David Banks
Miami at Virginia
Pick: Virginia -4
After starting the season 12-1, the fourth-ranked Virginia Cavaliers suffered back-to-back upset losses first at the hands of in-state rival Virginia Tech and then to 10-5 Georgia Tech. Now, head coach Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers welcome a hot, 12th-ranked Miami squad to Richmond on Tuesday night.
If not for a one-point (78-77) loss to Nebraska, the Hurricanes would be unbeaten. A win at Virginia Tuesday would give Miami some early momentum as they head into the meat of the ACC schedule. Guard Sheldon McClellan makes the ‘Canes offense go. He leads the team in scoring averaging 15.9 points per game and shoots 54 percent from the field.
The Hurricanes may have trouble matching up with the very talented Cavaliers. Guard Malcolm Brogdon and forward Anthony Gill are both candidates for the conference’s player of the year award. Brogdon leads Virginia in scoring with 16.6 points per game while Gill adds 15.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, and shoots nearly 61 percent from the floor.
Bennett’s teams have long been known for their defense and the 2015-16 edition of the Cavaliers are no different. They are currently sixth in the nation giving up just over 60 points a game. If Miami can score closer to 70, they will have a shot. In their two recent losses, the Cavaliers gave up 70 to Virginia Tech and 68 to Georgia Tech.
Jeff Saad
San Antonio at Detroit
Play Detroit
The long road trip for San Antonio continues. They prefer a slower pace and run into a Detroit team that is strong up front, able to control the boards. The Pistons are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. And the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Miami, Fla. at VIRGINIA (-4)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The 13th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers host the eighth-ranked Miami Hurricanes tonight, and as much as I'd like to give the underdog some respect in this game, my free play is on the Cavaliers. I've seen Virginia play, and when this team gets hot, there is nothing that can stop it.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is going to be defense. Virginia, which is looking to snap a two-game losing skid, ranks 10th nationally in scoring defense (60.9 points per game) and 25th in turnover margin. This was a team that was ranked sixth preseason, and dropped out of the top 10 after six straight weeks. That defense will be revved up now that the Cavs are back home.
BOTTOM LINE is - The Cavaliers already have matched their loss total in ACC play from each of the last two seasons, so there is plenty of motivation to score this win over the Hurricanes. The Cavaliers have won 33 of their last 34 on their home wood, and Miami has lost its last three trips to Virginia.
3* VIRGINIA
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Pistons as the home dog over the Spurs.
I know San Antonio barely broke a sweat last night in their crush-job in Brooklyn, but Coach Pop's team did indeed play last night, and they do indeed have to travel to Detroit for tonight's game with no rest.
Detroit was idle last night, and their numbers look strong at home with 10 covers in their last 13 home dates. The Pistons are also 9-2 their last 11 when catching the points on their home hardwood.
Finally, the Pistons are 3-1 against the spread the past 4 series meetings, and 6-2 against the spread overall the past 8 times they have faced the Spurs.
All those positive Pistons trends I just listed have me liking the points and the home dog tonight.
4* DETROIT
Brad Wilton
Tuesday free play will be the Bulls as the small road favorite over the Bucks.
Second go round for these clubs, and it was Chicago with the 117-106 win back on January 5th in the Windy City.
That win and cover marked the 11th time in the last 14 games the Bulls have defeated the Bucks. Against the spread Chicago has covered the last pair, 5 of the past 7, and 7 of 10 overall against Milwaukee.
Chicago is looking to stop a two game losing streak, but they are facing an inconsistent Milwaukee team that has won just 3 times in their last 9 games overall.
I will take my chances and run with the Bulls minus the points.
2* CHICAGO
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Cleveland Cavs minus the points at the Dallas Mavs. At the time of this writing, the Cavs are laying six points in Vegas and offshore.
Cleveland is cruising along right now since Kyrie Irving came back, winning seven straight games as they get set to embark on their three-game Texas road trip. No team in the NBA has ever gone through the Texas three-step and won all three games and I don't believe the Cavs will as well.
But stop #1 in Dallas tonight will likely be the easiest of the three games. Even though Dallas has a better record than Houston, the third game is always the toughest and the Rockets still might be a better overall team than Dallas anyhow.
It's that middle game in San Antonio that might be the most daunting task, so they know they have to take care of business tonight in a winnable game.
Kyrie Irving is still battling through some rust, but since his return the Cavs are averaging 113.4 points per game and tonight they play a defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league.
Take Cleveland minus the points as your free play of the day.
3* CLEVELAND
RICKY TRAN
Spurs/Pistons Over 195½
The Spurs had no problem to see off the Nets at Brooklyn last night winning 106-79. They're in a look ahead spot though hosting the Cavs Thursday and I hvae a feeling that might show on defense. You can always count on the Spurs to put up points on the board and they've averaged 110.9 points during their current eight-game winning streak, but so can the Pistons who averages 104.9 points per game home at the Palace this season and 111.0 points per game over their last three. Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and 5-1 in the last 6 clashes in Detroit.
DAVE PRICE
New Orleans Pelicans -2.5
Any time you get the opportunity to fade the Los Angeles Lakers as either small underdogs or small favorites, it's worth a look. That's the case here tonight as the Lakers are only 2.5-point dogs to the New Orleans Pelicans. The Lakers are just 8-31 on the season and are easily the worst team in the Western Conference this year. The Pelicans are better than their 11-25 record, but injuries and a ton of close losses have done them in. They couldn't be more undervalued than they are right now, though. They just played in a 111-114 OT loss at the Clippers on Sunday. I like the fact that they have been able to stay in Los Angeles to play at Staples Center two nights later, and with no travel in between games, I expect them to come out with another great effort tonight. Los Angeles is 2-10 ATS after playing a game as a home dog this season. The Pelicans are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Lakers. The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Los Angeles.
BRANDON LEE
Providence +2.5
Creighton comes into this game off back-to-back wins that saw them beat Georgetown at home by 13 and Seton Hall on the road by 15. I believe it's created some great value here on Providence, who is going to be extremely motivated off a home loss to Marquette, which was just their second defeat of the season (other against Michigan State). Bluejays lost at home to Villanova by 14 earlier in conference play and have lost 10 straight against ranked opponents. Friars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against good teams that are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after failing to cover in their previous game.
JACK JONES
Maryland -2
The Maryland Terrapins are showing tremendous value today as only 2-point road favorites over the Michigan Wolverines. The Terrapins have proven that they are one of the best teams in the country en route to their 15-1 start with their only loss coming on the road at North Carolina.
But as much as this is a play on Maryland, it's equally a fade of Michigan. That's because the Wolverines are expected to be without their best player in Chris Lavert for a third consecutive game tonight. LeVert averages 17.6 points per game and has missed the last two contests.
Without LeVert, the Wolverines were crushed 70-87 at Purdue last time out. The y managed to shoot just 37.7% from the floor. While the Wolverines are 8-1 at home this season, they haven't played any worth opponent at home outside Xavier. And they were blown out by the Musketeers by a final of 70-86.
Maryland is 8-0 ATS in its last eight vs. teams who make 41% or more of their 3-point attempts after 15-plus games. The Terrapins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game. They only give up 31% shooting from 3-point range to opponents this season, and that will be key in them winning this game tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO -½ +119 over Nashville
Regulation only. The Blackhawks have won seven straight. Over that span they have scored three goals or more in every game while outscoring the opposition 29-15. Take away the five goals they allowed to Arizona in a 7-5 victory and those numbers become even more crooked. Chicago's top three lines are rolling and so is the entire squad. These two have met twice this year in a home and home series about a month ago, with each team winning at home. However, Nashville was the better team in both games and the Blackhawks are quite aware that they are going to have to step it up against this rival. In great form at the moment, we trust them to do just that but this one is once again all about fading the Predators with Pekka Rinne in goal.
There has been a lot of talk regarding the Preds lately after they made the biggest trade of the year so far. We all watch hockey and we all watch panels discuss the plight of this team. Nobody can figure out why the Preds are losing. They talk about Nashville's great defense and its great work ethic. They talk about how Nashville solved a problem up the middle by acquiring Ryan Johansen. Nobody wants to step out and say that Pekka Rinne is rat shit because that would be stepping out of line and may even appear foolish, especially now that Rinne has been named to the All-Star team. Before the season began on October 8, I appeared on Mike Tenay's sports betting podcast and suggested then that Rinne is finished and that Nashville would be a team to fade.
The Preds have lost three in a row and five of six. Since weakening their defense by dealing Seth Jones, the Preds have allowed nine goals against in two games and 13 goals against over their past three games. On the road, Nashville has two road victories over its last 14 road games. Rinne has posted save percentages of .824, .844 and .846 in three of his last four starts. Since November 21, Rinne has posted save percentages of .824, .852, .842, .867, .875, .861, .870, .880, .897, .844, .822, .824, .844 and .846 in 14 of 20 starts. Why nobody talks about that is as mind-boggling as the Steven Avery case. Give Nashville an adequate goaltender and they are a cup contender. Throw this stiff in net and its further proof that it is impossible to win consistently with weak goaltending. The players are very frustrated too. Now Rinne will face the hottest scoring team on ice right now and we'll continue to attempt to cashing in against him.
CHICAGO/Nashville Over 5
OT included. For the exact same reasons we're playing Chicago, we are playing this game over the number. One has to figure that if Nashville does happen to win this game, the chances of it going over the number are great. These Preds players have to have the mindset that they must score four or more to win because three or less just isn't getting it done.
ARIZONA -½ +118 over Edmonton
Regulation only. The Oilers are in trouble. It's almost as though they are waiting for Connor McDavid to return because they cannot hold down the fort any longer. Edmonton has lost two in a row, six of eight and nine of its past 12 games. Over those 12 games, the Oil has scored one goal or less six times and two or less nine times. Of the 30 teams in the NHL, no team has allowed more 5-on-5 goals than the Oilers and only the Senators have allowed more shots on net than Edmonton. When we look at the Oilers road numbers, things get even worse. The Oilers have five road wins in 21 games, which is the worst mark in the NHL. Over their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record, Edmonton has 10 wins and 41 losses. They have eight wins in 26 games against top-16 teams this season and three wins in 16 games against top-10 teams. For the Oilers, the All-Star break and the return of McDavid can't get here soon enough.
Arizona is a top-16 team right now. They're a game above .500 and the arrival of goaltender Louis Domingue has injected even more confidence into this well-coached and hungry host. The Coyotes have won three in a row and seven of their past 10 games. Domingue's lowest save percentage over his last five starts is .927 and he's allowed just three goals against over his last three starts. The Coyotes rank fifth in the league in goals for during 5-on-5 play. Even more notable is that the 'Yotes have drawn 40 power-play opportunities over their past 10 games, which is an indication of just how much havoc they are wreaking in the offensive end. Over that same span, Edmonton has drawn 24 penalties. Edmonton has five victories in their past 26 visits to the desert and we absolutely do not trust them to snap out of it here. The Coyotes cannot wait to get back on the ice while the Oil cannot wait to get off the ice.
SPORTS WAGERS
TEXAS +110 over Iowa State
Iowa State sports one of the nation’s most productive offenses, soaring in to the top-10 in points per game and field goal percentage. The Cyclones play a robust style of basketball, anchored by the accolades of a true playmaker in Georges Niang. However the Cyclones are not all sunshine and rainbows. Iowa State sports one of the worst defenses in the country where it is ranked 232nd in points surrendered among all Division I teams. Furthermore, the Cyclones are giving up a whopping 35% on opponents three-point field goals. Their offensive-focused style of play gives them market appeal but it doesn't give them a good chance to win against quality opponents. After starting off 9-0, the Cyclones have gone 3-3 in their last six including losing two of their last three. Two of ISU's losses were against premium Big 12 competition, which includes Oklahoma, who took a #1 ranked Kansas in to triple-overtime on the road and Baylor, who has become a regular tournament qualifier. However, ISU's out-of-conference schedule ranked 217th in the country. Outscoring cupcakes is not a proven formula that we want to get behind, as the Cyclones simply cannot get away with their flaunty schematics against quality outfits like Texas like they did against the likes of Buffalo, North Dakota State, Chattanooga, Chicago State, Coppin State or Arkansas-Pine Bluff among others. We wouldn’t expect a different result to take shape on the road at Texas.
The Longhorns took this visitor to the wire in their last meeting in 2015, losing by just a basket in a 69-67 thriller. Let us point out that Iowa State has tossed up several duds in both the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments in recent years despite optimistic expectations. Why? Because Iowa State does not fare well when it’s forced to play basketball where every point and possession counts. Texas is 7-1 at home on the year and they have been able to stymie opponent’s field goals by holding the opposition to just 39.6% on the season despite a 9-6 record. This tells us one thing. It tells us that Texas is formidable at home against any opponent and they have lost many games they could have won. That was evident in Texas’ recent losses to UConn, TCU and Texas Tech, as the 'Horns lost by a combined 14 points in those three defeats. This is a Longhorns squad whose out-of-conference schedule ranked 81st in the country and whose overall strength of schedule ranks 27th. Having lost three of its last four and sitting at 9-6 overall and 1-2 in the conference, Texas' stock is low and that makes us instant buyers on this very talented group. Iowa State is ranked 17th in the country and they are just a 2-point road favorite against an unranked foe. If you are viewing the Cyclones as a gift, we urge you to rethink your position and pay more attention to what the oddsmakers are telling us here. Texas outright is the call.
Big Al
Nashville vs. Chicago
Pick Over
After scoring three goals in four straight games (all wins), the Blackhawks exploded on Sunday for six goals at home against the Avalanche. They're back in Chicago again tonight going for win number eight in a row against the Predators. After allowing fifteen goals in four straight games - three of them losses - the Preds decided to give #1 goalie Pekka Rinne a rest on Saturday against the Coyotes in Arizona. But with back-up Carter Hutton in goal Nashville's offense sputtered again and they were shut out 4-0 while managing only 26 shots on goal after registering just 22 the game before - a 5-3 loss in Denver. Rinne will be back in goal tonight and unfortunately the now 33-year-old has taken a step backwards this season after an All-Star campaign in 2014-2015. Rinne has seen his goals-against increase from 2.18 to 2.48 while his Saves Percentage has gone from .923 to .906 and he leads the league with 13 losses.
Power Sports
Providence vs. Creighton
Pick: Providence
This is one where we can take advantage of a little "recency bias," meaning each team's previous result. Providence is off a loss, and a surprising one at that, to Marquette. Meanwhile, Creighton pulled a minor upset at Seton Hall over the weekend. I'd recommend taking the points here as the underdog is the better team.
Things had been going great for Providence before they lost outright (as 10-pt favorites) to Marquette exactly one week ago. The final score was 65-64, so it's not like there's too much to get upset about here and with a full week to prepare, a bounce back seems likely. The Friars' only other loss this year came at the hands of Michigan State. They've done quite well as dogs the L3 seasons (21-11 ATS) including a 3-1 ATS mark so far this season.
Creighton has won B2B games and five of their last six (only loss to Villanova), but I'm not yet sold on the Blue Jays. Sure, they come in averaging 90.0 PPG at home, but that includes a couple of 100+ pt efforts against Coppin State and North Texas. Providence will be the best defensive team that they have faced as their opponents are making just 17.1 percent from three-point range here in Big East play. The Friars have won four of five meetings as conference rivals.
Harry Bondi
DALLAS +6 over Cleveland
Big-time flat spot for Lebron and the Cavs here tonight as they play their fourth road game in six days and have a date at San Antonio on deck. The Mavs are as healthy as they have been all season and have had success in the series covering five of the last six. Dallas is rarely a home dog in this range (between 3 and 7 points) but over the last three years they have gone 5-1 ATS in this situation. Take the home dog!