SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Illinois (16-8, 9-14 ATS) at (11) Wisconsin (18-5, 13-8 ATS)
Illinois takes a four-game winning streak to the Kohl Center in Madison, Wis., for a crucial Big Ten battle with the Badgers.
The Illini scored a hard-fought 78-73 victory over fifth-ranked Michigan State as a 1½-point home underdog Saturday, and they’ve followed up a three-game losing skid with four straight wins (3-1 ATS). Illinois hasn’t had a five-game winning streak all year, and while the Illini have covered the spread in consecutive contests, they haven’t posted three straight ATS wins this season. Illinois is 4-3 SU and ATS in true road games this season, including 3-2 SU and ATS in conference play.
Wisconsin dealt Michigan State its first conference loss of the season on Tuesday, rolling 67-49 as a two-point home favorite, then went to Michigan on Saturday showed no signs of a letdown, rolling 62-44 as a one-point road underdog – the team’s third straight spread-cover. The Badgers have won consecutive games four times since the Big Ten season started, but have yet to win three in a row.
Wisconsin is 13-0 at home this year (4-6 ATS), outscoring opponents by nearly 19 points per game (71.7-52.8) at the Kohl Center. Going back to last season’s 63-50 rout of Illinois, the Badgers have won 18 in a row in Madison (7-8 ATS).
Illinois and Wisconsin are 8-3 in the Big Ten which puts them in a three-way tie with Ohio State for second place in the league standings, one game behind Michigan State and a half-game ahead of Purdue.
Including their 13-point at home victory last year, the Badgers have taken six of the last seven series battles with Illinois (5-1-1 ATS). The host is 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS in the last six meetings, the favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four and the SU winner is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine.
Illinois is in ATS slumps of 2-8 after a spread-cover and 2-6 against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin has cashed in eight of its last 11 at home and five of seven after a spread-cover, but the Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last six on Tuesday.
The Illini are on “over” surges of 20-7 overall, 8-3 on the road, 5-1 in Big Ten action, 10-4 after a SU win and 9-1 after a spread-cover. Conversely, Wisconsin is on “under” runs of 21-8 overall, 6-2 at home, 40-18 in conference play, 40-17-1 following a victory and 41-13 after a spread-cover. Also, these teams have stayed under the total in seven of their last 10 clashes overall and four of their last five battles at the Kohl Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WISCONSIN and UNDER
(12) Tennessee (18-4, 9-9-1 ATS) at (22) Vanderbilt (17-5, 11-9 ATS)
Fresh off their most impressive victory in nearly a month, the Volunteers head to Memorial Gym in Nashville looking for a little payback against Vanderbilt in an SEC clash.
Tennessee crushed South Carolina 79-53 as a 9½-point home favorite on Saturday, its first double-digit win since a 26-point rout of Auburn on Jan. 14. The Volunteers have followed up consecutive losses to Georgia (road) and Vanderbilt (home) with three straight wins, and they snapped a four-game ATS slide with Saturday’s easy spread-cover. Bruce Pearl’s squad is 6-3 on the highway this season (4-4-1 ATS), including 2-1 (1-2 ATS) in SEC roadies.
Since upsetting Tennessee 85-76 as a 6½-point road underdog on Jan. 27 – which capped a 10-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) – the Commodores have dropped two of their last three (0-3 ATS). That includes Saturday’s ugly 72-58 loss at Georgia as a four-point road favorite. On the bright side, Vanderbilt is 11-0 at Memorial Gym (5-4 ATS in lined games), including 3-0 in SEC games (1-2 ATS), outscoring visitors by nearly 19 ppg (84.3-65.5). Going back to last season, the Commodores have won 16 in a row at home (9-5 ATS).
Vandy’s win in Knoxville last month was the second time in the last three meetings that the road team prevailed in this rivalry, including Tennessee’s 76-63 rout in Nashville last year as a two-point road chalk. Prior to that contest, the Vols had lost four straight games at Memorial Gym. Tennessee is 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall, 7-2 ATS in its last nine at Vanderbilt and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last nine matchups.
Both teams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall (all within the SEC), and Tennessee is also 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 after a SU defeat. On the other hand, the Vols have cashed in eight of their last 11 on Tuesday and seven of their last 10 against winning teams.
These teams easily topped the total when they squared off last month at Tennessee, ending a 5-0 “under” run in this series. The under is still 5-1 in the last six clashes at Vandy, and the under is on additional runs of 5-1 for the Commodores against winning teams, 20-7 for the Vols overall, 22-8 for the Vols on the road, 7-2 for the Vols against SEC opponents, 6-1 for the Vols on Tuesday, 5-1 for the Vols against winning teams and 18-5 for the Vols after a SU victory.
That said, the over is 5-1 in Vandy’s last six overall (all against SEC competition).
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and UNDER
(6) Purdue (19-3, 9-12-1 ATS) at (10) Michigan State (19-5, 8-15 ATS)
Two Big Ten rivals going in opposite directions hook up at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Mich., where the host Spartans try to halt their first two-game slide of the season and snap Purdue’s five-game winning streak.
The Boilermakers barely survived at lowly Indiana on Thursday, winning 78-75 and falling way short as a 12½-point road favorite. Purdue has won five in a row, but four of those victories have been by six points or less, and it is 2-3 ATS during the winning streak. And while the Boilermakers have won their last two conference road games after losing the first two, they’re just 1-3 ATS when visiting Big Ten rivals. For the season, they’re 8-2 SU but 3-6-1 ATS in road/neutral-site games.
Michigan State won its first nine Big Ten games for the first time in school history, but then went on the road to Wisconsin and Illinois last week and stumbled in losing 67-49 to the Badgers (as a two-point underdog) and 78-73 to the Illini (as a 1½-point favorite). The Spartans have now failed to cover in four straight games and six of their last seven, all in conference. They still lead the Big Ten with a 9-2 record, a game ahead of Wisconsin, Illinois and Ohio State.
Michigan State has won 18 straight games at the Breslin Center, including 10 in a row in Big Ten action (6-4 ATS). This year, the Spartans are 13-0 at home but just 6-6 ATS despite outscoring visitors by 16 ppg (77-61).
The home team has taken six straight meetings in this rivalry (4-2 ATS), and that includes two contests last year, with Purdue winning 72-54 as a 2½-point chalk and the Spartans rolling 62-51 as a 5½-point favorite. With that latter result, Michigan State ended an 0-5 ATS slide against the Boilermakers. The chalk has cashed in three straight meetings and six of the last eight.
Purdue is in ATS funks of 2-6 overall (all vs. Big Ten foes), 1-4 on the road, 1-5 against opponents with a winning record and 1-4 after a SU win, while the Spartans’ ATS slumps include 1-6 overall, 2-5 at home and 5-19-2 on Tuesday. However, Michigan State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when coming off a loss.
These defensive-minded rivals have stayed below the posted total in 13 of their last 16 head-to-head battles (3-0 “under” last three), including six of the last seven in East Lansing. Furthermore, Michigan State is on “under” runs of 7-3 overall, 16-6 in Big Ten play, 19-7 on Tuesday and 5-1 versus winning teams, and Purdue has stayed low in 13 of its last 19 against winning squads. However, the over has hit in all four of the Boilermakers’ conference road games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
Atlanta (32-17, 31-18 ATS) at Memphis (26-24, 27-22-1 ATS)
The slumping Grizzlies look to get back on track when they welcome the Hawks to the FedEx Forum.
Atlanta hits the road after a pair of home wins last week over the Clippers (103-97 as a 9½-point favorite on Wednesday) and Bulls (91-81 as an eight-point chalk on Friday). Despite those two victories, the Hawks have split their last six contests (2-4 ATS), going 0-3 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch. One of the top-scoring teams in the NBA, Atlanta has been held to 103 points or fewer in eight straight games.
Memphis has followed up a 14-4 run by losing five of its last six SU and ATS, including the last three in a row. Ironically, the lone victory came against the defending champion Lakers last Monday (95-93 as a one-point underdog). Since then, the Grizzlies have fallen to the Cavaliers on the road (105-89), the Rockets at home (101-83) and the TWolves on the road (109-102). Like the Hawks, Memphis is struggling offensively, scoring 100 points or less in six of its last eight games (tallying exactly 102 points in the other two contests).
While the Hawks have one of the best home records in the league at 21-5, they’re a sub-.500 road team (12-13 SU, 13-10 ATS). On the flip side, Memphis is 18-7 in its building (15-9-1 ATS), including 17-5 in the last 22 (14-7-1 ATS).
Atlanta is looking to sweep this season series, having taken down the Grizzlies 110-97 as a 9½-point home favorite back on Dec. 16. The Hawks are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings, with the one loss coming in last year’s trip to Memphis (98-90 Grizzlies victory as a 7½-point favorite). The chalk has won and covered in each of the last five meetings, and the SU winner is 8-0 ATS in the last eight.
The Hawks are 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight against the Western Conference, but they’ve covered in four of five following a layoff of three or more days. Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall, 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight after a SU defeat and 7-20-1 ATS in its last 28 on Tuesday, but from there the Grizzlies are on positive pointspread streaks of 20-9-1 at home, 21-7-1 against Eastern Conference opponents and 6-1-1 versus teams from the Southeast Division.
Atlanta is on “under” rolls of 9-1-1 after a SU win, 6-1-1 after a spread-cover, 5-1 on Tuesday and 3-1-1 against the Southwest Division. The Grizzlies have also stayed low in four of their last five at home, 18 of their last 26 following two days of rest and four in a row against the Eastern Conference. However, the over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MEMPHIS and UNDER
Dallas (32-19, 21-30 ATS) at Denver (34-17, 23-25-3 ATS)
The ailing Nuggets kick off a brief two-game homestand when they welcome the struggling Mavericks to the Pepsi Center for a Western Conference clash.
Dallas was in Golden State last night, where it rallied for a 127-117 victory as a four-point road underdog, outscoring the Warriors 37-19 in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks are still just 2-4 SU in their last six overall, and they snapped a six-game ATS losing skid Monday but are still 2-8 ATS in their last 10 (2-4 ATS on the road). Dallas’ offense is in fine form, tallying 106 points or more in seven of the last nine games, but the Mavs’ last six opponents have gone over the century mark, putting up 110.1 ppg.
Denver took the court at Utah on Saturday without All-Stars Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups (both dealing with injured ankles), and the result was predictable: a 116-106 loss, pushing as a 10-point road underdog. Since peeling off eight straight wins from Jan. 11-Jan. 27, the Nuggets have split their last six games (2-3-2 ATS). George Karl’s club is 10-17-3 ATS in its last 30 games, but on the bright side it hasn’t suffered consecutive SU defeats since Dec. 27-28, a stretch of 19 contests.
The Mavericks have a solid road mark at 17-10 (16-11 ATS), but despite Monday’s win in Golden State, it has lost three of its last five on the highway. Denver is 22-4 at the Pepsi Center, but only 13-12-1 ATS.
The Nuggets needed just five games to sweep Dallas out of the playoffs last spring, but the Mavericks are one of just four teams to score a victory in Denver this season, winning 104-96 on Dec. 27. Dallas covered as a 5½-point road underdog, ending a six-game ATS slump in this rivalry. Still, the Nuggets are 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 series meetings, and going back further they’ve cashed in 12 of the last 14 clashes overall and six of eight in Denver. Also, the SU winner has gotten the money in nine of the last 11 battles.
Dallas, which has the third-worst pointspread mark in the league, is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 games overall and is in further ATS funks of 2-4 on the highway, 0-5 both on Tuesday, against the Northwest Division and 2-5 when playing on consecutive nights. The Nuggets are on pointspread tears of 16-5 against the Southwest Division and 3-0-1 against winning teams, but they’re 5-12-3 ATS in their past 20 games against Western Conference foes.
The under is 5-1 in Denver’s last six against the Southwest Division. From there, though, the over is on upticks of 6-2 for Dallas overall, 4-1 for Dallas against teams from the Southwest Division, 5-2 for the Nuggets at home, 4-1 for the Nuggets on Tuesday and 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams dating to last year’s playoff series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
Oklahoma City (29-21, 31-19 ATS) at Portland (30-23, 28-24-1 ATS)
The red-hot Thunder go for a season-best sixth consecutive win when it concludes a three-game road trip with a stop at the Rose Garden to battle the Blazers.
Oklahoma City disposed of Golden State 104-95 as a 3½-point road chalk on Saturday, the team’s third straight spread-cover, all as a small favorite (3½ points or less). Kevin Durant continued his stellar play with 29 points, four assists and eight rebounds, and he’s now scored more than 25 points in 24 straight games.
Portland caught a break on Saturday when the Lakers came to town and Kobe Bryant sat out with an injured ankle, but the Blazers failed to take advantage, losing 99-82 as a 3 ½-point home underdog. All-Star point guard Brandon Roy (hamstring) missed his 10th straight game and has played just once (18 minutes) in the team’s last 13 contests. Without Roy, who will be sidelined at least through the All-Star break, Portland is 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games, including 2-3 SU and ATS at home. The SU winner is 23-4-1 ATS in games played at the Rose Garden year, including 11-0 ATS in the last 11.
These teams met way back in the first week of the season, with the Blazers wining 83-74 in Oklahoma City as a three-point road underdog on Nov. 1. Portland is on a 4-0 SU and ATS roll in this series after going 0-4 ATS in the previous four. Also, the home team is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings, with the Blazers favored in all 10. Oklahoma City has failed to cover in four of its last five visits to Portland.
The Thunder are riding a slew of positive pointspread streaks, including 4-1 overall, 19-7 on the road, 34-16-1 on Tuesday, 7-1 after a two days of rest and 8-0 against winning teams. Portland has cashed in nine of its last 13 division contests, seven of its last nine after a defeat and five of its last six following a non-cover.
The under has been the play in eight of the last nine Thunder-Blazers battles, and the under is 6-2 in Portland’s last eight Tuesday outings, 3-0-1 in its last four against winning teams, 7-1-1 in Oklahoma City’s last nine against winning teams and 4-0 in its last four against division rivals. On the flip side, the over is 8-0-1 in the Thunder’s last nine Tuesday games, while the Blazers carry “over” trends of 7-3 overall, 9-2 after a SU loss, 8-2 versus the Western Conference and 4-0 against the Northwest Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY
Marc Lawrence
Oklahoma vs Texas Tech
Play On: Oklahoma
This Tuesday night Big 12 matchup finds the Red Raiders in the middle of a classic revenge sandwich: off a same-season revenge win against Oklahoma State with a same-season revenger versus Texas A&M on deck. In the middle of this meaty triple-decker is a Sooners squad looking to poke some holes in Tech's swiss cheese defense (allowing over 74 PPG) and avenge an earlier 10-point road loss. Jeff Capel's bunch is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS the last four games in this series when looking to repay a debt. With the Red Raiders 9-24-2 ATS versus an avenging opponent, we'll look for yet another 'homer' in Big 12 land here tonight.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
CAL (+125) vs OTT
For a number of different reasons I believe the Flames are offering up decent value in this situation:
The Flames won 6-3 at Scotiabank Place on March 3rd last year, as Miikka Kiprusoff improved to 5-0-0 in his career against the Senators.
Calgary has gone 3-1-1 since a nine-game losing streak and has a chance to finish a three-game road trip with five of a possible six points as it tries to maintain its grip on a playoff spot.
The Flames let an extra point slip away Saturday night in Tampa, losing 2-1 in overtime - their fourth defeat in 27 games after entering the third period with the lead; I look for them to play with a concerted effort in the Nations capital tonight though.
On the other side of the rink: The Senators' string of 11 straight victories ended Saturday night in a 5-0 road loss to Toronto, which scored three goals in the first period after Ottawa had held each opponent during the streak to two or fewer goals for the entire game.
I believe the Sens will suffer a letdown tonight against a team they haven't been able to beat in nearly six years.
The Maple Leafs chased red-hot goalie Brian Elliott, who was 9-0-0 with a 1.22 goals-against average in his previous nine starts and he'll have his hands full tonight with some of his teammates on the IL.
Bottom line: The injury bug is striking the Senators again with defenseman Erik Karlsson and left wing Nick Foligno out.
This is a good spot, offering good value; play on the CALGARY FLAMES.
John Ryan
Illinois vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -9
3* graded play on Wisconsin as they take on Illinois in Big-10 action set to start at 7:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Wisconsin will win this game by 10 or more points. This is a significant game given that Wisconsin and Illinois are tied for 2nd in conference play sporting 8-3 marks. Among the top-5 teams in conference play, Illinois has the most losses with 8 and reflects the fact that Illinois has yet to play the elite conference teams. After Wisconsin tonight they have to face Ohio State and then Purdue. They close out the season at Ohio State and then Wisconsin again. Safe to say, in our opinion, that Illinois will end up a possible bubble team at best. Wisconsin is an excellent ball handling team and Illinois has not faired well against similar teams. They are -9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus good ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 104-58 ATS since 1997. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points and is a slow-down team averaging 53 or less shots/game on the season and after 2 straight games making 50% of their shots or better. Take Wisconsin.
Rob Vinciletti
Houston U vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Western Kentucky -2
I find it some what unusual a non conference game in the middle of the week this time of year in the middle of conference play. However this looks to be a good spot for the Home team here as WKU is is 10-3 at home this year,16-5 after scoring 80 or more,8-4 vs Conference USA,and 9-2 at home when the total is 140 to 149.5, the past few years. Houston has lost 4 of the last 6 times after scoring 60 or less and 5 of 6 as a dog this year. Take the home team tonight.
Black Widow
1* on Ohio -4.5
Ohio gets the call Tuesday as they host Western Michigan. This is a very generous line by the books here, and we'll take advantage. WMU is 4-7 on the road this season while Ohio is 8-4 at home. Ohio is outscoring their opponents by 11.0 points/game through 12 home contests this season. The Bobcats are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 home meetings with Western Michigan. Western Michigan is 1-15 ATS (-15.5 Units) after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Ohio is 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Ohio is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats will be looking forward to returning home tonight where they have been dominant all season. Take Ohio and lay the points.
Info Plays
3* on Bulls/Pacers OVER 202
Reasons why this game goes OVER:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Over - Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHICAGO) - after a game where they covered the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. This is a 99-49 OVER System hitting 66.9% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 10-6 this season. Bet the OVER.
Jack Jones
Play Creighton -7.5
Lay the points on Creighton Tuesday as they host the Indiana State Sycamores. Indiana State comes in with the better overall record, but Creighton has been dominant on their home court this season.
The Bluejays are 10-1 at home on the year and are sporting a 5-3 record their against the spread. Creighton is scoring just under 73 points per game offensively at home, while they've enjoyed a solid boost in their defense as the host, holding opposing teams to just 63.1 points per game.
Indiana State is 14-10 overall this season, but just 6-7 in their 13 road games. The Sycamores have been mediocre offensively on the road posting 64.7 ppg on average, which isn't good news for a team that gives up 68.1 ppg in their average road game. Indiana State won an earlier match up between these two at home this season, but at home the Bluejays are good enough to win this match up by double-digits.
John Martin
1 Unit on L.A. Clippers +4.5
L.A. has played their best basketball at home this season. The Clippers are 14-10 at home this year while the Jazz are just 9-12 on the road, struggling yet again this season when they leave Salt Lake City. In fact, the Clippers have won 8 of their last 10 home games, losing only to Cleveland and San Antonio. After winning 8 straight games, and 12 of their last 13 overall, the Jazz are getting overvalued. This gives us a great spot to back the Clippers because the odds makers are clearly setting this line based on Utah's recent success, knowing that the betting public will be all over them. Utah is 5-17 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Clippers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, and the home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Cash in with the Clippers as the underdog.
Jim Feist
Sacramento Kings vs. New York Knicks
Play: Over 212½
There will be a lot of things on display this game, but defense won't be one of them. Sacramento is a long way from home, playing its 10th road game over the last 14 games. They don't play any defense to begin with, allowing 105.8 ppg, fourth worst in the NBA. They appear to have tired legs of late with all that road travel, on a 4-1 run over the total. NY allows the 7th most points in the league (103.4 ppg). Sacramento is particulary inept, allowing .472% shooting by opponents, 6th worst in the league. Look for the Knicks to run right at the road weary visitors and for more offense than defense, play the Kings/Knicks Over the total.
James Patrick Sports
Timberwolves vs. 76'ers
Philadelphia has struggled at home in the Wachovia Center with a (6-18) ATS record while the T-Wolves of HC Kurt Rambis are playing their best basketball of the season of late. This series has seen the road team cash winning tickets at a (7-3-1) ATS mark the past (11) contests and the underdog has brought home the money at a (14-3-1) ATS rate. Big Game James Patrick's selection is Minnesota Timberwolves on this Fan Appreciation Day.
DUNKEL
Chicago at Indiana
The Pacers look to bounce back from their loss in Milwaukee and build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games following a SU loss. Indiana is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Pacers favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-1 1/2)
Game 501-502: New Jersey at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 105.761; Cleveland 128.874
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 23; 190
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 503-504: Washington at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 108.170; Charlotte 124.718
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 16 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 505-506: Minnesota at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 116.734; Philadelphia 120.286
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 6 1/2; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6 1/2); Over
Game 507-508: Chicago at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 116.051; Indiana 120.045
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-1 1/2); Under
Game 509-510: Houston at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 116.808; Miami 123.872
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 7; 193
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 511-512: Sacramento at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 112.643; New York 112.898
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 217
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 5; 212 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+5); Over
Game 513-514: Atlanta at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 119.936; Memphis 119.348
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 198
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 515-516: Detroit at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 107.545; Milwaukee 114.946
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 7 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 8; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+8); Under
Game 517-518: Dallas at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 116.785; Denver 123.413
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 6 1/2; 213
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 519-520: Oklahoma City at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 121.999; Portland 120.454
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-1); Over
Game 521-522: Utah at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 124.477; LA Clippers 116.708
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 8; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 4 1/2; 201
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-4 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Tennessee at Vanderbilt
The Volunteers look to build on their 4-0-1 ATS record in their last 5 games as an underdog. Tennessee is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Commodores favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3 1/2)
Game 523-524: Illinois at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 64.957; Wisconsin 79.451
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 9
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-9)
Game 525-526: Boston College at Wake Forest
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 62.505; Wake Forest 74.345
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 12
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (-6 1/2)
Game 527-528: Georgetown at Providence
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 70.346; Providence 66.601
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Providence (+4 1/2)
Game 529-530: VCU at George Mason
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 66.520; George Mason 58.889
Dunkel Line: VCU by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: VCU by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: VCU (-3 1/2)
Game 531-532: Tennessee at Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 68.823; Vanderbilt 70.726
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 2
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3 1/2)
Game 533-534: Akron at Central Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 55.586; Central Michigan 57.894
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Akron by 3
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+3)
Game 535-536: Western Michigan at Ohio
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 54.261; Ohio 60.892
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-4 1/2)
Game 537-538: St. Louis at St. Joseph's
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 54.928; St. Joseph's 56.758
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 2
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 1
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (-1)
Game 539-540: Houston at Western Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 61.492; Western Kentucky 55.858
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2 1/2)
Game 541-542: Indiana State at Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 57.246; Creighton 59.909
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 8
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (+8)
Game 543-544: Wichita State at Evansville
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 61.951; Evansville 52.973
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 9
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (+10 1/2)
Game 545-546: Illinois State at Bradley
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 60.761; Bradley 59.887
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 1
Vegas Line: Bradley by 1
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (+1)
Game 547-548: Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 62.145; Oklahoma 66.924
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 5
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+5 1/2)
Game 549-550: Alabama at Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 63.152; Kentucky 78.598
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-14 1/2)
Game 551-552: Purdue at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 71.739; Michigan State 72.584
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 1
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+3)
Game 553-554: Colorado State at Air Force
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 53.917; Air Force 55.567
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+2 1/2)
Game 555-556: Tennessee Tech at Austin Peay
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 49.590; Austin Peay 54.785
Dunkel Line: Austin Peay by 5
Vegas Line: Austin Peay by 9
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Tech (+9)
Game 557-558: SE Missouri State at Tennessee Martin
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 41.922; Tennessee Martin 42.383
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Tennessee Martin by 4
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (+4)
NHL
Boston at Buffalo
The Sabres look to take advantage of a Boston team that is 0-7 in its last 7 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Buffalo is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Sabres favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-145)
Game 51-52: Florida at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.486; Carolina 11.279
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+105); Under
Game 53-54: Nashville at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.253; NY Islanders 10.989
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-125); Under
Game 55-56: Boston at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.368; Buffalo 12.193
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-145); Under
Game 57-58: Vancouver at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.885; Tampa Bay 11.757
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-135); Over
Game 59-60: Calgary at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.109; Ottawa 13.110
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-140); Over
Game 61-62: Detroit at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.633; St. Louis 11.746
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+110); Under
Game 63-64: Dallas at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.884; Chicago 13.346
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-240); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-240); Over
LT Profits
Colorado State @ Air Force
If you are looking for exciting offense, do not expect to find any when the Colorado State Rams visit the Air Force Falcons in a game that may even put insomniacs to sleep, especially those that live on the East Coast given this late start time.
Air Force is not a particularly good shooting team, so in an attempt to hide that fact, they play at an extremely deliberate pace, with the thinking being that their best chance to win any game is to limit the amount of possessions for each team. Thus, their 9-13 record is really better than should be expected considering they average a paltry 59.7 points per game overall, and they actually have a winning 8-5 record at home.
More important though is the fact that the Under is 4-1-1 in their home games that have had posted totals. To give you an idea of just how slow Air Force plays, they average 59.7 possessions per game according to Pomeroy, which ranks 345 out of 347 Division I schools and is more than eight possessions per game less than the national average of 67.8. The only two teams that play at a slower pace than Air Force are Delaware State and Samford.
Now Colorado State is averaging 67.5 points per game overall, but their offense tapers off considerably on the road, where the Rams average just 61.1 points on a poor 39.0 percent shooting. Furthermore, most of that obviously came vs. normal paced teams, so you can probably deduct a couple of points from that road average here given the way Air Force plays.
This may seem like a rather low posted total at fist glance, but we do not see either team getting out of the 50s tonight, making Under the play.
Pick: Colorado State/Air Force Under 119.5
Insider Angels
We are not in the habit of giving this many points, but the Wisconsin Badgers just may have the strongest home court advantage in all of college basketball, and we are looking for a double-digit win vs. the Illinois Fighting Illini here.
The Badgers simply do not lose at Kohl Center, where they are 13-0 this season while beating their Division I home foes by a whopping average of +18.9 points per game. Furthermore, thus is actually a very good Badger team that can win anywhere this year, which makes them even doubly tough at home. Wisconsin is 18-5 overall while winning all of their games by an average of +11.6 points, including an 18-point thumping of Michigan State in their last home game.
The key to the Badgers' success has been a suffocating defense that is allowing just 56.2 points per game on 41.0 percent shooting overall including a miniscule 52.8 points per contest on 38.6 percent shooting here at home. Wisconsin is ranked fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency according to the Pomeroy Ratings, but unlike past years, they also rank 16 in offensive efficiency, making them a tough team to beat, particularly at Kohl.
Now the Illini are 16-8 themselves, but while they rank a very good 54 overall according to Pomeroy, that is still a far cry from the lofty Pomeroy ranking of number four for the Badgers. Illinois has lost by double-digits in each of their last four meetings with Wisconsin away from Champaign, and this is now the best Badger team during that time.
The bottom line here is that Wisconsin looks like a great darkhorse right now to reach the Final Four this season, and we look for the Badgers to drive that point home with another authoritative home win.
Pick: Wisconsin -9
EZWINNERS
New Jersey Nets +16
The lowly Nets have covered the spread in both meetings with the Cavaliers this season and I expect them to keep this game within the number as well. Cleveland is coming off of a tough win against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden and they have a game with Orlando up next. This is a great spot for the Nets to catch the Cavs going through the motions. New Jersey has been a good bet lately as they are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games and New Jersey is 12-3 against the spread in the last 15 trips to Cleveland. Take the points.