Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 10

Rob Vinciletti

Mavericks vs. Pistons
Play: Over 182.5 P

This game fits a nice totals system that has cashed 13 of 16 times. What we want to do is play the Over for rested road favorites of 5 or more that scored 90 or more as a home favorite of 10 or more and are facing an opponent that scored 80 or less as a road last out. The Mavs are off a home win last out and take on the Pistons who were mauled by the Bulls last night scoring just 68 points. The Pistons have gone over in 10 of their last 11 home games when the total is 180 to 185 and the Mavericks have flown over in 14 of their last 20 vs Central Division teams. In the series 3 of the last 4 have gone over the total. Look for this one to go Over as well.

Ben Burns

Red Wings @ Islanders
PICK: Under 5.5

The Islanders are off three consecutive 'overs.' That doesn't mean we need to expect another one tonight. Indeed, the 'under' is actually 3-0 the last three times that they were in that spot.

A closer look reveals that all three of the Isles' recent 'overs' have been played on the road. They're back on Long Island tonight. Note that each of the Isles last two games here have fallen below the total.

Off a 3-2 win at Chicago, the Wings are wrapping up a road trip here. With Sunday's result, the 'under' is now 12-7 in their road games which had an O/U line of 5.5.

Six of the Wings' last eight games have produced five or fewer combined goals. I feel this one has a solid shot at doing the same. Consider the Under.

Jim Feist

Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Toronto Raptors +1½

Toronto has actually been better on the road than at home and the Raptors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Then there are the winless Wizards. Who wants to back them? The Wizards are 19-39 ATS in their last 58 games as a favorite. Raptors are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Washington and the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Play Toronto!

Larry Ness

Miami Florida vs North Carolina
Pick: Miami Florida

North Carolina has won eight straight (all at home) since falling at then-No. 1 Kentucky on December 3 by just a single point. Each of its last six wins have come by at least 15 points, as the Tar Heels enter this game 11-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents on average 91.5-to-64.4 PPG. North Carolina owns a 27-game winning streak at the Dean E. Smith Center but while Miami-Fla is not known as much of a road team, I believe the Hurricanes can keep it close in this one. In two meetings with the Tar Heels last season, Miami lost at home 74-71 and then in the ACC tourney, just 61-59. The Tar heels own a devastating frontcourt with Barnes (17.6-4.8) plus the two big men, Henson (14.9-9.9) and Zeller (14.3-8.8). PG Marshall (5.4-10.1 APG) runs the show at the point and is joined by Strickland in the starting backcourt. Key reserves are guard Bullock (8.9) plus freshman guard Hairston (8.2) and forward McAdoo (6.2-4.2).The 'Canes have a pair of big men in the 6-10 Johnson (10.-7.0) plus 6-11 Florida transfer Kadji (10.9-5.6), who can compete vs the Tar Heels inside (note: Kadji has averaged 16.8 PPG on 60.7 percent shooting over six straight starts). The perimeter game is solid with Grant (13.9), Scott (13.2-4.4), Trey Jones (7.9-4.4), Larkin (8.2) and now, even DeQuan Jones, who was thought to be ineligible all season but joined team post-Jan 1. Note that in last year's game in South Florida, the Tar Heels needed to rally from a 19-point deficit in the second half, to win by just three points. Yes, North Carolina has won EIGHT straight over the Hurricanes but the last four meetings have been decided by three, two, six and four points! Take the points.

Dave Cokin

Florida State vs Virginia Tech
Pick: Virginia Tech

Both teams are off bad games, but Florida State looks to have some issues right now. Seth Greenberg ripped his troops for a lack of focus after the loss to Wake Forest, so I'd look for a better effort from the Hokies here. I'll give the nod to Virginia Tech to get the win by enough to cover.

SPORTS WAGERS

New Jersey -101 over CALGARY

In terms of value, no other team on today’s board offers as much as the Devils do. Detroit is a -180 favorite on Long Island, Philly is a -160 chalk in Carolina and the Canucks, playing their third game in four days is –150 in Tampa Bay. Surely, this game is as big a mismatch as any of those three and if it's not, it sure is close. New Jersey remains hot with just one regulation loss (to the Bruins) in its last six games. They've won 11 of 16 games and they have as good a record as any team in the NHL over the past calender year. This is a Stanley Cup contender that plays hard every night. Meanwhile, the Flames have one win over their past six. That lone victory came against Minnesota, a club that has one win in its last 12 games. The Flames are not in the same class as the Devils, it’s as simple as that. This is true value and regardless of the outcome, we're undoubtedly going with the best of it here. Play: New Jersey -101 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

MONTREAL +101 over St. Louis

Lots of interest surrounding this game, as Jaroslav Halak returns to the city in which he was hailed a hero in Montreal's unlikely run to the conference finals two seasons ago. He may even get a hero's welcome from Habs’ fans. When the Canadiens management opted to sign Carey Price over Halak, the fans went into an uproar over that decision. As it turns out, it was the correct decision because Carey Price is one of the top five goaltenders in the league while Halak has become Brian Elliott's backup. The Blues come in here with a great overall record but on the road, they're two games under .500. They've won three in a row but all those were at home. Away from the Scottrade Center, the Blues have lost five of their last six. The Canadiens have won two in a row and scored 10 goals in doing so. They also have a recent six-goal outburst against Ottawa. Halak's nerves could get the best of him here. He's been given this start as a courtesy because he wants it so badly. Price is likely to have the better game because he's the superior goaltender and he’ll treat this one no differently than others. The books have made the Blue Notes a small favorite here and when they entice you to bet that way, it's usually wise to go the other way Play: Montreal +101 (Risking 2 units).

Ottawa +130 over PITTSBURGH

Boy, the hockey gods really have it in for the Penguins. Last season was lost due to injuries to several key players and they just couldn't compensate for the loss of so much talent. Coach Dan Bylsma held it together the best he could, keeping the Penguins motivated even when their injury situation was grave. With the worst seemingly behind them, the Pens appeared geared up for a solid 2011-12 campaign. Pittsburgh got off to a good start and they were actually favored to win the Cup just six weeks ago. So much has changed since then. Sidney Crosby may not play again this year. James Neal is out with a broken foot. Jordan Staal is out 4-6 weeks with a knee injury. Craig Adams injured his right knee after colliding with teammates. Kris Letang is out with a concussion. The list goes on and on and the results are that Pittsburgh has lost four in a row and they've scored a paltry five goals over that span. Mentally, the Pens have to be down. They're going to need a few games to digest everything and get their composure back. Even then, it's still going to be tough to compete. Meanwhile, no team in the NHL is having as much fun as the Senators. Here's a team that was predicted to finish last by every so-called expert in the business. They're playing with house money and they're winning. The Sens are coming off a 6-4 victory over Philly. They've won five of six with only loss coming against those same Flyers. Ottawa is in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, just two points behind the Flyers and three behind the Bruins. Lastly, since being pulled on Dec. 27th vs Montreal, Craig Anderson is 5-0-1 with a .926 save pct and 2.37 GAA Play: Ottawa +130 (Risking 2 units).

MARC LAWRENCE

Florida State @ Virginia Tech
PICK: Florida State +4.5

We made mention two weeks ago that the Seminoles haven’t lived up to preseason expectations. And to be honest, not much has changed since as Leonard Hamilton’s boys proceeded to drop two straight before routing Auburn, closing out a ho-hum 9-5 non-conference slate. However, the Seminoles continue to remain one of the nation’s best defensive squads (no. 4 in DFG percentage, allowing foes to shoot only 34.9% from the floor) thanks to a fresh rotation that goes 11 deep. And Hamilton – the second longest tenured head coach in the ACC – is also one of college basketball’s best revenge seekers, posting a 90-65-4 ATS mark, including 64-43-2 ATS when taking points. Tonight’s payback stems from last year’s one-point ACC tourney knockout and figures to be sweet revenge for FSU on Tech’s floor as the Hokies are 7-14 ATS at home as dogs or favorites of less than 7 points versus winning opposition. Toss in a series history that has seen the Seminoles win 11 of 15 on the SU scoreboard and 10-5 on the ATS scorecard – including a perfect 3-0 ATS with revenge – and we see FSU, outright. We recommend a 1-unit play on Florida State.

SEAN MURPHY

Northern Iowa @ Creighton
PICK: Creighton -6.5

Now that college football is over, and the NFL is winding down, the PADDY WAGON is loaded up for a LEGENDARY basketball run! In fact, it's already begun, as Murph is riding an 18-7-1 college hoops run and a 10-3 NBA tear (including free plays)! Reserve your spot today - grab a monthly subscription and gain FULL ACCESS to all of Sean's winners for less than $17/day!

Any time I can catch Creighton coming off an ATS loss, I'm going to give the Blue Jays a long, hard look.

In this particular case, I believe they're deserving of a wager as they welcome Northern Iowa to Omaha.

UNI is coming off back-to-back wins, both SU and ATS, with both coming in blowout fashion, by 17 and 15-point margins. Keep in mind, those two victories came against Indiana State and Drake, two of the Missouri Valley Conference's weakest teams.

In fact, the Panthers have had only one 'step-up' game in MVC play - that coming on the road against Illinois State back on December 29th. They dropped a 65-61 decision as a 1.5-point favorite on that night.

Creighton jumped ahead early, but had to hang on for a 92-83 win at Bradley on Saturday. Note that the Blue Jays followed up their only other ATS loss in MVC play with arguably their best effort of the season - a 68-61 win as a 7-point underdog at Wichita State on New Year's Eve.

The Blue Jays have shown the ability to cover the number as a home favorite, going 3-1 ATS in that role this season, including a pair of wins over teams from major conferences, Nebraska and Northwestern.

After scoring 83 points in Saturday's win at Drake, I won't be surprised to see a letdown from UNI in this spot. Remember, the Panthers scored only 61, 65, and 65 points in their first three conference games. This will mark their toughest test to date, and I don't expect them to earn a passing grade.

Lenny Del Genio

Raptors at Wizards
Prediction: Under

The 0-8 Wizards are wretched. They just scored only 72 pts in a 21 pt home loss to Minnesota Sunday. They are 12-1 Under when coming off BB home losses. They are 18-2 Under the last two seasons when on a losing streak of 4+ games. Toronto has emerged as one of the better defensive teams in the Eastern Conference, holding their last four opponents all under 100 points.

Andre Gomes

Chicago Bulls -6.5

Projected line: Chicago by 10 points

Minnesota will play today their back to back to back at home after the first two games being on the road. The Wolves are clearly looking dead tired right now. Even though they had a blowout win at Washington last Sunday, head coach Rick Adelman didn't rest their players and Love played 41 minutes, Rubio 30 minutes, Williams 31 minutes and Ellington 34 minutes. What happened yesterday at Toronto was that Minnesota basically had no legs. If it wasn't for the foul troubles of Toronto that originated 33 FT for Minnesota and the Wolves would have been heavily blownout on that game. Note that Minnesota shot just 33,8% FG, but most importantly, they shot 12-30 FG at the rim and 3-12 FG from 3-9 feet! Basically, Minnesota couldn't score near the basket! Love shot 0-6 FG at the rim, but still played 36 minutes!

For tonight, Minnesota couldn't be facing an worse opponent than Chicago. The Bulls are coming from a normal win at home against Detroit, where they had a lockdown on defense and their opportunistic offense was enough to blowout Detroit, as predicted on my play. Head coach Tom Thibodeau was able to rotate the team without problems during the game. Matchup wise, Minnesota's offense would be in huge problems, even if this wasn't a terrible physical spot for them. Kevin Love will have a physical battle with the Bulls terrific physical frontline and this will be highly problematic for him. Even though that he has been excellent in the perimeter, his lack of fresh legs for tonight will be a problem. Minnesota needs to score easy points near the basket, as they are highly inconsistent in the perimeter and when they can't do it, they heavily struggled, like it happened in Toronto last night. The bright spot of Minnesota's offense are the P&R Ball Handler plays with Ricky Rubio (#2 with 0.98 PPP), but with Rubio having a tough matchup against Rose, he will have to use a lot of energy and this will also be a problem for Minnesota, we are talking about a rookie playing 3 days in a row, which is a tremendous physical task for a young player like him.

On the other side, Chicago's offense has been very opportunistic and they are crushing their opponents when they don't defend in transition or in half court games, where they use their offensive rebounding and Derrick Rose to score points. Minnesota won't have the legs to handle the motor of Chicago and therefore, I expect an easy win for the Bulls in here and that's why I'll take Chicago tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

MINNESOTA +6½ over Chicago

Many are fading teams that are playing their third game in successive days and that's the situation here with the Timberwolves. They played in Washington on Sunday and in Toronto last night, thus setting up this difficult spot. With data showing that these situations are being faded, the result is an inflated number and you can up the inflation rate when popular teams like the Bulls are in the equation. Chicago won last night by 24 over the Pistons, which increases their stock as does its 8-2 record. What we're suggesting is that you're overpaying on the Bulls here and that's something that should be avoided. Chicago could definitely be caught napping here. They too, are in the midst of a heavy schedule that will see them play nine games in 12 nights. This is its fourth game in five nights and its fifth straight game in which they've had to board a plane and travel to its next destination. With both teams’ energy meters on low, expect a close, low-scoring affair and a possible upset. Play: Minnesota +6½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Houston -3 over CHARLOTTE

Both these teams have just two wins but the similarities end there. The schedule will help the Bobcats steal a few wins this season against tired opponents but their talent deficit is daunting. The 'Cats played last night in New York and played their hearts out in a four-point loss. They'll play their fourth game in five nights here and that's not a good situation for a team that has to catch an opponent at precisely the right time. Frankly, they couldn't have caught the Rockets at a worse time. Houston is talented but its schedule thus far has placed them in a bit of an early hole. They've already played in Orlando and in L.A. against both the Clippers and Lakers. They've also played the Thunder twice. With a 2-7 record and a game in San Antonio tomorrow, this really becomes the Rockets most important game of the young season. With that tough one on deck against the Spurs, a third win is vital here. With two full days off to prepare, expect this 43-win team from a season ago to get back on track against what one of the more beatable teams in the Association Play: Houston -3 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Southern Illinois +11 over MISSOURI STATE

Missouri State is 10-6 while the Salukis of Southern Illinois are just 5-10. That has factored into this number and so has the fact that the Bears have a notable road win against #21 Creighton. In reality, not a lot separates these two. The Bears rely heavily on Kyle Weems for points but after him, there's a dramatic dropoff. That could be a problem here as the Salukis come in shooting hot from the floor. They've won two of their past three games and averaged 77 points per game over that span. The Salukis are also getting outstanding help from their bench, which has outscored the opposition's bench over the past 10 games by a count of 302-189. At worst, SIU will have a chance for a backdoor cover should they fall behind by more than 11. However, we certainly don't expect that, as we anticipate them hanging around all night and keeping this one well within range against this familiar foe. Play: #563 Southern Illinois +11 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

We're also playing the following games:

PROVIDENCE +8½ over Louisville
Play: Providence +8½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Florida State +166/+4 over VIRGINIA TECH
Play: Florida St +166 (Risking 1 unit) Play: Florida St +4 (Risking 1.03 units to win 1).

Jack Jones

Dallas Mavericks -6

The Dallas Mavericks have finally come to life over the last week. This team started slow as they lacked motivation in the early going after winning the NBA Finals last season. But it looks like the Mavs are back to being hungry and making a run at a repeat.

Dallas has won three of their last four with blowout wins over OKC by 13, Phoenix by 9 and New Orleans by 15. Now they take on a Detroit Pistons team that is just 2-7 on the season and hurting. The Pistons are one of the worst teams in the league this year, and their numbers show it.

Detroit is scoring just 82.4 points/game this season while allowing 94.2 points/game, getting outscored by a whopping 11.8 points/game on average. The Pistons are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games while getting outscored by an average of 21.5 points/game. They lost all four of those contests by 16 points or more. Making matters more difficult for Detroit is the fact that this will be their 4th game in 5 days.

The Mavs are 24-8-2 ATS in their last 34 games overall, including 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Detroit is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Bet Dallas Tuesday.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Memphis Grizzlies +3½

Off back-to-back road losses to the Lakers and Jazz, and out to avenge a 3-point loss to the Thunder on Dec. 28, the Grizzlies will be lacking no motivation at home tonight. The Grizzlies will be without Zach Randolph and possibly Mike Conley, but they still have enough fire power to get the job done against an OKC squad that is fortunate to have 8 wins. Oklahoma City is 8-2 but could easily have a couple more losses. In fact, 4 of its wins have come by 4 points or less. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. The Grizzlies are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games following a loss, 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS loss, 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games, 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take the points.