DAVE COKIN
TOLEDO AT BUFFALO
PLAY: TOLEDO +2.5
More college same season revenge here. Buffalo was a wire to wire winner in the first meeting, as the Rockets were outplayed for all 40 minutes by the Bulls. But I like Toledo’s chances of returning the favor tonight.
There are a number of parameters I look for when sizing up whether to take an avenging squad in rematches. I don’t want to reveal precisely what I look for, but one aspect that definitely comes into play for me is the power ratings. When I can find a team that’s got the better number in that regard and also has the revenge motive, I’m generally going to at least have some interest. In this case, it’s even better as I’m going to be able to grab a basket or so courtesy of the oddsmakers.
I’m happy to see that Toledo has apparently emerged from a bit of a funk that had them spiraling in the wrong direction. The Rockets had lost three in a row, with the third of those defeats absorbed against this opponent. But Toledo has rebounded sharply in its last two games. The Rockets obliterated Western Michigan, and then followed that up with a very sharp effort in a convincing win at Kent State.
Buffalo is certainly no pushover, and the Bulls are off a very nice comeback win against Eastern Michigan that extended their winning streak to four games. This team loses to play fast, and on that count, they should be able to go at the pace they enjoy against Toledo.
But for me, the bottom line here is that I’m subscribing to the old theory about it being tough for one team to defeat another twice in one season, which I do think has an element of accuracy to it when the teams are as closely matched as these two seem to be. I’m on Toledo plus the small number to salvage the season split.
Stephen Nover
San Antonio vs. Miami
Play: San Antonio -6½
No Tim Duncan. No Manu Ginobili. No problem for San Antonio. As great as Golden State is, I'm not 100 percent convinced San Antonio isn't the best team in the NBA. No team wins by more points per game, nor plays better defense than the Spurs, who are 43-8 and have covered 19 of their last 28 games.
The Spurs are on pace to set a record win differential in part due to their outstanding depth. San Antonio wins by an average of 16.1 points at home and 10.1 points on the road. Both figures lead the league.
Some pseudo wise guys believe it's square to lay points with a great team. Their perception is there is no value backing chalk. But unless the line is out of whack - which it isn't here - why not get behind a proven winner?
The Spurs shouldn't lack for motivation after getting a scare at home in their last game this past Saturday, barely beating the pathetic Lakers, 106-102. Now the Spurs head out for their annual rodeo road Trip. They play tonight in Miami then at Orlando on Wednesday before closing shop for the All-Star break. The Spurs are certainly professional and well-coached enough to focus on these matchups before going on break. The Spurs are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games following a non-spread cover for 78 percent.
San Antonio has won six of its last eight road games with its lone two defeats during this span coming versus Golden State and Cleveland. The rest of their road contests during this time frame were all easy double-digit victories.
Opponents are averaging just 91.5 points versus the Spurs. Miami is second-to-last in scoring averaging fewer than 96 points per game. There's a chance the Heat could be without their star center and NBA blocks leader, Hassan Whiteside. He missed practice Monday because of a lingering ankle injury.
This is just the Heat's second home game in a row since Jan. 6. They have played 14 of their last 17 games on the road. The Spurs have won and covered the past five in the series.
Heath Mac
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavs
Play: Dallas Mavs -1½
The Mavs have had a tough run in their last few games, playing the Spurs, Heat and Hawks, all teams likely to feature deep into the play offs. Around those three losses, the Mavs beat the Suns and are coming off a solid road win over Memphis. The Mavs can put up points okay, but sometimes allow the better teams to put up too many points with an average defense. That shouldn’t be a problem here against a Jazz team that plays outstanding defense, but owns the 26th ranked offense and relies on grinding out games. Usually if a team only put up 84 and 85 points in back to back games, we would expect them to be losses. However this Jazz side won both those games last week over the Bucks and Nuggets.
Apart from their offense, if the Jazz have a glaring weakness, it is still that they struggle to win games on the road, where they are just 8-15 SU this season. The Mavs on the other hand have been superb on their home court with a 5-10 SU and 16-9 ATS record. Interestingly, the Mavs are 11-4 ATS at home against Western Conference sides as well, while the Jazz are 5-8 ATS on the road against the West, despite often getting a solid number of points start.
Utah is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games on the road. Utah is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games on the road. Utah is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Dallas. Utah is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Dallas. Utah is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas. Dallas is 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 games when playing at home against Utah. That’s a lot of trends that point to a Mavs win and cover here.
Ben Burns
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavs
Play: Dallas Mavs -2
The Jazz come in on a roll, having won six straight.
That winning streak has led to a low line here, which I feel is providing value with the home team. A closer look at the Jazz's winning streak shows that they've been fortunate to play some weak and/or struggling teams though and that five of those six games came at home. The one road game was at Phoenix against a depleted Suns team. The Jazz are still just 8-15 away from Salt Lake City and I expect them to have their hands full this evening.
The Mavs got back on track last time out, winning at Memphis. (Arguably a more impressive feat than any of Utah's recent wins.) They've had two days off since then and they don't play again until after the All Star Break. They should be fresh and focused on the task at hand. The Jazz, on the other hand, play at New Orleans tomorrow.
While the Jazz are 8-15 on the road, the Mavs are 15-10 at home. Dallas outscores teams here. Utah gets outscored on the road. Note that the Mavs are 3-1 SU/ATS as home favorites of three or fewer points while the Jazz are just 1-4 ATS as road underdogs of three or less.
The Mavs, 7-1 ATS against teams from the Northwest Division, have dominated the Jazz here for years. Indeed, they're 22-2 as a host in this series, a perfect 10-0 the last 10. That streak will eventually come to an end. I just don't see it happening tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Celtics vs. Bucks
Play: Bucks +4
Edges - Bucks: 17-4 SU and 18-3 ATS home off BB losses the past two seasons, including 7-0 SUATS this season. Celtics: 1-5 ATS last six as favorites in Milwaukee. With Boston just 5-12 ATS as road favorites between home games when facing a foe off a loss, we recommend a 1* play on Milwaukee.
Will Rogers
Wichita State vs. Drake
Play: Drake +19
The Wichita State Shockers are coming off a rare loss on the road at Illinois State, but they are coming into tonight's game at Drake as an enormous favorite. The Bulldogs have lost 11 of their last 12, and one of those came at Wichita State. They lost that game by a whopping 20 points, but the Shockers are asked to win by just as great a margin here on the road. My money is on the home dog here, as I think this line looks a little inflated.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Shockers have won four of their last five visits to Drake, but none of those wins were one-sided enough to cover tonight's enormous number. If we look at both teams previous five games, the Bulldogs have actually shot for a higher percentage from beyond the arc, as well as from the free throw line.
2. Home Cookin' - Drake has averaged slightly more points at home than the Shockers have scored on the road. They haven't had as much success on defense, but they have only lost by more than 10 points once in their last five home games, winning one of those contests outright.
3. X-Factor - Ron Baker and Fred Van Fleet scored a total of 17 points on 5-of-21 shooting in the loss to Illinois State.
TJ Pemberton
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavs
Play: Dallas Mavs -2
The Dallas Mavericks have beat the Utah Jazz in 9 of the last 10 meetings straight up. The Mavs are currently 6th in the Western Conference and hold a home record of 15-10. The Mavericks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Northwest.The Utah Jazz have won 6 straight games and are winners are 7 of their last 10 games. Utah has been playing well as of late but they do struggle on the road and the Mavericks seems to have their number. The Jazz are just 8-15 on the road this season. The Jazz are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Free Pick: Take the Mavericks -2 and lay the small number at home. The favorite is 22-8-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings & the home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Jim Feist
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
Pick: Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics have been very hot, winning four straight and 12 of the last 15. They have also done well for bettors, covering four straight games and eight of the last 10. Boston's offense has been hitting on all cylinders, scoring 100 or more points in 15 of the last 16 games. Boston is also 8-5-1 O/U in their last 14 games. Milwaukee has struggled of late, losing five S/U in a row and going 2-6 ATS their last eight. The Celtics covered the one meeting this year (in Milwaukee) and have covered four of the last five against the Bucks. Celtics playing really well and this line isn't too big to lay on the road.
David Banks
Michigan State @ Purdue
Pick: Purdue +1
After losing three straight, head coach Tom Izzo and his Spartans got back to doing what they do best – playing defense, rebounding, and winning basketball games. They will look for their fifth straight win on Tuesday night when they take on 18th-ranked Purdue. The Spartans are coming off a huge win over in-state rival Michigan on Saturday.
Bryn Forbes put on a 3-point show hitting seven from behind the arc in the first half alone in MSU’s 89-73 rout of the Wolverines. Forbes ended the day with 29 points. The Spartans shot 14-of-22 from behind the 3-point line. Denzel Valentine added 21 points and had nine rebounds and eight assists. If Izzo’s team continues to shoot well – the Spartans have made 47 3-pointers in their last four wins – and play great defense, they could make a serious run for the Big Ten title.
MSU still has a game remaining with first-place Indiana and the Hoosiers will play Iowa (tied for first place) later this week. The Spartans (20-4, 7-4) can set themselves up for the NCAA tournament by winning out in conference play. It starts on Tuesday with Purdue.
The Boilermakers (19-5, 7-4) are now tied with the Spartans thanks to a Saturday loss to seventh-ranked Maryland. Purdue is solid all-around. They are 14th in the nation in points allowed (62.6 per game) and one of the better shooting teams in the country. Seven-foot senior A.J. Hammons, the team’s leading scorer, averages 14.3 points a game, shoots over 60 percent from the floor. The Boilermakers will have to shoot well as the Spartans are known for their defense and rebounding abilities.
Sleepyj
Spurs / Heat Under 193.5
I'll play this one under the total tonight...Both teams bring the defense and the fact that the Heat play at home makes this one even stronger for me...Miami has of it's last 8 games and the defense has been a big part of this recent run..5 of the 8 games the heat have held teams under 100 points..We know the Spurs play a bit slower and the Spurs defense is great...I think Miami plays good on the defensive end here tonight, but they struggle on offense...The second unit for Miami will hurt them here with points tonight..I don't like what I see from them right now...We should see some scoring droughts here when they get mixed into the starting lineups and when all the starters are off the court...This is the first meeting of the season and the first of a 8 game road trip for the Spurs..We will see the Spurs struggle to cover numbers here over this stretch as well I would imagine...When the big dogs come into your house the home team always steps up and plays defense..How long it lasts is another question..I think the Heat can and will play defense all game though..Heat are coming off a loss and the Spurs are coming off a win..Spurs play back to back road games here and then the All-Star break hits..Closing out the first half with two wins will be great for them..I think they can do it, but it will take defense to get both games won...I like the inside matchup in this game the most...Whiteside and Aldridge are going to be clogging up the paint the entire game..It's just tough to score on these teams in the paint...So it leaves the outside shooting a concern...Miami has a few guys who will step out, but for the most part if Bosh or Wade are not hitting shots from the outside, Miami is left passing the ball around horn looking for another option..This will take some time off the clock for us when they have the ball...I can see a bunch of low % shots in this one from both sides tonight...You would figure that Leonard is going to draw bosh or Wade in this one..That will hurt the Heat scoring here as well...This one has all the makings of being played in the 80's for each team..I got this one in the area of 89-82...Low scoring game that offers little offensive luster.
SCOTT SPREITZER
Wichita State vs. Drake
Play: Wichita St -18½
It's not often we'll lay this kind of lumber, but we expect a fire-up Shocker squad to enter Des Moines, following a loss at Illinois State, snapping their 12 game winning streak. WSU held ISU to 27% shooting along with a 6 of 20 night behind the arc. But the Shockers experienced a cold night on their own offensive end, unable to nail shots over the Redbirds' lengthy zone. Gregg Marshall's troops were also out-scored 22-9 at the FT line in the four-point loss. I expect Drake, on a 1-11 slide and a serious ATS money burner (1-10 ATS at home), to struggle against the Shocker defense, and without the type of defender ISU has, to be "just what the doctor ordered" for Wichita State to get right back on track on offense. The Shockers almost always lay steep prices in conference play, yet they're 8-1 ATS in their last nine and on a 38-14-1 ATS Mo-Valley run, overall.
BRIAN HAY
New Mexico vs. Utah State
Play: New Mexico -2½
New Mexico comes into this game with an overall record of 14-9 and a road record of 4-4. They are 11-8 against the spread. The Lobos average 78 points per game this season which ranks them 58th in the nation. Their average scoring margin is 5.6 and their shooting percentage is 48% as a team which has them ranked 30th. They hit 37% from three point land which is good for 75th in the country. Utah State has an overall record of 11-11 and a home record of 7-5. The Aggies are 7-12 against the spread. Utah State averages 71.3 points per game this year. Their average scoring margin is -1.6 and their shooting percentage is 44% as a team which has them sitting in the 144th spot in the country. Behind the arc they shoot 38% which is good for 50th in the nation. New Mexico is in a good spot coming off a loss to San Diego State. The Lobos have already beaten Utah State by 18 points this season. The Aggies are on a five game losing streak, going 1-4 against the spread in those contest, while New Mexico has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games.
TONY STOFFO
San Antonio at Miami
Play: Under 193
Coach Gregg Popovich is weighing whether to keep veteran Center Tim Duncan out until after the All-Star break. By not playing Duncan during the two games in Miami and Orlando essentially gives him another 10 days to heal. The Under is 13-3-1 in San Antonio's last 17 games following a ATS loss, 5-2 in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest, 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 12-5-1 in the Spurs last 18 vs. NBA Southeast.
Saturday's victory over Charlotte marked the fourth time in Center Hassan Whiteside's career that he has recorded a triple-double. He had 10 points, 10 rebounds and 10 blocked shots. The Under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 home games, 5-0 in their last 5 games following a straight up loss, 6-1 in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest and 7-2 in the Heat last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Head to Head the Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings and 15-6 in the last 21 meetings in Miami.
BRANDON SHIVELY
Virginia Tech vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia -15
This is not just your usual revenge game. This is an in-state rivalry and a series that Virginia has dominated in the past until last month when the Virginia Tech Hokies surprised Virginia beating them 70-68. Virginia had won the previous seven meetings prior to that game. Buzz WIlliams has done a great job with his Hokie team this season and Virginia is not as good as the preseason hype, but I think this spot fits them good tonight and they are starting to peak at just the right time.
When looking at this game initially, it might seem like a lot of points to be laying, but Virginia’s defense has been looking like the ‘defense of old’ lately as they haven’t allowed over 50 points in their last three games. The Cavaliers are only allowing 56 ppg at home this season while Virginia Tech is giving up 76 ppg on the road. I think this game comes down to defense and the Hokies have given up 77 or more points on the road in four of their last five conference games. I see this as one of those 76-55 type of final scores.
While the Hokies are 8-2 ATS their last ten games, they are starting to be a bit ‘overvalued’ now in my opinion and with tournament time right around the corner, I am expecting the Virginia Cavaliers to pick up the intensity. Look for them to cover this double digit spread Tuesday night.
JIMMY BOYD
Tennessee -10½
The Volunteers come into this game off an ugly 67-85 loss at Arkansas Saturday, their 3rd defeat in their last 4 games. The important thing to note is that all 4 losses came on the road, where the Volunteers are a miserable 1-10 this season. Tennessee is a dominant 10-2 at home with their two defeats at home coming to two of the top teams in the SEC in Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.
This may seem like a big number for the Volunteers to be laying, but I believe the books have set this line for good reason. We can expect a max effort here from Tennessee off that ugly loss to the Razorbacks and this being a big revenge game from a 77-83 defeat at Auburn to open up conference play.
The Tigers come into this game having lost 5 straight and are just 3-8 in the SEC overall. Things aren't looking good going forward, leading scorer Kareem Canty (18.3 ppg) is out indefinitely with a suspension. That's a big loss given T.J. Dunans (12.4 ppg) is also out with a knee injury. Cant played a big role in Auburn's win over the Volunteers earlier this season, scoring 20 points on 7 of 12 shooting, including 5 of 8 from long distance.
Auburn is also a team that really struggles away from home. The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in road games this season, where they are being outscored by nearly 15.0 ppg. It's also worth noting that the favorite is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 in the series and the Volunteers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against the Tigers.