However they are 2-6 ats as a home favorite from -3.5 to -6 and 3-7 ats off 3 or more wins. They have also failed to cover in 5 of 7 games with 2 days rest. Look for the Sixers to hang around and give Atlanta another big game here tonight. Tale the Points with Philadelphia.

BIG AL

Tennessee @ Kentucky
PICK: Tennessee +9

The Vols lost their last game to Alabama, at home in Knoxville, but get their head coach, Bruce Pearl, back tonight after he served his 8-game suspension. That's good news for the Vols, who went 5-3 in his absence. More good news: Tennessee is 19-1 ATS as road dogs of +2 points or more in games off a home conference loss. Take Tennessee.

NICK PARSONS

Philadelphia @ Atlanta
PICK: Philadelphia +5

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors:

Philadelphia is 31-18-1 ATS this year, including 16-9-1 ATS on the road; on Sunday it lost 117-103 in New York though; that was the second game of a home and home scenario for these teams, with the 76er's taking the first game 100-98 on their home floor.

Note that Philadelphia is 21-9 ATS this year when revenging a loss vs. an opponent; also 6-1 ATS after a loss by 10-points or more.

On the other side of the court: The Hawks are 24-27 ATS this year, including just 9-15 ATS at the "Highlight Factory"; on the 5th they beat the Wizards 99-92 as 2-point favorites.

Atlanta is a poor 3-7 ATS this are after three or more consecutive SU victories; also just 2-5 ATS when playing with two-days of rest and just 2-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3 1/2 to 6-points.

Bottom line: Philadelphia plays with "double revenge" here having lost 104-101 on November 29th on its home floor and 93-88 on December 3rd in Atlanta.

Elton Brand totaled 61-points in the two games vs. the Knicks; “…We had a great streak and we’re playing really well, so we need to regroup and get on to Atlanta,” said Brand.

You may want to consider a second look at the PHILADELPHIA 76ers tonight!

Jack Jones

Atlanta Hawks -5

I'll take the Atlanta Hawks Tuesday as just a small home favorite over the Philadelphia 76ers. Atlanta is in the midst of their best run of the season as they are 12-4 in their last 16 games overall, including three straight victories. The Hawks have won four of their last five meetings with the Philadelphia 76ers as well. Atlanta is 17-7 at home this season, while Philly is just 7-19 on the road.

The 76ers are 0-8 ATS after 2 consecutive division games over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are 22-10 ATS in home games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is winning in this spot by 10.4 PPG and they are really taking care of the basketball, which is a big reason for their success over the past month. They have committed 13 or fewer turnovers in 11 straight games now. The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Great value here with the home favorite. Take Atlanta Tuesday.

Jim Feist

Raptors at Bucks
Pick: Raptors

Toronto comes off a 111-100 win over Minnesota and has had 3 full days to rest before this one. Milwaukee has been battling injuries and not playing well, on a 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS run. They were a 6.5 point favorite the last game over the Pistons and lost, 89-78. This is not a powerful offense and they need a lot of points to cover this big number. The Bucks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Play the Toronto Raptors!

Telly

17-6 Last 2 weeks ATS NCAA Hoops

Xavier +4.5 and Buffalo -16.

SPORTS WAGERS

San Jose +121 over WASHINGTON

What great value on the Sharkies over the past couple of weeks and it continues here. Here’s a team that ran over folks for years in the regular season but subsequently bowed out in the playoffs. This year’s edition just might be the Sharkies best team of them all but the standings say otherwise. They sit in sixth place tied with the Ducks and just a point ahead of Calgary. The Kings are two back for the final playoff spot and thus every game is important. The Sharks have won three in a row, seven of eight and has picked up 15 of a possible 16 points over that stretch. During that span they beat the Ducks, Bruins, Canucks and Coyotes all on the road and beating that quartet in their own building is serious stuff. San Jose’s only loss over that stretch was in Los Angeles in a game that went into OT. Now they’ll play a Caps team that has won two straight over TB and Pitt but so what. Pitt was without the dynamic duo and they played well versus the Bolts. Prior to that the Caps had won four of their last 12 games. The four wins were over the Islanders, Leafs, Panthers and Sens. What that group has in common is that they’re all going to miss the playoffs. A great start to the season has the Caps overpriced. Washington has turned into an average team with an average offense and a below average defense. The Sharkies chances of winning here are outstanding and thus they offer up nothing but value. Play: San Jose +121 (Risking 2 units).

Columbus +135 over PITTSBURGH

Everyone knows that Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are out and that makes winning for the Pens very difficult. Well, add center Mark Letestu to that list along with Mike Comrie, who has been out since late November and what you have is four centers on the rack with three of them being true impact players. The Penguins are in trouble and there’s just no way you can lay 45 cents with them at this point. The Jackets disappeared for a while but appear to be back. They’re playing with a lot more grit these days and are coming off back-to-back wins over the Oilers and Red Wings. Columbus has picked up points in seven of its last nine games and even in their two regulation losses over that stretch they were the better team on the ice. No doubt they can pull off this upset. Play: Columbus +135 (Risking 2 units).

St. Louis +109 over FLORIDA

Hockey teams have tendencies and every year the Blues go a little nuts after the break and as a result big things are expected from them the following year. This season looks like another repeat of that, as the Blue Notes sit in second last place in the West, ahead of only the Oilers. They’ve picked up three of a possible four points in two games since the break and with some key healthy bodies back look for some strong value on this team the rest of the way. The Blues are as talented as many teams above them in the standings. With T.J. Oshie and Andy MacDonald back in the mix they’re much more dangerous now and will face a Panther team returning home from a five-game trip. It was a decent trip in which the Panthers went 2-3 with an OT loss thrown in but they could’ve gone 5-0, as all three losses were by a single goal. That’s five intense road games in a row for the Panthers, making this assignment even more difficult. Blue Notes are coming off a solid game in Tampa and anything close to that effort gets us to the cashier’s window here. Play: St. Louis +109 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia +4½/+164 over ATLANTA

Shouldn’t the 76ers be a bigger dog than this after losing by 14 to the Knicks on Sunday as an exact same 4½-point pooch? The Hawks are clearly a better club than the Knicks and it’s worth noting that the game in New York was played on Super Bowl Sunday and a ton of bets on that game was placed with the Knicks taking most of it. Lots of people cashed in against the 76ers and now they’re taking back the exact same price against a seemingly stronger team that has reeled off three in a row and that’s won 17 of 24 home games. The line strongly suggests a big response by the 76ers and we’re buying it. Play: Philadelphia +4½ (Risking 1.08 units to win 1) Play: Philadelphia +162 (Risking 1 unit).