Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Milwaukee Bucks -7.5
The Toronto Raptors have really struggled on the road, checking into this contest at 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. Looking back, the Raptors are a poor 18-38-3 ATS in their last 59 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has been strong in the favorite role. In fact, the Bucks are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Off 4 straight defeats, expect the Bucks to be out for blood on their home floor tonight. It is worth noting that they are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games after 2 or more consecutive losses. The Raptors will be looking for some revenge after an overtime loss at home to these Bucks on Jan. 28. Revenge, however, isn't likely tonight. Consider that plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points looking to avenge a loss in which its opponent scored 100 points or more, playing with 3 or more days rest, are 85-39 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are losing by an average of 9.0 points. Bet the Bucks.
Scott Spreitzer
Memphis @ Oklahoma
PICK: Memphis +7
Memphis received good news early Tuesday morning when Rudy Gay (back) was updated to probable for tonight's tilt. Memphis has been outstanding playing in the second game in as many night's producing an 11-3-1 ATS record. The Grizzlies have also been an excellent dog of late going 17-3 ATS the last 20 times despite last night's SU/ATS loss to the Lakers. Zach Randolph has had his way with the Thunder in the last two meetings and I expect more of the same tonight. And let's not forget, before losing their last two games, the Grizzlies were on an 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS "heater." Memphis also hasn't been phased by Laker contests. They have covered their last two games immediately following a contest against Kobe and company. I believe the line is too high and I'm backing the Grizzlies plus the points on Tuesday.
EZWINNERS
Oklahoma City Thunder -7
The Thunder have won six out of their last seven games and have had two days of rest since their win in Utah on Saturday. The Grizzlies come into this game playing their fourth game in five nights and this is the second of a back to back after losing to the Lakers at home last night. Memphis looked like a tired team last night against LA as they shot the ball very poorly and after the big game against the defending champs last night I question how much energy Memphis will have tonight. The Thunder have won five out of the last seven meetings between these two teams and the favorite is 11-5 against the spread in the last sixteen meetings between these teams. Lay the points.
JR O'Donnell
Tampa Bay -145
The 35-24 Over all Tampa Bay Lightning match up real real well here vs the High Flying 26-29 Sabres. These Lightning check in here @ 14-7 as a home favorite and on the flip side the Sabres are 7-10 as a road dog! The reckless and wide open play by the Sabres is all we need to push a strong move on the TB lightning. The Sabres do not have the raw speed that the Lightning have and the Sabres allow over 30 shots per game!! The Lightning check in here at 6th in the League on the "POWER PLAY". The TB speed will create a ton of penalties for the visitors. The Lightning are hot and they only allowed 12 goals in the last 7 games. They have scored 24 in that period !!! These Tampa Lightning are a solid complete team as they have very few breakdowns in their transition from end to end! These Sabres are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. Southeast & these Lightning are 20-6 in their last 26 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 Tampa Bay by 2 Goals.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Memphis Grizzlies +7.5
Expect the Grizzlies to give the OKC all it wants and more tonight. Memphis is an impressive 14-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, only losing these games by an average score of 101.2 to 99.9. The Grizzlies are also 11-3 ATS when playing on back-to-back days this season, winning by an average score of 99.6 to 96.5 in this situation. Take the generous amount of points the odds makers are handing us tonight.
Black Widow
1* on Oklahoma City Thunder -7
The Memphis Grizzlies are in the toughest spot any NBA team could possibly be in tonight, and as a result we will fade them. Memphis is playing their 4th game in 5 days and their 5th game in 7 days, while also coming off a loss to the defending champion L.A. Lakers last night. Not only will they be exhausted, they will also have a hard time getting up for the Oklahoma City Thunder after playing the world champs. OKC is 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last ten meetings with Memphis, and each victory has come by seven points or more. While the Grizzlies are tired, the Thunder come into this game on 2 days' rest so they will be fresh and ready to get after it. OKC is 18-7 at home this season scoring 107.2 points/game, whereas Memphis is 11-18 on the road putting up only 97.0 points/game. Take the Thunder and lay the points.
Steve Janus
2* Spurs -6½
Great time to favor the Spurs tonight, as San Antonio has had three days off to rest up and get ready for this game. The Spurs are 15-7 ATS in road games this season. San Antonio comes in off a 113-100 win at Sacramento last Friday, and are 14-6 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. Detroit also won by more than 10 points in their last game, but they are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Detroit is just 6-20 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Wunderdog
Sharks vs. Capitals
Play: Under 5.5
The Washington Capitals have a reputation for being an explosive offensive team. That has not been the case for most of this season and they continue to play to 5.5 total lines. They are now 18-3-1 in their last 22 games overall to the UNDER. That includes 8-0-1 to the UNDER in their last nine played on home ice. The numbers become 25-6 to the UNDER when the Caps are playing after allowing 2 or less in their last game, as is the case tonight. San Jose is now 9-4 to the UNDER after their last 13 wins, and the last four times these clubs have met in Washington there has not been a single OVER. This one stays UNDER the total.
TEDDY COVERS
Memphis @ Oklahoma City
PICK: Memphis +7
The Memphis Grizzlies are on the road on the second night of back-to-backs; playing their fourth game in five nights. It’s a classic ‘bad spot’ that successful NBA bettors are trained to look for. Memphis is playing without their top bench producer OJ Mayo, and leading scorer Rudy Gay hurt his back in a home loss to the Lakers last night. All signs point towards an easy Oklahoma City win, right? WRONG!!
First, we like Memphis in these tough spots, particularly on the highway. The results don’t lie. Lionel Hollins squad is 12-3 ATS on the second night of back-to-backs, consistently exceeding market expectations. The last time they played in a four games in five nights situation, they won outright by nine as 5.5 point road underdogs.
Second, we like Memphis off a loss, and we like them even more off a couple of losses. This team has been pointspread gold off two consecutive defeats – they haven’t lost three straight since before Christmas. Their last four times in this role – off two straight losses – they’ve won SU against the Lakers, Pistons, Pacers and Rockets, with three of those SU and ATS wins coming on the highway.
Third, we like Memphis as an underdog. Again, the numbers don’t lie. This team has been an undervalued commodity for most of the season; the third best team in the NBA against the spread this year. As a dog, the Grizz are on a 19-5 pointspread run, an extended streak of excellence that has gone completely under-the-radar. Memphis still offers value in the same role that they’ve been cashing tickets for months!
And lastly, Oklahoma City is all banged up right now too. Defensive stopper Thabo Sefolosha has a bad knee, managing only 28 minutes of court time in the Thunder’s last five games. Emerging low post start Serge Ibaka is not expected to suit up at all, leaving the Grizzlies low post duo of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph primed for a big night tonight. 2* Take Memphis.
Info Plays
3* Atlanta Hawks -4
Reasons why Atlanta will cover:
1) The Hawks are 15-2 in their last 17 games at home, and getting them as a small favorite is something we simply can't pass up.
2) Atlanta is 40-25 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons. The average score in those games was Atlanta 100.9, Opponent 94.2!
3) Philadelphia is 0-8 ATS after 2 consecutive division games over the last 3 seasons, and just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
OC Dooley
Kentucky -9
One has to wonder why a Kentucky contingent coming off consecutive losses and facing an opponent who is finally getting back their suspended head coach, would be asked to lay this many points. The relatively high price tag is even more shocking when you consider that for the first time since way back in the 1990 campaign, Kentucky has only a .500 record halfway through their Southeast Conference schedule. But it is worth considering that Tennessee who shot a dreadful 35% from the field last time on the floor have been WITHOUT lead scorer Scotty Hopson (ankle) each of the last two contests and his status for this big rivalry clash is in question. Kentucky certainly has plenty of offensive firepower including Brandon Knight whose per game averages last week (24 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists) were outstanding. It is rather remarkable that the Wildcats currently have a #18 national ranking since they had to replace the entire roster from a year ago. Even with Bruce Pearl coaching on the sidelines, Tennessee has had recent problems in this rivalry series (2-5 SU/1-6 ATS). Dating all the way back to the 1997 campaign Kentucky has been almost automatic (14-4 ATS) after an eight-game stretch where they “failed” to cover the spread 6 different times
Scott Delaney
L.A. Clippers at ORLANDO (-9')
While the Clippers are coming to town for their third road tilt in five days, the Magic are coming in a tad peeved after a mediocre couple of weeks.
Perhaps that's why everyone is still talk about the Heat and Celtics, when discussing the 'best' teams in the conference, and leaving out the 2009 Eastern Conference champs.
Though the Magic are a measly 6-5 straight-up in their last 11 games, they have a chance to build some momentum with a blowoutwin, as the lowly Clippers are 3-17 away from Los Angeles, and ride in mired in a 1-5 ATS slide on the road.
The Clippers are also sans their second-best player, Eric Gordon, and are spoting a dismal 2-5 mark without him in the lineup, including Sunday's 97-79 blowout loss to Miami.
I love watching this kid Blake Griffin, but if there is one person I can count on to put the clamps on the assured Rookie of the Year, it's The Magic have been at their best hosting weak competition. They are 19-10-1 ATS versus foes with a losing road record. If anybody can slow down Blake Griffin it's two-time Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard.
Lay the chalk with the Magic.
1♦ ORLANDO
Chris Jordan
Toronto (+7') at MILWAUKEE
Toronto has had three days off for the first time since Christmas. The Raptors just ended their horrific 13-game losing streak with a resounding 111-100 home victory against Minnesota this past Friday.
Beating Minnesota at home isn't a big deal. So there's no big cause for celebration. But the Raptors do have their two best players healthy, Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani.
Milwaukee isn't exactly setting the league on fire either. The banged-up Bucks have lost four in a row. Injuries have forced Bucks coach Scott Skiles to employ 16 different starting lineups this season.
The Bucks have John Salmons back, although he's yet to play well coming off the bench after being out eight games with a hip injury. Drew Gooden remains out for Milwaukee and Andrew Bogut isn't 100 percent.
Milwaukee is the much superior defensive club. But the Bucks rank last in scoring and shooting percentage. It's hard to lay this many points when you are only averaging 91 points a game, 87.6 points in their last five games.
Toronto, by contrast, is averaging 99.2 points per game. The two teams met Jan. 28 in Toronto and the Bucks won, 116-110, in overtime. The Raptors nearly beat the Bucks despite Milwaukee shooting 55.3 percent from the floor. The Raptors shot 46.7 percent from the field and made only one of 10 3-point shots.
3♦ TORONTO
Joel Tyson
Indiana (+14) at PURDUE
Free play for Tuesday is to back Indiana plus the double-digits at Purdue tonight.
The Hoosiers have definitely been playing a more competitive brand of basketball, as Tom Crean's team has covered in 5 of their last 7 games overall, and they do own upset outright wins over Minnesota and Illinois in that stretch.
Purdue is just 3-4 straight up their last 7 games, and 2-5 against the spread in those 7 contests.
Series numbers show the Boilers with 3 straight wins, but against the spread it has been all Indy plus the points, as the Hoosiers have covered 4 in a row, and they have also covered 8 of the last 10 in this Big 10 rivalry.
I say take the double-digits and look for Indiana to stay inside of the impost once again.
2♦ INDIANA
Derek Mancini
Indiana at PURDUE (-14)
Strange line here. Although it's not unusual to have a ranked opponent with a solid record highly favored over a much weaker conference foe. But what is unusual is the amount of points we're getting with an Indiana team that is no longer "flying under the radar." The public (and of course, the oddsmakers) have become keenly aware of what this Hoosiers team is capable of, and for that reason, we're actually seeing more action on Indiana here (55% to 45%).
Given that fact, its seems might generous of oddsmakers to be giving us this many points with Indiana in this match up. The first thought that comes to my head when looking at this line is: Indiana is going to get exposed on the road tonight. Yes, the Boilermakers have lost two of their L3 games, but in the lone game at home they won and covered against a solid Minnesota team (as a 9-point chalk). They also easily won and covered against Michigan State in the home game prior. My point is the Hoosiers are in for trouble tonight.
For as good a bet as Indiana has been at home (6-3 ATS), they've been unable to maintain the same kind of focus on the road (3-6 ATS). True, they hung close with Michigan State in their last roadie, but went 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS in their other 6 road games this season. Again, I can't help but feel the Hoosiers are going to revert back to their sloppy ways tonight at Mackey Arena. Recall the last time they played here they got blown out by 19 points. Long story short, the line is the key here. While the public beleives they're getting value with the supposedly "red-hot" Hoosiers, my clients and I know better. Purdue BIG over Indiana Tuesday.
3♦ PURDUE
Michael Cannon
Cincinnati (-9') at DePAUL
Lay the points with Cincinnati on the road over DePaul.
Cincinnati is coming off a 12-point loss at Pitt on Saturday, but actually showed something to me by coming back from over 20 points down late in the game to rally and makes things interesting there at the end.
Cincinnati leads the Big East in scoring defense and should continue to have success against a DePaul team that ranks 12th in the conference in scoring.
The Blue Demons continue to struggle and I don’t see them keeping this game close, especially going against a Bearcat team that grabbed 23 offensive rebounds against Pitt. Everybody knows how strong Pitt is on the boards and if Cincinnati duplicates that feat tonight you’re looking at a 20-point win here.
Lay the points with Cincinnati on the road for the win and cover.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Karl Garrett
George Mason (-9') at UNC WILMINGTON
As for tonight's free play, very hard to make a case against the Patriots of George Mason right now, as George Mason has won 9 straight games. George Mason has also covered 10 straight games. The Patriots whipped UNC Wilmington by an 80-52 count back in December to make it 6 straight series wins, and covers in 5 of those 6 series wins.
The Seahawks are just 2-6 straight up their last 8 games, and only 2-4-1 against the spread their last 7 lined contests.
Until George Mason shows some signs of slowing down, you have to ride their bandwagon and just lay the points each time they are on the hardwood.
Patriots notch another win and cover tonight.
4♦ GEORGE MASON
Bobby Maxwell
N. Iowa (-1') at EVANSVILLE
For my comp selection, Northern Iowa has absolutely dominated Evansville, winning nine of the last 10 meetings since 2006, including a 65-53 win at home back on Jan. 4. I’ve got no problem laying the small chalk with the Panthers tonight.
Northern Iowa had its eight-game winning streak snapped at Drake on Saturday, falling 72-69 as a four-point favorite, snapping a three-game road winning streak. The Panthers give up just 58.5 points per game this season and it’s that defense that will get them the win and cover in Evansville tonight.
The Purple Aces have allowed 67 points per game this season and they are coming off a 75-68 loss at Creighton on Saturday.
The Panthers are on ATS surges of 36-15 against teams with winning records and 22-10 on the road against teams with winning marks. In this rivalry, Northern Iowa is on a 7-1 ATS streak and 4-1 in Evansville.
Go ahead and lay the small chalk tonight as Northern Iowa wins this one with ease.
2♦ NORTHERN IOWA
Craig Davis
Tennessee (+9) at KENTUCKY
Today's free play is on the Tennessee Vols over Kentucky at Rupp Arena. I believe Kentucky is laying too many points here tonight, especially after coming off a very emotional loss at Florida.
Wildcat backers will say Kentucky will use that game as motivation, but I don't agree. If anything, Tennessee has more to play for than Kentucky.
The Vols are the team sitting in second place in the SEC East, not Kentucky. They are the team that has played so sporadically this season, yet has the talent to be a top 25 team all season.
Yes, I do fully understand that Kentucky is unbeaten at home (10-0) and the home team in this series is 4-0 in the last four meetings, but the Wildcats simply aren't blowing teams out right now, winning by an average of 5 PPG over their last seven wins. Their last double-digit wins came in mid-January, when the beat lowly LSU and Auburn at home.
The last time the Vols lost a game in the SEC by double digits this year was, well, never. It hasn't happened this year and I see no reason why it should start tonight.
Expect a close game that Kentucky ultimately wins, but doesn't cover. Kentucky 78 Tennessee 72.
3♦ TENNESSEE
Stephen Nover
Utah (+17') at SAN DIEGO STATE
This is a lot of points for San Diego State to lay in this Mountain West Conference matchup, especially since the Aztecs haven't been playing that well lately and are banged-up.
San Diego State had trouble with TCU, which is 1-8 in the Mountain West, at home in its last game before winning, 60-53. The Horned Frogs were within five points during the final minute against the Aztecs.
The Aztecs nipped Colorado State, 56-54, on the road in their second-to-last game. So the Aztecs are averaging just 58 points in their last two games. They have shot under 40 percent during three of their past seven games.
It's tough to cover a big number when you're not scoring a lot of points.
Utah hung tough at home against the sixth-ranked Aztecs when they met on Jan. 8 losing, 71-62. The Utes led at halftime and trailed by just one with less than nine minutes left before San Diego State pulled away.
Utah has covered four of the past five in the series against San Diego State.
The Aztecs use an eight-man rotation. They don't have a lot of depth. That could factor in this matchup as starting guard Chase Tapley and forward Tim Shelton both were injured this past Saturday against TCU. Tapley injured his ankle, while Shelton hurt his foot.
2♦ UTAH
Chuck O'Brien
Utah (+17') at SAN DIEGO STATE
For Tuesday’s complimentary college basketball selection, take Utah as a road underdog at San Diego State.
The Aztecs are now 23-1 and up to No. 6 in the country, but aside from a 96-57 rout of Wyoming on Jan. 29, they’ve hardly been dominant in Mountain West Conference action. Since beating Wyoming, San Diego State barely got past Colorado State 56-54 on the road (winning on a last-second shot) and it was less than impressive in Saturday’s 60-53 win (as a 20½-point chalk).
Take out the Wyoming win and the Aztecs would be on a four-game non-covering streak, and their average margin of victory in league play would be 8.6 points per game. That includes a 71-62 victory over Utah in Salt Lake City, with the Utes cashing as an 11½-point underdog.
Indeed, the Utes have hit the skids again – they lost their first three league games, won their next three and now have once again lost three in a row. But only once has Utah been blown out in a conference game (104-79 home loss to BYU), and in fact it has cashed in three straight road games (winning two outright). The Utes are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings against San Diego State.
During their 1-4 ATS slump, the Aztecs have scored just 60, 56, 58 and 68 points in the non-covers, and now they’re being asked to win by nearly 20? That’s a tall order, even for a tremendous defense that’s held seven of nine Mountain West foes to 62 points or less, with six scoring 57 points or less. Keep this in mind, too: SDSU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five when laying 13 points or more (all at home), 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in its last four following a victory, and the underdog has cashed in four straight meetings between these schools.
4♦ UTAH
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Philadelphia 76ers +4.5
Right away I like the fact that road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) with 6 or 7 wins in their last 8 games and a winning percentage between 45 and 55 percent on the season, are a terrific 63-32 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of 3.6 points. Philly is also an incredible 17-4 ATS versus good shooting teams making >=46% of their shots this season, defeating these clubs by an average of 1.0 point. Also, the 76ers are 9-1 ATS in road games off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons and the Hawks are 1-8 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Atlanta has won the first 2 meetings this season, but I fully expect the third time to be a charm for Philly. Take the points.