BRANDON LEE
Mississippi State +1
The Razorbacks come into this game off a 85-67 blowout win at home against Tennessee and have now covered 4 straight, which started with that big 74-71 home win over Texas A&M. As good as Arkansas has been playing, they should not be favored on the road against any team outside of Missouri in the SEC. The Razorbacks are a miserable 1-9 on the road this season. Arkansas is just 18-33 ATS in their last 51 road games when listed as a favorite and 6-17 AS in their last 23 road games when they come in having covered 4 of their last 5. Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games.
RAY MONOHAN
Maple Leafs vs. Flames
Play: Flames -143
The Flames welcome in the lowly Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday night and getting them at home, at this price, offers some value on the Flames. Calgary is a much better team at home. They bring in a record of 15-11-0-0 and that includes a giant winning streak they carried earlier this season. The Flames score nearly 3 goals per home contest as their young offense really seems to gel together on their home ice.
They welcome in a Maple Leafs team that isn’t very good, as they are 11-15-0-2 away from home this season. This Toronto team struggles to find the back of the net, as they’re scoring just a hair over 2 goals per road game. They don’t seem many chances as the puck is usually in their zone.
Toronto’s scoring woes also lead them to be the 29th ranked team on the power play. This team just simply doesn’t take advantage of any situations thrown at them. Look for the Flames to control the tempo here and use their home ice to propel them to a win.
JESSE SCHULE
Jazz vs. Mavericks
Play: Over 184.5
The Utah Jazz come into Dallas riding a six game win streak, but five of those six wins came at home. The exception was a 98-89 win at Phoenix on Saturday. The Jazz are dominant on defense, ranking second in the NBA allowing just 95.9 points per game. They aren't nearly as successful on the road though, where they have an 8-15 record. Even Saturday's win over the Suns saw a total of 187 points, enough to go over the number here tonight. The bookmakers may have over adjusted here, as this line has dropped from 190 all the way down to 183. The Mavericks have won six straight home games against Utah, scoring 100+ points in five of those games. The Jazz are a woeful 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games, and they've allowed 99.7 points per game in their last seven on the road.
SPORTS WAGERS
Edmonton +106 over NEW JERSEY
OT included. Connor McDavid returns from injury and the Oilers go out and whack the Sens and Jackets by a combined score of 12-3. The Oilers were brought right back down to Earth very quickly with successive losses to Montreal and the Islanders by scores of 5-1 and 8-1 respectively. Which do we believe? Neither. Somewhere in the middle of those games are the true Oilers. They are capable of scoring goals and they’re capable of giving up a bunch too. We’ll roll the dice on them here because the Devils don’t score a lot and Edmonton figures to respond after that humiliating seven goal loss in Brooklyn. There is another reason to fade the Devils here too.
It’s ceremony night at The Rock. The Devils will honor Martin Brodeur by lifting his jersey to the rafters and retiring his number. That’s touching but all it does is gives us a great opportunity to cash a ticket. We absolutely love to fade the host on these occasions and this one figures to be longer than most. Brodeur was the face of this franchise for years. They won Stanley Cups because of his great goaltending. There figures to be an entire slew of speakers and awards handed to him. That means players standing around on the ice for 45 minutes to an hour before the game and waiting it out. It’s a huge hindrance that is difficult to overcome. To make matters worse, the Devils will play their third game in four days, their fifth game in eight days and tail end of back-to-backs after playing against the Rangers last night. The Oilers are going to have to be really bad to lose this one and we don’t envision that for a second.
Vancouver +115 over COLORADO
OT included. The Avalanche are 12-16 at home and 15-12 on the road. That’s a simple equation because they are rarely if ever favored on the road and frequently favored at home. In other words, this is a weak favorite and usually a live pup. Colorado is not a strong team. They can score goals in bunches but they rank dead last in the NHL in many defensive categories. No team in the NHL allows more shots than the Avs and it’s not getting any better. Colorado has been bombarded with 38 shots on net or more in five of their last six games. Colorado has lost four of five. When they recently won four games in a row over Buffalo, Winnipeg, St. Louis and Dallas, three of those victories were by 2-1 scores and the other was a 3-1 final against Dallas in which Colorado was outshot 43-15. Colorado winning games 2-1 is not the norm. They are a deflection a game away from being on a 10-game losing streak and in no way can they be trusted as the chalk.
The best news about the Canucks is that they have lost four in a row. The market sees wins and losses which in turn gives us a better takeback. The Canucks are the healthiest team in the NHL. Dan Hamhuis, Brandon Sutter and Henrik Sedin are all back from injury. We cannot overstate enough the importance of Hamhuis on the Canucks blueline. He’s plays big minutes and stabilizes everything the Canucks do defensively. Despite losing four in a row, Vancouver has outshot each of those last four opponents including holding Nashville to a mere 19 shots on net. Vancouver has scored just three goals in their last three games but has created many scoring opportunities. On Saturday against Calgary, Vancouver held a significant Corsi for advantage of 63-43. The Canucks are ready to pop. They’re playing so much better than their record indicates. They’ll use Jacob Markstrom in goal here and he’s been outstanding so far with a .923 save percentage in 19 games. Over his last three starts, Markstrom has posted save percentages of .933, .950 and .929. If the Canucks weren’t paying Ryan Miller so much, Markstrom would be without question the #1 goaltender. When Markstrom plays, the Canucks chances of winning increase, as his five regulation losses in 17 starts will attest to. Great value here on the Canucks and perhaps today’s best wager on the board.
Tampa Bay -½ +140 over MONTREAL
Regulation only. Tampa Bay lives to beat Montreal. Ever since the Habs knocked the Bolts out of the playoffs two seasons ago, Tampa has had it out for this enemy. These two played a tough, six-game series last season that the Lightning won. They have played once this season and Montreal won in a shootout 4-3. The Bolts played last night in Ottawa and got whacked, 5-1. However, prior to that, Tampa had won 11 of 12 so last night’s loss might be attributed to the Bolts looking ahead to this one.
Montreal has snapped out of it for the time being with consecutive home wins for the first time since early November. The Habs had an easy win over Edmonton and followed it up with a shootout win over Carolina in a game they did not deserve to win. Carolina had several glorious scoring opportunities but Ben Scrivens was lights out. Michel Therrien will go with the hot hand again here, as Scrivens will make his third straight start. Scrivens is very unlikely to get lucky again against the snipers he’ll face here. There’s a reason he’s been let go by every team he’s played on. There’s a reason he was the fourth stringer for Edmonton for a time. Scrivens flops around like a fish out of water. He’s quick with his glove but he’s out of position often. He kicks up his legs and waves his arms while lying on the ground to make saves. Scrivens will be relegated back to the minors when Carey Price gets back and he’ll be backing up Mike Condon again very soon. He is among the weakest and one could argue he is the weakest. Based on goaltenders alone, the Bolts are worthy of a bet. Add in that good teams almost always respond after getting creamed and Tampa’s pure hate for this host and it all adds up to a ticket that has a great chance of cashing.
Toronto +130 over CALGARY
OT included. Jonas Hiller was in net for three straight games from December 10-12 against Buffalo, the Rangers and Florida and by some minor miracle, Calgary swept those three games. That’s what Coach Bob Hartley does. He sticks with the hot hand in net and Calgary is coming off a 4-1 victory in Vancouver on Saturday night. The Flames will turn to Hiller again and while anything can happen in one game, Hiller is perhaps the biggest goaltending risk in the NHL. Hiller’s save percentage this year is .890. In nine of his 15 games, Hiller has posted a save percentage of .880 or less. In four of his 15 starts, his save percentage was .833 or less and he also has a few games in the .850 neighborhood. Goaltending decides the outcome of more games than any other factor, which suggests that Toronto’s chances of winning are greater than Calgary’s. When Hiller is in net and the Flames are favored, they are to be instantly faded.
Toronto is coming off a blowout loss to the Senators on Saturday. That was a rare poor effort by the Maple Leafs. You can count on one hand the number of times this year that the Maple Leafs showed up in body only. What we can count on here is a Leafs response in this, their first game of a Western Canada trip. The number on the Leafs is inflated here because Toronto is missing some pieces. Tyler Bozak, Joffrey Lupul and Shawn Matthias join JVR on the rack and that leaves some holes in the Leafs lineup. To replace that trio, Toronto has called up Josh Leivo, Mark Arcobello and the grittier Rich Clune. Leivo is fresh off the AHL All-Star game and three consecutive multi-point games with the Marlies. He has 38 points in 38 games while Arcobella has 20 goals and 24 assists in 34 games and is fourth in AHL scoring despite having played more than a dozen fewer games than the top two scorers. Any player is capable of scoring on Hiller. Hiller is always in jeopardy of getting yanked. Give the Maple Leafs a huge advantage in goal and give us any price being offered.
Late update: The 9-player trade that the Leafs made today does nothing to deter us from playing them here. It actually makes the Leafs even more appealing, as players have to work harder now to maintain their spot on the club. We actually cannot believe Ottawa made that trade but that’s a story for another time.
Washington +101 over NASHVILLE
OT included. The Capitals need no introductions. They are running away in the East and they are very likely going to be the top seed in the playoffs. They always have a chance to win and we have to trust they’ll be a little added incentive for the players to get Barry Trotz a victory at the place he called home for years.
Our position on the Predators has not changed. We maintain that this is one best collections of talent in the league. Nashville’s 25-27 record has nothing to do with their lack of effort or talent and everything to do with their goaltending not being capable of winning games on their own. You take a collection of sharp shooters like the Caps possess and put them up against a weak goaltender and we’re thrilled to take our chances. Fading Pekka Rinne here completes our trifecta of fading the three worst goaltenders in the game in Scrivens, Hiller and Rinne and we love our chances to sweep.
Power Sports
Xavier vs. Creighton
Pick: Creighton
Creighton is a fairly "tough out" at home. The Blue Jays showed that with a 22-point win over admittedly awful Depaul on Saturday. So they're 10-4 SU here w/ an average margin of victory of 13 points per game. Facing #5 Xavier will be a challenge, but the Musketeers have struggled a bit of late. Take the points.
Xavier's two losses are tied for the fewest in the entire country (w/ Ark Little Rock & SMU). Saturday's 90-82 win over Marquette saw them trail by as many as seven in the second half. But the Musketeers ended up shooting 65 percent from three-point range, making 13, and pulled off the comeback. The game before that they failed to cover against terrible St. John's. Note that giving up as many points as they did vs. Marquette does not bode well for the Musketeers here as they are just 3-11 against the spread after giving up 80+ points the previous game.
Creighton played Xavier tough in both meetings last year, beating them in Cincy and then losing by only one here at home. Two of the Blue Jays' last four losses have come by two points or less, so the record could look a bit better. The fact that Xavier has given up 80+ pts in B2B games is not a good sign w/ Creighton coming off an 88-point effort of their own and averaging 83.8 PPG here at home.
Oskeim Sports
Toledo at Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo
Buffalo continues to fly under-the-radar despite winning six of its last seven games, including road upsets over Western Michigan (91-71), Toledo (73-68) and Northern Illinois (90-78). Since the beginning go the 2013-14 season, the Bulls have been nearly perfect at home, winning 32 of their last 37 games in Alumni Arena. Since the start of the 2010-11 campaign, Buffalo is 68-17 inside Alumni Arena and 133-47 at home since the commencement of the 2003-04 regular season. Buffalo has won six of the last eight meetings in this series, and I look for the Bulls to complete the series sweep tonight before the home faithful. The Bulls are 8-2 SU at home this season where they are averaging 82.5 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field, which is good enough to exploit a pedestrian Toledo defense that is 1.6 points per game better than average (71.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 72.9 points per game). The concern for Toledo has been its weak perimeter defense. Indeed, teams are making 38.3% of their three-point field goal attempts against the Rockets, including 39.7% in conference play, 41.2% on the road and 44.4% over the last five games. I also like the fact that Buffalo's bench has contributed 667 of the team's 1,760 points this season (37.8%), which is a dramatic improvement over last year's reserves who scored 479 points all season. Buffalo also ranks 51st nationally in total rebounds per game (39.4), whereas the Rockets rank 152nd (36.8). From a technical standpoint, Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in its last four games versus .501 or greater opposition,4-0 ATS in its last four conference affairs, 4-1 ATS in its last five home games and 4-1-1 ATS versus .601 or greater foes. With the Rockets standing at a money-burning 1-5 ATS in their last six clashes with Buffalo, take the Bulls and invest with confidence.
Ian Cameron
Edmonton at New Jersey
Play: Edmonton +105
We cashed a winner on the Edmonton Oilers last week as a free play and tonight looks like another solid opportunity. The Oilers are in serious bounce-back mode following an ugly weekend in which they suffered back-to-back blowout losses by a combined score of 13-2 against Montreal and the NY Islanders. Edmonton got the services of Connor McDavid back following the All-Star break and his impact was immediately felt as the team notched 5-1 and 7-2 victories against the Columbus Blue Jackets and Ottawa Senators, respectively. But the roof caved in this weekend as their defensive game was non-existent in 5-1 and 8-1 defeats. Head coach Todd McLellan was not pleased after the two games during the weekend quoted as saying: “We got our butts handed to us in Montreal and we came in here and responded in a very inappropriate way, and that’s very disappointing.” I think we will see a much better effort from tonight following such a brutal two-game set. New Jersey is probably a good opponent for the Oilers’ defense to get back on track against as the Devils are struggling to score goals once again. They’ve been held to two goals or less in four of their last five games with a 1-4 record during that span. New Jersey will be retiring the number of their future Hall Of Fame bound goaltender and one of the best goalies to ever to play the position, Martin Brodeur. Events like this have a tendency to be a distraction for the home team and when you combine that with Edmonton likely sitting on a good effort I’ll side with the short road underdog.
Wunderdog
Edmonton @ New Jersey
Pick: Edmonton +109
Young Edmonton has star rookie Connor McDavid back and is 2-2 the last four games, winning as a dog at Ottawa, 7-2. The 19-year-old center has 18 points in 17 games. While Edmonton has speed and talent on its young offense, New Jersey has virtually no offense, #29 in the NHL in goals scored. New Jersey is in the hunt for a Wild Card spot but is not playing like it, losing three in a row scoring two goals twice and one goal after Monday's 2-1 loss to the New York Rangers. It's the second of a back-to-back spot and the Devils are 3-7 in the third game of a three-in-four situation. Edmonton has at least one point in its last 10 games at New Jersey, going 5-0-4 with one tie. They won 2-1 in their most recent visit on this ice and can do it again. Take Edmonton.