DAVE COKIN
AIR FORCE AT UTAH STATE
PLAY: AIR FORCE +9.5
Tough start to the conference season for both Air Force and Utah State. The Falcons managed to get a win over lowly San Jose State, but have suffered subsequent losses to Wyoming and Nevada. The Aggies are in desperation mode at 0-3 with a near miss against San Diego State, but convincing defeats to Boise State and New Mexico.
First-year Utah State head coach Tim Duryea was dealt kind of a tough hand. Following the brilliant Stew Morrill wasn’t going to be easy, but things got much worse when David Collette decided to leave the program right before the start of the season. To suggest the Aggies had to alter their offense is an understatement. They’re now very reliant on outside shooting and when a team lives and dies by the three with no other consistent options, the results are generally going to be less than amazing.
Air Force has simply not been very good at anything offensively, which is perhaps a bit of a surprise. Not that the Falcons were going to be a scoring machine, but they really haven’t been running that Princeton-style offense very effectively.
Both the Falcons and Aggies own decent overall ledgers in terms of wins and losses, but now that they’re in league play, even in a down campaign for the MWC, each has already been exposed. It’s more than fair to declare that this is anything but a marquee matchup.
I know the Aggies are very hungry for a win, and they’re rightfully the favorite tonight. But a couple of indicators tell me this could be a competitive game. First off, Air Force actually grades out higher in head to head comparatives in categories that are key for me. Secondly, this is Utah State team could well be pressing right now, and sometimes first-year coaches have troubles getting the train back on the tracks.
My thoughts are that this has a good chance to be a reasonably tight basketball game and I’m catching a pretty generous bundle here with the visitors. I’ll therefore go ahead with the underdog call on Air Force plus the points.
Sleepyj
Detroit +6.5
I'll take a shot here with the Pistons tonight..Spurs coming off a road game last night in a win..Another road trip for the Spurs might be a tough spot here Vs. a good Detroit team....Detroit is a very good rebounding team and you need to be against the Spurs..I think this evens out the game here,,Spurs had a bit of a layup yesterday, but i think they will be fresh for this game..Pistons on defense have been tough this year all around..I think the Pistons can hang in this game and even win it tonight..Pistons have a ton of speed and the big man in Drummond in the middle..Not often would I play against the Spurs, but i like this spot here for Detroit...Spurs have won 8 straight games now and the Pistons have won 3 straight...Spurs will falter here sooner or later and i'm banking on it being tonight..This is a great test for the Pistons to measure up against one of the leagues best teams...Good teams step up at home Vs. top teams..i feel good about this one tonight..Reggie Jackson might have a big night tonight and carry the Pistons to a win....I'm throwing a few on the ML here as well.
Stephen Nover
Cavs vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +6
As good as the Cavaliers are - and I rank them only behind the Warriors and Spurs - they haven't been that strong on the road covering just 39 percent of their away games this season, including going 1-4-1 ATS during their past six.
Cleveland's road mark could get even worse by the end of the week. That's because the Cavaliers have to do the dreaded Texas Triangle facing the Mavericks tonight, Spurs on Thursday and Rockets Friday.
The Cavaliers are hot winning 13 of 15, including the past seven. Their last two victories, however, were against the Timberwolves and 76ers. This marks their fourth consecutive road game. LeBron James and Co. can't help but anticipate their upcoming nationally televised (TNT) game against San Antonio, which has yet to lose at home.
Dallas is having a better season than many perceived with a 22-16 record, which is the fifth-best mark in the Western Conference. The veteran-laden Mavericks have a lot of pride, are well-coached and healthy, which they haven't been much of the season. I don't see Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews, Chandler Parsons and underrated center Zaza Pachulia allowing themselves to be embarrassed at home.
The Mavericks concluded a three-game road trip with a victory against the Timberwolves this past Sunday. After this matchup, the Mavericks go back on the road for three more road contests starting Wednesday against Oklahoma City. That game will be followed by stops at Chicago and San Antonio. So this is a key spot for the Mavericks being their lone home matchup during a seven-game span.
Dallas has covered six of the past seven times when facing a foe with a winning percentage above .600. The Mavericks also are 8-2 during their last 10 games versus the Cavaliers, covering five of the past six meetings.
Jim Feist
Thunder vs. Wolves
Play: Thunder -11
The Thunder coming off a loss at Portland on Saturday, 115-110. The Thunder are the second highest scoring team in the NBA (108.9 ppg). OKC is tied for 7th in the NBA in 3-pt shooting percentage (36%). The Thunder are also the third best rebounding team in the NBA. Conversely, Minnesota is the 25th best rebounding team and 21st in scoring (98.6). Oklahoma City has covered five of the last seven meetings with Minnesota. We'll have to lay some points on the road here, but that shouldn't be an issue. Take Oklahoma City. Meanwhile, Minnesota has covered just seven of the 26 games. They are also just 14-36-1 ATS at home in their last 51 games.
Matt Fargo
Auburn vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt -15
Vanderbilt lost a tough game on Saturday as it led throughout the first three-quarters of the game but relinquished a lead in the second half and was unable to make a comeback. The Commodores are off to a very disappointing start at 8-7, including 0-3 in the conference, as they are coming off a 21-14 season and have four starters back and were picked to finish 2nd in the SEC. While the season is far from over, Vanderbilt cannot afford to go the wrong way and they need a big win to get the confidence back and here comes that game. Auburn is 1-4 on the road with the lone victory coming at Coastal Carolina by just three points and it is coming off a 15-point loss at Missouri. The Tigers have been picked to finish 12th in the 14-team SEC so blowout losses are far from surprising. This is the perfect team to come to town for Vanderbilt as the Commodores have won 10 straight games in this series as well as seven straight at home. Going back, the Tigers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Commodores are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400.
ARI ATARI
Predators vs. Blackhawks
Play: Blackhawks -131
Chicago is on fire and Patrick Kane is showing again why he isn't just the best American player in the NHL, but the best player, period. Kane has racked up 12 points in his last 7 games, the guy has the ability to change the game with one shift. Marian Hossa has appeared to have found his scoring touch, picking up 2 huge goals in their last contest and still playing an all around game that earns him a permanent spot on Jonathan Toews wing. The biggest questions for Chicago this season revolved around their defensemen and depth forwards and they've answered the bell. Of course it gets a lot easier when your goalie (Corey Crawford) decides to silence all the haters by turning into a top 5 goalie this season.
Chicago just seems to be able to get it done. That's not to say that Nashville can't play; they just haven't been playing all that well lately. Goals have always been hard to come by for the Preds, and the addition of Ryan Johansen finally gives GM David Poile the franchise center he has been looking for for nearly two decades. James Neal has one of the deadliest releases in the game and Filip Forsberg has turned in a decent year, albeit with not quite as big of an impact as his rookie campaign.
The real story for the Predators is their D-men, the emergence of Roman Josi, coupled with the steady play of Ekholm, Ellis, and Jackman has helped bail out Pekka Rinne, who at the half way mark, has turned in a pedestrian season. Opposing forwards still fear Shea Weber, but after watching Arizona rookie Anthony Duclair pull the Forsberg move out with Weber hacking his knee it looks like father time is catching up to the 10 million dollar man. The reality is that Chicago looks like a cup contender again, while Nashville is still just looking to hang tough in the toughest division in hockey.
ALEX SMART
Iowa State vs. Texas
Play: Iowa State -2
Texas(9-6,1-2) is 1-2 in Big 12 play this season and need this win against Iowa State (12-3,1-2) tonight badly ,as West Virginia and Kansas are on deck after this tilt. Unfortunately, you don't always get what you want. The Longhornes in 3 Big 12 games , have gone 18-72 from three point range, for a ugly 25 percent conversion rate and just 39.2% (FG). With that said, you can't expect to win vs a side like Iowa State if you cant shoot. Add to that the injury of their top inside force Cameron Ridley and you have a side that is at a disadvantage. I know the Horns pressure defense is tenacious, and bad shooting streaks can suddenly end . However despite of the possibilities and graphical probabilities it must be stated, that Iowa State will be extremely hungry themselves after a loss as favs to Baylor last time out in Ames and will primed to continue their recent domination of Texas that has seen them win three straight games in this series. Alot of question marks abound for both sides, but Im betting Iowa State despite of historically being a sub par road team, still holds the slight edge. Texas is 1-8 ATS L/9 at home vs a winning team with a win % .600 to .800. Texas 0-4 ATS L/4 . HC Prohms teams have done well covering 10 of 11 against undisciplined foul prone sides like, Texas that are called for 21 or more fouls per game winning SU by an average of 13.5 ppg.
JIMMY BOYD
Celtics +1
Boston is showing some great value here as a road dog against the Knicks. The Celtics have lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, but it's not like they haven't been close in their losses. All 5 defeats came by 9-points or less and they gave away their last game at Memphis, getting outscored 33-22 in the 4th quarter of a 3-point loss. New York on the other hand has won 4 of 5 and covered all 5 during this stretch.
All this adds up to the Knicks getting too much respect against a Celtics team they have struggled against. Boston won 100-91 at home back on 12/27 as a 8.5-point favorite. Their 4th straight win in the serious. Based off that line in the most recent matchup, the Celtics should be around a 5-point favorite here.
Celtics are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 as a road dog, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games when they come in having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, 13-1 ATS in their last 14 road games after allowing 100 or more points in 2 straight games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games when playing only their 2nd games in 5 days.
JESSE SCHULE
Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks -123
The Knickerbockers are a confident team coming into tonight's home game against Boston. New York has won four of it's last five overall, and three straight at home. The same can not be said for the Celtics, who have dropped three straight, and five of their last six. They've been held to an average of less than 95 points during their losing streak, and breaking out of an offensive slump on the road isn't going to be easy in the Big Apple. The Knicks have held opponents to 95.2 points per game in their last five. Kristaps Porzingis has been a monster in the paint. He's averaging two blocks per game, and he had a whopping five blocked shots in the win over Milwaukee on Sunday. He showed some scoring prowess in a 100-99 loss at San Antonio, totaling 28 points on 11-of-21 shooting, and he also had 11 rebounds in that game. The Knicks have covered the spread in five of their last six home games, and Carmelo Anthony scored 29 points the last time he faced the Celtics.
Mr. Vegas
Cleveland at Dallas
Play: Under
Cleveland is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, third in points allowed, 11th in field goal shooting defense. Cleveland is on an 8-3 run under the total and 8-2 under on the road. Dallas is on a 7-1 run under and the under is 16-5 in the Mavericks last 21 games playing on one days rest. And when they meet the under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
BRANDON SHIVELY
Northern Illinois vs. Toledo
Play: Over 145½
For years Northern Illinois has been a bottom feeder in the Mac and Toledo has been the top dog. This is not the case this season. Northern Illinois is led by 6’10 Croatian junior center Marin Maric who is averaging 14/9 hitting 52% of his FG’s and can step out and hit a 3 where he is 71%. SR G Baker is averaging 11 ppg and has a 2.5:1 turnover to assist ratio. 6’2 Combo Freshman Guard Wilson is averaging 11 ppg and hits 38% from behind the arc and junior guard Armstead is a double digit scorer as well. 5th year senior guard Chuks Iroegbu is a contributor for the Huskies as well. NIU are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall. They have scored 70+ in 8 of their last 9 and beat TOLEDO here 84-82 last season.
Toledo has a big of their own in 6’9 senior Nathan Boothe who is averaging 18/9 and has a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio and hits 41% from behind the arc and shoots 76% from the stripe. Their leading scorer is Jonathan Williams who is avg 19 ppg and hitting 38% from behind the arc. 6’3 sophomore guard Stuckey Mosley is avg 11 ppg and hitting 40% from behind the arc as well, while freshman guard Sanford is hitting 37% from behind the arc. Nathan Boothe plays an inside out game so if Northern Illinois doubles the Toledo Guards, Toledo will look to make them pay by hitting their outside jumpers.
Toledo has allowed 76, 87 and 73 their last 3. That was against worst offensive teams like Miami Ohio, Ball State, and Northern Kentucky. Northern Illinois has started off conference play scoring 80 points in both games vs. Eastern Michigan and Ohio.
TOL allows teams to shoot 38% from behind the arc and Northern Illinois allows teams to shoot 36% from the 3pt line with both hitting 37% from long range. The winner has finished with 80 and 84 points the last 2 meetings. The OVER is 4-0 the last four meetings. The OVER is 6-1-1 in Toledo's eight games this season when the total is set in the 140's. Look for a final score in the 83-77 range tonight.
Scott Rickenbach
Pelicans at Lakers
Pick: Under
The Pelicans game at LA against the Clippers on Sunday went over the total but that was because it went to overtime. New Orleans had another poor shooting night as the Pelicans have now shot 40% or less from the field in three straight games! The Lakers come into this game off of an unsightly 86-74 loss versus Utah and they are unlikely to get their offense back on track here in what should be an ugly game. The Lakers have stayed under the total in all three games this season where they were a home dog of 3 points or less. Overall this season the under has cashed in 11 of the Lakers 16 home games. The Pelicans, even with Sunday's over cashing in due to overtime, have still seen 16 of their 20 road games stay under the total this season. Also, 8 of the Pelicans 11 games against teams with a losing record this season have stayed under the total. Additionally, the under has cashed in 9 of 11 times this season when New Orleans is off of a game where they scored 105 points or more.
Ken Thomson
West Virginia +2.5
Always tough to go against this Kansas team, a team I fully expect to make the Sweet 16 and have an opportunity to win it all. Wayne Selden Jr. & Perry Ellis are both playing great ball for the Jayhawks and there are several other key cogs for Bill Self's #1 team. Meanwhile Bobby Huggins' Mountaineers are not the best shooting squad and hit only 32% behind the arc as a team. However West Virginia makes up for it in different areas of the game. Led by Jevon Carter, Tarik Phillip and Daxter Miles who have combined for 87 steals on the season, the Mountaineers average 11 steals per game. Led by Jonathan Holton (63) & Devin Williams (52) West Va. leads the nation in offensive rebounds with 11 per game. The full court pressure Huggy Bears applies against the Jayhawks will be the determining factor in this one. If the Mountaineers can come close to their season average on takeaways and crash the boards with authority there is no doubt West VA. can get the upset over Kansas. If they don't come close to their season average in either category they could also get crushed. I'll try West Virginia in the biggest game in Morgantown in a long time!
Alex Smith
New Jersey at St. Louis
Play: New Jersey +160
The New Jersey Devils continue their Midwest road trip on Tuesday with a contest against the struggling St. Louis Blues. The Devils picked up a 2-1 win on Sunday after losing their last three contests while the Blues picked up a 2-1 victory of their own over the Los Angeles Kings after dropping six of their last seven prior games. St. Louis is dealing with a handful of key injuries, most notably the loss of goaltender Jake Allen, who's out indefinitely with a leg injury and defenseman Jay Bouwmeester (concussion). Along with the previous injuries sustained by wingers Magnus Paajarvi, Jaden Schwartz, Steve Ott and defenseman Carl Gunnarson, the Blues have had to call up several young players from the Chicago Wolves (AHL). Both teams have struggled on offense as of late which is the reason for the total opening at 4.5. This is New Jersey's fourth time in the last five games with a 4.5 total due largely in part to the Devils scoring three or fewer goals in 15 of their last 16 games. In those four previous games, the Devils went 0-3-1 O/U and are currently on a 1-7-3 O/U run. St. Louis has scored three or fewer goals in 12 of its last 13 games and only managed 16 shots on net last game despite earning the win. St. Louis is in a potential vulnerable spot having returned home after a three-game road trip out West. And with goals expected to limited and plenty of defense, I see value with the underdog at the current price of +160.
Wunderdog
Cleveland vs. Dallas
Pick: Cleveland -5.5
Cleveland has won seven games in a row as the return of Kyrie Irving from an injury has returned the team to a prominent level on a consistent basis. The Cavaliers won its third straight road game 95-85 at Philadelphia on Sunday as LeBron James poured in 37 points while the entire team shot only 38.9 percent from the floor. James was 15-of-22 compared to 20-of-68 for his teammates. Kevin Love scored 15 points with 15 rebounds and J.R. Smith added 14 points. Dallas is home after a 2-1 road trip finishing with a 93-87 win over hapless Minnesota on Sunday. Dirk Nowitski led the Mavs with 29 points and Zaza Pachulia grabbed 11 rebounds. Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against winning teams and 4-1 ATS its last five games versus teams with winning home records. The Mavericks are just 6-13-1 ATS against Eastern Conference teams. The last time these teams met on this court, the Cavaliers routed the Mavs 127-94 in March. James will get more help on the offensive end in tonight's matchup, so play the Cavaliers.